What's Next

[TJseven7]

If Stearns thinks the massive price we paid for two Outfielders on a team without an OF problem represents good value and not a win now mode, then I am dating Margot Robbie.

 

He is just posturing with teams he is negotiating for pitching help and praying no one knows he is bluffing.

 

Signing a 32 year old OF to a $80M no trade contract and giving up a draft pick isn't win now? Uh ok David, we believe you. Lol.

 

If you think 'value' has anything to do with only acquiring OFers if we had an OF problem, I don't think you understand what 'value' means as the term was used.

 

Cain and especially Yelich are multi year investments who were acquired because Stearns and his analytical team believe the value they bring in production exceeds the price paid in money and prospects. That's why they were acquired, not (prinarily) because we wanted to 'go for It' in 2018.

 

Todd Frazier's contract vs WAR suggests a true value. Cains suggest overpaying down years to acquire his high war years in a win now move.

 

Guys been 5 war his last 3 on average. His down years could quite easily be 2 war where he's paid market. Plus the no trade list declines with age. You can eat some cap and flip the last 1 or 2. Basically you just want him to carry a 2 war floor. This teams set up to do well in the next 4 years unless you want to build a superfarm.

 

Guess I'm saying the window kinda opened last year. Teams too decent to suck. Santana shaw 1b platoon pina, anderson nelson davies knebel hader. They all sped this up by being good players. Woodruff could be next. So you forget what you have and look at the unproven farm? Deal out current producers for waiting. Or you respect what you have in the majors and try to win here. Teams on a 4 year window as is. Cain makes the team better. Yelich makes the team better. But you dont throw 125/5 at arrieta or a huge give for archer because it helps year 1 of a 4 year window. 1 year later we could be looking at anderson nelson davies (repeats last year) woodruff (shows strong) burnes (arrives with a bang) and saying yeah we'll stick with these guys. I dont think yelich or cain were overpays. In 3 years we could be graduating ray lutz grisham and we can afford to eat some salary on cain if the of is Yelich Phillips Lutz. Just because you add, doesnt mean you jave to start overpaying for now. You dont have to all in. Especially when it seems like the trade market is as high now for pitching as it was at the deadline.

[Boomer5]

Cains contract is already a dinosaur in today's FA market and the ink is barely dry. Yes he is an overpay. I like Cain a lot. He is a really solid pro who does a lot of things to help a team win. But in today's market he is a 3/45 guy (or less based on the shocking Frazier deal), not a 5/80 guy, those days of $8M per WAR are already gone. Actually I'm not sure they were ever here or the Cubs would have a $400M payroll based on their 50 WAR roster.

 

I don't buy at all that he will have value for the 4 year window at 36. Actually I doubt any team truly looks at their current MLB roster and sees 4 years of projections. Just look at where the Brewers were just a year ago. Junior was our opening day starter, Villar was a guy Stearns was trying to extend, Feliz was our smart add as our closer, Shaw was a nice little pick up in the Thornburg deal, Scooter couldn't help out anyone at 2B, Anderson and Nelson were 4/5 types, Braun was our best player, Broxton was our 3-4 year CF in a Mike Cameron mode, etc.

 

Its an interesting time to be a Brewer fan. The team as you point is too good to suck but not good enough to seriously challenge anyone with the current roster. So what is the answer? Grossly overpay for a guy the Cubs don't want after seeing him pitch all these years? Give in to the Rays who have 100% leverage? Go to the bargain bin? Wait for our pitching version of a Frazier value deal?

[packer822]

I don't get why everyone thinks lo cain is going to be bad when the contract is in its 4th and 5th years.....in ichiros age 32 till age 36 years his ave was 322.....351...310...352...315...guys that stay in shape and love the game can still play at a high level in there mid 30s.....give the guy a chance before we throw him out to the pasture......

[TJseven7]

220/320 corner power bat who is a minor defensive plus. So if Chris Carter wasn't a defensive liability he'd be worth 9 mil?

 

I don't think fraziers type is valued these days. That has nothing to do with Cain. Upton 2 years younger got 106/5. 5 mil more per year.

 

I don't get how people watch 2 years of this dude operate with barely a mistep then assume... cains a stupid add, the market changed and stearns Fed up. We lost leverage now. Blah blah blah.

 

Just want to say 1st? I mean good grief. As for what now? Stick to our values like we have from the start. If that means our 5th starter is gallardo suter guerra or wilkerson so be it. Sign Garcia on a 1 year deal?

 

We started peralta guerra garza espino and a terrible pen for much of last year. I remember it being OVER 42 Full games of innings from guys who were 4.8 era or worse. 380 ip. Lets say we start Suter at the 5. Who on this staff is over 4.8 era? Woodruff? Suter? Our long man? I'm not sure but I'm not expecting 380 ip of it.

 

Teams better as is and was good last year. There's no immediate need. Nelson Burnes could both be "deadline" additions. Peralta houser williams could be pen adds. Hader for a full year jeffress for a full year albers a real loogy in logan. All these are upgrades.

 

Relax. The team was good. The team is better and less braun dependent. You dont need to swing for a kill shot right now.

[pacopete4]

Appreciate the info HighHeat. You have sent the twitter morons into a frenzie and that alone makes you sharing this info great. There are fake accounts going up all over the place, blocking people, ect... Well-done sir.

[brewtank34]

Speculation here, but Ken Rosenthal says that Jake O could go to the Darvish runner-up. I’m thinking it’s going to be the Brewers. If we can get Jake O and Colome, I’d be ecstatic. Then go get an Arrieta or Cobb. Done!!

 

[SandyTolan]

I'd be interested in more details on how Kipnis fits the Brewers analytical preferences. He doesn't play multiple positions, he is not young controllable talent, he is below average defensively....

 

He is a respected vet, a leader, bats left handed, decent speed, puts ball into play and not a K monster and most importantly.......he's a stop gap to Hiurea.

 

HH, I'm curious, even with what you wrote, why the Brewers are so enamored with Kipnis. His numbers from last year are pretty bad, including a .291 OBP. Via Sportrac, he's owed $28M over the next two years. Even if Cleveland picks up a decent chunk of that, this seems like an overpay, big time.

 

Am I missing something? Did his hamstring problems last year (two DL stints) affect his performance? If the Crew is expecting a bounce-back year, I can suggest another bounce-back candidate, one who comes much cheaper and is already on the team. Yeah, he's maddening at times, strikes out too much, and tends to run into outs too much. But he's $11M cheaper this year alone, and won't interfere with the Brewers signing a SP.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So Adam McCalvy tweeted this morning about a couple of Twitter users following him: High Heat and HighHeat19. Why do people have to suck so much? Dummy Twitter accounts? Really?

 

I don't really understand the Kipnis interest, either, unless they believe he's primed for a bounce-back. I suppose he is a better contact guy, and isn't going to strike out near as much as Villar. But he and Sogard's skillsets are somewhat redundant. I wonder if the Indians are saying that the price would be less if they take Kipnis and Salazar/Bauer/Clevenger back as a package, with the Brewers eating the Kipnis salary?

[splitterpfj]

Yes, Sandy, Kipnis was hurt last year.

[SandyTolan]

Yes, Sandy, Kipnis was hurt last year.

 

Yeah, I just saw that Splitter and edited my post... I suppose the hamstring issues could have affected his performance that much. Still, seems like a gamble to expect a bounceback, especially at that salary...

[splitterpfj]

So Adam McCalvy tweeted this morning about a couple of Twitter users following him: High Heat and HighHeat19. Why do people have to suck so much? Dummy Twitter accounts? Really?

 

I don't really understand the Kipnis interest, either, unless they believe he's primed for a bounce-back. I suppose he is a better contact guy, and isn't going to strike out near as much as Villar. But he and Sogard's skillsets are somewhat redundant. I wonder if the Indians are saying that the price would be less if they take Kipnis and Salazar/Bauer/Clevenger back as a package, with the Brewers eating the Kipnis salary?

 

I get the risk with Kipnis, but I would never compare him to Sogard. For example, in a very down year last year, Kipnis hit one more home runs than Sogard has in his career - he also beat Sogard’s career OPS with ease.

[pacopete4]

Yes, Sandy, Kipnis was hurt last year.

 

Yeah, I just saw that Splitter and edited my post... I suppose the hamstring issues could have affected his performance that much. Still, seems like a gamble to expect a bounceback, especially at that salary...

But with that risk and salary comes less of a return. And of course a hammy is going to affect performance.

[superfly]

Frazier isn't even worth 8 million. He's a washed up has been, anybody that watched a Yankees game late last year could see it.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Kipnis missed basically all of spring training with a balky shoulder, too. He got off to a slow start because of it, and just when he was heating up the hamstring issue flared up.

 

2017 was completely injury-marred for him. If healthy he'd be by far the best 2B option for this team amongst current Brewers on the roster or anyone else they may be looking to sign, even with his remaining contract. His age and injury concerns should merit Cleveland being willing to eat at least some of his salary in a trade provided they want something of value in return. This is why the idea of Salazar + Kipnis for Santana + mid tier prospect has some traction in my mind. Salazar and Santana are in very similar situations with service time - both Salazar and Kipnis are injury risks. I feel like Santana's value eclipses Salazar's 1 for 1, but Salazar + Kipnis & some cash would probably require Stearns to pony up a decent prospect to get a deal done.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Kipnis missed basically all of spring training with a balky shoulder, too. He got off to a slow start because of it, and just when he was heating up the hamstring issue flared up.

 

2017 was completely injury-marred for him. If healthy he'd be by far the best 2B option for this team amongst current Brewers on the roster or anyone else they may be looking to sign, even with his remaining contract. His age and injury concerns should merit Cleveland being willing to eat at least some of his salary in a trade provided they want something of value in return. This is why the idea of Salazar + Kipnis for Santana + mid tier prospect has some traction in my mind. Salazar and Santana are in very similar situations with service time - both Salazar and Kipnis are injury risks. I feel like Santana's value eclipses Salazar's 1 for 1, but Salazar + Kipnis & some cash would probably require Stearns to pony up a decent prospect to get a deal done.

 

I'm sure the value of the prospect then would hinge on how much money is coming back the Brewers' way. Regardless, I can't imagine it would be a super high-end prospect. I could see someone like Carlos Herrera going back to the Indians.

[SandyTolan]

Kipnis missed basically all of spring training with a balky shoulder, too. He got off to a slow start because of it, and just when he was heating up the hamstring issue flared up.

 

2017 was completely injury-marred for him. If healthy he'd be by far the best 2B option for this team amongst current Brewers on the roster or anyone else they may be looking to sign, even with his remaining contract. His age and injury concerns should merit Cleveland being willing to eat at least some of his salary in a trade provided they want something of value in return. This is why the idea of Salazar + Kipnis for Santana + mid tier prospect has some traction in my mind. Salazar and Santana are in very similar situations with service time - both Salazar and Kipnis are injury risks. I feel like Santana's value eclipses Salazar's 1 for 1, but Salazar + Kipnis & some cash would probably require Stearns to pony up a decent prospect to get a deal done.

 

I'm sure the value of the prospect then would hinge on how much money is coming back the Brewers' way. Regardless, I can't imagine it would be a super high-end prospect. I could see someone like Carlos Herrera going back to the Indians.

 

 

This would be highly preferable to the Archer deal. Meantime, I wonder if they're thinking of Clevinger instead of Salazar. Either way, unless Cleveland ate most of Kipnis's salary, this would probably mean no big FA SP signing by the Crew. Though maybe there'd still be room for a Cobb late in spring training...

[brewmann04]

I am glad DS is playing hardball .

[brewcrew42]

Cains contract is already a dinosaur in today's FA market and the ink is barely dry. Yes he is an overpay. I like Cain a lot. He is a really solid pro who does a lot of things to help a team win. But in today's market he is a 3/45 guy (or less based on the shocking Frazier deal), not a 5/80 guy, those days of $8M per WAR are already gone. Actually I'm not sure they were ever here or the Cubs would have a $400M payroll based on their 50 WAR roster.

 

I don't buy at all that he will have value for the 4 year window at 36. Actually I doubt any team truly looks at their current MLB roster and sees 4 years of projections. Just look at where the Brewers were just a year ago. Junior was our opening day starter, Villar was a guy Stearns was trying to extend, Feliz was our smart add as our closer, Shaw was a nice little pick up in the Thornburg deal, Scooter couldn't help out anyone at 2B, Anderson and Nelson were 4/5 types, Braun was our best player, Broxton was our 3-4 year CF in a Mike Cameron mode, etc.

 

Its an interesting time to be a Brewer fan. The team as you point is too good to suck but not good enough to seriously challenge anyone with the current roster. So what is the answer? Grossly overpay for a guy the Cubs don't want after seeing him pitch all these years? Give in to the Rays who have 100% leverage? Go to the bargain bin? Wait for our pitching version of a Frazier value deal?

 

You can't complain about his contract compared to the market when there is no market. No other OF of similar value has been signed. Let me know when Martinez signs somewhere. Maybe he is a bit overpaid but there's nothing to back that up right now. For the record, that's around the price most people guessed for Cain. I don't really understand the whole Frazier thing. The reason he's not being paid much is because he's not worth that much. Hard to get excited about a guy hitting .210 and whiffing constantly.

[tmwiese55]

I don't get why everyone thinks lo cain is going to be bad when the contract is in its 4th and 5th years.....in ichiros age 32 till age 36 years his ave was 322.....351...310...352...315...guys that stay in shape and love the game can still play at a high level in there mid 30s.....give the guy a chance before we throw him out to the pasture......

 

And we can point to a few hundred other guys who fell off in those ages too.

[StearnsFTW]

James Paxton.. hmmmm

 

I would cry with paroxysms of joy if we got James Paxton.

 

And then I would curl up in the fetal position when he inevitably got hurt.

[coolhandluke121]

220/320 corner power bat who is a minor defensive plus. So if Chris Carter wasn't a defensive liability he'd be worth 9 mil?

 

I don't think fraziers type is valued these days. That has nothing to do with Cain. Upton 2 years younger got 106/5. 5 mil more per year.

 

I don't get how people watch 2 years of this dude operate with barely a mistep then assume... cains a stupid add, the market changed and stearns Fed up. We lost leverage now. Blah blah blah.

 

Just want to say 1st? I mean good grief. As for what now? Stick to our values like we have from the start. If that means our 5th starter is gallardo suter guerra or wilkerson so be it. Sign Garcia on a 1 year deal?

 

We started peralta guerra garza espino and a terrible pen for much of last year. I remember it being OVER 42 Full games of innings from guys who were 4.8 era or worse. 380 ip. Lets say we start Suter at the 5. Who on this staff is over 4.8 era? Woodruff? Suter? Our long man? I'm not sure but I'm not expecting 380 ip of it.

 

Teams better as is and was good last year. There's no immediate need. Nelson Burnes could both be "deadline" additions. Peralta houser williams could be pen adds. Hader for a full year jeffress for a full year albers a real loogy in logan. All these are upgrades.

 

Relax. The team was good. The team is better and less braun dependent. You dont need to swing for a kill shot right now.

 

Great post. The pitching staff should be much better even with Nelson hurt. I believe they got good value in Chacin as well. They were basically tanking last year so they had all kinds of trash in their rotation and especially their pen, and they still won 86. I do believe some of their best players are due for regression, but upgrading from terrible to just mediocre is going to be a significant boost, and the staff could easily be better than mediocre.

[Boomer5]

Frazier is a washed up has been?

 

This the same guy? Go the $8M per War and plug that in to old Vic Tandy Stearns is using.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=785&position=3B

[StearnsFTW]

Speculation here, but Ken Rosenthal says that Jake O could go to the Darvish runner-up. I’m thinking it’s going to be the Brewers. If we can get Jake O and Colome, I’d be ecstatic. Then go get an Arrieta or Cobb. Done!!

 

 

I'm still not really understanding the Odorizzi love. He was very very average last year (and that may be kind).

 

I'd take a shot at him, but I'm sure not giving much up for him.

[JohnBriggs12]

Is there any timetable to any of these prospective moves? Any priorities that are almost certain to happen soon? I'm getting weary of refreshing (no doubt still will however). Thoughts?

 

As I said a post up. My opinion is that almost all of the pitchers could be available by opening of spring training in a few weeks. However, the position players should start to fall shortly.

 

What's this "few weeks"? Pitchers and catchers for most teams report a week from today. Brewers pitchers and catchers report next Wednesday. Regular season starts in March this year. Spring training games are just 2 1/2 weeks away.

[HighHeat19]

Is there any timetable to any of these prospective moves? Any priorities that are almost certain to happen soon? I'm getting weary of refreshing (no doubt still will however). Thoughts?

 

As I said a post up. My opinion is that almost all of the pitchers could be available by opening of spring training in a few weeks. However, the position players should start to fall shortly.

 

What's this "few weeks"? Pitchers and catchers for most teams report a week from today. Brewers pitchers and catchers report next Wednesday. Regular season starts in March this year. Spring training games are just 2 1/2 weeks away.

 

Yup, it sucks. Tell Darvish to push, wipe, flush and skip washing his hands.