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Cain to Brewers - 5 years/$80M


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Signing Cain means more than the money on the contract being spent..

I believe the signing of Cain at that amount means the Brewers give up their competitive balance pick in the 2018 draft (between round 1 & 2) and some international signing pool monies.

 

Can anyone follow up on this with the actual impacts....

 

It rotates, and this year it costs the team their 3rd pick, around mid 70s. Another QO sign costs #4

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or Braun finally moves to 1B, they keep Santana in RF, and Thames is gone. That would be my preference.

I might lose control if that payed out, but I doubt it. They still need pitching and Santana gets it.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave
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Give HighHeat some credit... here comes the cascade.

 

I've got Santana to Cleveland for Salazar/Kipnis/prospect(s)

 

This 100 percent... as soon as I saw "we just added cain" my first thought was here comes the dominos!!!

 

100% high heat... you can bow now.

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or Braun finally moves to 1B, they keep Santana in RF, and Thames is gone. That would be my preference.

I might lose control if that payed out, but I doubt it. They still need pitching and Santana gets it.

 

Agreed. But if somehow one of them is going to 1B, which I doubt, then a free agent P signing address that issue just as easily.

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Scary signing IMO. Cain is entering his age 32 season so the back end of this deal are for age 36 and 37 seasons. Defensive decline appears to have already started. DRS has dropped from +18 to +8 (only 614 innings) to +5 and the UZR/150 has gone from +14.5 to +13.6 to +2.4 over the last three years. Played in 155 games last year but over the previous four seasons had only averaged 122 games and only got to 140 games played one time. Can't say I'm too fond of this move.
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A couple nice ZiPS tidbits from Dan Szymborski on Cain:

 

Showing a projected worth of $98M over the 5 years of Cain's contract:

 

 

And also had this to say:

 

ZiPS had Lorenzo Cain as the most desirable free agent position player this winter, after J.D. Martinez.
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Or not. But you are their accountant so.......

 

Wait, so you don't think if Cain declines and isn't good that we're just going to ignore his salary and pretend like we aren't even paying him?

No. I'm saying you have no earthly clue how this affects anything in the future. Maybe he doesn't decline all that much, or at all. Who knows. I know I don't know and I know you don't know. Have a good night now.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave
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Or not. But you are their accountant so.......

 

Wait, so you don't think if Cain declines and isn't good that we're just going to ignore his salary and pretend like we aren't even paying him?

No. I'm saying you have no earthly clue how this affects anything in the future. Maybe he doesn't decline all that much, or at all. Who knows. I know I don't know and I know you don't know. Have a good night now.

Tone down the condescension, please. Thank you!

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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Yea this deal is a bit tough to swallow. Last we heard was 4 year deal for him is the most he had, 5th year is gonna hurt. I mean, this is more than what Cobb is going to get right? Maybe they'll do both but otherwise I think I'd rather buy the P. Santana deal has to be for a guy who can start now as I doubt they spend another 80+ mil. Have to wait to judge it all until the last move(s) come out.
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Brewer Fanatic Contributor
A lot can happen between now and five years from now. The key for me is that these moves make the Brewers contenders pending the acquisition of another pitcher. Not only this year but the next year or two as well.
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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Both Cain & Yelich are moving from home outfields with a lot of ground to cover to a comparatively smaller home outfield at Miller Park.

 

Intuitively that seems like it would help to some degree, but the defensive metrics are so wonky that who really knows.

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Brewers want to minimize Ks. The motive here is that obvious...

 

I thought they wanted to win.

 

Follow the astros... i did a big write up about this last season as we were imploding. Astros ckear cut Ks going into last year. We were building up and thats fine but to polish the weaponry the removal of Ks was absolutely critical. Not saying I know the exact metrics but there's a distinct line and a tipping point im certain. We are getting back under that line.

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