Where is Domingo Going?

[brewmann04]

We just finally found a good Third baseman and know people are talking about moving him. I just can't see it

[Oxy]

We just finally found a good Third baseman and know people are talking about moving him. I just can't see it

 

Depending on if the Brewers feel that Shaw had a career year last year or if last year is his normal year. Selling high is not a bad idea if the return is also high (We probably should have traded Villar last winter...)

[tkraus3]

We just finally found a good Third baseman and know people are talking about moving him. I just can't see it

 

Depending on if the Brewers feel that Shaw had a career year last year or if last year is his normal year. Selling high is not a bad idea if the return is also high (We probably should have traded Villar last winter...)

I completely agree, Stearns must have learned a lesson from both Villar and Guerra. Who knows though maybe Shaw does keep doing what he did last year, same with Domingo.

[SRB]

I wouldn't write off Villar entirely yet because he had one down season (see: Jean Segura). Shaw being good was not totally unexpected. Guerra is the only one who came out of nowhere and sustained it relatively briefly.

[brewmann04]

I agree think the one we missed with is Guerra.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I agree think the one we missed with is Guerra.

 

What the heck does this even mean? We missed with him? He came out of nowhere, and had a great half season. Nagging injuries caught up with him last year. What did they miss with? That makes no sense.

[Eye Black]

I'm not so sure it's even a huge step back right now. I think Mejia will be better than Pina this year. I think Salazar is A LOT better than Suter, Guerra, Gallardo, or whoever else is slated to be the 5th starter right now, and it would make it less necessary to take a huge gamble on Yu or Arrieta. If Shaw duplicates this year's success, then it is probably a step back for now, but not necessarily a huge one.

I just don't think the Indians are going to trade Mejia. Since the Lucroy non-deal, he's upped his value to the point where I doubt the prospect of getting Santana and/or Shaw is enough for the Indians to move him.

 

My issue with saying that Salazar is better than Suter/Guerra/etc, is that while it's true (when he's healthy), the Brewers shouldn't be trading a couple of mid-20s .360+ wOBA guys for an upgrade over Suter. You can go out and get Patrick Corbin for that. For Santana and Shaw, I want a pitcher that's an upgrade over Jimmy Nelson and Chase Anderson.

 

FWIW, it also would seem to run counter to Stearns' MO to package Santana and Shaw.

The one part I disagree on is the Indians not being open to trading Francisco Mejia. It would likely cost a lot (something like Santana plus a good Brewers prospect), but I think the Indians would do it for proper valuation. While Mejia’s hitting talent is undeniable, he has some things working against him. He is blocked at catcher for the foreseeable future. He has an elite arm, but is reportedly a below average receiver. He is small for a catcher (likely not even 5’10”). The Indians were obviously willing to trade him at the height of his hitting streak stardom in 2016. His first attempt at playing 3B seemingly failed, and doesn’t seem likely at this point to be an option for him at the major league level. I don’t want this to come across as dismissing Mejia because he is a player I would be very happy for the Brewers to acquire, but much like the situation with Brinson for the Brewers, Mejia could potentially be more valuable to the Indians as a trade chip than as a major leaguer.

[adambr2]

I'm not so sure it's even a huge step back right now. I think Mejia will be better than Pina this year. I think Salazar is A LOT better than Suter, Guerra, Gallardo, or whoever else is slated to be the 5th starter right now, and it would make it less necessary to take a huge gamble on Yu or Arrieta. If Shaw duplicates this year's success, then it is probably a step back for now, but not necessarily a huge one.

I just don't think the Indians are going to trade Mejia. Since the Lucroy non-deal, he's upped his value to the point where I doubt the prospect of getting Santana and/or Shaw is enough for the Indians to move him.

 

My issue with saying that Salazar is better than Suter/Guerra/etc, is that while it's true (when he's healthy), the Brewers shouldn't be trading a couple of mid-20s .360+ wOBA guys for an upgrade over Suter. You can go out and get Patrick Corbin for that. For Santana and Shaw, I want a pitcher that's an upgrade over Jimmy Nelson and Chase Anderson.

 

FWIW, it also would seem to run counter to Stearns' MO to package Santana and Shaw.

The one part I disagree on is the Indians not being open to trading Mejia. It would likely cost a lot (something like Santana plus a good Brewers prospect), but I think the Indians would do it for proper valuation. While Mejia’s hitting talent is undeniable, he has some things working against him. He is blocked at catcher for the foreseeable future. He has an elite arm, but is reportedly a below average receiver. He is small for a catcher (likely not even 5’10”). The Indians were obviously willing to trade him at the height of his hitting streak stardom in 2016. His first attempt at playing 3B seemingly failed, and doesn’t seem likely at this point to be an option for him at the major league level. I don’t want this to come across as dismissing Mejia because he is a player I would be very happy for the Brewers to acquire, but much like the situation with Brinson for the Brewers, Mejia could potentially be more valuable to the Indians as a trade chip than as a major leaguer.

 

Perhaps, but Mejia has substantially more value than he did when we traded for him previously. Its hard to compare, he just has much more value now.

[Eye Black]

Perhaps, but Mejia has substantially more value than he did when we traded for him previously. Its hard to compare, he just has much more value now.

Yes, he undoubtedly has more value today than he did as an A-ball player on July 30th, 2016. I don’t think anyone is disputing that (at least I am certainly not). That still doesn’t make him untouchable as a potential trade piece. If the Indians believe his trade value (whether with the Brewers or anyone else) is high enough that they can parlay it into adding pieces that fit their organization better they would be silly not to explore those things. I do think there are currently a handful of prospects across baseball that are virtually untouchable in trades, but I do not think Mejia classifies in that category. That doesn’t mean I think the Indians would accept anything less than a very high return in order to move him. Even with as good as Mejia’s hit tool is there is still risk in his overall profile.

[brewmann04]

Let me try to explain the guy had a great half and he could have been traded at his highest value.

[trwi7]

Any thought this deal is waiting to see if darvish signs here or somewhere else. Not sure if a pitcher is necessary if we get darvish. Brewers could use santigo to improve other spots

Did Santiago send you?

 

LARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRYYYYYYYYYY

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Let me try to explain the guy had a great half and he could have been traded at his highest value.

 

No one was going to give them anything for a guy who had a fluke 1/2 season.

[brewmann04]

At that point you can't say no team would have offfered for Guerra if he was actually on the market

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

At that point you can't say no team would have offfered for Guerra if he was actually on the market

 

Who says he wasn't?

[brewmann04]

That the question you and I can not be sure one way or other.

[FVBrewerFan]

Let me try to explain the guy had a great half and he could have been traded at his highest value.

 

Yea, they should have sold high on Espino too after he had that avereage-ish start against the Cubs. Blew that one.

[TJseven7]

But hey if it fits your nonsensical narrative boast away

 

Wow. I realize it’s hard to admit you’re wrong but I think you’re taking this to a new level. My “boast” was that perhaps his value decreased. If you believe what HighHeat19 said that’s exactly what happened. I’m not looking for recognition or anything. But what I am looking for is that posters like you stop being so close minded and shooting down others’ opinions so fast because you disagree with them.

 

Back when we had our little back and forth you essentially stated as fact that Santana’s value wasn’t decreasing and that Stearns wasn’t running out of options to move him. If you don’t want to take Highheats posts as fact then fine. But are you really going to double down on your closed mindedness and call my opinion “nonsensical” when other well informed posters have suggested it is exactly what is happening?

 

Trying and accomplishing are very different things. Trying it is stupid and stearns told them appropriately to pound sand. Good luck with cargo fellas. Not to mention his comment was Archer. You can just as easily assume they just wanted more because its archer

 

Did you actually read what he said? “After the Brewer's acquisition of the OF's, it is known that Tampa upped what they wanted in return (Corbin Burnes) in a package for Archer. ”. So they all of a sudden decided they wanted more for Archer and it had absolutely nothing to do with the Brewers acquiring the additional outfielders? I guess we interpreted his post quite differently.

 

And yes trying and accomplishing are different. But that has nothing to do with the argument. If TB decided they wanted more for Santana then common sense dictates that don’t value him as highly as they did before.

 

At this point I’m guessing Santana stays with the Brewers. Just my gut feeling. I actually wouldn’t mind them trying to move Aguilar or Thames at this point.

 

However, their pickups of Yelich and Cain MAY HAVE impeded that. Apparently, the Brewers had offers for Cleveland, Tampa and one more team on the table. After the Brewer's acquisition of the OF's, it is known that Tampa upped what they wanted in return (Corbin Burnes) in a package for Archer.

 

That's your proof? Speculation is your proof? Yeah ok... break that arm patting yourself on the back for that... ha. I'd guess it has as much to do with a team wanting a max offer to part with archer than anything. Remember how we upped our offer for Yelich right before they agreed? Maybe tb thought our offer was a low offer and they could get more just like miami.

 

You don't know anything more from what he said than before. There are a multitude of reasons that explain what he said, but you want to read it how you want to see it so go ahead, man its a shame we don't have a leverage expert like you teaching stearns. I'll stick with reality.

[MrTPlush]

Brewer's acquisition of the OF's, it is known that Tampa upped what they wanted in return (Corbin Burnes) in a package for Archer. Stearns said no.

 

I'm not buying into this claim one bit. The Tampa Bay Rays had an offer they were willing to accept and backed out because they thought we were more desperate to trade Santana now...thus thinking we would add more to get rid of him? Yah, hard pass.

[brewmann04]

I agreeat this point pass unless TB comes down

[TJseven7]

Reasons tb asked for more:

Saw yelich trade and wanted more than their offer

Saw darvish saying la and figures more teams will get involved

Saw mke upped their offer to mia wanted theirs upped too

Cold feet on dealing archer

 

But its santana leverage. Only logical explanation. Which is dumb to even try. So mke jumps back in on yu and blows tb a kiss. Are the other offers not there or does stearns want yu 1 archer 2 and the other deals are farther down the list and will be dealt with once his prizes aren't his.

[paul253]

that's your proof? Speculation is your proof? Yeah ok... break that arm patting yourself on the back for that... ha.

 

I’m done with you after this postI can’t recall the last poster who has been as arrogant as you.

 

You lament me for lack of proof? Where is yours? Seriously. Every single thing you’ve said is opinion that you try to pass off as fact. As if it couldn’t possibly be anything other than what you think it is. I’m not claiming to know what’s what and I never have. I’m only throwing out possibilities. I don’t understand why you can’t recognize you’re doing the same thing. Why you can’t recognize that there is a chance that.....gasp.....you could be wrong.

 

Maybe tb thought our offer was a low offer and they could get more just like miami

 

Yeah maybe. It’s very possible. But believe it or not it’s also possible TB saw our position has changed and we are more motivated to trade Santana due to our recent acquisitions. I mean, I know that’s just soooooo far out there that it couldn’t possibly in a million years be true and that you have proof that what said is true but maybe, just maybe it happened.

 

You don't know anything more from what he said than before. There are a multitude of reasons that explain what he said, but you want to read it how you want to see it so go ahead, man its a shame we don't have a leverage expert like you teaching stearns. I'll stick with reality.

 

I’m not sure the last time I’ve come across a poster who is been as a big a.......as you are right now. I mean my lord. I realize this isn’t the political board and we’re not supposed to get personal but others ARE allowed to have opinions. And, I’m not sure you understand this, but all the stuff you are saying is opinion too. You don’t know any more than I do. You get that right? Unless you have some double super secret insider who is giving your hourly updates. If you do, I mean, I apologize dude, but you should be more clear about it. Not be a dick like you’re being now.

 

I'd guess it has as much to do with a team wanting a max offer to part with archer than anything

 

No kidding they want a max offer. That’s very intuitive of you. The question is why did what they consider a “max offer” all of a sudden change after he Brewers acquired Yelich and Cain?

 

Reasons tb asked for more:

Saw yelich trade and wanted more than their offer

Saw darvish saying la and figures more teams will get involved

Saw mke upped their offer to mia wanted theirs upped too

Cold feet on dealing archer

 

Every one of these things could be true (see how easy it is to admit that someone else might be right, although I find it hilarious that you post this after whining about my “proof” being speculation. Because this isnt speculation at all) It could also be a combination of all three. OR........OR.......it could be that TB saw Milwaukee now has four starting caliber outfielders to play three positions, doesn’t need them all, and may be willing to accept a lower offer, or pay more, to move one. I mean.....that’s like a Bermuda Triangle/Grassy Knoll type theory but it could actually happen.

 

So mke jumps back in on yu and blows tb a kiss

 

Just like that huh? If we can’t get Archer we just go sign Yu? Do you really think it’s that easy? I think it’s probably more likely that Yu is blowing a kiss to us but hey, I’m not the one living in reality apparently.

 

Are the other offers not there or does stearns want yu 1 archer 2 and the other deals are farther down the list and will be dealt with once his prizes aren't his

 

Shouldn’t you be telling us?

[TJseven7]

Seriously dear individual. I'm not saying I know the answer to any of this and because of that I can speculate widely. It literally could be anything... well execpt your notion of leverage. I'm simply saying your take is obtuse. I find it hard to see myself being arrogant in saying I have no idea except I know your thought on this is completely wrong. Nothing repeat nothing works the way you are pretending this is working.

 

You act like we HAVE TO deal santana. We don't. Alex Smith was just traded for a good price. Everyone knew kc wanted to move on to mahomes and that kc is capped. Did that kill his value? Hell mia announced fire sale and they still got a good offers in every single trade. The worst was stanton because the market for him and his insane contract was small.

 

On top of that leverage = market need. Nothing else. A team with too many pitchers doesn't start giving them away because there's always more need. Santana is the best power bat on the market. Is better than most al dhs. There's more need than options thus there is a market. Teams can't devalue him without collusion. If all interested parties collude to kill his value then success. It has literally nothing to do with yelich and cain.

 

I'm sorry, all theories aren't valid. Yours is obtuse and wrong and doesn't play out like that in any sport. Anyone following sports knows this and yet here you are. The only time that can happen and an asset can be devalued in the manner you are stating is when there's a deadline approaching and there's no market for an expiring contract.

 

We could literally sign altuve for 8 years and watch huira explode in AAA and no one would get a discount on him because he's blocked. It just doesn't work that way.

 

You unfortunately have stumbled upon one explanation that is not possible.

 

Simply put... even if the TB gm decide to use you notion to a T. He's a moron who won't end up with Santana. Another team not playing games will. Demand favors the brewers becayse they hold a coveted asset. No matter how he fits.

[paul253]

I'm not saying I know the answer to any of this and because of that I can speculate widely

 

And yet you complain about my speculation? Your allowed to speculate and I’m not? Ok.

 

It literally could be anything... well execpt your notion of leverage. I'm simply saying your take is obtuse

 

“It could be literally anything except the one thing that you think it could be”. And you don’t understand why I think you’re being arrogant?

 

I find it hard to see myself being arrogant in saying I have no idea except I know your thought on this is completely wrong

 

Um.....ok. You just defined arrogance while claiming you don’t know why I’m calling you arrogant.

 

Nothing repeat nothing works the way you are pretending this is working.

 

The third sentence in a row where your arrogance is clear as day. I mean come on. Nothing works that way? Not one single thing? If I want to trade a player and only one team is interested in said player that team doesn’t have leverage? That never happens? If I have four players who can only play first base and need to trade some other teams don’t have leverage because they know I can’t use four first basemen? That’s not leverage? If I have a player who is only under contract for one more year and has said he won’t re-sign with us thats no different then the same player being under contract for three more seasons? The return will be the same? I’m starting to wonder if you even know what leverage is.

 

You act like we HAVE TO deal santana. We don't

 

Never once did I say we HAD to move Santana. I said that it is obvious that we WANTED to move Santana. And that we currently have four starting caliber every day outfielders, not even counting Broxton and Phillips. Are you really going to disagree with that?

 

Hell mia announced fire sale and they still got a good offers in every single trade

 

Completely different scenarios. Even talking about it is a waste of time.

 

A team with too many pitchers doesn't start giving them away because there's always more need

 

At this point I wonder if you even understand what I’m saying. Who said that we HAVE to trade Santana? Who said that we are going to “give him away”? Not me. What I did say that it is clear that we now have surplus of outfielders. We do. Even you can’t deny that. Can some of them play other positions? Sure. But then we have a surplus of players at other positions. No matter how you slice it we won’t go into the season with Braun Yelich Cain, Santana, Aguilar AND Thames all on the roster.

So somebody has to be moved. Clearly we want that to be Santana right? With me so far? So if teams know we WANT to move Santana teams are going to offer less for him. That doesn’t mean we HAVE to take it. That doesn’t mean we will FOR SURE trade him. All it means is that teams, knowing we want to move and might not have a spot for him, will offer less. You can call that dumb all you want but the fact is you’d be idiot not to at least try it.

 

If you’re a car salesmen and a customer comes in says “I really really really want this car” are you immediately going to offer him the best possible deal on that car? You might but I’m sure as heck not going to.

 

Or how about this? Have you ever sold anything? If you have something you really want to get rid of are you not more likely to take a lesser offer for it? Whereas if you have something you don’t really care if you sell in which case you’re not as likely to accept a lesser offer? Don’t lie.

 

Santana is the best power bat on the market. Is better than most al dhs. There's more need than options thus there is a market.

 

And yet we clearly haven’t gotten an offer that we’ve deemed acceptable. Perhaps this “market need” isn’t as strong as you seem to think it is. Yeah maybe he is a “better” player than others available. But if his cost is too high then other teams will pass and go to another option. Happens all the time.

 

We could literally sign altuve for 8 years and watch huira explode in AAA and no one would get a discount on him because he's blocked. It just doesn't work that way

 

I guess we’ll just agree to disagree. If you were my GM and you didn’t take advantage of the fact that the Brewers have two major league players that play the same position and only that position I’d be furious with you. Ultimately his value depends on how many teams want him but all things being equal a team who needs to or wants to move a player MIGHT get less for him.

 

Going back to your example you have to ask yourself this. Would we get the same value in return for Altuve if we didn’t have Hiura ready to replace him? I’d say no because the fact is if we didn’t have Hiura we wouldn’t trade Altuve unless the offer was immense. In other words a team would have to overpay for him. With Hiura who is blocked and wasting away in AAA the team likely wouldn’t want to be as patient and wait for the overpay to come because the longer you wait the less time you have Hiura. I’m sorry if that doesn’t mesh with how you view this universe but it might just be true.

[BrewCity22]

My second post will not be as good as my first, but take your arguments to another forum. No one has time to read nor wants to scroll past 15 paragraph arguments.

[paul253]

My second post will not be as good as my first

 

Don’t sell yourself short. This is a very good second post.

 

Back to topic. Where is Santana going? My prediction is nowhere. I think our best bet right now would be to try to trade Thames for some low level high upside prospects. Thames strikes out just as much as Santana. He’s older. He’s more expensive. He’s under control for less time. Really the only thing he has on Santana is that he’s left handed. Play Ryan Braun at first base full time with Aguilar as his backup. If Braun to going to move to first I’d prefer he does it full time. Less wear and tear on his body and more time to learn he position. Just a hunch but I think our opportunity to trade Santana has passed. That’s not necessarily a bad thing though. He’s a middle of the order hitter.