Cain to Brewers - 5 years/$80M

[SRB]

Since the 2010 season, Cain has been the twelfth best positional player in all of baseball on a per PA basis (3000+ PA). The only better outfielders have been Trout, Harper, and Stanton.

[DHonks]

 

That would add about 50 hits if you give around a .340 BABIP

 

I think 150 is pretty bullish, but yah we are talking 100 less strikeouts. That is amazing in just two moves. Props to Stearns for making such a massive difference to such a huge problem on this offense.

 

Broxton strikes out over 200 times if he gets the ab cain or yelich did. 150 less yelich cain from broxton santana is pretty accurate.

 

That's how I calculated it as well. I generally don't care about strikeouts, but there's a bit of a myth out there over the last decade, where people feel you can't be productive without strikeouts. You very well can be productive. Perhaps the Brewers have some analytics that show how important OBP, reduced K's, and improved defense are. Broxton has the capability of being a very good defensive OF, but his frequent misplays are frustrating. The good news is he's still young enough to get better all around

[TJseven7]

Since the 2010 season, Cain has been the twelfth best positional player in all of baseball on a per PA basis (3000+ PA). The only better outfielders have been Trout, Harper, and Stanton.

 

I dont think anyone worries about his past, fit, or if he earned this contract. 32 33 34 35 rumored buyout 36. Plus talk of his defense already starting to decline. I love Cain but even I'm worried about that age range.

[TJseven7]

About the strike out reduction

 

I'll keep repeating it I guess. Last year in our skid there seemed to be a serious pattern to it. Add to the fact that the astros did a massive K reduction last offseason and I think we saw the issue but didn't alter because we didnt think we'd be ready yet. Now that they are diving in the first thing that had to be cut out was Ks. I think the astros struck out under 1 time per inning on average and we had a string in our bad streak where we were nearing 12. There was a big yet simple and small sample correlation in W vs L at 11k and under/over 3 walks.

 

I dont know where the exact line is in the analytics but i think there is a saturation point on Ks around 10 per game where it submarines an offenses scoring potential. We replace villar broxton with cain walker/harrison and trade santanas ks for yelich we take off about 225 to 250. That number I believe puts us on the good side of the threshold.

[SRB]

Since the 2010 season, Cain has been the twelfth best positional player in all of baseball on a per PA basis (3000+ PA). The only better outfielders have been Trout, Harper, and Stanton.

 

I dont think anyone worries about his past, fit, or if he earned this contract. 32 33 34 35 rumored buyout 36. Plus talk of his defense already starting to decline. I love Cain but even I'm worried about that age range.

 

Alright. Just pointing out that he's even better than most people realize. Nobody's going to be getting Harper or Stanton on a 5/$80M deal even in their mid-30s.

[Eye Black]

Is Joshua Kusnick still Lorenzo's agent?

 

If so, the man did good for his client.

 

He is not his agent anymore.

Yeah, Baseball Reference still lists him even though Cain fired him back in 2011 (as Josh was very open about on a recent podcast). Looks like Josh was getting a lot congratulations tonight from a lot of folks on Twitter that didn’t realize they weren’t currently working together.

[Boomer5]

5 years and a draft pick for a 32 year old OF. Classic old schools Brewers move.

[clancyphile]

I don't get this deal still.

 

I can understand working something out with Cain in case the Yelich trade fell through. But trading for Yelich AND signing Cain? We went from a logjam of prospects to a logjam of reasonably proven outfielders.

 

Man. You love guys who get on base. I thought for sure you would be happy.

 

The 2017 Brewers had OBP issues, but Santana wasn't part of that problem. Santana drew 73 walks last season, second on the team (Thames had 75 to lead the team), on the way to leading all Brewers with 300 or more plate appearances. That's in addition to a .505 SLG. Braun was in LF. They had Phillips as the 4th outfielder or part of a platoon with Brinson in center. That may not have been ideal, but it was a workable plan, especially if they dealt Broxton for some low-level prospects.

 

They needed help in CF, so one of Yelich or Cain would have sufficed. If Cain agreed to terms, then the right move was to walk away from the Marlins offer. If the Brewers and Marlins reached agreement on a deal before Cain signed, then walk away from those negotiations.

[Boomer5]

So Braun to RF? Ouch. I'd rather the Brewers release Braun (obviously not going to happen) and kept Santana.

[MrTPlush]

So Braun to RF? Ouch. I'd rather the Brewers release Braun (obviously not going to happen) and kept Santana.

 

Why would Braun go to RF? He is staying in LF where he is better. I would think Yelich will go to RF and Cain in CF. Who do you think was going to LF?

[MrTPlush]

They needed help in CF, so one of Yelich or Cain would have sufficed. If Cain agreed to terms, then the right move was to walk away from the Marlins offer. If the Brewers and Marlins reached agreement on a deal before Cain signed, then walk away from those negotiations.

 

No, the Brewers problem was more than a CF hole. The Brewers have a serious strikeout problem and they needed to fix that. Lewis Brinson was not going to help that and I think that was a big part of what transpired here. It is much much more than OBP. Cain and Yelich will massively decrease the amount of strikeouts as a team. If Brinson wasn't a big K guy I could see them committing to him at one of the spots, but the reality was he is also a high K guy. Stearn made a wise decision to improve on that by revamping the OF. This was not about filling the CF hole. This was about fixing an offense painfully dependent on HRs with high K rates.

 

We didn't have a CF hole. We had two top prospects(arguably Top 100 in baseball) ready to man CF with great defense....except both featured really high K rates. We need a diversified offense and Stearns saw a huge problem in the outfield. He made moves to reduce the amount of strikeouts while overall improving the defense. Win-Win.

[clancyphile]

They needed help in CF, so one of Yelich or Cain would have sufficed. If Cain agreed to terms, then the right move was to walk away from the Marlins offer. If the Brewers and Marlins reached agreement on a deal before Cain signed, then walk away from those negotiations.

 

No, the Brewers problem was more than a CF hole. The Brewers have a serious strikeout problem and they needed to fix that. Lewis Brinson was not going to help that and I think that was a big part of what transpired here. It is much much more than OBP. Cain and Yelich will massively decrease the amount of strikeouts as a team. If Brinson wasn't a big K guy I could see them committing to him at one of the spots, but the reality was he is also a high K guy. Stearn made a wise decision to improve on that by revamping the OF. This was not about filling the CF hole. This was about fixing an offense painfully dependent on HRs with high K rates.

 

We didn't have a CF hole. We had two top prospects(arguably Top 100 in baseball) ready to man CF with great defense....except both featured really high K rates. We need a diversified offense and Stearns saw a huge problem in the outfield. He made moves to reduce the amount of strikeouts while overall improving the defense. Win-Win.

 

The big problem was the main CF, Broxton, was a big K machine. We're talking super-bad there. Phillips was better, but very young, and had 34 K in 87 AB but also 9 walks. Corners were OK. Braun in left had shown a return to form in 2016. Santana led the team in OBP while playing right.

 

Shaw was solid at third. Arcia was an OBP problem at short. Villar slumped badly at second, Neil Walker did turn things around there. Thames led the Crew in walks, but didn't play as many games. Pina was OK, but his OBP skills aren't the best.

 

On the bench, Perez has poor OBP, but is able to play seven positions. Sogard brings good OBP skills. Aguilar has power, but his OBP skills aren't there. Vogt doesn't have OBP skills, either.

 

So, the biggest upgrades needed, in my mind were:

Broxton, Villar, and Arcia among the starters.

 

Aguilar and Vogt on the bench.

 

I don't see why the Brewers needed both Cain and Yelich. Sign Cain or trade for Yelich. Doing both...

 

[dlk9s]

FWIW, David Schoenfield of ESPN.com loves the deals the Brewers made. Gives both the trade and signing an A.

 

Gives the Marlins a C- on the trade.

[liveforoctober]

They needed help in CF, so one of Yelich or Cain would have sufficed. If Cain agreed to terms, then the right move was to walk away from the Marlins offer. If the Brewers and Marlins reached agreement on a deal before Cain signed, then walk away from those negotiations.

 

No, the Brewers problem was more than a CF hole. The Brewers have a serious strikeout problem and they needed to fix that. Lewis Brinson was not going to help that and I think that was a big part of what transpired here. It is much much more than OBP. Cain and Yelich will massively decrease the amount of strikeouts as a team. If Brinson wasn't a big K guy I could see them committing to him at one of the spots, but the reality was he is also a high K guy. Stearn made a wise decision to improve on that by revamping the OF. This was not about filling the CF hole. This was about fixing an offense painfully dependent on HRs with high K rates.

 

We didn't have a CF hole. We had two top prospects(arguably Top 100 in baseball) ready to man CF with great defense....except both featured really high K rates. We need a diversified offense and Stearns saw a huge problem in the outfield. He made moves to reduce the amount of strikeouts while overall improving the defense. Win-Win.

 

The only other thing I would add is that I don't think it is wise, at this stage, to say "why Cain when Yelich" etc. To me it seems probable that Stearns had a fairly massive lineup overhaul in mind ... and these moves all rely on each other in that vision. The magnitude of tonight's deals re-inforce these are not isolated moves.

 

Therefore, it is easy to try to evaluate the Yelich deal as Yelich for Brinson, Diaz, etc .. but I would encourage everyone to hold on for a minute and wait until the off season is over to evaluate the total vision that is taking place.

 

Stearns confidence that Cain was coming likely solidified his comfort in dealing Brinson and Yelich/Cain's arrival make the next move (be it Santana or Thames getting traded, etc), that I'd bet heavily Stearns has already more or less wrapped up, available. Action/Reaction is an everyday thing in all MLB deals ... but the craziness and scope of tonight tells me these two moves and the additional dominoes that are soon to follow are a part of a pre-meditated vision.

 

Therefore in a few weeks' time it might be more appropriate to evaluate the overall vision Stearns' had ... which will look something like:

 

Brewers send: Brinson, Harrison, Diaz, Yamamoto, (Santana), (Aguilar), etc ---> *players in parenthesis are hypothetical*

Brewers receive: Yelich, Cain, (Salazar), (Kipnis), etc ---> *same as above*

 

I think that is the most fair way to evaluate what Stearns' brain is currently doing rather than breaking down/questioning these individually...

[WestCoastCrew]

Five years seems too much for Cain -- three would have been ideal, four palatable. I do like the idea of frontloading the deal, if that is what happens. Also like the reported trade protection declining as the contract progresses -- total no-trade this season, going down each year. There are already questions about Cain's durability.

 

While Cain is much better at putting the bat on the ball and not striking out, Yelich wasn't terrific at not striking out:

 

Santana in 2017: One strikeout every 3.41 PAs

Yelich in 2017: One strikeout every 5.07 PAs

Cain in 2017: One strikeout ever 6.45 PAs

 

Cain and Yelich were just over .360 OBP (Santana .371). Obviously major upgrade from Broxton, so that is where the extra offense will come from.

[TJseven7]

So Braun to RF? Ouch. I'd rather the Brewers release Braun (obviously not going to happen) and kept Santana.

 

Why would Braun go to RF? He is staying in LF where he is better. I would think Yelich will go to RF and Cain in CF. Who do you think was going to LF?

 

Lots of talk with yelich coming up and defensive stats that say Yelich doesn't have a great arm. Yet he posted a gg in lf a year ago. I see yelich in LF. Cain in CF. Braun in right with Phillips as the def rep.

 

With a huge plus defender in LF. And a huge plus defender in CF. Braun in RF doesn't hurt and hurts even less when you can sub in the hired gun in Phillips.

 

I'm seeing Cain got a 60 grade on his arm... so if you follow the astros tea leaves then he's quite possibly our Reddick. Granted with a contract starting 3 years later, for 1 year longer, at 3 mil more per year. (Oy) So Braun Yelich Cain makes sense on that logic. Yelich to LF if Brox is the def rep. Phillips in rf with a yelich lf cain cf swap.

 

But its hard to imagine we paid him this much to move him out of cf where he was in the talks for a GG last year. I feel like our only true RF is Phillips. That defense would be insane. But barring a near full time switch of braun to 1b that's not our path... and talks of shopping phillips makes it unlikely.

 

braun yelich cain it is.

[JCREW]

From MLBTR:

10:38pm: Cain confirmed that he’s headed to Milwaukee in a chat with MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan. “They said from the minute free agency opened that I was on the top of their list,” says Cain. “We just had to work through all the details, and eventually we both got to the numbers we liked.”

 

This just adds plausibility to the idea HighHeat19 mentioned regarding a web of deals that Stearns started spinning back in November.

 

#HighHeatWeBowBeforeYou

#InStearnsWeTrust

[A Swing and A Drive]

Well Eff Yeah!!!

 

Brewers just added their two best players to the team all in one day during the worst hot stove season ever!

 

What makes me the happiest about this signing is that we won't be trading for Jacoby Ellsbury!!!

 

WHat the eff was that all about??? Stupid Yankee fans...

 

Welcome back Lorenzo!!!

[clancyphile]

Five years seems too much for Cain -- three would have been ideal, four palatable. I do like the idea of frontloading the deal, if that is what happens. Also like the reported trade protection declining as the contract progresses -- total no-trade this season, going down each year. There are already questions about Cain's durability.

 

While Cain is much better at putting the bat on the ball and not striking out, Yelich wasn't terrific at not striking out:

 

Santana in 2017: One strikeout every 3.41 PAs

Yelich in 2017: One strikeout every 5.07 PAs

Cain in 2017: One strikeout ever 6.45 PAs

 

Cain and Yelich were just over .360 OBP (Santana .371). Obviously major upgrade from Broxton, so that is where the extra offense will come from.

 

I've been OK with dealing Aguilar for a while... and Broxton as well.

 

Santana's bat will be very good, though. I'd like to keep him around. Dealing Aguilar makes the most sense, but even then, that's 50 games? Unless you want to move Thames to a more part-time role. Thames, though, led the Crew in walks in about 100 fewer ABs than Santana...

[PeaveyFury]

Moving Santana is as much or mostly about his defense, clancy. He was so poor in the OF last year that he detracted much of his offensive value.

[MrTPlush]

Ryan Braun in RF is an absolute tragedy. Ryan Braun, for whatever reason, is exponentially worse in RF vs. LF. In my opinion the worst I have ever seen man RF on a daily basis. Would never happen, but I’d rather see Yelich in CF and Cain in RF if that meant keeping Braun out of RF.

 

Another solid example of how terrible the botched opportunity to trade Braun has been working out for us.

[homer]

Ryan Braun in RF is an absolute tragedy. Ryan Braun, for whatever reason, is exponentially worse in RF vs. LF. In my opinion the worst I have ever seen man RF on a daily basis. Would never happen, but I’d rather see Yelich in CF and Cain in RF if that meant keeping Braun out of RF.

 

Another solid example of how terrible the botched opportunity to trade Braun has been working out for us.

 

Those no-trade clauses are a pain.

[TURBO]

Ryan Braun in RF is an absolute tragedy. Ryan Braun, for whatever reason, is exponentially worse in RF vs. LF. In my opinion the worst I have ever seen man RF on a daily basis. Would never happen, but I’d rather see Yelich in CF and Cain in RF if that meant keeping Braun out of RF.

 

Another solid example of how terrible the botched opportunity to trade Braun has been working out for us.

 

There is no way he was worse than Domingo...

[brewcrewdue80]

Five years seems too much for Cain -- three would have been ideal, four palatable. I do like the idea of frontloading the deal, if that is what happens. Also like the reported trade protection declining as the contract progresses -- total no-trade this season, going down each year. There are already questions about Cain's durability.

 

While Cain is much better at putting the bat on the ball and not striking out, Yelich wasn't terrific at not striking out:

 

Santana in 2017: One strikeout every 3.41 PAs

Yelich in 2017: One strikeout every 5.07 PAs

Cain in 2017: One strikeout ever 6.45 PAs

 

Cain and Yelich were just over .360 OBP (Santana .371). Obviously major upgrade from Broxton, so that is where the extra offense will come from.

 

That is under 20% which is terrific. Not the near 30% of Domingo. I'd guess that 30% would typically be a .230-.245 type of expectation. 25% .250-270 and 20% a .275-.300 Santana's 30HRs and .363BABIP bumped his avg to .278

 

FWIW Braun's Career K rate is 18.3% with a .302 BA.

Mike Trout is at 21.5% K rate in his career.

 

Getting to 20% K rate or lower is where you want your batters at. Brinson's MiLB number is 25.5% (lower than expected)

The under 20% Yelich is at is one of the reasons I like him so much.

 

Put in perspective: Altuve was 12.7% leading baseball in BA at .346 Charlie Blackmon #2 was 18.6% at .331.

[And That]

Ryan Braun in RF is an absolute tragedy. Ryan Braun, for whatever reason, is exponentially worse in RF vs. LF. In my opinion the worst I have ever seen man RF on a daily basis. Would never happen, but I’d rather see Yelich in CF and Cain in RF if that meant keeping Braun out of RF.

 

Another solid example of how terrible the botched opportunity to trade Braun has been working out for us.

 

There is no way he was worse than Domingo...

Yah, to each their own, but I'd say Santana is quite a bit worse than Braun in terms of RF defense.