Cain to Brewers - 5 years/$80M

[pacopete4]

Nor is $16M a year an overpay for Cain's production. Why do you keep saying that? It's not 2003 anymore. MLBTR pegged him for $17.5M per season.

 

We'll see if people are singing that tune in year 4 and 5 of this contract...

 

The life of the MLB. There will probably always be a contract or two that players might not live up to every year. Not a great reason to not make deals.

[brewcrewdue80]

Nor is $16M a year an overpay for Cain's production. Why do you keep saying that? It's not 2003 anymore. MLBTR pegged him for $17.5M per season.

 

We'll see if people are singing that tune in year 4 and 5 of this contract...

 

1 trip to the WS in the next 3 years Cain will be able pitch every 5 days and people won't care to what he's being paid.

[TURBO]

Nor is $16M a year an overpay for Cain's production. Why do you keep saying that? It's not 2003 anymore. MLBTR pegged him for $17.5M per season.

 

We'll see if people are singing that tune in year 4 and 5 of this contract...

 

The life of the MLB. There will probably always be a contract or two that players might not live up to every year. Not a great reason to not make deals.

 

Never said we shouldn't have made the deal, but I'd have rather sunk that $ into a starting pitcher than an outfielder.

[pacopete4]

 

We'll see if people are singing that tune in year 4 and 5 of this contract...

 

The life of the MLB. There will probably always be a contract or two that players might not live up to every year. Not a great reason to not make deals.

 

Never said we shouldn't have made the deal, but I'd have rather sunk that $ into a starting pitcher than an outfielder.

 

You change with the wind. One minutes it’s one thing. The next, another. Stearns will be a good boy and find pitching too.

[JosephC]

Per Hardicourt

 

new OF Lorenzo Cain's contract:

$13 million in '18,

$14 million in '19,

$15 million in '20,

$16 million in '21,

$17 million in '22.

 

Then $1 million deferred each year for five years afterward.

 

Given our current lower payroll, i wish those salaries were revered, starting at 17 million this year and ending at 13 million in 2022.

 

It doesn't make any sense in the real world unless there is some barrier the team would be trying to stay under (salary cap) in 2021 or 2022. And even if the Brewers were the like the Dodgers it wouldn't matter because the luxury tax calculations don't use the numbers for individual seasons, but rather takes the average annual value and assigns that number for each season. If the Brewers pay Cain 17 million now instead of 13 million, they would lose all the investment income they could gain by having that extra four million dollars in pocket now. Take four million and if it returns an average of 8% each of the next four seasons it's 5.44 million dollars. Under those circumstances Attanasio would be throwing away 1.44 million dollars by paying Cain 17 million dollars in 2018 and 13 million dollars in 2022.

 

This strategy does work great in Out of the Park Baseball where I use it frequently with positive results!

[brewcrewdue80]

Per Hardicourt

 

new OF Lorenzo Cain's contract:

$13 million in '18,

$14 million in '19,

$15 million in '20,

$16 million in '21,

$17 million in '22.

 

Then $1 million deferred each year for five years afterward.

 

Given our current lower payroll, i wish those salaries were revered, starting at 17 million this year and ending at 13 million in 2022.

 

I think this is more on the account of Braun's contract 20,19,17, and 15 reducing so the effect on both is essentially the same.

 

You would also leave a higher amount to spend on the next 4year FA signing? while having Braun's contract end, along with Chacin/Thames coming off the books.

[igor67]

The problem with the investment theory as applied to delaying payments. Is that I have seen precious little evidence that teams actually manage payroll savings in that manner. It appears instead that the payroll is set every year as a more or less fixed number that is determined by anticipated revenue.

 

In short payroll savings = profit which usually seems to disappear into ownership pockets instead of being reinvested. Now there is some anecdotal evidence that some owners do invest in other areas from time to time, but they aren't out there systematically buying mutual funds and sitting on the money to earn interest for the team.

[adambr2]

Total theory on my part but I would guess the Brewers could sustain a $140M payroll for the duration of the Yelich/Cain years if they really wanted to.

 

Based on the fact that they carried around $100M in payroll in years that would now be around $120M in today's dollars, I would set $120M as the normal absolute maximum that we could operate at with regularity where we could remain profitable as long as we remained competitive.

 

So you would need to come up with $100M in additional income to cover the difference over 5 years. There's $50M coming to each team from the Bamtech sale (making it kind of shocking that this off-season has been so slow). Operating income was around $60M in 2016 and I would guess even more in 2017 based on the low payroll. So there's definitely money saved over the last couple seasons.

 

Just my crude estimates -- Really comes down to how much Mark A. is willing to invest back and how much he wants to profit himself. I don't expect him to operate at a loss, certainly. That said -- he bought this franchise for $223M in 2005, it's now worth about $1 billion. So he's certainly doing quite well off this investment.

[SRB]

If anyone feels bad about what the Brewers are paying Cain, just look up what the Cubs are stuck paying Jason Heyward and laugh and laugh.

[brooks_quichenick]

Mark A's pocketbook is going to be juuuust fine regardless. He (and every MLB owner) are making ridiculous profits, so this idea that we're going to be hamstrung by a 5 year $80 million contract is just laughable and anti-labor/pro ownership.

[MrTPlush]

I am not too sure all that saved money would actually be used in the way you are describing. Are we really going to say we saved $100mil the past couple years so we are going to sign Darvish and in the future go over the typical payroll by his contract amount if we have to? Yaaaaaah I don't know.

 

That $140mil payroll number might be accurate if the Brewers would actually increase payroll by inflation and you take into account a new TV deal. But it seems steep...doubt that happens anytime soon.

[markedman5]

Total theory on my part but I would guess the Brewers could sustain a $140M payroll for the duration of the Yelich/Cain years if they really wanted to.

 

Based on the fact that they carried around $100M in payroll in years that would now be around $120M in today's dollars, I would set $120M as the normal absolute maximum that we could operate at with regularity where we could remain profitable as long as we remained competitive.

 

So you would need to come up with $100M in additional income to cover the difference over 5 years. There's $50M coming to each team from the Bamtech sale (making it kind of shocking that this off-season has been so slow). Operating income was around $60M in 2016 and I would guess even more in 2017 based on the low payroll. So there's definitely money saved over the last couple seasons.

 

Just my crude estimates -- Really comes down to how much Mark A. is willing to invest back and how much he wants to profit himself. I don't expect him to operate at a loss, certainly. That said -- he bought this franchise for $223M in 2005, it's now worth about $1 billion. So he's certainly doing quite well off this investment.

 

What years did they carry a 100 million payroll that would be 120 million in today's dollars?

 

http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm#2008payroll

 

I don't see it.

 

80M in 2008 would be 93M today. 97 M in 2012 would be 106M today. 103M in 2014 would be just under 109 today. 105M in 2015 would be 109M today

 

Seems like 110 has been the max and we have never done it for 5 straight years.

[adambr2]

Total theory on my part but I would guess the Brewers could sustain a $140M payroll for the duration of the Yelich/Cain years if they really wanted to.

 

Based on the fact that they carried around $100M in payroll in years that would now be around $120M in today's dollars, I would set $120M as the normal absolute maximum that we could operate at with regularity where we could remain profitable as long as we remained competitive.

 

So you would need to come up with $100M in additional income to cover the difference over 5 years. There's $50M coming to each team from the Bamtech sale (making it kind of shocking that this off-season has been so slow). Operating income was around $60M in 2016 and I would guess even more in 2017 based on the low payroll. So there's definitely money saved over the last couple seasons.

 

Just my crude estimates -- Really comes down to how much Mark A. is willing to invest back and how much he wants to profit himself. I don't expect him to operate at a loss, certainly. That said -- he bought this franchise for $223M in 2005, it's now worth about $1 billion. So he's certainly doing quite well off this investment.

 

What years did they carry a 100 million payroll that would be 120 million in today's dollars?

 

http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm#2008payroll

 

I don't see it.

 

80M in 2008 would be 93M today. 97 M in 2012 would be 106M today. 103M in 2014 would be just under 109 today. 105M in 2015 would be 109M today

 

Seems like 110 has been the max and we have never done it for 5 straight years.

 

Good point, I was going off someone else's numbers but based on what you quote it does seem like they top out at 110 or so.

 

Of course that still discludes whatever they decide to do with that extra $50M.

[danzig6767]

Mark A's pocketbook is going to be juuuust fine regardless. He (and every MLB owner) are making ridiculous profits, so this idea that we're going to be hamstrung by a 5 year $80 million contract is just laughable and anti-labor/pro ownership.

Attanasio had to make a ton of cash last season. Lowest payroll in baseball, yet 10th in average attendance, revenue sharing money, local TV money, national TV money, along with other revenue streams.

 

Attanasio has shown that he isn't a cheap owner looking to just get even richer off his team compared to some owners, but i'm with you. Between profits and the value of the team probably tripling, buying the Brewers has been a fabulous financial investment for him and he gets to have the fun of being a pro sports owner.

[MrTPlush]

They aren't hamstrung on cash for next year...no one said that. The problem is a few years down the line. There isn't major salary coming off the books until Ryan Braun rides off into the sunset. Arbitration and minor additions are really going to add up in the next few years. We can't max out this year or the pot is going to overflow later on. It is impossible to know what the Brewers are willing to max out at in 3 years or so which makes it hard to know if they can add Arrita/Darvish or not.

 

I really don't think all that money saved in the past couple years is going to increase payroll. I don't think any baseball team is ran that way. That money was invested into non payroll projects. They had a major renovation for the food last year and now they are renovating the spring training site. That is how that money was spent.

[rickh150]

Count me as one who is skeptical of this move....

A lot of money given to a guy on the backside of his career. His d and off #'s will decline in the contract.

We have quality depth in the OF, especially with the addition of Yelich.

The odd man out (Santana) as of now, has 4 years left, is young and presumably will get somewhat better as he gets into his late 20's, will will be half as cheap as Cain, and with arbitration isn't getting guaranteed money. A trade of Santana for a good starting pitcher erases some of the criticism, however.

The other saving grace, why I'm skeptical and not against, is that he Lord willing will make more contact with runners on and will give us a reliable bat that can get that run is n from 3B. His d is also above average and presumably will be for most of the contract.

[yfinn6]

If anyone feels bad about what the Brewers are paying Cain, just look up what the Cubs are stuck paying Jason Heyward and laugh and laugh.

 

Seriously.

 

I haven't looked them up, but are Cain and Yelich's contracts combined still less money than what Heyward is getting?

[pacopete4]

If anyone feels bad about what the Brewers are paying Cain, just look up what the Cubs are stuck paying Jason Heyward and laugh and laugh.

 

Seriously.

 

I haven't looked them up, but are Cain and Yelich's contracts combined still less money than what Heyward is getting?

 

They are paying him $21-$22M each year for the next six seasons.

[yfinn6]

If anyone feels bad about what the Brewers are paying Cain, just look up what the Cubs are stuck paying Jason Heyward and laugh and laugh.

 

Seriously.

 

I haven't looked them up, but are Cain and Yelich's contracts combined still less money than what Heyward is getting?

 

They are paying him $21-$22M each year for the next six seasons.

 

[PinaMadness]

Cain will be taking Sedar's #6 and is also rumored that Sedar will take #80 to match the $80 million Cain will make. I think it's because 80 will also match the number of times this year he foolishly waves around runners into an easy out at the plate.

[adambr2]

Sedar should just be grateful to still have a team-provided jersey.

[TJseven7]

Sedar should just be grateful to still have a team-provided jersey.

 

Yup... ugh. At least as a 3b coach I think a lot of little league coaches could rival him.

[splitterpfj]

I love Lorenzo Cain, for 2018 and 2019 I just love the move, each year after that will make me nervous.

 

Free agency almost always brings "bad money" on the back half of a deal, because you're buying a guy at or near the end of his prime, and if he's got multiple bidders, the winning team had to stretch to get it done. I'll bet the last two years of this deal aren't real pretty, but I'd much rather root for a team that will honestly try to win it all, than to watch a team get close, sit, and then fall back (Pittsburgh, I'm looking at you).

 

Go Lo'!

[rickh150]

I love Lorenzo Cain, for 2018 and 2019 I just love the move, each year after that will make me nervous.

 

Free agency almost always brings "bad money" on the back half of a deal, because you're buying a guy at or near the end of his prime, and if he's got multiple bidders, the winning team had to stretch to get it done. I'll bet the last two years of this deal aren't real pretty, but I'd much rather root for a team that will honestly try to win it all, than to watch a team get close, sit, and then fall back (Pittsburgh, I'm looking at you).

 

Go Lo'!

 

I tend to agree with most of this... We overplayed but it hopefully will be part of the reason we are in the playoffs in the next few years.

[3and2Fastball]

Cain in 2020-2022 will probably be similar to Mike Cameron. A great veteran leader, a solid defender, takes good at bats, gives you a chance to win... I think it was an absolutely brilliant move bringing in Cain. The guy is everything you could possibly want in a competitor and a leader. The swing & miss Brewers of Sept 2017 were an embarrassment. A not yet ready for Prime Time crew...

 

Cain & Yelich are huge steps in the right direction