Where is Domingo Going?

[brewcrewdue80]

I look at the Santana to TB situation asking for more in trade, like I do in Fantasy Baseball. Look, The Brewers have 6 standard OFs right now. Only 3 can start. And while you can say, that 4 can rotate and get enough PAs all around, that is false.

 

Yelich had 695 last season 156games.

Cain had 645 in 155 games.

Santana had 607 in 151 games.

 

That leaves 24 games to dish out to your 4th OF (Phillips had 37games and 98PAs last season)

 

What's Ryan Braun to do? Oh play 1b, something completely new to him. Sure, I'd expect he can do it(Lucroy and Catchers move their all the time) But in your 6 OF logjam, that means Braun in order to get 125-140 games, you aren't spreading that around to you Full Time Platoon at 1b last season with Thames/Aguilar. 8 Players 4 positions.

 

Let's solve this: Phillips and Broxton are going to be in AAA. Yes, no chance Phillips is on the team OD w/o injury to get him there.

Your OF 4 is only Santana, Cain, and Yelich. Braun rotates in vs Leftys maybe? Or he just plays 1b. Thames or Aguilar? Well the strong side of a platoon is a LHB so it has to be Thames.

 

Back to the fantasy side perspective: 3 players are out, if you can option them they'll just sit in AAA problem solved. If you can't, one of those 3 will be waived at some point. Potentially 2!

 

So of course there's the trade proposals to solve your 8 for 4 positions. Look I will give you 50 cents on the Dollar for this trade, or simply wait when inevitably you waive one of these 8 players. Or, go ahead and have 6 guys play 4spots and detriment your team with the missing Bullpen arm. It will happen. Enjoy a B2B 12innings games where you pitch Hernan Perez because you have no one else to use, and oops, you lost both games.

Now you react, because losing those two inevitable games pains you so much, you waive Thames, or Aguilar, or Broxton nothing in return....or you trade away Santana for 25cents on the dollar because he's OPS'ing in the 700s while on a 138 games started pace with all your forced shuffling just to get starts to Braun, Yelich, and Cain.

 

Stearns backed himself in a corner with Santana value. As it was, there weren't many teams aligned that even made sense dealing with to acquire something that helped the 2018 team. (The perceived trade rumors) Now, if he takes a prospect acquiring trade option besides the 2018 help only help, then Stearns hasn't backed himself as bad in to a corner as I think he has. Still, Santana isn't getting 110 pennies on the dollar or an even on the dollar value after Yelich/Cain. That day made Santana 10% at minimum less value to any other team's cost to acquire him.

 

Another scenario of hurt value to Santana. You solve by sending Broxton/Phillips to AAA. Cain is your starting CF who does a fine job. Cain runs in to the wall and hurts himself causing you to put Yelich in CF with Braun/Santana in corners(no Phillips or Broxton) Yelich goes on to misplay a fly ball and that misplay results in a lost game. Phillips makes that play easily. Broxton makes it 90% of the time. But they aren't your backups, Yelich is at CF.

 

You can play these scenarios out but no matter what a Forced move means all your pieces are worth less than they were previously.

[MillerParkSouth]

Broxton and Phillips can literally be optioned to AAA. Nobody of real value will be cut in the OF as a result of the Cain and Yellich acquisitions.

[pacopete4]

Broxton and Phillips can literally be optioned to AAA. Nobody of real value will be cut in the OF as a result of the Cain and Yellich acquisitions.

Exactly. No one will "force" Stearns to do diddly-pooh. We worry more than he is probably.

[tmwiese55]

And Broxton had his shot last year and proved he can't hack it. He's just a guy, nothing to be concerned with. Fine as a backup but he's the least of their worries right now. If somehow you end up with him as your 4th OF he's fine, but not a big deal either way and really you'd prefer him as your 5th so that he's not one injury away from being needed every day.

[FVBrewerFan]

Broxton and Phillips can literally be optioned to AAA. Nobody of real value will be cut in the OF as a result of the Cain and Yellich acquisitions.

Exactly. No one will "force" Stearns to do diddly-pooh. We worry more than he is probably.

 

Another way to put it. Would Stearns/CC PREFER to have Phillips as the 4th OF? Yes, I think they would. Do they NEED him to be right now? No. And I agree, Broxton isn't even a thought. If you can get a couple high ceiling lottery guys back, trade him. Otherwise, AAA is fine for him right now.

[CanOfCorn]

Has HH19 said anything about this? He had said there was a trade lined up with an AL team... My suspicion is that any trades or FA moves with regards to a Starting Pitcher would be completely on hold until Darvish signs. Why would a team make a trade before they know what other teams may be interested in their SP once Darvish signs with someone? Also, would we really be dead set on Darvish AND also make a trade for a starter? Seems like we'd be directly impeding the progress of a guy like Woodruff (unless he's also included in said trade).

 

 

I'm curious what HH19 has to say about the developments. I haven't kept up with all the forum topics so I may have missed a comment in another thread.

[pacopete4]

Broxton and Phillips can literally be optioned to AAA. Nobody of real value will be cut in the OF as a result of the Cain and Yellich acquisitions.

Exactly. No one will "force" Stearns to do diddly-pooh. We worry more than he is probably.

 

Another way to put it. Would Stearns/CC PREFER to have Phillips as the 4th OF? Yes, I think they would. Do they NEED him to be right now? No. And I agree, Broxton isn't even a thought. If you can get a couple high ceiling lottery guys back, trade him. Otherwise, AAA is fine for him right now.

It is definitely a game of chicken that we can win. Either we stash Phillips and Broxton in AAA or someone gets hurt in our OF and we have two great options to come up and fill in for that player. If other teams don't believe that we'll do that, well if I'm Stearns I just ignore it and stay the course.

[Patrick425]

Has HH19 said anything about this? He had said there was a trade lined up with an AL team... My suspicion is that any trades or FA moves with regards to a Starting Pitcher would be completely on hold until Darvish signs. Why would a team make a trade before they know what other teams may be interested in their SP once Darvish signs with someone? Also, would we really be dead set on Darvish AND also make a trade for a starter? Seems like we'd be directly impeding the progress of a guy like Woodruff (unless he's also included in said trade).

 

 

I'm curious what HH19 has to say about the developments. I haven't kept up with all the forum topics so I may have missed a comment in another thread.

 

If you can find one post from HH19 and then click on his name on the side, then click on "search users posts", you can pretty much find all of his posts.

[NievesNoNO]

I look at the Santana to TB situation asking for more in trade, like I do in Fantasy Baseball. Look, The Brewers have 6 standard OFs right now. Only 3 can start. And while you can say, that 4 can rotate and get enough PAs all around, that is false.

 

Yelich had 695 last season 156games.

Cain had 645 in 155 games.

Santana had 607 in 151 games.

 

.........................................

Stearns backed himself in a corner with Santana value. As it was, there weren't many teams aligned that even made sense dealing with to acquire something that helped the 2018 team. (The perceived trade rumors) Now, if he takes a prospect acquiring trade option besides the 2018 help only help, then Stearns hasn't backed himself as bad in to a corner as I think he has. Still, Santana isn't getting 110 pennies on the dollar or an even on the dollar value after Yelich/Cain. That day made Santana 10% at minimum less value to any other team's cost to acquire him.

 

...........................................

You can play these scenarios out but no matter what a Forced move means all your pieces are worth less than they were previously.

 

I'm not sure about being backed into a corner however I sure do agree that no matter how the Brewers spin it they have an OF roster crunch right now. The 4 starters they have are not platoon players. If they are then you're not maximizing value. They might claim "positive roster flexibility" but I'm of the opinion that the way they are situated right now is less flexible. I'm sure there's quite a few teams that would give solid value for Domingo; they just might need to accept prospects instead of MLB roster guys. I think they still can get even value, but I'd even be inclined to take less than even value if it was a trade to improve the current roster. Sometimes you don't have to "win" the trade and this is a situation that falls under that category for me.

[paul253]

Did you really just use 2011 and 2012 stats to draw a case on 2017-2018 Eric Thames? Come on, he hadn't played in MLB in 5 years and theoretically "found himself" overseas. Regardless if 2017 was outside the mean 2011-12 have zero impact on future performance IMO

 

For the record I was simply pointing out that Eric Thames doesn’t exactly have a track record of success either. I apologize for being unwilling to use his numbers in the Korean league or Japan or wherever he played before. People were acting as though Aguilars numbers were clearly a fluke and Thames numbers clearly weren’t. As someone else pointed out after his ridiculously hot April his numbers were actually pretty bad. But again, my decision is more based on his contract and likely higher return than anything. Freeing up the $12 million he is still owed (including buyout) could net us a significant piece or two.

 

My bad, I guess the notion of Braun being an everyday player is so unthinkable that it didn't even register that somebody wouldn't think they'd need another 1b who can OPS close to .900, at least against rhp's.

 

Unthinkable? From 2014-2016 he played in 135, 140, and 135 games respectively. One year in which he’s injured and “only” plays in 104 games and all of a sudden it’s unthinkable that he can be anything other than the right side of a platoon, even at a much less physically demanding position?

 

Broxton and Phillips can literally be optioned to AAA. Nobody of real value will be cut in the OF as a result of the Cain and Yellich acquisitions

 

My concern is more so that you’re putting together the roster more so out of inflexibility than anything. Yes you can stash Phillips and Broxton at CS but is that really what you wanted to do? Phillips is the ideal fourth outfielder. Great defense. Some power. Some contact. Can steal a base if needed. He’s proven himself on the minors. The last I want is for them to use up his remaining option simply because we have nowhere to put him, while either counting on Braun to both adequately handle first base AND slide back and forth between there and the outfield or counting on Eric Thames to play some outfield. Broxton too. Great defense. Good power. Can steal a base. Very inconsistent but playing in the minors certainly won’t help in trying to rebuild his value.

 

I also don’t think we should just demote Braun to a platoon role either. He’s still a very good hitter and then team is better when he’s in the lineup. He should have every opportunity to be an every day player, albeit with a few more scheduled off days then a younger guy.

 

It just seems to me that while we’ll “be ok” and “don’t have to” move Santana the roster kinda fits together better if he is moved.

[mrn1ceguy]

I look at the Santana to TB situation asking for more in trade, like I do in Fantasy Baseball. Look, The Brewers have 6 standard OFs right now. Only 3 can start. And while you can say, that 4 can rotate and get enough PAs all around, that is false.

 

Yelich had 695 last season 156games.

Cain had 645 in 155 games.

Santana had 607 in 151 games.

 

That leaves 24 games to dish out to your 4th OF (Phillips had 37games and 98PAs last season)

 

What's Ryan Braun to do? Oh play 1b, something completely new to him. Sure, I'd expect he can do it(Lucroy and Catchers move their all the time) But in your 6 OF logjam, that means Braun in order to get 125-140 games, you aren't spreading that around to you Full Time Platoon at 1b last season with Thames/Aguilar. 8 Players 4 positions.

 

Let's solve this: Phillips and Broxton are going to be in AAA. Yes, no chance Phillips is on the team OD w/o injury to get him there.

Your OF 4 is only Santana, Cain, and Yelich. Braun rotates in vs Leftys maybe? Or he just plays 1b. Thames or Aguilar? Well the strong side of a platoon is a LHB so it has to be Thames.

 

Back to the fantasy side perspective: 3 players are out, if you can option them they'll just sit in AAA problem solved. If you can't, one of those 3 will be waived at some point. Potentially 2!

 

So of course there's the trade proposals to solve your 8 for 4 positions. Look I will give you 50 cents on the Dollar for this trade, or simply wait when inevitably you waive one of these 8 players. Or, go ahead and have 6 guys play 4spots and detriment your team with the missing Bullpen arm. It will happen. Enjoy a B2B 12innings games where you pitch Hernan Perez because you have no one else to use, and oops, you lost both games.

Now you react, because losing those two inevitable games pains you so much, you waive Thames, or Aguilar, or Broxton nothing in return....or you trade away Santana for 25cents on the dollar because he's OPS'ing in the 700s while on a 138 games started pace with all your forced shuffling just to get starts to Braun, Yelich, and Cain.

 

Stearns backed himself in a corner with Santana value. As it was, there weren't many teams aligned that even made sense dealing with to acquire something that helped the 2018 team. (The perceived trade rumors) Now, if he takes a prospect acquiring trade option besides the 2018 help only help, then Stearns hasn't backed himself as bad in to a corner as I think he has. Still, Santana isn't getting 110 pennies on the dollar or an even on the dollar value after Yelich/Cain. That day made Santana 10% at minimum less value to any other team's cost to acquire him.

 

Another scenario of hurt value to Santana. You solve by sending Broxton/Phillips to AAA. Cain is your starting CF who does a fine job. Cain runs in to the wall and hurts himself causing you to put Yelich in CF with Braun/Santana in corners(no Phillips or Broxton) Yelich goes on to misplay a fly ball and that misplay results in a lost game. Phillips makes that play easily. Broxton makes it 90% of the time. But they aren't your backups, Yelich is at CF.

 

You can play these scenarios out but no matter what a Forced move means all your pieces are worth less than they were previously.

 

Here's how I do it:

 

LF: Yelich (130 games) / Braun (32 games)

CF: Cain (140 games) / (Yelich 22 games)

RF: Santana (152 games) / Cain (10 games)

1B: Braun (81 games) / Thames (81 games)

DH: Braun (10 games)

 

Outcome

Yelich: 152 starts, 10 games on the bench/dl

Cain: 150 starts, 12 games on the bench/dl

Santana: 152 starts, 10 games on the bench/dl

Braun: 123 starts, 38 games on the bench/dl

Thames: 81 starts, 81 games on the bench/dl

Phillips - to AAA

Brxoton - to AAA

Aguilar - released or traded for low level milb

 

Summary: Yelich, Cain and Santana start as normal. Braun gets 75% of games which is one day off a week with one 10 dl trip. Thames is now the part time player / primary bench bat. If anyone gets a serious injury, Thames fills in with Braun heading to the OF. If more than one injury or a season ending injury, Phillips is up. The only loss of having too many players is potentially getting a poor return on Aguilar (no big loss) and Thames going from an 80% player to a 50% player (if everyone stays healthy). And the overall roster make is unchanged with the bench being Thames, Perez, Sogard, Vogt. I would say that's a pretty manageable worst case scenario and see no reason we need to trade anyone.

[DR28]

Man all this talk about Braun being a part time player... Come on.

 

When healthy he's our best hitter.

[FVBrewerFan]

Man all this talk about Braun being a part time player... Come on.

 

When healthy he's our best hitter.

 

Yes, it's called 2012.

[tmwiese55]

Just two seasons ago in 2016 Braun played 135 games and hit 305 with 30 HRs. Last year obviously he was on the DL early but his advanced stats said he was hitting the ball as well as he ever had. And then he got hurt again at the end of the year and it killed his numbers when he tried to play through it.

 

The point is, if healthy he's the best hitter so you're not going to sit him when healthy other than the 1 day a week like they've been doing for years now. You just need to plan on having an adequate 4th like a Phillips to be there for the planned days off and if he hits the DL for a couple weeks rather than trotting out the Keith Ginter types.

[jjfanec]

Man all this talk about Braun being a part time player... Come on.

 

When healthy he's our best hitter.

 

Yes, it's called 2012.

 

Actually it is called 2016. He may have only played 135 games but that may be a good number anyway and he put up very good numbers. If he repeats 2016 he may not be our best hitter but that would mean a couple other guys had great years

[bluescale]

Actually it is called 2016. He may have only played 135 games but that may be a good number anyway and he put up very good numbers. If he repeats 2016 he may not be our best hitter but that would mean a couple other guys had great years

 

Braun is 34. He's much more likely to perform like he did in 2012-2015 than he did in 2016. 2015 wasn't a bad year, but I wouldn't expect him to be much better than that. Hope, maybe, but not expect...

[82brewcrew82]

Good grief, start a thread on Braun's durability already.

[Roderick]

.....

First off as I said I’d be playing Braun at first base full time, not platooning him, so the backup doesn’t really come into play that often. I’m betting on him being able to play more often and stay healthier since he’s at a much less rigorous defensive position.

 

Is 1B really going to be less rigorous for Braun? Seems to me that diving after ground balls in the hole may beat up on his back and obliques more than chasing down balls in the OF. I'm not saying don't play Braun at 1B, I am just thinking he is going to need 60 games off, and that should be planned for accordingly.

[wallus]

.....

First off as I said I’d be playing Braun at first base full time, not platooning him, so the backup doesn’t really come into play that often. I’m betting on him being able to play more often and stay healthier since he’s at a much less rigorous defensive position.

 

Is 1B really going to be less rigorous for Braun? Seems to me that diving after ground balls in the hole may beat up on his back and obliques more than chasing down balls in the OF. I'm not saying don't play Braun at 1B, I am just thinking he is going to need 60 games off, and that should be planned for accordingly.

 

It will be a lot less running for him.

[tmwiese55]

I actually agree that 1B might be worse for his injury risk. More bending, stretching, diving, getting hit by the ball, etc. Involved in way more plays rather than just being able to stand around a lot. Counter is less running, so who knows

[MrTPlush]

.....

First off as I said I’d be playing Braun at first base full time, not platooning him, so the backup doesn’t really come into play that often. I’m betting on him being able to play more often and stay healthier since he’s at a much less rigorous defensive position.

 

Is 1B really going to be less rigorous for Braun? Seems to me that diving after ground balls in the hole may beat up on his back and obliques more than chasing down balls in the OF. I'm not saying don't play Braun at 1B, I am just thinking he is going to need 60 games off, and that should be planned for accordingly.

 

It will be a lot less running for him.

 

Knowing the nagging injuries he gets most probably come from swinging a bat and running bases. 1B would probably have little to no effect...but not throwing hard could help a bit. He doesn't just get sore...getting hit by a ball or diving are not big deals.

[bork]

Last year was the first time Cain played more than 140 games, so you probably can't count on him going 150+ games either.

[TJseven7]

"To the fantasy baseball outlook"

Why do you have 2 waiver wire guys on your roster like aguilar and broxton when you have 8 guys to cover 4 spots? WW guys aren't going to be traded to fill gaps in your roster.

 

"To phillips being the perfect 4th OF."

Literally couldn't handle him worse. You take a young guy with potential and put him in the bigs to play 50 games? He could be a starter in rf. Defensively he's a war generator. You want him to keep developing and limited action in the majors wont help that.

 

"To highheat saying EXACTLY its the OF"

He supposed. Vaguely supposed. He didn't exactly say it, he speculated. All we know is that TB upped their offer and wanted Burnes. Tens of reasons that could be true and the most far fetched by far is illusion of lost leverage.

 

"To putting players in santanas way"

We traded for a GG LF. We signed a near GG CF. Santana plays RF. Santana is not being moved on the diamond, braun is. The more you look into it, Braun in RF isn't very good either. Unless we added guys to move them from dwar plus GG level positions, braun is the one who got buried.

 

"Braun durability"

Great post above pointing out the ab spread and how braun can get 132 games with ease, no long term injuries required. I've been saying roughly the same. Brauns the best hitter, braun played 135 in 2016... yeah ok but he's 34 and what path do you want to take. Aim for 140, wear him down and see if we can avoid a bad injury, and play him through minor injuries. Or manage him, and try to get superstar braun for 110 games this year with ample rest so he can stay elite, fresh, healthy, and ready for extra games in the post season. How much he could play and how much we should play him are different answers.

 

"To thames aguilar"

Both are risky. Thames is a lhb and we collect those if you haven't been paying attention. He might get 80-90 games in the current build with health. 80-90 games and ph... heavily vs rhp, hes going to be well worth 5 mil. At 95 mil payroll he's not preventing us from signing walker. I don't look to save money by removing players who are worth more than we pay them. Especially to turn around and sign someone to a fair market deal.

[KeithStone53151]

Knowing the nagging injuries he gets most probably come from swinging a bat and running bases. 1B would probably have little to no effect...but not throwing hard could help a bit. He doesn't just get sore...getting hit by a ball or diving are not big deals.

 

Not having to throw as much could help with any lingering thumb issues. And less running in the outfield could help to some degree with the calf, though as noted he'll still have to run the bases. And every swing should bring nerves about straining an oblique/intercoastal...though he hasn't had as many issues with that lately. You can probably pencil Braun in for 140ish games if he deals with no injuries, more likely is in the 130s somewhere. With the players we have, we should give him a day or two off per week periodically to help keep him fresh all season. Hopefully we'll need him in October.

[paul253]

He could be a starter in rf. Defensively he's a war generator. You want him to keep developing and limited action in the majors wont help that.

 

Yes he could be a starter but he’s not going to be so no point in talking about it. Obviously him playing every day in best for him but considering about the team and not him I repeat the statement that he’s he ideal fourth outfielder for us. I’m referring more to the type of player he is

 

He supposed. Vaguely supposed. He didn't exactly say it, he speculated. All we know is that TB upped their offer and wanted Burnes. Tens of reasons that could be true and the most far fetched by far is illusion of lost leverage

 

So serious question here. You keep mentioning stuff like this. “He supposed”. “You’re speculating”. What is it that you think you’re doing? You’re stating this stuff as fact yet there isn’t one supporting piece of evidence that you’ve provided to back up one single claim you’ve made. I fully admit that I’m speculating but at least what HH said provides SOME support to my claim. You haven’t provided one iota of support to your claims, either that leverage isn’t the reason for the upper demands or that all these other reasons are why the demand was upped. That’s what is so frustrating about debating with you. As I said earlier you don’t know anything here more than I do. So why do you insist on absolutely positively claiming that this other theory is 100% wrong?

 

braun is the one who got buried.

 

All things being equal Braun is still one of the best two or three hitters on this teams. Down one in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and a guy on second who would you rather have up? Yelich. Maybe Cain. MAYBE Shaw? That’s about it. You don’t just bury Braun because he’s old. This guy is a future Hall of Famer.