What's Next

[Point Beer Is Best]

So we’re throwing in $10 Million for the pleasure of acquiring Kipnis?

 

I meant the other way around, oops.

 

So your suggesting Kipnis + $10MM for Cody Ponce & Villar? Cleveland says no.

 

Cleveland will not need a backfill on the infield if it moves Kipnis. It already has a handful of guys guys to go thru to fill 3B with JRam moving from 3B over to 2B (since Kipnis gone). So let's consider a counter.

 

Kipnis + $10MM (over 2 seasons, $4 this year, $6 next season) for FPeralta & a PTBNL. For our discussion the PTBNL cannot be anyone from full season minor league ball last season or listed in the top 30 of the BA Prospect list. This would be a true lottery ticket..

 

Your thoughts?

 

I was actually just going to pose the question, “what is Jason Kipnis worth?”, as a stand-alone asset separate from Salazar. The fact that you want Peralta + for Kipnis & $10m in salary relief as an Indians fan on the opening salvo makes me think his worth is probably less than that.

[3and2Fastball]

I don't get the fascination with Kipnis. He had a pretty good year in 2016 with a 4 WAR, just like Villar...his contract is ridiculous. We're taking on his contract in order to get 3 years of Danny Salazar? Is that it?

[SandyTolan]

Honestly I feel that the optimism on Archer is reaching Stage 5 Hurricane proportions. Other than his mediocre ERA, which I know many people here don't like, there's also a mediocre WHIP, high homer rate, which would likely rise, maybe significantly, in Miller Park, high hard contact rate, and the fact that he seems to be trending downward in the last two years, and is not a kid anymore. All that, all those question marks, and we give TB Santana, two of our very best pitching prospects, including our #1 prospect, PLUS Brett Phillips?

 

Thanks, but no way. Please look somewhere else, Crew.

[MadThinker88]

I was actually just going to pose the question, “what is Jason Kipnis worth?”, as a stand-alone asset separate from Salazar. The fact that you want Peralta + for Kipnis & $10m in salary relief as an Indians fan on the opening salvo makes me think his worth is probably less than that.

 

FPeralta & PTBNL is the counter, not the opening salvo.

Ponce & Villar was the opening salvo from your side.

[Portage Plumber]

Archer was used quite a bit in the early games of the WBC last year. Previously this was used as a reason for many down years for pitchers-- could be a contributing factor to his numbers in '17.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Wow ... it's Feb. 2, less than two weeks from the start of Spring Training, and the Hot Stove has been a vast wasteland of nothingness today. I mean, besides an agent claiming collusion, there hasn't even been a sniff of player movement all day. The Twitter rumor mill is deathly silent. We are arguing in circles, latching onto the smallest of tidbits that the market is about to open up. Other than the Brewers' splash last Thursday, the last two months have been a big batch of nothing.

 

With all this non-activity, I wonder if free agents and potential free agents are looking at the Brewers as the only team making and contemplating making moves, and putting them up a few notches on the "potential destinations" list? It sure is fun seeing our team as a potential destination or even a frontrunner for the top free agents.

[jonescm128]

There is the trade!!!

 

Andrew Susac to Baltimore for cash...

[pacopete4]

There is the trade!!!

 

Andrew Susac to Baltimore for cash...

 

Brewers still active. [sarcasm]Now we can afford a pitcher![/sarcasm]

[jonescm128]

There is the trade!!!

 

Andrew Susac to Baltimore for cash...

 

Brewers still active. [sarcasm]Now we can afford a pitcher![/sarcasm]

 

 

I wonder how much cash is actually exchanged in these situations...

[NievesNoNO]

There is the trade!!!

 

Andrew Susac to Baltimore for cash...

 

 

Probably what's been holding up the FA market

 

Saw the TR app pop up on my phone and got excited for a second

[reillymcshane]

There is the trade!!!

 

Andrew Susac to Baltimore for cash...

 

Brewers still active. [sarcasm]Now we can afford a pitcher![/sarcasm]

 

 

I wonder how much cash is actually exchanged in these situations...

We have a photo of the transaction being made:

 

[TheEndless7]

There is the trade!!!

 

Andrew Susac to Baltimore for cash...

 

Brewers still active. [sarcasm]Now we can afford a pitcher![/sarcasm]

 

 

I wonder how much cash is actually exchanged in these situations...

 

 

I always secretly hope it's like the Money Ball film and it's just really teams agreeing to pay for all the soda in the clubhouse of other teams.

[WestCoastCrew]

I wonder if there would be a spare Rays outfielder coming to the Brewers in this deal. They already have Dickerson, Kiermaier, Span, Souza, Smith. Adding Santana and Phillips to this mix creates a Brewers-esque jam.

[PDXBrewCrew]

Usually it's the $20K waiver fee.

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

I have been refreshing non stop today hoping for some sort of juicy update from HH. Probably unfair to him as I am positive he has more important things to do, but none the less.

[Crash2303]

From what I know, a trade of Santana, Phillips, Burnes and Peralta is what TB want's for Archer.

 

I was struck by people's responses after this was laid out as a potential asking price. yes, you have to give to get and seldom do you feel like something is a "steal". this is not a comment on the package, but a brewerfan observation regarding the proposed package. first, it seems like there was unified consensus of 'damn, that's a lot to give up', but in addition a strong contingency feeling that 'who knows if any of the prospects pan out and Archer is worth it".

 

I'd say, historically, this community has never been accused of undervaluing its minor league assets. in trade proposals, we are constantly reminded to 'flip the script' and be more realistic. this is really the first time I've ever felt that generally, as a forum, we are undervaluing our assets. I feel like in the past we would have thumbed our noses at a trade proposal like HighHeat19 hinted at. if this is true, is it that we are being swept up in the excitement of making a splash and ramping up our window to include this year. or is it that we're finally seeing more realistically what the value of prospects really is. I do think the yelich trade was a reality-check for some of us, myself included- of what it takes to get elite players, and the overpay needed to put a team over the top.

 

but, I also wonder if we are buying in so much to the market value that we might be losing sight of actual value. obviously there is a difference between player value and market value. I understand that the market value right now for young, controllable TOR guys is exorbitant. and this varies from year to year as different trends come and go ie, pitch framing catchers a couple years ago, and conversely this year with the devaluation of pitchers and to a lesser extent position players, who are on the wrong side of 32. the commodity of these young guns is scarce. however, their scarcity may inflate their price beyond their actual value.

 

In addition, there is also team value/need. when a team has a plethora of young, talented OFers like the Brewers do, our excess diminishes their value, whereas a team who is a solid reliever away from contending, would put an enormous value on that commodity, even if solid relievers weren't highly valued in the market. balancing all three of these is important. I guess, my hope is that the Brewers don't lose sight of capitalizing on the value of our own assets in our quest to fulfill our needs.

 

One example of all of this is Domingo Santana. he is only 25, controlled for four more years, just put up 30 HR and hasn't even tapped his power potential as he's not even entered his physical prime yet. he has true 40 HR potential as well as great OB skills. as people have mentioned Yelich is about ready to break out- the exact same thing could be said about Santana. even factoring his subpar defense, he put up a 3 WAR season last year. his track record and trajectory throughout the minors and majors suggests strongly that it is not a one year fluke. he offers tremendous value to a team and am amazed that his market value doesn't seem higher based on trade hypothesized proposals around the league.

 

Whereas Archer, my all accounts a great pitcher only put up a 3 WAR in the past two seasons combined. now, comparing WAR pitchers vs position players has its own merit of controversial discussion. that's not my point. the point is that both seem comparable in terms of player value. it seems team need and positional scarcity are the things that are primarily different. but, are there really that many 25 year old budding big-time hitters available?

 

We need 1-2 additional TOR to raise us to the next platform. I get that. it seems Stearns is valuing reducing uncertainty percentages with already established guys, who are still cost-controlled. I get that. but, I wonder why Santana doesn't have similar value and am interested if others noted a change in brewerfan prospect values.

[Lathund]

I think the path forward depends on where the big free agents end up. The Archer trade should IMO only be an option if we can't get a Darvish. If we get Darvish, a lesser trade where we keep Woodruff/Burnes/Ortiz would be much preferable to me. Need more than just the 5 starters to be competitive, and in order to keep the starter depth needed you must have players with options left.

[Warning Track Power]

Gotta wonder what is holding up the Brewers making a move. Does where Darvish signs really play into what the next move is for the Brewers? In other words, are the Brewers waiting on Darvish before pulling the trigger on any SP trade? If so, doesn't that lean towards the idea the Brewers are only after one addition to the rotation?

 

Have to further wonder if they are waiting on Darvish, and if he doesn't choose Milwaukee, do the Brewers pivot to a trade for the cheap contract of Archer and use the other money for other FAs (Neil Walker) or if they move down to a cheaper FA option (Alex Cobb).

[3and2Fastball]

Just a guess, but HH said one player is holding up the trade, could be Tampa asking for Burnes, or Phillips....

[Fear The Chorizo]

This is Santana's last pre-arbitration season - so while he's still cost-friendly that part of his value to whichever organization he's a part of will start decreasing rapidly after this year. Plus, having to put Santana in the field as an NL team diminishes what he gives you at the plate. He profiles as an ideal DH candidate in the AL - IMO a right-handed hitting Schwarber with a better average/OBP. That definitely has value to AL teams, but not enough to have them just ship a talented and cost-controlled starting pitcher in his prime to Milwaukee in return.

 

The issue with Santana as a centerpiece to Tampa in a trade is that his current MLB service time clock isn't what Tampa would want in return for dealing a quality rotation piece who's under a fantastic contract currently. The problem with Santana as a centerpiece to Cleveland in a trade is that the Brewers should demand more back from the Indians than Salazar, which is where things get dicey with remaining prospect packages/salary relief. It's not that brewer prospects/Santana are undervalued - it's that the best potential trade fits don't cleanly match right now, so people are trying to fit square pegs in round holes to make trades work and the more complex a potential deal gets the less realistic it becomes. Truth is very few teams are rushing to deal impact, controllable starting pitchers that are already in the majors for a bat two months before the regular season starts. Doing so essentially waves the white flag on the 2018 season unless you have a surplus of pitching (extremely rare). I wouldn't be surprised if Santana is in Milwaukee opening day, and eventually becomes part of a trade to acquire an impact rotation arm with more limited control at the deadline from a team that drops out of contention - like I expect the Giants, Orioles, Blue Jays, Royals, Mariners, Rangers, and others to be.

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

Just a guess, but HH said one player is holding up the trade, could be Tampa asking for Burnes, or Phillips....

 

If that's the case, and I have no reason to doubt HH, then I feel like it gets done. It seems like Stearns and Co. really want Archer and if they're that close to the finish line I have a hard time seeing them not cross it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Just a guess, but HH said one player is holding up the trade, could be Tampa asking for Burnes, or Phillips....

 

This is my thought as well. I'm more OK with giving up Burnes than Phillips, though. I think Stearns places a high value on both, but reading between the lines on HH's post, he indicates that the Brewers really love Phillips and place a high value on him, while other teams view Burnes as the Brewers' #1 prospect. That doesn't necessarily mean the Brewers view him in that light. Phillips is the perfect fit for what Stearns is trying to build defensively in the outfield.

[Boomer5]

From what I know, a trade of Santana, Phillips, Burnes and Peralta is what TB want's for Archer.

 

I was struck by people's responses after this was laid out as a potential asking price. yes, you have to give to get and seldom do you feel like something is a "steal". this is not a comment on the package, but a brewerfan observation regarding the proposed package. first, it seems like there was unified consensus of 'damn, that's a lot to give up', but in addition a strong contingency feeling that 'who knows if any of the prospects pan out and Archer is worth it".

 

I'd say, historically, this community has never been accused of undervaluing its minor league assets. in trade proposals, we are constantly reminded to 'flip the script' and be more realistic. this is really the first time I've ever felt that generally, as a forum, we are undervaluing our assets. I feel like in the past we would have thumbed our noses at a trade proposal like HighHeat19 hinted at. if this is true, is it that we are being swept up in the excitement of making a splash and ramping up our window to include this year. or is it that we're finally seeing more realistically what the value of prospects really is. I do think the yelich trade was a reality-check for some of us, myself included- of what it takes to get elite players, and the overpay needed to put a team over the top.

 

but, I also wonder if we are buying in so much to the market value that we might be losing sight of actual value. obviously there is a difference between player value and market value. I understand that the market value right now for young, controllable TOR guys is exorbitant. and this varies from year to year as different trends come and go ie, pitch framing catchers a couple years ago, and conversely this year with the devaluation of pitchers and to a lesser extent position players, who are on the wrong side of 32. the commodity of these young guns is scarce. however, their scarcity may inflate their price beyond their actual value.

 

In addition, there is also team value/need. when a team has a plethora of young, talented OFers like the Brewers do, our excess diminishes their value, whereas a team who is a solid reliever away from contending, would put an enormous value on that commodity, even if solid relievers weren't highly valued in the market. balancing all three of these is important. I guess, my hope is that the Brewers don't lose sight of capitalizing on the value of our own assets in our quest to fulfill our needs.

 

One example of all of this is Domingo Santana. he is only 25, controlled for four more years, just put up 30 HR and hasn't even tapped his power potential as he's not even entered his physical prime yet. he has true 40 HR potential as well as great OB skills. as people have mentioned Yelich is about ready to break out- the exact same thing could be said about Santana. even factoring his subpar defense, he put up a 3 WAR season last year. his track record and trajectory throughout the minors and majors suggests strongly that it is not a one year fluke. he offers tremendous value to a team and am amazed that his market value doesn't seem higher based on trade hypothesized proposals around the league.

 

Whereas Archer, my all accounts a great pitcher only put up a 3 WAR in the past two seasons combined. now, comparing WAR pitchers vs position players has its own merit of controversial discussion. that's not my point. the point is that both seem comparable in terms of player value. it seems team need and positional scarcity are the things that are primarily different. but, are there really that many 25 year old budding big-time hitters available?

 

We need 1-2 additional TOR to raise us to the next platform. I get that. it seems Stearns is valuing reducing uncertainty percentages with already established guys, who are still cost-controlled. I get that. but, I wonder why Santana doesn't have similar value and am interested if others noted a change in brewerfan prospect values.

 

Based on the pre vs post Yelich trade feedback, quite a few will justify any trade regardless of cost.

 

I expect the same with the Archer trade. Burnes is untouchable until he is traded, In which case his ceiling will be that of a number 4 type. It's human nature of fans in general to see the glass as half full.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Brewer World at it again on Twitter. At least HH lays it out. The tidbits have made it fun this week for sure.

[bobuecker]

Brewer World at it again on Twitter. At least HH lays it out. The tidbits have made it fun this week for sure.

 

Either Trevor Bauer trade, or 24 hr deadline... or both.