Cain to Brewers - 5 years/$80M

[tmwiese55]

In this case TB is not in 'need' to trade Archer. They can use him as a chip to try and demand as much as they think they can, maybe they'll cave later and take what they can get, maybe they'll hold him and trade at the deadline or next offseason But there's no deadline here and he's signed for 4 years, no rush for them so can try to get as much as they can.

 

They need to be won over and after what MKE just did they could have seen it as an opportunity to get more for any number of reasons. One, that the team has a glut of OF now. Two, they clearly showed they're in all in mode and know they can't half #$@ it. Three, saw what MIA got and what that means for where they should value Archer. And there's a few more beyond that someone else listed as well.

 

Of course we don't know for sure TBs reasons but I don't agree with your assessment that leverage doesn't exist. Might have been a factor here, might not have. But it comes into play in almost any business negotiation. And I didn't see anyone say they were trying to beat anyone, just that the new info they received that day could have made them think they could extract more in the deal so they wanted to try doing it. Or possibly they would have ended up making the same counter offer regardless after they talked about the proposed deal amongst themselves. Maybe they'll cave, maybe MKE will move on, maybe MKE will cave and pay more. That's the game of chess they're playing.

[MadThinker88]

...

Plus if that were how it works, then Stearns could have easily just waited to announce the Cain signing until after any Santana trade was finalized.

 

I get your point but there is always the chance the news of Cain signing was going to break via other means.

[Eye Black]

I went back and listened to the Statcast Podcast from 1/9/18 which spends the first part of the show discussing comps for Lorenzo Cain in order to determine how he might age.

 

The parameters of their search were to find players since since 1993 that had a three year span with at least 1,000 total plate appearances between either ages 28-30 or ages 29-31 who maintained a wRC+ between 110-120 with a positive defensive WAR value while playing greater than 25% of their time in centerfield. The search yielded ten players total. They dismissed two of the search results as not being very good comps, Garret Anderson (because he was never all that good defensively) and Andruw Jones (because he was an elite level player in his 20’s who fell off dramatically when reaching his 30’s), which brought the list down to eight similar profiles:

 

Torii Hunter

 

Mike Cameron

 

Reggie Sanders

 

Kenny Lofton

 

Shane Victorino

 

Randy Winn

 

Curtis Granderson

 

Brett Gardner

 

They felt that Torii Hunter and Mike Cameron were the two best comps for Lorenzo Cain. I would be very happy if Cain went on to match either of those players into his mid-30’s.

[stoutdude04]

If only there was a DH in the NL and we may not be having this problem anyways. Crazy to me that half the league gets hamstrung having too many options for positions and the other half of the league can accommodate this situation better. Oh well, he's a Brewer now, so I am excited to see what he and Yelich can do at the top of the lineup.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The 30+ thing is way overstated. If this were football but I'd care but it's baseball. Plenty of guys last well into their 30s and play very well. One like Cain who's taken great care of himself, it isn't a stretch to think he'll remain productive for at least 3-4 years.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Torii Hunter

 

Mike Cameron

 

Reggie Sanders

 

Kenny Lofton

 

Shane Victorino

 

Randy Winn

 

Curtis Granderson

 

Brett Gardner

 

 

I'm not too worried about the contract for a number of reasons, but I don't find this reassuring. It looks like a case of survivorship bias because it only includes guys who had already proven they could be excellent cf's at 30 and beyond. It's a very small data set in comparison with much more extensive data on guys like Carlos Gomez and Andrew McCutchen falling off pretty dramatically in their upper 20's. There's no question that it's hard to play cf effectively past 30 and there's no question that athletic decline accelerates and the long-term effects of injuries start to accumulate at that age. I think Cain is worth the gamble but I'd be pleasantly surprised if he's as good as Mike Cameron, who was a rare exception, at the same age. Luck is likely to be a huge factor.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Cameron was 35 by the time he was playing for the Brewers. He is a freak of nature athletically, but Cain isn't 35. That's 3 years away.

 

He most likely will drop off by the end of this deal, but I think it's likely you get 3 solid years out of him and possibly more. As of today, the dude can still fly. Gomez was never as consistent a player. He was always an erratic player offensively.

 

Again, I just think way too much is made of age. There are good older players all over baseball. These guys aren't in their 50s, they're world class athletes who are playing well longer than ever before. I reiterate that I expect some drop-off the last year or two, but that is a price you pay for FA in any sport. Solid veterans with a history of success are never the best value propositions. You have to pay for past performance when you delve into FA. You often overpay. If you want players like this, that's the trade-off you make. It's much easier to predict decent performance from Cain than it is to search the scrap heap for the next Travis Shaw.

[coolhandluke121]

Cameron was 35 by the time he was playing for the Brewers. He is a freak of nature athletically, but Cain isn't 35. That's 3 years away.

 

 

Right, that's what I'm saying. I'm not really worried about the contract but the fact that Cameron was so effective at 35 doesn't make me think Cain will be. Cameron was the exception. If Cain is that good in 3 years, that will just be a bonus.

[SRB]

I'm not too worried about the contract for a number of reasons, but I don't find this reassuring. It looks like a case of survivorship bias because it only includes guys who had already proven they could be excellent cf's at 30 and beyond. It's a very small data set in comparison with much more extensive data on guys like Carlos Gomez and Andrew McCutchen falling off pretty dramatically in their upper 20's. There's no question that it's hard to play cf effectively past 30 and there's no question that athletic decline accelerates and the long-term effects of injuries start to accumulate at that age. I think Cain is worth the gamble but I'd be pleasantly surprised if he's as good as Mike Cameron, who was a rare exception, at the same age. Luck is likely to be a huge factor.

 

Coming at it from a non-statistical angle, I think there are guy who are elite defenders in CF because of their incredible speed and physical athleticism, and there are guy who are elite defenders in CF because of their instincts and feel for the position (with the caveat that obviously all of these guys are good athletes).

 

I'm guessing Stearns and company are very confident Cain falls into the latter category. (Jim Edmonds comes to mind as a perfect example, just in terms of defense. He was a Gold Glove defender all the way through his 30s and not because he was stealing 60 SB per season by then)

[Jenkins5]

I'm not too worried about the contract for a number of reasons, but I don't find this reassuring. It looks like a case of survivorship bias because it only includes guys who had already proven they could be excellent cf's at 30 and beyond. It's a very small data set in comparison with much more extensive data on guys like Carlos Gomez and Andrew McCutchen falling off pretty dramatically in their upper 20's. There's no question that it's hard to play cf effectively past 30 and there's no question that athletic decline accelerates and the long-term effects of injuries start to accumulate at that age. I think Cain is worth the gamble but I'd be pleasantly surprised if he's as good as Mike Cameron, who was a rare exception, at the same age. Luck is likely to be a huge factor.

 

Coming at it from a non-statistical angle, I think there are guy who are elite defenders in CF because of their incredible speed and physical athleticism, and there are guy who are elite defenders in CF because of their instincts and feel for the position (with the caveat that obviously all of these guys are good athletes).

 

I'm guessing Stearns and company are very confident Cain falls into the latter category. (Jim Edmonds comes to mind as a perfect example, just in terms of defense. He was a Gold Glove defender all the way through his 30s and not because he was stealing 60 SB per season by then)

 

Agree, it is like many of the great WRs in NFL who last. You look at Jerry Rice, Chris Carters & such.... not elite athletes but they were so good at routes, timing, adjusting, and know exactly where to be when. Like CFs WR is a position where some guys get away with being elite athletes but others just have elite instincts, smarts, technique and do every little thing right. Antonio Brown is not an elite athlete. He is not big like Julio. He is not Tyreke Hill fast but technique, instincts, smarts are elite. Guys like Edmonds same. He is no freak athlete but man he could play out there & did for long time! Think Cain is similar. Great athlete but just elite instincts, routes, & effort. Does all little things right. Will go all out for every ball his way.

[clancyphile]

Cameron was 35 by the time he was playing for the Brewers. He is a freak of nature athletically, but Cain isn't 35. That's 3 years away.

 

 

Right, that's what I'm saying. I'm not really worried about the contract but the fact that Cameron was so effective at 35 doesn't make me think Cain will be. Cameron was the exception. If Cain is that good in 3 years, that will just be a bonus.

 

Cain will be very good.

 

Not in the same way as Cameron, whose offensive profile was power and OBP, with his speed fading. Cain's more likely to be a batting average/speed guy, with OBP improving as the speed fades.

 

I don't think Cain's skills are as frangible as Camerons, and if the OBP is improving, I think he is well worth the contract.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Coming at it from a non-statistical angle, I think there are guy who are elite defenders in CF because of their incredible speed and physical athleticism, and there are guy who are elite defenders in CF because of their instincts and feel for the position (with the caveat that obviously all of these guys are good athletes).

 

I'm guessing Stearns and company are very confident Cain falls into the latter category. (Jim Edmonds comes to mind as a perfect example, just in terms of defense. He was a Gold Glove defender all the way through his 30s and not because he was stealing 60 SB per season by then)

 

That's certainly true, and Cameron was in that category as well. I wasn't just talking about being able to play cf at 35 though, because I think Cain will be able to do that. I was talking about whether he will be as valuable as Cameron or Edmonds at the same age, which I highly doubt. Those guys were good for 20+ homers per season, and Edmonds occasionally hit 40. Power hitters often hold value at the plate a little longer.

 

I love the signing and the player, but I don't think he's going to be very good at 35, and that's fine.

[TJseven7]

Not good at 35, sure. He's put up huge war numbers 2 of the last 3 and the other wasn't too shabby despite struggling with injuries. He could decline and be 4 war. 4-3-3 in the next 3 is his contracts worth and even at 2 war he's worth his yearly salaries. Shouldn't be that hard to eat some money and flip him in either of his last 2 years.

 

The 13 or so mil we pay him this year, I'd expect a very solid value there.

[packer822]

I don't get why everyone thinks lo cain is going to be bad when the contract is in its 4th and 5th years.....in ichiros age 32 till age 36 years his ave was 322.....351...310...352...315...guys that stay in shape and love the game can still play at a high level in their mid 30s.....give the guy a chance before we throw him out to the pasture.....

[StearnsFTW]

The only thing that scares me about Cain is his injury history. He's had a lot of leg/groin injuries which will get tougher to deal with as he gets older.

 

He's missed 164 games the last 5 years. That's not insignificant. And from a quick & dirty google search, they all seem to be lower body issues.

[JohnBriggs12]

The only thing that scares me about Cain is his injury history. He's had a lot of leg/groin injuries which will get tougher to deal with as he gets older.

 

He's missed 164 games the last 5 years. That's not insignificant. And from a quick & dirty google search, they all seem to be lower body issues.

 

Two of the last 3 years he's topped 600 plate appearances. He's coming off a year where he played 155 games and made 645 PA. That's 38 more PA than any Brewer in 2017. Paul Molitor had a lot of lower leg injuries early in his career and missed a lot of time. Injuries are a risk for any player. I don't see Cain has having any greater risk.

[MrTPlush]

I don't get why everyone thinks lo cain is going to be bad when the contract is in its 4th and 5th years.....in ichiros age 32 till age 36 years his ave was 322.....351...310...352...315...guys that stay in shape and love the game can still play at a high level in their mid 30s.....give the guy a chance before we throw him out to the pasture.....

 

I think you need a better example. Ichiro is a slap hitting all contact player. I’d expect someone like that to age really well. But who know maybe I am wrong.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Not sure why fans on this board really give a rip about 2021 and 2022. I'm kind of focused on 2018 myself. Just bought my Cubs tickets for April.

[adambr2]

Not sure why fans on this board really give a rip about 2021 and 2022. I'm kind of focused on 2018 myself. Just bought my Cubs tickets for April.

 

I'm not opposed to the Cain signing at all but I definitely give a rip about 2021 and 2022 because I plan on being a Brewer fan then and I would like to enjoy those seasons as much as I would like to enjoy this one.

 

To each their own but Stearns had better care about 2021 and 2022 or he'd be ill suited for his job.

[sveumrules]

Jeff Sullivan with an interesting look at Lorenzo Cain's career best walk rate & how he's accomplishing it over at FanGraphs...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lorenzo-cain-is-still-getting-better/