Where is Domingo Going?

[coolhandluke121]

Sorry, couldn't help it

 

I certainly deserve that. I was trying, but I can't respect the opinion that Aguilar is on a level with Thames or, god forbid, should be a guy they choose ahead of him. I think there's a difference between respecting a person and respecting their opinion. It's kind of a "love the sinner, hate the sin" thing. People are entitled to respect but they're not at all entitled to have their opinions respected if they've not well-supported, and when you're on a forum like this, you're basically defined by your opinions.

[tmwiese55]

I think it's very obtuse to think acquiring two OFs to play in front of Santana doesn't hurt his value. First, it shows they clearly need to move him so will likely take less. Second, it shows MKE might think there is some issues with him to so aggressively try to improve from him. And I'd say it's even more obtuse and rude to aggressively bash another poster when our beloved insider (who we're all treating as gospel right now but at the least has some kind of inside info) literally said this is exactly the reason it happened.

I think the whole post is very obtuse. They are relieving that pressure by playing Braun at first and both Broxton and Philips have options. There is plenty of room for Santana and any perceived NEED to trade him is artificial. I'd think their aggressive efforts to trade Santana since basically the day the season ended would have been more than enough of an indication that the Brewers wanted to move him. I also think it's ironically obtuse for you to call out other posters after such a condescending tone of your own. If you want to go off of HH19's post then fine, some of us aren't as sold as some others.

 

OK, yea just keep attacking everyone that makes for a great time. Carry on. Ya'll who dug in at the time that it didn't hurt their leverage are just sticking to the arguments rather than admitting they 'might' be wrong. How can ya'll be so positive enough to bash people so much when no one really knows for sure. All the other guy is saying is there could be a number of reasons and the leverage issue could very likely be one of them, especially since the insider said EXACTLY that. Then you guys are attacking him that it's impossible and he's clueless. Been tough to read.

[StearnsFTW]

What the heck does this even mean? We missed with him? He came out of nowhere, and had a great half season. Nagging injuries caught up with him last year. What did they miss with? That makes no sense.

 

Perhaps. Pretty easy to have hindsight on a move that wasn't made a year and a half ago now. The team was in sell mode then as well, so I'm sure if anyone offered anything of value for Guerra, he would have been gone.

 

Correct, I have no idea what was offered, but I would've taken very little to move him personally.

[pacopete4]

At this point, I hope there is another trade just so some can stop pretending to know everything about what the Brewers could or could not get for "X" player(s) and calling other people stupid or belittling them like their idea is the only idea.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think it's more about saving the 5 mil so you can spend that money on a P. I don't think he or anyone would say they'd prefer have Jesus over Thames baseball-wise. At least I hope not, but when you factor in that 5 mil to a team about to go up against their financial ceiling. And since they're backups you might not get much bang for your buck on that 5 mil. Still, with Braun's injury history I'm probably paying the 5 mil for insurance on that. But I see the logic.

 

Eh, I can't realistically see any better way to spend $5m than on a guy like Thames to platoon with one of the most injury-prone RHB's in all of a baseball. Morrison or Duda would probably cost close to $10m and get more years than Thames, who is still a pretty good value. I would probably put the over/under on Aguilar's OPS against rhp's at .770 or so, which is abysmal.

 

.770 OPS isn't abysmal. It's above major league average which is around .750. By the way, Aguilar's OPS vs. RHP in 2017 was .002 less than Braun's: .806 to .808.

[paul253]

With all due respect, the notion of trading Thames and keeping Aguilar undermines your credibility completely. Thames is a much better player than Aguilar and they need an LHB 1b.

 

Allow me to explain.

 

First off as I said I’d be playing Braun at first base full time, not platooning him, so the backup doesn’t really come into play that often. I’m betting on him being able to play more often and stay healthier since he’s at a much less rigorous defensive position. Therefore I don’t see the need to have a left handed first basemen like you do.

 

Second, while Aguilar is a first base only player and Thames, theoretically can play some corner outfield, let’s face it Thames would not be playing much outfield when you have Yelich, Cain, Santana, Phillips, and maybe even Broxton ahead of him. How often do fifth outfielders, let alone sixth outfielders get starts? And even if he and when he does start he’ll likely have to replaced anyway in the late innings for defensive purposes when the game is close. So that essentially leaves Thames as the same type of player as Aguilar in my mind. A backup first basemen and emergency outfielder.

 

Third, as others have mentioned I’m not suggesting Aguilar is necessarily a better player than Thames. I think he is similar enough offensively though that it wouldn’t be much of a downgrade. I think Aguilar has just as much power, although his OBP would probably be lower. But he’s also much cheaper which is a big part of the reason why I’d move Thames. Additionally I think Thames would fetch more in return, which is another reason.

 

Really the only argument to keep Thames in this situation is that he’s a lefty. To me that isn’t enough of an argument to make when you could save more money and likely get a better return by trading away Thames. We have plenty of lefties available off the bench with Vogt Phillips and Villar and if you need another one then make a play for Neil Walker.

 

The idea of Aguilar being on a level with Thames because he had one good season as a part-time player is stuck in people's heads for some reason and they can't get it out despite all logic to the contrary

 

Just for clarity’s sake, how many good seasons has Thames had? Before last year highest OBP year was .313. And even last year he was very inconsistent. Let’s not make him out to be more than he is.

[SandyTolan]

I think TB wants Santana and 3-4 prospects for Archer. Like it was stated previously, just say no to TB until they drop their requirements. If Burnes is required, I would just say no.

 

Agreed on this. I tell them Burnes is off the table. The offer is Santana, Ortiz, and a lower rated prospect. Take it or leave it. I have a feeling this is roughly what was offered and perhaps loosely agreed upon, and now TB wants more after the Yelich trade. And it appears Stearns has (appropriately IMO) said no, and isn't budging.

 

 

Yeah, this sounds about right to me. Though I would be willing to do Santana, Woodruff and maybe two prospects in the 11-20 range. But agree completely, if they insist on Burnes, walk away. I think he (and Hader) can be in the rotation in 2019.

[paul253]

HH19 did specifically say the Rays and other increased their asking prices after the OF deals. I can understand them trying to do that, but as you said there are multiple suitors for him without very viable alternatives at that price

 

But the problem is we don’t know how serious the “multiple suitors” are. And we also don’t know if the other teams did the same thing TB did. HH19 said TB increased their demand. He did not say that the other teams didn’t. So we don’t know if they did or not.

 

We also don’t know if the other teams are interested enough to increase their offer, or even stick to their offer. They could have both said “yeah we’ll take him but we’re not going to give up much” which is why a move hasn’t been made yet. Plus, if word gets out around baseball like it apparently has around here that the chances of the TB trade going through went down that doesn’t help either. You just had one of the two teams you were bidding against disappear. That only helps your position.

 

I could be completely misreading this situation but in my opinion I think the Brewers had every intention of moving Santana but have since found that other teams are just not willing to give up as much as they expected. I don’t know if the acquisitions of Yelich and Cain are the reason why but I certainly don’t think it helped.

[coolhandluke121]

 

One thing that popped in my head now would be taking that 5 mil saved and using that as the extra money to finally sign Walker. So, Walker would be your starting 2B but also be your 1st base insurance on Braun. More bang for that 5 mil so to speak.

 

I had that exact same thought at one point but I doubt Walker can produce at a Thames level at 1b even in a platoon. I also kind of want to see if Sogard and Villar can have a decent year at 2b. I think they will both fall roughly at the halfway point between their last two respective seasons, which could be almost as good as Walker considering his age. I'm buying the explanation that Sogard had a nagging knee problem and the surgery helped him. Villar is too talented to repeat last year, although I do think people as dense as him find ways to screw themselves over eventually no matter what.

 

I think Thames/Braun at 1b is perfect for the team. They should be able to find someone like Aguilar with options and keep him in AAA in case of injuries. He's basically a Jason Rogers/Matt Clark if you go off his career numbers, and those guys are a dime a dozen.

[paul253]

I had that exact same thought at one point but I doubt Walker can produce at a Thames level at 1b even in a platoon

 

But in this situation he wouldn’t have to. Again, Braun would be the everyday first baseman. Notice how TMwiese referred to Walker as “your insurance”. If the idea is to platoon Braun then obviously you keep Thames ahead of Aguilar.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I had that exact same thought at one point but I doubt Walker can produce at a Thames level at 1b even in a platoon. I also kind of want to see if Sogard and Villar can have a decent year at 2b. I think they will both fall roughly at the halfway point between their last two respective seasons, which could be almost as good as Walker considering his age. I'm buying the explanation that Sogard had a nagging knee problem and the surgery helped him. Villar is too talented to repeat last year, although I do think people as dense as him find ways to screw themselves over eventually no matter what.

 

I think Thames/Braun at 1b is perfect for the team. They should be able to find someone like Aguilar with options and keep him in AAA in case of injuries. He's basically a Jason Rogers/Matt Clark if you go off his career numbers, and those guys are a dime a dozen.

 

On your first point, I tend to agree with letting Villar and Sogard go into the season at 2B. If they don't play well, there will be plenty of veteran 2B on expensive contracts that crappy teams are looking to dump for a throwaway prospect, exactly how the team acquired Walker last year.

 

On your second point, they already acquired a Rogers/Clark clone to play at 1B in AA with Choi. So yes, you are right. Which also means they aren't going to get much, if anything, in a Aguilar trade.

[KeithStone53151]

HH19 did specifically say the Rays and other increased their asking prices after the OF deals. I can understand them trying to do that, but as you said there are multiple suitors for him without very viable alternatives at that price

 

But the problem is we don’t know how serious the “multiple suitors” are. And we also don’t know if the other teams did the same thing TB did. HH19 said TB increased their demand. He did not say that the other teams didn’t. So we don’t know if they did or not.

 

We also don’t know if the other teams are interested enough to increase their offer, or even stick to their offer. They could have both said “yeah we’ll take him but we’re not going to give up much” which is why a move hasn’t been made yet. Plus, if word gets out around baseball like it apparently has around here that the chances of the TB trade going through went down that doesn’t help either. You just had one of the two teams you were bidding against disappear. That only helps your position.

 

I could be completely misreading this situation but in my opinion I think the Brewers had every intention of moving Santana but have since found that other teams are just not willing to give up as much as they expected. I don’t know if the acquisitions of Yelich and Cain are the reason why but I certainly don’t think it helped.

 

Other teams could have increased their demand as well. This is my own speculation, but I wouldn't be surprised if Archer was plan A and a Cleveland SP is plan B...for obvious reasons. It will definitely be interesting to see if teams come back closer to the original agreements that seemed to be in place. We can manage to get everyone a decent amount of PT if we keep Santana, and our offense will be awesome, so we can make do if needed and target rotation help in-season.

[superfly]

 

Just for clarity’s sake, how many good seasons has Thames had? Before last year highest OBP year was .313. And even last year he was very inconsistent. Let’s not make him out to be more than he is.

 

 

Did you really just use 2011 and 2012 stats to draw a case on 2017-2018 Eric Thames? Come on, he hadn't played in MLB in 5 years and theoretically "found himself" overseas. Regardless if 2017 was outside the mean 2011-12 have zero impact on future performance IMO.

[tmwiese55]

Just did some quick math and if you take out the ridiculous April before he was figured out Thames was 238/308 for the rest of the year. I hope I did everything correctly on that. Still, i'm confident if he only faces RHP he'll be an adequate player. But as someone said, let's not make him out to be more than he was.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Really the only argument to keep Thames in this situation is that he’s a lefty. To me that isn’t enough of an argument to make when you could save more money and likely get a better return by trading away Thames. We have plenty of lefties available off the bench with Vogt Phillips and Villar and if you need another one then make a play for Neil Walker.

 

Just for clarity’s sake, how many good seasons has Thames had? Before last year highest OBP year was .313. And even last year he was very inconsistent. Let’s not make him out to be more than he is.

 

The fact that he's an LHB should be a HUGE part of the argument. It's a little more than just a tiebreaker, but it's not even a tie to begin with.

 

They have a combined 10,000 professional p.a.'s. Comparing Aguilar's fluke 2017 in 400 p.a.'s to Thames's MLB numbers in 700 p.a.'s in several partial seasons long ago is extremely disingenuous. You could make a case for keeping Thames instead of Aguilar even if Braun was an LHB, just because LHB ph's have value too because most relievers are rhp's. There's really no comparison.

[coolhandluke121]

I had that exact same thought at one point but I doubt Walker can produce at a Thames level at 1b even in a platoon

 

But in this situation he wouldn’t have to. Again, Braun would be the everyday first baseman. Notice how TMwiese referred to Walker as “your insurance”. If the idea is to platoon Braun then obviously you keep Thames ahead of Aguilar.

 

No, he specifically said he would take the $5m saved on Thames so they could afford Walker.

 

ETA: My bad, I guess the notion of Braun being an everyday player is so unthinkable that it didn't even register that somebody wouldn't think they'd need another 1b who can OPS close to .900, at least against rhp's.

[coolhandluke121]

Just did some quick math and if you take out the ridiculous April before he was figured out Thames was 238/308 for the rest of the year. I hope I did everything correctly on that. Still, i'm confident if he only faces RHP he'll be an adequate player. But as someone said, let's not make him out to be more than he was.

 

Now go take out Aguilar's 6 p.a.'s at Coors and see what you get. I'm not making Thames out to be more than he is. I'm asking people to stop making Aguilar out to be more than he is, which is significantly worse than Thames (and with Braun at first, also a much worse fit) despite the fact that Thames himself is not a very good player.

[coolhandluke121]

Sorry you all, this went off topic, although it is about trickle-down effects after the Santana situation is resolved.

[pacopete4]

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http://i.imgur.com/okxEzsk.gif

 

So where is Domingo going again?

[tmwiese55]

Sorry you all, this went off topic, although it is about trickle-down effects after the Santana situation is resolved.

 

Right. Because someone has to go. If it's not Santana, it's someone else. And yea I agree on Jesus too could easily be a regression guy too. That's something I've said on both Thames/Jesus the whole time. Put them together in a hard platoon and I think they're 'fine' though. Of course if Braun can do almost everyday (at least Braun's version of it) it's an upgrade though.

[82brewcrew82]

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http://i.imgur.com/okxEzsk.gif

 

So where is Domingo going again?

Arizona for spring training?

[coolhandluke121]

Sorry you all, this went off topic, although it is about trickle-down effects after the Santana situation is resolved.

 

Right. Because someone has to go. If it's not Santana, it's someone else. And yea I agree on Jesus too could easily be a regression guy too. That's something I've said on both Thames/Jesus the whole time. Put them together in a hard platoon and I think they're 'fine' though. Of course if Braun can do almost everyday (at least Braun's version of it) it's an upgrade though.

 

I would hardly even keep Aguilar even if Santana was traded. Braun and Thames can play 1b and Braun/Phillips can platoon in right. Broxton has options to be a backup cf and Perez can back up both corner outfield spots reasonably well. Vogt can play 1b if Thames is hurt. I think Thames is a regression candidate and needs more days off. He's not good enough to be a full platoon player and get 120 starts. He needs to stay mentally fresh to avoid slipping back into old habits at the plate. He even asked for more days off when he started slumping in May and June last year, so even he knows he's a part-time player. So I could easily see Braun getting ~40 starts against rhb's at 1b, which leaves Thames as a valuable bench bat on those days but certainly does not leave much room for Aguilar on the roster.

[coolhandluke121]

Re: Santana, you just have to wait for more teams to be really interested in him. They might have lost some leverage if they were working primarily with one team, but the true leverage will come from a bidding war.

[FVBrewerFan]

Let's face it, there's not enough track record for either Thames/Aguilar to accurately predict what they'll do in 2018. So, we're all pretty much going by what we "think."

 

Just watching both players last year, I feel pretty confident Aguilar can repeat his numbers. I just like his approach, his swing. We all know Thames was really bad after his Ruthian April. Truly, all Thames has over Aguilar is his LHB. But as someone said, that's not insignificant.

 

I do like the idea of having Walker back to backup Braun at 1B. Problem at 2B then, with Sogard also LH and Villar better as LH. So that makes any type of platoon tough.

 

Thing is, I just don't trust what Thames can do. His upside is higher, for sure. But his floor is too. Maybe it's just a comfort level thing, but I would roll with Aguilar and/or Walker on the roster.

[tmwiese55]

Re: Santana, you just have to wait for more teams to be really interested in him. They might have lost some leverage if they were working primarily with one team, but the true leverage will come from a bidding war.

 

To that end. I just ran through the FA list again and after JD there isn't really a starting level OF available. And obviously none that are 25 yrs old and cheap controlled for 4 years. Of course, an issue could be that some view him as primarily a DH at which point you have the Dudas/Lomos coming into play too. But maybe after JD signs they can get some action going.

 

Also, Jon Jay still out there. Hopefully he doesn't go back to the Cubs and keeps killing us.