The likely large window that has flung open!!

[gebc1997]

With research, I truly believe the Brewers are entering a large 4-5 year window for playoff appearances and success. The team has only a few minor players who they control for less than 2 years ( sogard, Chacin, Logan, Vogt, etc...) and they have a large amount that they control for 3-6 years.

 

6 years:

 

Josh Hader

Brett Phillips

Brent Suter

Brandon Woodruff

Taylor Williams

 

5 years:

 

Christian Yelich

Lorenzo Cain

Keon Broxton

Orlando Arcia

Jacob Barnes

Jesus Aguilar

 

4 years:

 

Eric Thames

Ryan Braun

Corey Knebel

Zach Davies

Travis Shaw

Domingo Santana

Manny Piña

 

3 years:

 

Chase Anderson

Jimmy Nelson

Jonathan Villar

Hernan Perez

 

The team also still has a very good to great crop of minor league options that can be seen to be ready to reasonably help between now and 2020

 

C-Nottingham

1b- Gatewood

2b -Hiura

2b/ss - Dubon

3b -Erceg

OF - Ray

Stokes

Grisham

SP- Burnes

Ortiz

Peralta

Wilkerson

RP - Houser

Lopez

Derby

Bickford

 

 

That's 38 players by my count who can be very helpful in many ways to put together a very consistent winning team.

[TJseven7]

I think a few of these years are off.

Pitching isn't strong enough yet.

 

I'm of the belief that the teams opened a wc window for the next 3 years. Pitching is needed to aim higher. A threat bat at 2b SS or C is needed to be special.

 

I think its a 3 year window. Biggest way to push that to 5. Burnes Ortiz Fperalta can extend the window. There are other options that could pan out but we need 1 more pen ace and 2 quality starters. Huira is the big offensive bonus who could cover what we will lose on offense as of year 3. Any of Lutz Ray Grisham Erceg would help too.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Sign an FA pitcher to stabilize top of the rotation. Risky, but agree their pitching isn't quite deep enough yet for a full run.

If he isn't enough to get a top flight controllable pitcher like Archer, trade Santana for a bounty of lower level prospects. Gives them a shot at another Yelich type trade in a year or two. It feels like upper level prospects are becoming the most highly priced relative to their value in the market.

Look for another diamond for the pen.

Look for a cheaper upgrade at 2B to get to Hiura.

 

Length of the window probably depends on if they deplete the system without replenishing it to get stronger in the short term or balance things out.

[3and2Fastball]

It always comes down to pitching. Just 3 years left of Anderson & Nelson. Zero pitchers on staff who look like they are legit TOR pitchers on a World Series team

 

I wouldn't say we've opened a window, yet, but we're getting closer.

 

If Hader or Burnes can become superstar aces, then, yes the window is open....

[tigerbrew]

Hopefully the Brewers can sign Darvish to a 4-5 year deal.

[stoutdude04]

Hopefully the Brewers can sign Darvish to a 4-5 year deal.

 

I think that ship has sailed.

 

I do appreciate the team that Stearns and Company have put together, but I still think we are competing for the Wild Card for this 'window'. The Cubs have a ton of talent yet, and unless injuries or massive regression happens they are still the top dog in the division.

[FVBrewerFan]

They signed Cain, traded for Yelich, sent off some top prospects, and they're likely not done. So the window has opened. Maybe it's just semantics, so put another way they want to seriously compete for the playoffs this year.

 

That said, the window could close at various point at least temporarily- as early as this season. I mean, they could trade for Kershaw and that still won't matter if Anderson and Nelson don't repeat last year's performance.

 

How long is the window open? Impossible to predict, just way too many variables.

[Lathund]

If the window gets long enough, you get to a point where it's no longer a window but you are in fact in a gazebo. How long that is may be up for debate though.

 

Anyway, I'd argue that the moves so far only really signal an ambition to start winning, not an all-in move. After all, it's been just one trade so far. We have a $90m payroll, all key players for 3 or more years, and still have several top 100 prospects and a very deep farm system. There are many ways to go from here. Sure, if we trade for Fulmer or Archer or someone similar, and give up the top prospects we'd have to for that to happen, then that signals a likely all-in approach and a clear window.

 

But say for example that we trade Santana and some minor pieces for a pitcher in the tier below those two in cost, and then sign Neil Walker to a reasonable deal. There's still a strong farm system to back up a strong major league club. If you take the approach to try to develop internal replacements (Which is a risk of course) then there need not be a window. It becomes a window if fewer than expected prospects pan out of course, but you at least have a chance to try extend it (To the point where it might as well not exist) if you so choose. It's not even an either-or approach, it's the balance between reducing risk (And shortening/creating a window) by trading 3 prospects for an established player, or taking a risk and going for sustained success by letting those 3 players develop.

 

The next couple of moves will tell us a lot about which approach the Brewers have in this.

[MKEguy]

As far as controllable talent and whatnot, I was thinking it’s a 5-6 year window.

 

A friend was arguing that the Cain / Yelich deals were bad because we have so much money tied up in an average OF. I disagree with the assessment that it’s average. Third year of this window, 2020, has the following, if I’m looking at contracts correctly.

 

$45M in the OF guys in 2020. That’s not the end of the world, still manageable for us. With some Stearns creativity and success from the young players as the get older, I’ll stick with a 5-6 year window.

 

Shaw - arb2

Arcia - arb1

Hader - pre arb

Woodruff - pre arb

Davies - arb 2

Piña - arb

Knebel - arb 2(?)

Nelson - arb (3?)

Huira - pre arb

Burnes - pre arb

Ortiz - pre arb

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

One thing that makes me optimistic, and some of this has been covered in the Yelich thread:

 

It seems to me that position player prospects are a little easier to pile up and project than pitching prospects. On the one hand, that means losing three guys like Harrison, Brinson, and Diaz is a big hit, but they are also known as gamble guys.

 

Plus, Corey Ray was a top 5 pick just a couple of years ago, and there are some good arms in the system. I also think there are lots of MLB contributors getting close to the big league level, and that's potentially huge. If there's a good success rate with guys like Phillips and Woodruff, you might buy a half-decade or so to stock up on and develop draft picks. Even if you're not trading talent for prospects and picking late, you may have bought enough time.

 

I think the state of the franchise is strong. I'm most optimistic about 18-20. Beyond that, we'll see. Here's hoping for a pennant and more.

[WestCoastCrew]

The window has opened earlier than expected, which is why Stearns got Yelich and Cain. The Brewers would be fine entering the season with the pitching they have, figuring Nelson comes back around June 1. Then, if needed, you can go out and get someone at the trade deadline.

 

As far as other prospects, I still hold out some hope for Nathan Kirby, but that is just me.

[lcbj68c]

Where do you see Gilbert Lara is the picture?

[TJseven7]

Where do you see Gilbert Lara is the picture?

 

An after thought lottery ticket. He's nothing until he shows something.

[TURBO]

Where do you see Gilbert Lara is the picture?

 

An after thought lottery ticket. He's nothing until he shows something.

 

Looked absolutely lost last year in Appleton. I had big hopes for him, but after watching him struggle, I no longer consider him a prospect. Wouldn't be surprised to see him out of baseball in 2 years or less.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Where do you see Gilbert Lara is the picture?

 

An after thought lottery ticket. He's nothing until he shows something.

 

Looked absolutely lost last year in Appleton. I had big hopes for him, but after watching him struggle, I no longer consider him a prospect. Wouldn't be surprised to see him out of baseball in 2 years or less.

 

In Lara's defense, both Harrison and Gatewood also looked incredibly lost during their first year in Appleton.

[JohnBriggs12]

Frankly I don't believe in "windows". Opportunities present themselves periodically and if you're prepared to take advantage like this year, you do it. It changes year to year if not month to month, not window to window. There's just too many variables that there's no control over. Balance is the key. Don't look too far ahead. Focus on developing as many players as possible to be assets down the road either as part of your team or trade pieces.

[TURBO]

 

In Lara's defense, both Harrison and Gatewood also looked incredibly lost during their first year in Appleton.

 

Difference being, Harrison and Gatewood at least showed promise at times, Lara just looked completely in over his head the entire time he was there.

[homer]

Frankly I don't believe in "windows". Opportunities present themselves periodically and if you're prepared to take advantage like this year, you do it. It changes year to year if not month to month, not window to window. There's just too many variables that there's no control over. Balance is the key. Don't look too far ahead. Focus on developing as many players as possible to be assets down the road either as part of your team or trade pieces.

 

You are describing windows of opportunity

[KeithStone53151]

Frankly I don't believe in "windows". Opportunities present themselves periodically and if you're prepared to take advantage like this year, you do it. It changes year to year if not month to month, not window to window. There's just too many variables that there's no control over. Balance is the key. Don't look too far ahead. Focus on developing as many players as possible to be assets down the road either as part of your team or trade pieces.

 

Windows get created when you part with young talent for proven talent. We used a lot of resources on Cain/Yelich. That's less resources we can use down the road on other things. Look at the Cubs, they had next to 0 chance at Yelich as their top prospect is worse than our 15th best prospect. Their payroll is getting stretched thin. They are in a window, it's up for debate when that window will close...but it will close and sooner than later. Maintaining a strong farm and being able to bring up good young players with 6 years of cheap control is critical to consistently competing.

[clancyphile]

The window has opened earlier than expected, which is why Stearns got Yelich and Cain. The Brewers would be fine entering the season with the pitching they have, figuring Nelson comes back around June 1. Then, if needed, you can go out and get someone at the trade deadline.

 

As far as other prospects, I still hold out some hope for Nathan Kirby, but that is just me.

 

I think this is what happened. The Brewers "rebuilt" earlier than expected. Part of it was they hit gold on some trades, part of it was finding some folks on the free-agent market who hit big. Some of it was a gem or two from the farm system.