Cain to Brewers - 5 years/$80M

[TJseven7]

Cain walked a career best 54 times last year. He was sub 2k per bb. That's a little bit of old man game, seasoned vet showing up. Plate discipline like that will carry his war a long way.

[TURBO]

Hopefully Cain doesn't get infected with the swing and a miss virus from hanging around our guys...

 

(blue ?)

[Eye Black]

In Ken Rosenthal’s most recent Article at The Athletic he followed up with his sources on the Brewers decision to sign Cain. He brings up that at first glance it is odd that one of the more analytical teams would sign a 32-year old to a 5 year, $80 million contract when they are trying to manage risk. He said that according to sources with knowledge of the club’s thinking they believe he has performed at such a high level that he should provide sufficient production even as he declines. Rosenthal points out that Cains average annual value (per Fangraphs WAR estimates) over the last four seasons has been $35 million (as in worth $35 million annually on average). They also see signs that he is improving at a time of his career when other players typically regress. Rosenthal cites an example being that Cain’s walk rate in 2017 was the highest of his career while his strikeout rate was the lowest he has had.

[KeithStone53151]

In Ken Rosenthal’s most recent Article at The Athletic he followed up with his sources on the Brewers decision to sign Cain. He brings up that at first glance it is odd that one of the more analytical teams would sign a 32-year old to a 5 year, $80 million contract when they are trying to manage risk. He said that according to sources with knowledge of the club’s thinking they believe he has performed at such a high level that he should provide sufficient production even as he declines. Rosenthal points out that Cains average annual value (per Fangraphs WAR estimates) over the last four seasons has been $35 million (as in worth $35 million annually on average). They also see signs that he is improving at a time of his career when other players typically regress. Rosenthal cites an example being that Cain’s walk rate in 2017 was the highest of his career while his strikeout rate was the lowest he has had.

 

So what you're basically saying is, he's like the hitting version of losing the big fastball but improving your off speed stuff to remain an effective pitcher for longer? Maybe his speed/defense/steals regress a bit, but obp and power improve and he remains productive all 5 years...here's hoping.

[adambr2]

We are one of the more analytical teams? I guess we've come a long ways since signing Jeff Suppan because he was an NLCS gamer!

[3and2Fastball]

We are one of the more analytical teams? I guess we've come a long ways since signing Jeff Suppan because he was an NLCS gamer!

 

That was Doug Melvin. Stearns brought in a whole new paradigm.

[FVBrewerFan]

We are one of the more analytical teams? I guess we've come a long ways since signing Jeff Suppan because he was an NLCS gamer!

 

That was Doug Melvin. Stearns brought in a whole new paradigm.

 

Actually that was Mark A. But either way, analytics were just coming into acceptance back then. Melvin was one of the first to buy in, using defensive shifts in a big way as an example.

[brewmann04]

I think Ryan will be open to the idea seems like a team player.

[brewerfan82]

Is Haudricourt wrong on this?

 

For Cain, they lost third rounder. If sign another QO free agent, I think they lose fourth rounder. And the slot money, which is big because you can use that for lower signings you don't want to lose.

 

I've seen him post this a couple times including once that this is what the league informed the Brewers, but it seems to contradict what I've seen elsewhere, including here where a poster posted the rule on this which makes it sound like we lose our 3rd highest pick, not the 3rd rounder...

[adambr2]

Haudricourt is correct. Competitive balance picks are protected.

[82brewcrew82]

Haudricourt is correct. Competitive balance picks are protected.

Correct. We lose the third round pick, not the third pick.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Haudricourt is correct. Competitive balance picks are protected.

Correct. We lose the third round pick, not the third pick.

 

The way I understood it is now, if they were to sign a player like Cobb, Lynn or Moustakis, it would go down the line .... 4th rounder, 5th rounder and so on. I'm not sure if there is a limit on the number of draft picks you can lose, though.

[MadThinker88]

Haudricourt is correct. Competitive balance picks are protected.

Correct. We lose the third round pick, not the third pick.

 

Starting in 2018 the competitive balance picks are protected. Didn't realize that & why I debated the point earlier.

 

Sorry to cause any confusion.

[monty57]

Love Cain, wish we had never traded him away. My concern is that just like we wish we could trade Braun now but can't, we will be in a similar situation in a couple of years with Cain. I have an aversion to signing guys into their mid-to-late 30's, and I am skeptical if analytical study is able to predict which guys will "age well." Insurance companies have been using math in an effort to try to do that for years. They have some success when putting people into large groups, but would never assume to be able to figure it out on an individual basis.

 

The theory that "he'll pay for himself in the first few years and underperform in the final years" seems to be what every team in baseball is getting away from. That just means that we're looking to do well for a couple of seasons and will then likely have another anchor on our performance a few years from now. That would be a little more palatable if we were the proverbial "one player away from the World Series," but I don't think we're there yet. His best seasons may be when we're not quite ready, and by the time we're ready he'll be hit by the "age bug."

 

Smoltz is about as "old school, union guy" as there is. Last night he was saying that when he was playing no one got deals more than 3-4 years, and he understood why teams were acting the way they are since so many of these deals fail miserably. Granted, he was talking about $100M deals, but let's be honest, an $80M deal to the Brewers is riskier than a $100M deal to a bigger market team.

[brewcrewdue80]

Haudricourt is correct. Competitive balance picks are protected.

Correct. We lose the third round pick, not the third pick.

 

Starting in 2018 the competitive balance picks are protected. Didn't realize that & why I debated the point earlier.

 

Sorry to cause any confusion.

 

I too didn't know that and thought it was the 3rd pick...which MLBTR noted it to be as #73. Clearly not a 3rd round pick which must be in the 90s?

 

This makes signing Cain even a lil better than it already is. I mean a 3rd round MLB draft choice? What is that less than 25% of even making a ML roster?

[brewerfan82]

Thanks for the clarification, that's great news!

[pacopete4]

Another reason Stearns was probably good to go on this type of transaction. Taking advantage of the rules as best he can.

[Lathund]

Posted this in the Yelich trade as well, but BP Milwaukee looked at the two big OF moves, and seem to really like the Cain signing

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/30/cain-and-yelich-renegotiating-surplus/

[logan82]

Gut reaction is gross. Hate 5 years for a guy on the wrong side of 30. Also thought we had a few CF in the minors.

[trwi7]

Gut reaction is gross. Hate 5 years for a guy on the wrong side of 30. Also thought we had a few CF in the minors.

 

We traded them for another outfielder.

[tmwiese55]

One has to think Stearns was fairly sure he had a Santana deal lined up when the two big OF moves happened. But somehow it fell through. I wonder if now in hindsight they're wondering if they should have only done the Yelich trade and played him in CF. Then took this Cain money and bought a SP. Issue of course is it would be going with a rather weak defensive OF and we know that was a priority in making the moves. I'd guess they still do both moves and are confident they'll figure out a resolution to the rest at some point in the next couple weeks.

[JosephC]

One has to think Stearns was fairly sure he had a Santana deal lined up when the two big OF moves happened.

 

As hard as it is to believe, maybe it's even more likely Stearns thought he had a deal to move Braun. Yelich is best in left which is the spot Braun occupies. It's also much easier to add Cain's 16 million annual salary if all of Braun's remaining money is taken off the books. I can't find a single trade scenario with Braun that makes sense, but unexpected trades happen all the time and if one just steps back and looks at the additions of Yelich and Cain, the positions they are best at and all the money involved...it does make more sense that the Brewers could have had a deal lined up that included Braun instead of Santana.

[coolhandluke121]

Braun has a no-trade clause and has indicated that he would reluctantly waive it for the right situation if the Brewers weren't competitive. I really don't think he has any intention of doing so at this point.

[TURBO]

Braun has a no-trade clause and has indicated that he would reluctantly waive it for the right situation if the Brewers weren't competitive. I really don't think he has any intention of doing so at this point.

 

No doubt, why would he? He can see we are trending up, and is probably excited to be a part of it. Don't mind him retiring a Brewer, however, is his presence going to be a help, or a hindrance in the next couple of years? We shall see.

[SRB]

One has to think Stearns was fairly sure he had a Santana deal lined up when the two big OF moves happened. But somehow it fell through. I wonder if now in hindsight they're wondering if they should have only done the Yelich trade and played him in CF. Then took this Cain money and bought a SP. Issue of course is it would be going with a rather weak defensive OF and we know that was a priority in making the moves. I'd guess they still do both moves and are confident they'll figure out a resolution to the rest at some point in the next couple weeks.

 

I don't think that kind of leverage comes into play in real life. Teams make trades because they both think they are winning, not because they want to "beat" the other team by trying to milk an extra prospect from a team you know needs to trade a guy.

 

Plus if that were how it works, then Stearns could have easily just waited to announce the Cain signing until after any Santana trade was finalized.