What's Next

[liveforoctober]

What would Joe Panik cost us? Giants still need a CF. We have like 40 of them now...

[paul253]

If this leverage scenerio plays out, and it won't, because we aren't forced to deal anything, this is what you do. Other teams will realize that's a real enough option to blow the bs used car salesman logic that won't play out to bits. Teams want Santana. They aren't going to get cute about it and risk not getting him over a dumb assumption that the additions made his price go down

 

I’m not going to argue with you. If you think teams will actually believe that we’re willing to use Ryan Braun as essentially a utility player who is going to play a position that he has never played before then that’s your prerogative. I don’t think anyone would actually believe that because it would never happen but whatever.

[TJseven7]

Despite him saying he can still play SS and is willing to play 1b. HE BELIEVES HE CAN PLAY SS AT THE MLB LEVEL! As of OCT 2017. You think 1b is beyond him? Despite the fact that he came up at SS and 3b. Despite the fact that many big bat infielders including catchers and a number of OFs make the switch to 1b to extend their career. Despite the fact that aguilar is a dh by almost all accounts.

 

Yeah really don't know what your hangup is. Do you badly want to pretend you are wiser than Stearns?

 

Again, if a guy plays every day he can he isn't a utility player. If he plays more than 80-100 games with good health (which would be stunning) then Thames is a bench player. Thames wore down last year anyway. He had 1 great month then eh. Would playing Thames 60 games and have him as the premier ph option be wasting him?

 

If gms try to depress the market on santana you just keep him. Maybe deal Thames, or Aguilar or hell cut perez. There are SPs to sign. There are 2bs all over the place.

 

Fact is, jd is likely a red sox, cain and yelich and stanton and ozuna are gone. Best OF left on the market is very likely 1 Domingo Santana.

[paul253]

Despite him saying he can still play SS and is willing to play 1b. Despite the fact that he came up at SS and 3b. Despite the fact that many big bat infielders including catchers and a number of OFs make the switch to 1b to extend their career. Despite the fact that aguilar is a dh by almost all accounts

 

Why do you think he was moved off of third base to begin with? Did you see him play third? He was a horrible horrible third basemen. Despite that, you not only think he can handle third but you think he can handle SS just because he said he could? Do a survey here. Find one other person who seriously believes Ryan Braun can play shortstop. Or even third base for that matter.

 

Additionally, I never said he can’t play first base. I’m sure he could. But understand the argument. You’re essentially saying “we will just tell other teams Ryan Braun will play first base in order to make them believe we don’t have a logjam in the outfield”. My argument is that nobody would actually believe you if you said that because it’ll never happen. Yes Ryan Braun CAN play first. Hell Corey Knebel CAN play first too. That doesn’t mean it’s an actual possibility though. That doesn’t mean opposing GMs are stupid enough to accept that excuse.

 

Yeah really don't know what your hangup is. Do you badly want to pretend you are wiser than Stearns

 

My hangup is you coming on here and literally just proclaiming I am wrong when I say that I think Santana’s trade value has dropped because other teams now know we pretty much have to trade him. As if you could possibly know if that’s true or not. It’s my opinion. Others are allowed to have opinions whether you agree with them or not. If you disagree with them then make an informed argument against it. Don’t just come on here all arrogantly and proclaim that they are wrong and need to “let it go”.

 

On a side note, I’ve never once claimed to be wiser than David Stearns. I have no idea where that accusation is coming from. I’m just stating my opinion that it’s possible he’s backing himself into a corner by acquiring too many every day outfielders. If you disagree fine. But I think your implication we can just tell other teams Ryan Braun is now going to play first base and they’ll just believe us is a little naive.

 

If he plays more than 80-100 games with good health (which would be stunning

 

Braun has played in more than 100 games in 10 of the 11 seasons he has been a pro. And the one season he didn’t play 100 games is the season he was suspended. Him playing 80-100 games would not be stunning at all.

[TJseven7]

Well his trade value hasn't dropped so....

 

Yes I watched him at 3rd. Couldn't hit the broad side of a barn throwing. Range and fielding would have played fine at 1b. Don't make him the cut off man which should be arcia at all costs anyway. Should be fine. No worse than aguilar.

 

I laughed when he stated he tells CC that he can play SS. It's like hearing Favre say he can still play qb in the nfl. He can't play 3b... he can't play SS. As for 1b, I have zero doubts he could transition to 1b. If that's soo niave that no one would believe it could happen... well. Exhibit a... we freaking played villar at CF last year and that was beyond nonsense. Exhibit b...we got aguilar because teams felt he couldn't field 1b and played him there a bunch. Exhibit C... thames OF.

 

Who is available at OF now? Cargo, gomez, ellsbury? Bruce Cain Yelich Ozuna Stanton are gone. JD is only an option for the mega rich. I'd dare to say Domingo is the blue chip after today. I don't think that inflates his value at all. Just like I don't believe his price will drop because keeping him would force us to bench Thames more often.

 

You can say you haven't said you are wiser than Stearns but your entire point is that yelich cain moves today is misplaying his hand on Santana. Something you know and he doesn't get. See how hard it was for me to infer that? It's your entire point. You know better than him. He just gave away leverage on Santana and made a mistake.

 

I'm pretty certain after the news dropped he circling back on deals that were already well in progress. Like Archer (news) and Salazar (rumors plausable fit) and maybe Duffy (plausable fit and news linking heavy talks between mke and kc earlier).

 

If they try to jam him... you honestly think he'll cave or that a dude who supposedly negotiated several dominos and attack paths to the offseason doesn't have a built in escape route if that exact value jam scenerio actually is attempted by GMs? I'm certain he's too deliberate to get stuck or jammed.

 

The Braun position switch makes too much sense as the backdoor. I doubt it'll be needed but I'm fairly confident Braun at RF or 1B is a switch known in that FO. Hell, Braun already hinted it in October.

 

As for the 80-100 games. He just played 104 (2nd least of his career to the susp year) at 33 because he couldn't get over a calf strain. He's only getting older and more brittle. Call me crazy for not expecting a resurgence or better health. IE: the reason no one wants to trade for him at his contract. You want him as healthy as possible thru 2020. He's maxed at 120 games and that is likely too generous.

 

Honestly the more I go over this the more I want them to move braun to 1b and toss perez for a trinket. If we trade santana we are going to see a ton of broxton or phillips which dents the lineup quite a bit. If we keep santana Braun is a bonus every game he plays and when he's out we still have thames aguilar to carry 1b.

[paul253]

Well his trade value hasn't dropped so....

 

How could you possibly know this? Seriously. You’re stating it as fact so I want to know how you know this.

 

As for 1b, I have zero doubts he could transition to 1b. If that's soo niave that no one would believe it could happen... well

 

That’s not what I said. I said what is naive is you thinking other GMs will just believe we’re ok with Ryan Braun flip flopping between first base and the outfield because we can’t get a decent offer for Santana.

 

As I said I’m sure Braun CAN play first. I actually wanted them to move him to first before they signed Thames. But if he is going to play first he’s going to play first. He’s not going to switch between that and the outfield. He’s also going to be given notice that he’s going to play first and get plenty of reps there and not just get thrown out there because we need to find a spot for all of our other outfielders.

 

Exhibit a... we freaking played villar at CF last year and that was beyond nonsense

 

Yeah he played CF. We didn’t try convincing other GMs that he was now our center fielder and we were perfectly ok with that.

 

. Exhibit b...we got aguilar because teams felt he couldn't field 1b and played him there a bunch.

 

Not sure what this has to do with anything

 

Exhibit C... thames OF.

 

I’m not sure what you’re getting at here.

 

Just like I don't believe his price will drop because keeping him would force us to bench Thames more often

 

And move Ryan Braun to first base. And get rid of Aguilar. You’re acting like all we’re doing is moving Thames from 4th outfielder to 5th outfielders. What you’re proposing has a lot of moving parts, one of which is a pretty major one that’s never been done before. There is literally zero reason to believe Ryan Braun will be playing first base this year. Yet you speak of it as if it’s very realistic possibility.

 

You can say you haven't said you are wiser than Stearns but your entire point is that yelich cain moves today is misplaying his hand on Santana. Something you know and he doesn't get. See how hard it was for me to infer that? It's your entire point. You know better than him. He just gave away leverage on Santana and made a mistake.

 

Oh my god dude. I said I’m worried that he’s backing himself into a corner by acquiring too many outfielders. That other teams are now going to see us as desperate to move Santana, which hurts his trade value. It’s an opinion. I didn’t even state it as fact like you do with all of your claims. I said it’s possible. How can you not understand the difference between this and my claiming I’m smarter than Stearns?

[TJseven7]

Because I grant, easily, that Stearns isn't stupid enough to back homself into a corner. Because I dont see us as actually being backed into a corner. Because in no way are we desperate to trade Santana. Because the OF options league wide are now gone. I honestly don't want to trade santana the more I think about it.

 

My point about starting Aguilar at 1st when he's defensively a DH is that I don't expect Braun to be worse. My point about villar and thames is that we've limped defensively at more important positions than 1b so continuing to limp at 1b isn't close to an absurd notion.

 

You talk about this as if Braun is an elite 152 game dependable starter in the OF. He's the guy we don't want. The contract we are stuck on because eating salary on it is insane as is giving it away. We don't even have 4 starting OF as is. We basically have 3.5. Braun is injury prone. Phillips is a 4th. Broxton is a 4th. There's no rush on Phillips and Broxton leaving for nothing wouldn't even sting. I also don't understand why Braun preparing for big innings at 1b will make a long tenured vet lose his ability to play LF. If we can play thames there a rusty braun can play there just fine.

 

The roster can settle in beautifully with 1 moving part. Braun preps for 1b. It's January. I doubt he has never fielded some reps there and I don't know how much notice you'd want to give him. He gets a month plus all of spring training. Again 1 moving part.

 

Pina vogt unchanged

Villar sogard unchanged

Arcia unchanged

Shaw perez unchanged

Yelich cain santana.. moving pieces the gg lf plays some cf games like he played all last year. The near gg cf plays some games like 8 in rf. I think cain and yelich can handle sliding over a few games.

Braun Thames aguilar ... the only change is thames aguilar play less.

 

You cut or move broxton as phillips is a call up away. If you add a 2b in fa or trade you use villar to backup 2b SS 3b (he's played all 3) and drop or trade perez and broxton or even possibly sogard.

 

Its really not as difficult as you are making it out to be. There are many zero harm ways to make it work.

 

My bigger concern at this point is if we deal santana our rh power is zapped the moment Braun goes down.

 

Cain yelich santana shaw braun/thames/aguilar is fantastic.

Cain yelich aguilar/thames shaw not as impressive.

 

If you can make it fit by transitioning a player to 1b, who many want at 1b, played IF, and is willing to play 1b and trading broxton or cutting perez then you aren't desperate in any way.

 

It doesn't take a stretch to make a case for why we shouldn't deal santana even after the 2 additions yesterday. Pretending we are stuck or trapped or leveraged out is just that pretending.

[adambr2]

Here's my take on it:

 

Liveforoctober brings up a great point. Both the trade and FA market for outfielders just got thinner. Whatever perceived value that Stearns lost by his OF depth chart is negated by that. Yes, JD Martinez is still out there, but Stearns knows perfectly well which teams are going to drop the kind of coin needed for him and which won't.

 

I am not too concerned about it and am pretty confident that this entire sequence has been meticulously planned out. Stearns knows what Santana's trade market is by now. What other teams know about our OF situation isn't as important as having a desirable asset. Many teams could use a young, cost controlled outfielder like Santana, particularly in the AL. But we only need one for a trade partner, and it doesn't need to be one particular team.

[TJseven7]

I think the meticulously planned out part is as accurate as it gets. Even HH pointed to dominos falling in succession and in 1 hour yelich cain fell. A B are done. C is an arm, buy or santana trade? Multiple options for each option likely in place if not all but completed. D 2b? Who knows. Stearns does. All the leaked info points towards him talking to nearly everyone. Testing the market, finding prices and trade values, putting together the best path to the end result he wants from the offseason. Path 1 2 3... with options off of each path.

 

I'd love all these teams to play chicken on Santana. Watch stearns drop broxton and a ticket for harrison, buy cobb, buy oh, cut perez, cut gallardo, demote phillips and away we go.

[Boomer5]

The offense is definitely improved so the rotation will need to be addressed and big since we are clearly going all in in the short term.

 

Here's the question: if they trade for Archer and sign a Lynn or Jake, would this make us the heavy favorites to lead the Central over the Cubs?

[brewtank34]

Phillips profiles as a PERFECT 4th OF. He plays all 3 OF positions well above average and is a left-handed bat off the bench. Gives us two lefties and two righties to work with. Broxton and Santana could very well be packaged together. Or Broxton going in the 'smaller' deal for a 2B.

 

Plus, he’s the ideal clubhouse guy. Do not under-estimate how important our clubhouse chemistry was to our success last year, and Phillips was/is a very key cog to that chemistry.

[JohnBriggs12]

Because I grant, easily, that Stearns isn't stupid enough to back homself into a corner. Because I dont see us as actually being backed into a corner. Because in no way are we desperate to trade Santana. Because the OF options league wide are now gone. I honestly don't want to trade santana the more I think about it.

 

My point about starting Aguilar at 1st when he's defensively a DH is that I don't expect Braun to be worse. My point about villar and thames is that we've limped defensively at more important positions than 1b so continuing to limp at 1b isn't close to an absurd notion.

 

You talk about this as if Braun is an elite 152 game dependable starter in the OF. He's the guy we don't want. The contract we are stuck on because eating salary on it is insane as is giving it away. We don't even have 4 starting OF as is. We basically have 3.5. Braun is injury prone. Phillips is a 4th. Broxton is a 4th. There's no rush on Phillips and Broxton leaving for nothing wouldn't even sting. I also don't understand why Braun preparing for big innings at 1b will make a long tenured vet lose his ability to play LF. If we can play thames there a rusty braun can play there just fine.

 

The roster can settle in beautifully with 1 moving part. Braun preps for 1b. It's January. I doubt he has never fielded some reps there and I don't know how much notice you'd want to give him. He gets a month plus all of spring training. Again 1 moving part.

 

Pina vogt unchanged

Villar sogard unchanged

Arcia unchanged

Shaw perez unchanged

Yelich cain santana.. moving pieces the gg lf plays some cf games like he played all last year. The near gg cf plays some games like 8 in rf. I think cain and yelich can handle sliding over a few games.

Braun Thames aguilar ... the only change is thames aguilar play less.

 

You cut or move broxton as phillips is a call up away. If you add a 2b in fa or trade you use villar to backup 2b SS 3b (he's played all 3) and drop or trade perez and broxton or even possibly sogard.

 

Its really not as difficult as you are making it out to be. There are many zero harm ways to make it work.

 

My bigger concern at this point is if we deal santana our rh power is zapped the moment Braun goes down.

 

Cain yelich santana shaw braun/thames/aguilar is fantastic.

Cain yelich aguilar/thames shaw not as impressive.

 

If you can make it fit by transitioning a player to 1b, who many want at 1b, played IF, and is willing to play 1b and trading broxton or cutting perez then you aren't desperate in any way.

 

It doesn't take a stretch to make a case for why we shouldn't deal santana even after the 2 additions yesterday. Pretending we are stuck or trapped or leveraged out is just that pretending.

 

Your bigger concern is if we deal Santana our rh power is zapped the moment Braun goes down, and yet you talk about cutting Perez who hit lefties at a .316/.342/.447 clip last year? I'd cut Villar who didn't hit a lick vs. lefties last year. Perez is better defensively in OF, and IF than Villar. Opportunities will be down for him in 2018, but barring a deal for a 2B, a 2B platoon of Perez/Sogard is far superior to Villar/Sogard. I keep Aguilar too, and trade Thames if the plan is to move Braun to 1B. Aguilar has proven invaluable as late inning PH bat. That's a skill not many possess.

[KCBrewerfan34]

The offense is definitely improved so the rotation will need to be addressed and big since we are clearly going all in in the short term.

 

Here's the question: if they trade for Archer and sign a Lynn or Jake, would this make us the heavy favorites to lead the Central over the Cubs?

 

Why does Cain and Yelich both with 5 years of control mean we’re going all in for the short term. How about making the playoffs for the next 5 years in a row? Wouldn’t everybody on the board like that. We will restock an already good farm system over the next 2-3 drafts and maybe a trade or 2. Great time to be a Brewer fan. They get Archer I’m down for at least a 10 Pack.

 

Take a look at post 474 in the locked Christian Yelich thread, almost spooky

 

Plan A Archer

Plan B Duffy Merrifield

Plan C Salazar

Plan D Fullmer ( I would be shocked)

 

I’m kind of envisioning all of the other GM’s Looking at their assistants in shock over what DS did last night. Please start extension talks with DS, if he pulls off a deal for a big time starter DS approaches godlike status IMHO

[Bench Coach 5]

So I had a thought. There was obviously some fire with the smoke regarding Cain. Is it possible the Brewers do have an interest in Mike Moustakas? Maybe you don't trade Shaw, but move him to first and trade Thames. You could use Thames with Santana and maybe other pieces for a pitcher? Not sure it is likely, but not sure what to think at this point.

[82brewcrew82]

So I had a thought. There was obviously some fire with the smoke regarding Cain. Is it possible the Brewers do have an interest in Mike Moustakas? Maybe you don't trade Shaw, but move him to first and trade Thames. You could use Thames with Santana and maybe other pieces for a pitcher? Not sure it is likely, but not sure what to think at this point.

If you could get what you needed for Thames, that would be an option but there are a couple of issues there. One is that any additional salary will need to be earmarked for pitching. The other is that I don't think Thames gets you the arm you need.

[KCBrewerfan34]

How high can we stretch the payroll, can we go to $125 or is $100-$110 more realistic. Credit to ownership for authorizing the payroll increase in Phase 1 of DS’s master plot.

[TJseven7]

"Your bigger concern is if we deal Santana our rh power is zapped the moment Braun goes down, and yet you talk about cutting Perez who hit lefties at a .316/.342/.447 clip last year? I'd cut Villar who didn't hit a lick vs. lefties last year. Perez is better defensively in OF, and IF than Villar. Opportunities will be down for him in 2018, but barring a deal for a 2B, a 2B platoon of Perez/Sogard is far superior to Villar/Sogard. I keep Aguilar too, and trade Thames if the plan is to move Braun to 1B. Aguilar has proven invaluable as late inning PH bat. That's a skill not many possess."

 

Perez put up some bipolar splits last year that dont reflect as strongly in the full body of work. I like his multi position capabilities and I even pushed for him to play 2b because it seemed like the better stack than leading with villar. I just dont see them giving up on villar. I have but that doesn't seem to jive with the FO message.

 

I'd keep aguilar as well. I'd carry 2 1b and 4 of counting Braun as an OF but playing him mostly at 1b. Santana yelich cain sat 20-25 games last year. No reason for phillips to be active for that little run. You'd regularly see thames aguilar as ph options or aguilar braun. I'd try to ph aguilar every day.

 

If you add a 2b it leaves 2 bench spots. Sogard is the best bench SS. Villar they won't give up on. Led to perez. If you don't add a 2b, broxton or perez stay if they wont give up on villar. I don't know if we could get a bite on villar broxton perez or if they are headed to being drops like scooter.

[brewmann04]

I asked this a while ago any chance the Brewers sign one of the big 3 FA Pitchers and also add a starter via the trade?

[nate82]

How high can we stretch the payroll, can we go to $125 or is $100-$110 more realistic. Credit to ownership for authorizing the payroll increase in Phase 1 of DS’s master plot.

 

Short term yes 125m is do able but not for more than 1-2 years. $125m is probably to much and would be the cap for the Brewers which means no additions during the trade deadline.

 

I think a more comfortable range for the Brewers is $110m they can then add more salary if needed at the deadline then.

[pacopete4]

I asked this a while ago any chance the Brewers sign one of the big 3 FA Pitchers and also add a starter via the trade?

 

[sarcasm]Well, I don't know. It all depends on if they need pitching or not. Any insights into that?[/sarcasm]

 

On a serious note, there is always a chance. Probably not a high chance as they do have some quality pitchers already on the staff and have already signed Chacin. But there's a chance.

[adambr2]

As much as we've thrown Ortiz into trade suggestions this off-season, I think the Brewers are a lot more hesitant to part with him than we are.

 

Though he didn't have a great 2017 and probably won't be ready until 2019, Ortiz likely has a higher starter ceiling than any other pitching prospect in our system.

[TJseven7]

I asked this a while ago any chance the Brewers sign one of the big 3 FA Pitchers and also add a starter via the trade?

 

Are we trading Woodruff? Anderson Davies Chacin with Nelson coming back at some point. You want 2? To push out woodruff and Chacin?

 

I mean if you want to archer or salazar are 5-6 mil, then big 3? Not Darvish means another what 15-20 mil. 20-26 mil makes us pretty poor. I'd say that rules out Duffy at 15 mil. Hope you like 2b and the pen as is.

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

I just watched a link to Ken Rosenthal breaking down the trade and signing. He indicates that he thinks Milwaukee wants to hold onto Santana and use other means to find a pitcher. Video is on MLB Network’s twitter page.

[adambr2]

I just watched a link to Ken Rosenthal breaking down the trade and signing. He indicates that he thinks Milwaukee wants to hold onto Santana and use other means to find a pitcher. Video is on MLB Network’s twitter page.

 

Unless they have a taker lined up for Braun that he'll approve, I can't imagine this is true. Would make no sense to have Braun or Santana as a 4th OFer.

[brwrsfan]

If we keep Santana, Braun is either gone or at first base. And if it’s first, Thames has to go. Right??