Cain to Brewers - 5 years/$80M

[Crash2303]

Hot Take

Brinson will put up a higher WAR every year of Cain’s new contract, following this season, and he won’t miss him by much this year.

[brooks_quichenick]

Paraphrasing here -

 

Reporter: "Lorenzo, what do you remember about Craig when you were a rookie?"

 

Lorenzo: "Old... quiet"

 

haha

[MrTPlush]

Stearns just said in his press conference that Cain will be the primary CF with Yelich covering CF sometimes. He also said they will explore the idea of Braun at 1b, both sides are open to it. That throws a bit of a wrench in things...

 

I mean if you believe everything Stearns says to a T. What else could he have said today? Honest question. That we are searching for somewhere to send Santana?

[MadScientist]

Stearns just said in his press conference that Cain will be the primary CF with Yelich covering CF sometimes. He also said they will explore the idea of Braun at 1b, both sides are open to it. That throws a bit of a wrench in things...

 

Really hope they keep Phillips. Between Braun at 1st and other days off for him, it could lead to 60+ starts available for Phillips. I want to see a runner at 3rd thrown out at home on a base hit to left.

[KeithStone53151]

Stearns just said in his press conference that Cain will be the primary CF with Yelich covering CF sometimes. He also said they will explore the idea of Braun at 1b, both sides are open to it. That throws a bit of a wrench in things...

 

I mean if you believe everything Stearns says to a T. What else could he have said today? Honest question. That we are searching for somewhere to send Santana?

 

That's definitely a fair point. If you believe HH, a Santana deal has already been made and will likely be announced very soon. Even if Santana leaves, maybe they want Phillips in RF and move Braun to 1b. You could easily argue making a comment like that tells teams we are shopping Aguilar, which if Braun actually moves to 1b then Aguilar is long gone guaranteed.

[KeithStone53151]

Stearns just said in his press conference that Cain will be the primary CF with Yelich covering CF sometimes. He also said they will explore the idea of Braun at 1b, both sides are open to it. That throws a bit of a wrench in things...

 

Really hope they keep Phillips. Between Braun at 1st and other days off for him, it could lead to 60+ starts available for Phillips. I want to see a runner at 3rd thrown out at home on a base hit to left.

 

If Braun moves to 1b part time or full time, I imagine Yelich would play LF and Phillips/Broxton/Santana in RF depending on the moves made. So those Phillips throws will come from right, but they'll be just as fun. I want to see another base runner feign a move to home and go "wow" as he watches the smoke from Phillips cannon whiz by.

[Bench Coach 5]

Per Hardicourt

 

new OF Lorenzo Cain's contract:

$13 million in '18,

$14 million in '19,

$15 million in '20,

$16 million in '21,

$17 million in '22.

 

Then $1 million deferred each year for five years afterward.

[And That]

In other words the Brewers have about $5 million more to spend that I thought they did. Nice!

[Bench Coach 5]

In other words the Brewers have about $5 million more to spend that I thought they did. Nice!

 

Yes. That's the positive, not happy about Cain getting 17 Million when he is 36. Harder to move if it is needed.

[markedman5]

I dont think anyone worries about his past, fit, or if he earned this contract. 32 33 34 35 rumored buyout 36. Plus talk of his defense already starting to decline. I love Cain but even I'm worried about that age range.

 

To add some merit to this concern, I did a quick search for players ages 32-37 in the last eight years who reasonably fit Cain's profile. who knows how Cain will actually be, but here are some trends i observed from others:

 

defense seems to take a significant dip around 32 years, especially range factor and even moreso for centerfielders. Offense tends to see a similar significant dip around age 34.

 

so it maybe more likely than not that Cain's defense will decrease considerably and steadily after this season, he already regressed a bit last year. however, in his last two years of the contract, he could be free to move to LF to help mitigate his defense, or earlier if Braun is moved before his contract ends in 2020.

 

outside of 2015 in his prime hitting year, Cain has never been an elite hitter. it seems likely that he’s got 1-2 more years of hitting around .800 OPS and then offense will steadily decline from there.

 

the money seems fine to me, and Cain, as many have noted has been one of the best players in baseball the last 3-4 years. However, with his age, so much about how I feel about this signing comes down to the extent of the no trade clause and what the buyout is for the fifth year. I think Cain will be an awesome addition in 2018 & 2019 and then begin to see some grumblings on brewerfan about him in CF the next year, particularly if he’s putting up a sub .750 OPS, with below average defense- but, even then, may still be a net positive. However, it is that age 35 & 36 seasons in ’21 & ’22 that concern me. even with a move to LF, if he is still on our roster it may be hampering to Harrison who should just be coming up…sorry. Basically, if we have trade flexibility after the 3rd year, I like the deal a lot, if we don’t- this should give us some pause, especially if its back loaded. Either way, hopefully at least one of Grisham & Ray blossom and fulfill their potential to take over in CF with Lutz not far behind. a lot of course can happen in three years.

 

Here is the case for not being over.y concerned that he will age badly

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/someone-should-sign-lorenzo-cain/

 

Ps only has full non trade protection the first year..........by the last year can only block 5 teams ......https://twitter.com/adammccalvy/status/956993055009181696

[bork]

There is money to work with this year but well north of $100 million with raises the next few years.

[homer]

There is money to work with this year but well north of $100 million with raises the next few years.

 

 

Which is about what they were a few years ago.

[sveumrules]

Santana has a -15 DRS/-15 UZR in 1,927 career RF innings compared to Braun who has a -9 DRS/-13 UZR in 2,287 career RF innings. According to the numbers Braun has been a better (less bad) RF than Santana to this point.

 

Important to note Braun last played RF in 2015 & that Santana's defensive numbers improved from terrible in 2016 to merely below average in 2017.

 

All that to say that Braun/Santana in RF for 2018 is probably pretty close to a wash defensively.

 

I'm still of the mind that putting your best player (Yelich) in a position he's never played before even in the minors (RF) is not the best way to maximize his contributions but if DS/CC thinks that's the best alignment I'll still watch.

[wallus]

Putting Braun at first is poor asset management. Santana is going to be traded.

 

Why is it poor asset management?

 

A Thames/Aguilar platoon is likely to put better numbers than a regressing Ryan Braun at first base. It is no sure thing that Braun would be even an average first baseman defensively.

 

I can't imagine that Thames or Aguilar have much trade value at all by themselves. Santana should get you a decent player.

[WestCoastCrew]

How I see the starts currently being divvied up (doesn't include spot starts by guys like Perez):

 

C: Pina

1B: Braun, Thames

2B: Sogard, Villar

3B: Shaw

SS: Arcia

LF: Yelich, Braun

CF: Cain, Phillips, Broxton

RF: Santana, Phillips

 

Counsell loves to play the matchup game and this roster currently gives him tons of flexibility and options.

[brwrsfan]

WCC, agree with what you have....but what did we do with Aguilar in that scenario? Is he flipped for a bullpen arm?

[danzig6767]

Per Hardicourt

 

new OF Lorenzo Cain's contract:

$13 million in '18,

$14 million in '19,

$15 million in '20,

$16 million in '21,

$17 million in '22.

 

Then $1 million deferred each year for five years afterward.

 

Given our current lower payroll, i wish those salaries were revered, starting at 17 million this year and ending at 13 million in 2022.

[pacopete4]

Per Hardicourt

 

new OF Lorenzo Cain's contract:

$13 million in '18,

$14 million in '19,

$15 million in '20,

$16 million in '21,

$17 million in '22.

 

Then $1 million deferred each year for five years afterward.

 

Given our current lower payroll, i wish those salaries were revered, starting at 17 million this year and ending at 13 million in 2022.

I know what we are all thinking but if we needed money so bad then I’m willing to bet Mark A would have told them to structure it that way.

[WestCoastCrew]

Flip Aguilar for something, likely a lower-level lottery ticket prospect. His value is as a backup first baseman and pinch-hitter.

[FVBrewerFan]

Per Hardicourt

 

new OF Lorenzo Cain's contract:

$13 million in '18,

$14 million in '19,

$15 million in '20,

$16 million in '21,

$17 million in '22.

 

Then $1 million deferred each year for five years afterward.

 

Given our current lower payroll, i wish those salaries were revered, starting at 17 million this year and ending at 13 million in 2022.

 

If only we had local media that followed the Brewers, they could ask why not move a huge chunk to 2018. Wait, we do....sort of.

[Thurston Fluff]

Braun's days playing 140 games are over. If we get 120 out of him it's a win. Thames didn't do well in the second half last year. It could have been the league catching up with him but I heard some talk about him wearing down. Aguilar did a nice job pinch hitting and playing sporadically. That is three players who can or should only play four or less times a week. I think there is room for all of them.

[Boomer5]

In other words the Brewers have about $5 million more to spend that I thought they did. Nice!

 

Yes. That's the positive, not happy about Cain getting 17 Million when he is 36. Harder to move if it is needed.

 

Stearns definitely overpaid for both OFers in the trade and the FA contract plus draft pick.

 

However this was a lineup that only scored when they hit HRs. They were painful to watch down the stretch when the Cubs finally pulled away. For the Brewers to be serious contenders in the central, the line up had to be radically changed and if that meant paying too much then so be it.

[jjfanec]

 

Stearns definitely overpaid for both OFers in the trade and the FA contract plus draft pick

 

Absolutely no analysts I have read are saying the Brewers overpaid for yelich

[adambr2]

Nor is $16M a year an overpay for Cain's production. Why do you keep saying that? It's not 2003 anymore. MLBTR pegged him for $17.5M per season.

[TURBO]

Nor is $16M a year an overpay for Cain's production. Why do you keep saying that? It's not 2003 anymore. MLBTR pegged him for $17.5M per season.

 

We'll see if people are singing that tune in year 4 and 5 of this contract...