Greinke Part II?

[splitterpfj]

Zack Greinke's contract is complex, and for huge money, hence, AZ has talked about dealing him.

 

Salary structure: 2016:31M, 2017:31M, 2018:31M, 2019:31.5M, 2020:32M, 2021:$32M

 

Zack signed for 206.5 million, taking him through the 2021 season - part of that was an 18M signing bonus, paid in installments, to date, 6M of that has been paid. Some of the money is deferred, ($10M each in 2016-18, $10.5M in 2019, $11M each in 2020-21), paid in installments of $12.5M each 11/1, 2022-26. If traded, Zack gets an additional 2M.

 

There is a no-trade, to 15 teams, I have no idea if the Brewers are on the list.

 

Zack is 34 now, he is signed through age 37, he will turn 38 during he 2021 postseason.

 

What would you give bring Greinke back to the Brewers? Be emotional, or be logical, but be honest .... in terms of players, and dollars, what deal would you make?

 

EDIT: Spitter, I noticed you had Greinke's 2021 salary as $2M. If corrected it to $32M.

[pacopete4]

I honestly don’t even think it’s realistic.

[splitterpfj]

I honestly don’t even think it’s realistic.

 

It may not be, but what would you give to get it done?

[KeithStone53151]

It's just too much money, a contract we can't afford. I don't know that I'd want to make the deal if he was 29, much less 34. But for arguments sake I'll put together my thought on a package.

 

Arizona isn't going to just give him away to get the contract off the books. For me to consider it on the Brewers side, maybe they eat all money that doesn't involve us paying $20-25 million/year for the next 4 years with no responsibility for deferrals. We give up Peralta, ponce/bickford, 2 lower level flier types. That still seems like an overpay for us, and I'm not sure either team takes that.

 

I highly doubt we would be on Greinke's no trade list. Especially with the team we are putting together.

[82brewcrew82]

Coulter and Broxton for Greinke, Pavin Smith, Duplantier and 35M. Honestly, I have no idea.

[KCBrewerfan34]

The D-backs would have to throw in 10-13 million per year but I’m not giving a big package and taking on the money.

[brewcrewdue80]

Grienke plus 100mil for Broxton.

Grienke costs far too much for worse positives than signing Darvis to what he's asking

[splitterpfj]

If I did the math right, after adding the 2M Greinke gets if traded, his money owed would stand at 160.5M, and he's signed for four years.

 

So, at this point, how much are you willing to pay per year, to add Greinke for the next four years? If the DBacks took half the money, the Brewers have Greinke at 20M per year (yes, they'd have to sort out the deferrals, etc, to make the annual budgets work).

 

What's your number to do it - Brewers pick up 80M? 100M? 60M? Keep in mind, the less money the Brewers pay, the better the talent needs to get, going to AZ. What are you willing to do, in dollars, and then in players, to get it done?

[82brewcrew82]

If I did the math right, after adding the 2M Greinke gets if traded, his money owed would stand at 160.5M, and he's signed for four years.

 

So, at this point, how much are you willing to pay per year, to add Greinke for the next four years? If the DBacks took half the money, the Brewers have Greinke at 20M per year (yes, they'd have to sort out the deferrals, etc, to make the annual budgets work).

 

What's your number to do it - Brewers pick up 80M? 100M? 60M? Keep in mind, the less money the Brewers pay, the better the talent needs to get, going to AZ. What are you willing to do, in dollars, and then in players, to get it done?

That's the thing, I wouldn't do anything to get that done. I'm OK with an aging Braun and what will probably a less than ideal back end to the Cain contract. No way do I take on that contract to and no way do I give up the prospects to have the cost mitigated enough to make it worth it.

[splitterpfj]

I remember thinking AZ gave Greinke a horrible contract at the time - that's exactly what it is, a truly horrible contract.

 

I won't rule Greinke out, simply because I believe the Brewers are turning over every possible stone, but AZ would have to be paying a great deal of the money. If I'm them, I get out of this deal right now, while Greinke is still desirable - make it a financial deal, and don't worry about who the Brewers send back.

 

My answer, I'll pay the man 60M over the next four years, AZ essentially gets a human being back, because it's called, a "trade."

[reillymcshane]

If I did the math right, after adding the 2M Greinke gets if traded, his money owed would stand at 160.5M, and he's signed for four years.

I think this is high.

 

2018: $31M salary + $3M signing bonus = $34M

2019: $31.5M salary + $3M signing bonus = $34.5M

2020: $32M salary + $3M signing bonus = $35M

2021: $32M salary + $3M signing bonus = $35M

TOTAL: $138.5M + $2M trade kicker = $140.5M

 

Am I missing something? I've generally heard that Greinke had $140M owed to him - so the $160M came as a surprise.

[pacopete4]

 

My answer, I'll pay the man 60M over the next four years, AZ essentially gets a human being back, because it's called, a "trade."

 

You asked what I’d give up and this would probably be it. I don’t think the Diamondbacks do it though.

[82brewcrew82]

I remember thinking AZ gave Greinke a horrible contract at the time - that's exactly what it is, a truly horrible contract.

 

I won't rule Greinke out, simply because I believe the Brewers are turning over every possible stone, but AZ would have to be paying a great deal of the money. If I'm them, I get out of this deal right now, while Greinke is still desirable - make it a financial deal, and don't worry about who the Brewers send back.

 

My answer, I'll pay the man 60M over the next four years, AZ essentially gets a human being back, because it's called, a "trade."

That means the crew is still spending 100M on a guy more likely to decline than maintain. I'd want more money or prospects back in that deal.

[splitterpfj]

If I did the math right, after adding the 2M Greinke gets if traded, his money owed would stand at 160.5M, and he's signed for four years.

I think this is high.

 

2018: $31M salary + $3M signing bonus = $34M

2019: $31.5M salary + $3M signing bonus = $34.5M

2020: $32M salary + $3M signing bonus = $35M

2021: $32M salary + $3M signing bonus = $35M

TOTAL: $138.5M + $2M trade kicker = $140.5M

 

Am I missing something? I've generally heard that Greinke had $140M owed to him - so the $160M came as a surprise.

 

I've got: 2018:31M, 2019:31.5M, 2020:32M, 2021:$32M = 126.5M

"Trade Bonus" 2M

Signing Bonus Deferred at 3M x 4 more years 12M

10M deferred for both 2016 and 2017 20M

 

I have 160.5M, is that right?

[reillymcshane]

I'm going to take this question with another question. If Greinke was a free agent right now - what would you pay him? More than Arrieta and Darvish? Less?

 

I'm going to guess that if Greinke was a free agent, he could get a 4-year $100M deal - even at his age. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I'm going to run with it.

 

If the Brewers wanted him and were willing to pay that price, I'd have them retain the deferred payments for themselves - which would take $42.5M from his salary (for us). That would take his payout down to $98M over four years.

 

We don't need to be paying tens of millions in deferred payments in the future.

 

In return, I'd be willing to give AZ a guy like Broxton or a mid-range prospect or two. Nothing particularly good.

 

Perhaps I'm misjudging the value of Greinke. Maybe he'd be worth more. Or less. But I think he'd be a great asset for the team - at least for a couple of years. Obviously, he's a good pitcher. But he's also a good fielder and top-notch hitter (at least as far as pitchers go). Those are nice things to have.

 

All this said, I just don't know if Arizona would deal Greinke. They are a borderline contender - and losing Greinke would really hurt them. I would think they would wait until the trade deadline and see where they are in the standings - and then make a move. If they move Zack now in a deal like I just said - they are eating $40M or more of salary - making his deal even worse. But maybe they want the financial flexibility really, really badly. If so, it just reinforces how dumb the signing was for them. They'd end up paying Greinke $100M or so for just two years of work. Again, I just don't see them doing that.

[reillymcshane]

If I did the math right, after adding the 2M Greinke gets if traded, his money owed would stand at 160.5M, and he's signed for four years.

I think this is high.

 

2018: $31M salary + $3M signing bonus = $34M

2019: $31.5M salary + $3M signing bonus = $34.5M

2020: $32M salary + $3M signing bonus = $35M

2021: $32M salary + $3M signing bonus = $35M

TOTAL: $138.5M + $2M trade kicker = $140.5M

 

Am I missing something? I've generally heard that Greinke had $140M owed to him - so the $160M came as a surprise.

 

I've got: 2018:31M, 2019:31.5M, 2020:32M, 2021:$32M = 126.5M

"Trade Bonus" 2M

Signing Bonus Deferred at 3M x 4 more years 12M

10M deferred for both 2016 and 2017 20M

 

I have 160.5M, is that right?

I see what you are saying.

 

I had not included the $20M in deferred money from 2016-17. That was part of his salary from that year - just paid later. That money is already earned and can't be lost in any fashion. The Diamondbacks are responsible for that chunk of change because he earned it in the years employed by them. So if Arizona traded him today (no money involved), they would be responsible for the $20M in deferred payments that were earned in 2016-17. The team acquiring Greinke would be responsible for the deferred payments only earned in the years he played for them. It's not as if the last man holding the contract is responsible for all of the deferred payments.

 

And I don't think you can negotiate monies that have already been earned. Meaning I don't think Arizona could say something like, "Hey, we'll include Player A and B if you pick up deferred payments Zack is due for the time he pitched with us in 2016 and 2017.

 

I think I am right about this stuff - but I'm not positive.

[superfly]

Honestly? I wouldn't take him unless he was nearly free. I have nightmares just thinking about taking on a 34 year old pitcher with that kind of contract and mileage.

[ougiqbxy]

I'd pick up $90 million of his salary and trade Brett Phillips, a low level flyer, and anything we don't necessarily need from the 40 man roster, i.e. Bandy or Susac, maybe Drake.

[beekay414]

I wouldn't touch that contract even if they attached Pavin Smith and Jon Duplantier.

[Warning Track Power]

If we’re committed to spending serious money on a SP, I would rather save the farm and overpay Arrieta. Trading anything of value for Greinke when Arrieta is free allows you to move those pieces for other needs (RP).

[TURBO]

If we’re committed to spending serious money on a SP, I would rather save the farm and overpay DARVISH. Trading anything of value for Greinke when Arrieta is free allows you to move those pieces for other needs (RP).

 

I agree except for the one change I made above.

[anglotiger]

Santana and perhaps a lottery ticket or two for Grienke, with the Brewers only picking up $80M of that contract.

 

And, unless Arizona sees themselves contending in the next year or two, or thinks that they can get better players or a sucker to pick up more of that cash, they should jump at the chance to get a good bat (at a position of need), while saving $80M over the next four years... of course, I fully admit that I may have no idea what I'm talking about...

[Roderick]

Santana and perhaps a lottery ticket or two for Grienke, with the Brewers only picking up $80M of that contract.

 

And, unless Arizona sees themselves contending in the next year or two, or thinks that they can get better players or a sucker to pick up more of that cash, they should jump at the chance to get a good bat (at a position of need), while saving $80M over the next four years... of course, I fully admit that I may have no idea what I'm talking about...

 

I assume Greinke would get 4 years and $100M if a free agent today (from someone - not me). So you are in essence selling Santana and lottery tickets for $20M. Yeah, I would not do this.

 

I would give the Diamondbacks, a #20-30 prospect if they paid everything above $75M. Anything above that price, and I would just take that money and use it towards any of the free agents. To my memory, Greinke had the benefit of lots of offense when he pitched for the Brewers the first time, so unless he promised to bring that luck again......

[Brew Crew Buster]

This is perhaps the worse written contract in MLB: (From Baseball Prospectus)

 

$18M signing bonus (paid in $3M installments each 5/31, 2016-21)

•16:$31M, 17:$31M, 18:$31M, 19:$31.5M, 20:$32M, 21:$32M

•total of $62.5M in salary is deferred ($10M each in 2016-18, $10.5M in 2019, $11M each in 2020-21), to be paid in five installments of $12.5M each 11/1, 2022-26

 

The only way the Brewers should take this is if the Diamondbacks take all of the deferred $$ and signing bonus paid in each year leaving the Brewers with about $20 to $21M a year through 2021. And even then they should take it in a trade for Corey Ray.

 

This contract is exactly the reason the free agent market is so slow this year. No one will give Darvish a contract like this because it is just stupid to take this type of a chance on a pitcher in his mid-thirties. And yet, because some team has been this stupid, the agents keep holding out.

[StearnsFTW]

Broxton for Greinke and we pay him $75,000,000 for 4 years. I'd be great with that.