What's Next

[StearnsFTW]

For Archer - Santana’s in, because he should be - I think two pitching prospects make sense for Tampa, and Woodruff is actually a great choice because he can start the season in their rotation.

 

I think they can be moved off of Phillips, I’ll suggest Gatewood or Grisham, but then I think it comes down to Burnes.

 

Santana, Woodruff, Gatewood and Burnes is my guess, if this one happens at all.

 

I'd be fine with this. I would not be fine with Phillips going. As has been stated, he'll play a lot and I'd assume he'd play the 8th/9th of pretty much every game. He is needed here.

[topper09er]

BTW, meeting was on Darvish direction. Don't know anymore or less.

 

My question is, was Mark A at the meeting? Maybe giving the sign-off on Darvish...hopefully

[TJseven7]

That's another fun option. Santana ticket for Salazar Kipnis, archer for burnes ray peralta dubon.

 

2 cheap controlled arms. Money on kipnis instead of arms. Not paying arrieta or cobb or lynn would put many minds at ease.

 

Kipnis health issues can be subsuded a bit by ample villar rest.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Could a Santana to Cleveland for Salazar and Kipnis work - with us eating most of the Kipnis salary? Would Cleveland be looking to rid themselves of that Kipnis contract enough to not ask more more prospects in that deal?

 

Sure, it works from our end. But we have absolutely no idea how the Indians value Santana, or what kind of value the Brewers place on Salazar. And if HH's speculation is right, and teams are placing a premium on solid pitching, then it is likely the Brewers would need to add a high-ranking prospect to Santana to acquire Salazar alone, let alone Salazar and Kipnis. Perhaps if they take on all of Kipnis's salary, that prospect wouldn't be as high, but I'm still guessing it would be something like Santana and Peralta/Ortiz for Salazar, or Santana and Diplan for Salazar/Kipnis, with the Brewers taking on most if not all of Kipnis's salary. The cost for solid pitching is otherworldly right now.

[Raw Biz]

If what HH19 is saying is true, and we're still looking to pick up both a SP in a trade and one of the big FA pitchers, I think I'm more inclined to push harder for Salazar with Cleveland than I am with TB for Archer. I know that Archer has more of a track record of success (although not really in the past two years), more durability and more years of control. But, adding an Arrieta or Cobb to he rotation along with Salazar would certainly make for a solid rotation to start the year. Then, you could hold onto guys like Burnes, Phillips and Peralta which would still give you some flexibility to make a deal a the deadline this July to solidify the team even more.

 

Could a Santana to Cleveland for Salazar and Kipnis work - with us eating most of the Kipnis salary? Would Cleveland be looking to rid themselves of that Kipnis contract enough to not ask more more prospects in that deal?

 

These are my thoughts exactly. I think Archer will cost too much in terms of prospects. I'd rather send Santana + low-level prospect for Salazar/Kipnis and bring in Darvish/Arrieta. Then, if one of these guys goes down with an injury or turns into Suppan/Garza 2.0(3.0?) down the road, we'd have someone like Burnes/Peralta ready to step in.

 

My fear is we trade away these 2 guys for Archer, sign Darvish/Arrieta and one or both of those guys end up not working out for whatever reason, then we have nobody in the minors even close to their potential ready to step in. I think Burnes/Peralta are our two best arms so I'd rather try to hold on to them at all costs. If TB would take a package centered around Santana/Ortiz (add Ray, low level guy?), then I might pull the trigger. But if we need to include Burnes, I'm out.

[brewcrew42]

I think Salazar could potentially be better than Archer. I really think if healthy he could break out this season with an ERA around 3 and a load of Ks. He's got the stuff to destroy batters. He's just gotta put it together. With Archer, I think what we've seen is what you get. Not a bad thing since what we've seen is pretty darn good, especially 2 years ago.

[TJseven7]

Could a Santana to Cleveland for Salazar and Kipnis work - with us eating most of the Kipnis salary? Would Cleveland be looking to rid themselves of that Kipnis contract enough to not ask more more prospects in that deal?

 

Sure, it works from our end. But we have absolutely no idea how the Indians value Santana, or what kind of value the Brewers place on Salazar. And if HH's speculation is right, and teams are placing a premium on solid pitching, then it is likely the Brewers would need to add a high-ranking prospect to Santana to acquire Salazar alone, let alone Salazar and Kipnis. Perhaps if they take on all of Kipnis's salary, that prospect wouldn't be as high, but I'm still guessing it would be something like Santana and Peralta/Ortiz for Salazar, or Santana and Diplan for Salazar/Kipnis, with the Brewers taking on most if not all of Kipnis's salary. The cost for solid pitching is otherworldly right now.

 

Ooo ooo option 2. Screw the big 4. Only 1 is worthy of being called big 4 anyway.

 

Kipnis villar bridge to Huira.

Archer salazar anderson davies chacin/woodruff

 

No big money pitcher. Cap right around 120 mil. 95+15 kipnis -2 sogard + Salazar 5, + archer 6 - 2 gallardo.

 

Doable?

[Madhawk23]

Could a Santana to Cleveland for Salazar and Kipnis work - with us eating most of the Kipnis salary? Would Cleveland be looking to rid themselves of that Kipnis contract enough to not ask more more prospects in that deal?

 

Sure, it works from our end. But we have absolutely no idea how the Indians value Santana, or what kind of value the Brewers place on Salazar. And if HH's speculation is right, and teams are placing a premium on solid pitching, then it is likely the Brewers would need to add a high-ranking prospect to Santana to acquire Salazar alone, let alone Salazar and Kipnis. Perhaps if they take on all of Kipnis's salary, that prospect wouldn't be as high, but I'm still guessing it would be something like Santana and Peralta/Ortiz for Salazar, or Santana and Diplan for Salazar/Kipnis, with the Brewers taking on most if not all of Kipnis's salary. The cost for solid pitching is otherworldly right now.

 

I'm not as high on Ortiz as others are on this board, so I could certainly get behind a Santana/Ortiz package for Salazar/Kipnis return. I agree though - it's hard to know how much value Cleveland would place on either of Santana and Ortiz? But, we do know that they could use a RH power bat in their lineup, and Santana would certainly qualify as that.

 

I'd be completely fine with a rotation to start the year of: Arrieta or Cobb (sounds like we'll probably get one of them), Anderson, Davis, Salazar and Chacin. Then, you'll hopefully have a month or two before the deadline to evaluate Jimmy Nelson and how healthy his shoulder is. If he returns to 2017 form, then you may not even need to make another SP move at the deadline. If he's not though, then you'd still have guys like Burnes, Peralta, etc. available to make another big move for one of the top available SP's at the deadline.

[tigerbrew]

Santana, Ortiz, Supak, Pennington

 

I simply do not want to deal away Phillips, Burnes, or Peralta. As I look over what's left of our top 10-15, those are the guys I keep at almost all costs, along with Hiura and Erceg.

 

 

Agree, I want to keep all these players in your list too.

 

Burnes should be untouchable. Stearns had already say no to the Rays and I hope he remains steadfast in keeping Burnes.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Burnes is one of his draft picks, so I'd hope Stearns would hold onto him with tighter claws than usual...

[HighHeat19]

It will take Burns to get Archer. This I know.

[brewerfan82]

The farm would be thinned out pretty significantly, but if we could swing a deal for Kipnis/Salazar around Santana+ and a deal for Archer around Phillips/Burnes/Peralta+ without giving up Hiura, we'd be pretty set for the next few years at the big league level while hopefully the guys further away continue to develop. The outfield is a little scary with Braun and Cain's ages, but still having Broxton on the cheap for the next 5 years helps a lot and makes losing all the other young outfielders feasible. Not to mention Thames and Perez' flexibility to play some outfield as well.

 

The real payoff is the rotation looks really solid and affordable for the next 3 years as well. It would be sooo tempting to go for it.

 

As long as we can hold onto Hiura, I'd be okay with losing all the talent in the upper minors to have the core of the big league team setup for the next 3-5 years like this:

 

[pre]Player 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

C Pina TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3

1B Thames 5.0M 6.0M 7.5M

2B Kipnis 13.5M 14.5M 2.5M buyout

3B Shaw TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3

SS Arcia TC TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3

OF Yelich 7.0M 9.7M 12.5M 14.0M 15.0M

OF Cain 13.0M 14.0M 15.0M 16.0M 17.0M

OF Braun 19.0M 18.0M 16.0M 4.0M buyout

 

C Vogt 3.1M ARB3

1B Aguilar TC TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3

IF Villar 2.5M ARB2 ARB3

IF Sogard 2.4M

UT Perez 2.0M ARB2 ARB3

OF Broxton TC TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3

 

Player 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

SP Archer 6.2M 7.5M 8.2M 8.2M

SP Salazar 5.0M ARB3 ARB4

SP Nelson 3.7M ARB2 ARB3

SP Anderson 4.2M 6.0M 8.5M 9.5M

SP Davies TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3

SP Chacin 8.0M 6.0M

 

CL Knebel 3.7M ARB2 ARB3 ARB4

RP Hader TC TC TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3

RP Albers 2.5M 2.5M

RP Logan 1.9M 4.1M

RP Barnes TC TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3

RP Jeffress 1.7M 3.2M 4.3M[/pre]

[FVBrewerFan]

Santana, Ortiz, Supak, Pennington

 

I simply do not want to deal away Phillips, Burnes, or Peralta. As I look over what's left of our top 10-15, those are the guys I keep at almost all costs, along with Hiura and Erceg.

 

 

Agree, I want to keep all these players in your list too.

 

Burnes should be untouchable. Stearns had already say no to the Rays and I hope he remains steadfast in keeping Burnes.

 

Problem is, other teams love the same guys the Brewers love, for the most part. We all have our top 10 lists, so do the publications. But Peralta and Erceg for example are two guys that I think have a higher value out there than what we give them credit for.

 

I guess my whole thing is, if we're going to give up lots of quantity in these deals, what we're left with better be top quality.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Santana, Ortiz, Supak, Pennington

 

I simply do not want to deal away Phillips, Burnes, or Peralta. As I look over what's left of our top 10-15, those are the guys I keep at almost all costs, along with Hiura and Erceg.

 

Granted we really have no idea how other major league teams rank guys like Supak and Pennington, but considering they have been dealt in the last couple years in very minor deals, it would stand to reason that neither is held in very high regard. And they haven't necessarily done much in their time in the Brewer system to raise their prospect status. Also, this would be the ultimate "sell low" on Ortiz, as he fought injury and ineffectiveness at AA last year. If the Rays accepted this deal, I wouldn't wait until the ink was dry to fax it to the MLB offices.

 

But there is absolutely no way they'd accept it. If Archer is coming this way, top prospects are going back. Top prospects that had great seasons last year. I'm going to stick with my prediction of Santana, Burnes, Peralta and Gatewood. If Burnes stays, we are adding Hiura+.

[Mudville9]

The farm would be thinned out pretty significantly, but if we could swing a deal for Kipnis/Salazar around Santana+ and a deal for Archer around Phillips/Burnes/Peralta+ without giving up Hiura, we'd be pretty set for the next few years at the big league level while hopefully the guys further away continue to develop. The outfield is a little scary with Braun and Cain's ages, but still having Broxton on the cheap for the next 5 years helps a lot and makes losing all the other young outfielders feasible. Not to mention Thames and Perez' flexibility to play some outfield as well.

 

 

 

 

...unless Salazar gets hurt for an extended period of time, which he is apt to do. If the price is right I am very happy with Salazar, but I don't want to bet our window on it. If we are going after Salazar, that is great, but then we should go Darvish/Arrieta and not Archer.

[TJseven7]

Kipnis wasn't bad at all in 2016... other than Ks. He mashes rhp.

 

Kipnis Perez platoon? Kipnis Villar if he can get back to hitting lhp again. Career is better vs lhp, 2017 was terrible, 2016 was fantastic.

 

Don't think we can afford kipnis and a FA though. Double trade?

[And That]

If the Brewers deal for Kipnis, you'd have to think that even with the low-ish payroll they have now, the Brewers would still want Cleveland to kick in some dough. $30 million is too much risk for the season Kipnis had last year, injuries or not.

[TJseven7]

The farm would be thinned out pretty significantly, but if we could swing a deal for Kipnis/Salazar around Santana+ and a deal for Archer around Phillips/Burnes/Peralta+ without giving up Hiura, we'd be pretty set for the next few years at the big league level while hopefully the guys further away continue to develop. The outfield is a little scary with Braun and Cain's ages, but still having Broxton on the cheap for the next 5 years helps a lot and makes losing all the other young outfielders feasible. Not to mention Thames and Perez' flexibility to play some outfield as well.

 

 

 

 

...unless Salazar gets hurt for an extended period of time, which he is apt to do. If the price is right I am very happy with Salazar, but I don't want to bet our window on it. If we are going after Salazar, that is great, but then we should go Darvish/Arrieta and not Archer.

 

 

Archer salazar anderson davies chacin... salazar gets hurt... Woodruff. Its covered. Nelson hopefully soon enough.

 

Archer Nelson Salazar Anderson playoff rotation could surpise!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It will take Burns to get Archer. This I know.

 

Yep, if I'm the Rays, I demand Burnes plus a heavy haul of other top prospects. I imagine at this point, the "player hanging up the deal" is on the Brewers' side. It wouldn't surprise me if it was Phillips. He's the guy that would cause me to hit pause on the deal. Besides the fact that he is extremely young and talented, don't discount the fact that the kid has personality coming out of his ears, which makes him very, very marketable. The Brewers marketing department has to absolutely love him, as he's seemingly game for anything, is fun, goofy and doesn't take himself too seriously. he's basically the anti-Braun personality wise, and that can be very profitable, especially if he starts to put up star stats on the field. He's the kind of guy that national media types attach to, because he's an easy story. That has so, so much value to a small market team attempting to play with the big boys.

[FVBrewerFan]

Santana, Ortiz, Supak, Pennington

 

I simply do not want to deal away Phillips, Burnes, or Peralta. As I look over what's left of our top 10-15, those are the guys I keep at almost all costs, along with Hiura and Erceg.

 

Granted we really have no idea how other major league teams rank guys like Supak and Pennington, but considering they have been dealt in the last couple years in very minor deals, it would stand to reason that neither is held in very high regard. And they haven't necessarily done much in their time in the Brewer system to raise their prospect status. Also, this would be the ultimate "sell low" on Ortiz, as he fought injury and ineffectiveness at AA last year. If the Rays accepted this deal, I wouldn't wait until the ink was dry to fax it to the MLB offices.

 

But there is absolutely no way they'd accept it. If Archer is coming this way, top prospects are going back. Top prospects that had great seasons last year. I'm going to stick with my prediction of Santana, Burnes, Peralta and Gatewood. If Burnes stays, we are adding Hiura+.

 

I don't disagree with you, I'm sure that's what TB wants. It's just that I wouldn't do it. There's other options out there, and there's no way I'm giving away both Burnes/Peralta. Guessing (and it is just a guess) that's why Stearns hasn't agreed to this either. I think a deal like that is really minimizing Santana's value too.

[3and2Fastball]

You know what is a bigger media story and more marketable than Brett Phillips' adorable laugh? Winning a World Series.

 

It is time to get out of Mayberry, put on our big boy pants, and get ready to compete with the Yankees, Astros, and Cubs

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think a deal like that is really minimizing Santana's value too.

 

I agree with you wholeheartedly there. Granted HRs were way up last year, but cheap, durable 25-year-old corner OFers who hit .280 with 30 HRs and still have room for growth are rare commodities. If he's being traded as a throw-in on the Rays deal, I'd just assume increase the prospect package going to the Rays, and deal Santana to a different team for a prospect package that would at least make a dent in the level of talent we gave up to acquire Archer and Yelich.

[FVBrewerFan]

Mr. Heat:

 

You're hearing lots of talk about deals with the Rays and Indians. Do you know of any other team/ Starting Pitcher that the Brewers have serious talks going on?

[Warning Track Power]

The farm would be thinned out pretty significantly, but if we could swing a deal for Kipnis/Salazar around Santana+ and a deal for Archer around Phillips/Burnes/Peralta+ without giving up Hiura, we'd be pretty set for the next few years at the big league level while hopefully the guys further away continue to develop. The outfield is a little scary with Braun and Cain's ages, but still having Broxton on the cheap for the next 5 years helps a lot and makes losing all the other young outfielders feasible. Not to mention Thames and Perez' flexibility to play some outfield as well.

 

The real payoff is the rotation looks really solid and affordable for the next 3 years as well. It would be sooo tempting to go for it.

 

As long as we can hold onto Hiura, I'd be okay with losing all the talent in the upper minors to have the core of the big league team setup for the next 3-5 years like this:

 

[pre]Player 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

C Pina TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3

1B Thames 5.0M 6.0M 7.5M

2B Kipnis 13.5M 14.5M 2.5M buyout

3B Shaw TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3

SS Arcia TC TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3

OF Yelich 7.0M 9.7M 12.5M 14.0M 15.0M

OF Cain 13.0M 14.0M 15.0M 16.0M 17.0M

OF Braun 19.0M 18.0M 16.0M 4.0M buyout

 

C Vogt 3.1M ARB3

1B Aguilar TC TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3

IF Villar 2.5M ARB2 ARB3

IF Sogard 2.4M

UT Perez 2.0M ARB2 ARB3

OF Broxton TC TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3

 

Player 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

SP Archer 6.2M 7.5M 8.2M 8.2M

SP Salazar 5.0M ARB3 ARB4

SP Nelson 3.7M ARB2 ARB3

SP Anderson 4.2M 6.0M 8.5M 9.5M

SP Davies TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3

SP Chacin 8.0M 6.0M

 

CL Knebel 3.7M ARB2 ARB3 ARB4

RP Hader TC TC TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3

RP Albers 2.5M 2.5M

RP Logan 1.9M 4.1M

RP Barnes TC TC ARB1 ARB2 ARB3

RP Jeffress 1.7M 3.2M 4.3M[/pre]

This is an excellent post and succinctly wraps up where we as Brewer fans should have our heads in the event they make multiple trades for SP that clear the farm. While we all love the Burnes of the world, I also remember loving Nick Neugebauer, Bobby Hughes, Antone Williamson, Todd Dunn...etc. The difference between the Brewers of old and the Brewers of now is that the Brewers of now are dealing for players with long term control thereby negating some of the risk involved with the acquisition and allowing for a period of time for Stearns and the front office to rebuild the farm. No one can predict injuries and small markets need to protect against them by having a deep farm, but this team, with the likely dealing of prospects for controllable players, is ready to compete for a World Series. Let's get one or two!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

You know what is a bigger media story and more marketable than Brett Phillips' adorable laugh? Winning a World Series.

 

It is time to get out of Mayberry, put on our big boy pants, and get ready to compete with the Yankees, Astros, and Cubs

 

My post didn't even take into account my earlier posts saying that Phillips is the perfect fit on the field for what Stearns is trying to accomplish, as he'd be a Gold Glove-caliber RF, and at 23 years old is just coming into his own as a hitter.

 

But thanks for being condescending! It's appreciated.