Where is Domingo Going?

[adambr2]

Archer makes a lot of sense for the Brewers but I don't see the point of dealing Archer for Santana if your the Rays. Somebody sell me on Salazer cause I'm not seeing it

 

7th best xFIP in baseball of guys over 100 innings last year. 96 on his fastball and one of the games best changeups. 3 years of reasonable cost control.

 

Definitely some concerns, the low inning counts being the biggest. But he wouldn't be talked about for Santana if there weren't some concerns. The stuff is definitely there.

[mlloyd10]

Salazar would be our most talented SP - But major concerns

[brewerfan82]

For reference here are the ZiPS projects for our current starters, some of the trade targets that have been mentioned, and the big four FAs being talked about:

 

[pre]Player ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 ERA+

Nelson 3.74 3.79 9.1 3.1 115

Davies 4.05 4.06 6.8 2.6 108

Woodruff 4.17 4.17 8.2 3.2 103

Anderson 4.32 4.48 7.9 2.9 100

Suter 4.41 4.41 7.2 2.6 98

Chacin 4.77 4.68 7.5 3.8 90

 

Player ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 ERA+

Archer 3.27 3.10 10.6 2.7 125

Stroman 3.54 3.47 7.8 2.5 121

Salazar 3.60 3.48 11.2 3.5 117

Duffy 3.78 3.86 8.2 2.5 112

 

Player ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 ERA+

Darvish 3.24 3.22 11.0 2.7 127

Arrieta 3.53 4.16 8.7 2.9 123 ('17 numbers, '18 ZiPS not available yet)

Cobb 3.77 4.00 6.7 2.3 108

Lynn 3.82 4.25 7.7 3.7 106[/pre]

 

Pretty much any of those guys would bolster the top half of the rotation, but getting at least one of Darvish, Arrieta, Archer, or Stroman would be huge. Adding a 2nd guy from the rest of the group would be icing. Also, cross your fingers that Anderson's season last year was a turning point and not a fluke.

[tmwiese55]

I'm a White Sox fan. We don't necessarily need an OF, with Eloy and Robert coming, and Avi Garcia, Engel, Delmonico, and Rutherford all fringe options.

 

But humor me, the stove is cold right now in Chicago.

 

I actually was trying to think of other options besides ones mentioned already and thought of the Sox. For an upside cost controlled P it could be Rodon back to MKE. Stuff is great if he could just get his control down a bit and stay healthy. I think Santana should have more value than Rodon though so more would have to come back to MKE so I don't know where you go after that since Sox shouldn't be giving up prospects. Maybe also swap Thames for Abreu and then have us kick in a P prospect? Something of that nature. You could then turn around and flip Thames and Santana for more prospects?

[brewcrewdue80]

What is wrong with Duffy's contract?

 

Absolutely nothing. Contract peaks at $15.5 Million in his final year and, in 2017, he was a >3 win pitcher in less than 150 innings. Fangraphs had him at a $27 Million value in 2017 fwiw.

 

If we got Duffy and Merrifield for Santana, we'd win in a major way. That's 6.5 fWAR of production out of positions we need. I see very little shot that happens.

 

Okay He is paid 15mil avg for the next 4 years. He's never started more than 26 games in a season. Has a Career Fip of 3.98 and will be 29years old. Santana is Pre-Arb and 3 years of Arb equal 4 years of control. Younger with a higher ceiling.

 

Salazar has a Career 3.56 Fip having pitched 30games in a season is paid 5mil this season with 2 years of Arb remaining for age 29 and 30 seasons.

 

If we just moved payroll to 100mil Duffy moves it to 115mil (a little under)

 

I think Duffy is an identical clone to a Lohse/Garza someone who will not pitch well in a couple years(if you even consider him pitching well now)

 

Honestly, if Duffy had been a FA right now what are you giving him for a contract? MLBTR gives Cobb a clearly better SP a 4-70mil projection. The Cubs offered 3-42mil supposedly.

 

That is what is wrong with Duffy's contract-it's market value if not over. Santana's is clearly not at market value.

[pacopete4]

Marcus Stroman would be amazing. He would fit what Stearns has targeted as well being that he's have over 60% the past two seasons of a ground ball percentage. He would be one guy I would sell the farm for.

[TJseven7]

Marcus Stroman would be amazing. He would fit what Stearns has targeted as well being that he's have over 60% the past two seasons of a ground ball percentage. He would be one guy I would sell the farm for.

 

Well you'd certainly have to at this point. Burnes Ortiz Ray Ponce wouldn't stun me.

 

For people thinking cap. 16 mil straight on Cain has us at 92 mil. Most look to 110 as our cap.

[MillerParkSouth]

Does Santana get us Clevenger from Cleveland? That's the route I would go and keep the high end prospects.

[mlloyd10]

Does Santana get us Clevenger from Cleveland? That's the route I would go and keep the high end prospects.

 

Never like when your FIP is higher than your ERA

[rht]

I would think Clevinger would be untouchable if I'm the Indians unless they are starving of OF help with pop. 3+ WAR pitcher with 5 years of control left. We would have to give up alot more than Santana to obtain him.

[wallus]

What is wrong with Duffy's contract?

 

Absolutely nothing. Contract peaks at $15.5 Million in his final year and, in 2017, he was a >3 win pitcher in less than 150 innings. Fangraphs had him at a $27 Million value in 2017 fwiw.

 

If we got Duffy and Merrifield for Santana, we'd win in a major way. That's 6.5 fWAR of production out of positions we need. I see very little shot that happens.

 

Okay He is paid 15mil avg for the next 4 years. He's never started more than 26 games in a season. Has a Career Fip of 3.98 and will be 29years old. Santana is Pre-Arb and 3 years of Arb equal 4 years of control. Younger with a higher ceiling.

 

Salazar has a Career 3.56 Fip having pitched 30games in a season is paid 5mil this season with 2 years of Arb remaining for age 29 and 30 seasons.

 

If we just moved payroll to 100mil Duffy moves it to 115mil (a little under)

 

I think Duffy is an identical clone to a Lohse/Garza someone who will not pitch well in a couple years(if you even consider him pitching well now)

 

Honestly, if Duffy had been a FA right now what are you giving him for a contract? MLBTR gives Cobb a clearly better SP a 4-70mil projection. The Cubs offered 3-42mil supposedly.

 

That is what is wrong with Duffy's contract-it's market value if not over. Santana's is clearly not at market value.

 

Where are you getting that we are at 100mil right now?

[wallus]

Does Santana get us Clevenger from Cleveland? That's the route I would go and keep the high end prospects.

 

That would seem like a "buy high" move. I am sure our resident Cleveland fan will chime in saying he is untouchable.

[beekay414]

Okay He is paid 15mil avg for the next 4 years. He's never started more than 26 games in a season. Has a Career Fip of 3.98 and will be 29years old. Santana is Pre-Arb and 3 years of Arb equal 4 years of control. Younger with a higher ceiling.

 

Salazar has a Career 3.56 Fip having pitched 30games in a season is paid 5mil this season with 2 years of Arb remaining for age 29 and 30 seasons.

 

If we just moved payroll to 100mil Duffy moves it to 115mil (a little under)

 

I think Duffy is an identical clone to a Lohse/Garza someone who will not pitch well in a couple years(if you even consider him pitching well now)

 

Honestly, if Duffy had been a FA right now what are you giving him for a contract? MLBTR gives Cobb a clearly better SP a 4-70mil projection. The Cubs offered 3-42mil supposedly.

 

That is what is wrong with Duffy's contract-it's market value if not over. Santana's is clearly not at market value.

 

I wasn't comparing Duffy to Salazar so that's a wasted exercise on your part. I was simply saying there's nothing wrong with Duffy's contract. Obviously, anyone with half a brain would prefer the similar production for cheaper.

[beekay414]

Where are you getting that we are at 100mil right now?

 

I believe we're around $85 Million.

[brewcrewdue80]

Where are you getting that we are at 100mil right now?

 

I believe we're around $85 Million.

 

Memory mistake. I had figured 100million previously with the Marlins trade including Castro or Prado.

 

Yelich would move us to about 76 and 16mil AAV would hint us to be at 92mil with Cain's addition.

[TURBO]

viewtopic.php?f=63&t=36036

[And That]

Where are you getting that we are at 100mil right now?

 

I believe we're around $85 Million.

That's correct. I have the opening day payroll almost right at $85,000,000. Though that's without knowing Cain's actual 2018 salary and just using $16 million.

 

That does not include in-season costs, though. That's easily another $5 million.

[brewcrewdue80]

Okay He is paid 15mil avg for the next 4 years. He's never started more than 26 games in a season. Has a Career Fip of 3.98 and will be 29years old. Santana is Pre-Arb and 3 years of Arb equal 4 years of control. Younger with a higher ceiling.

 

Salazar has a Career 3.56 Fip having pitched 30games in a season is paid 5mil this season with 2 years of Arb remaining for age 29 and 30 seasons.

 

If we just moved payroll to 100mil Duffy moves it to 115mil (a little under)

 

I think Duffy is an identical clone to a Lohse/Garza someone who will not pitch well in a couple years(if you even consider him pitching well now)

 

Honestly, if Duffy had been a FA right now what are you giving him for a contract? MLBTR gives Cobb a clearly better SP a 4-70mil projection. The Cubs offered 3-42mil supposedly.

 

That is what is wrong with Duffy's contract-it's market value if not over. Santana's is clearly not at market value.

 

I wasn't comparing Duffy to Salazar so that's a wasted exercise on your part. I was simply saying there's nothing wrong with Duffy's contract. Obviously, anyone with half a brain would prefer the similar production for cheaper.

 

I believe a contract that is being paid what you'd expect to pay the player in FA shouldn't be targeted for trade when it's not going to be a contract dump type of trade. And being a Small Market makes it worse on an unproven full season guy to give up any value to acquire him. Santana=a lot of value.

 

We give up Freddy Peralta straight up for him, I'd be okay on Duffy. Any higher of value is not worth it. Peralta is pushing that envelope.

[KeithStone53151]

Where are you getting that we are at 100mil right now?

 

I believe we're around $85 Million.

That's correct. I have the opening day payroll almost right at $85,000,000. Though that's without knowing Cain's actual 2018 salary and just using $16 million.

 

That does not include in-season costs, though. That's easily another $5 million.

 

Are you counting all the min salaries? I have us around 92 million if you include gallardo, dropping him takes us to 90. That's relatively on par with what reilly posted in the payroll thread on the major league section.

 

It's not a huge difference, fact is we definitely have room to add payroll yet.

[Enscheff]

My guess:

 

Santana for Salazar

Prospects for Odorizzi

[TJseven7]

Yes but how much? 18 mil for 110? Or 33 mil for 125? Going up to 125 mil is game on!

[pacopete4]

Yes but how much? 18 mil for 110? Or 33 mil for 125? Going up to 125 mil is game on!

 

I posted this somewhere else but if they do what you want, going up to $125 allows them no flexibility. If there are holes in the roster come July, they are stuck. Is that something you want to see? I don't.

[brwrsfan]

I don't believe they'd be "stuck". They couldn't take any long term contracts on but if the Brewers are a legit WS contender come July, I think Mark would be ok taking on a contract for the remainder of the year..I mean, even the biggest contracts would only cost $7-8 million for the last two months of the season.

 

But we'd have a hard time moving forward, as the payroll can't likely go past that forever. And we'll have arby raises and things like that as well, without much money coming off the books in the next couple years (at least without trades).

[TJseven7]

Yes but how much? 18 mil for 110? Or 33 mil for 125? Going up to 125 mil is game on!

 

I posted this somewhere else but if they do what you want, going up to $125 allows them no flexibility. If there are holes in the roster come July, they are stuck. Is that something you want to see? I don't.

 

We don't know their number. I don't want to be frozen at the max, but we are coming off a few very cheap years. We just added what we'd likely have given Yu per year on Yelich and Cain. Do you think they sign Yu and stop? Wouldn't make any sense to. Just adding Yu leaves the offense considerably short.

 

More pospects wpuld hurt. Ray Burnes Ortiz are next in the que.

Santana would hurt.

More spendings going to hurt.

 

Its going to hurt and the teams still short a SP at minimum.

Limp the pen with williams houser fperalta as options... ok

Limp 2b with Villar Sogard Perez... ok

Limp 5 sp with Suter or Gallardo... not good.

[pacopete4]

Yes but how much? 18 mil for 110? Or 33 mil for 125? Going up to 125 mil is game on!

 

I posted this somewhere else but if they do what you want, going up to $125 allows them no flexibility. If there are holes in the roster come July, they are stuck. Is that something you want to see? I don't.

 

We don't know their number. I don't want to be frozen at the max, but we are coming off a few very cheap years. We just added what we'd likely have given Yu per year on Yelich and Cain. Do you think they sign Yu and stop? Wouldn't make any sense to. Just adding Yu leaves the offense considerably short.

 

I might be wrong, but I think it is pretty safe to say that they won't be entering the year at the $120-$130M mark. Like others have said, it's not that they couldn't do it but they will then be locked into guys and lose flexibility. They will have increases in wages again after this season. Guys will hopefully continue to perform at a higher level and then they will cost more. Financially, the Brewers still need to be smarter than 99% of the league. If we want to see the window really collapse, all it will take now is some really dumb signings of players.