What's Next

[Fear The Chorizo]

You aren't wrong but you have to admit it'd be very very unlikely we promote anyone to the MLB rotation off that list in the next 2-3 years.

 

If the Brewers winded up dealing for Archer and signing a FA starter to a 3-4 season contract, their starting rotation would essentially be under team control for that entire time, too - Archer, FA starter, Nelson, Chacin, Anderson, and Davies. That's six legit MLB starters without even considering whether Woodruff or Ortiz is part of a deal along with Burnes to Tampa. That also completely omits Hader from any starting role consideration in 2019 or 2020 - something I'm not ready to do yet. factor in swing guys capable of starting on occasion like Suter

 

That would allow younger starting pitching prospects to develop without feeling a need to rush them to extend a window. Guys like Ortiz, a healthy Kirby, or a Modeiros that puts it together could progress quickly in that timeframe.

[SandyTolan]

Wow - Burnes, Peralta, Santana, Phillips for Archer? That's just way too much! I know it's looked down upon here to cite ERA numbers, but homers and hard contact numbers for Archer aren't very good either, and he'll likely give up more homers in Miller Park. So I say, at that price, just walk away. Or maybe swap out Woodruff for Burnes, Broxton (plus Hernan or Aguilar?) for Phillips, Ponce or Diplan for Peralta.

 

So: Santana, Woodruff, Broxton, Hernan/Aguilar, Ponce. That' still a pretty good haul. But much less painful.

 

If Tampa is really demanding Burnes, Peralta, Santana and Phillips, I'd prefer just doing Santana for Salazar or Clevenger. I don't think Archer is so much better that he's worth an additional Peralta, Phillips, and Burnes. No way.

 

Put it this way... if you put together a trade package for archer where you step back and think, "that doesnt hurt so much..." it's not going to be enough. Broxton, aguilar, perez and ponce dont tip the scales

 

Maybe so. And if so, I say, time to walk away. Getting a good SP needn't cost that much.

Apparently it does need to cost that much. If they could get the equivalent or better of Archer for that package, it would have been done.

 

 

It does appear there are slightly lesser options at significantly lower prices.

 

Part of it is I'm not as sold on Archer as others here - certainly not at that price. And if it's that price or no go, then if I'm Stearns I'd be happy to walk.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

You aren't wrong but you have to admit it'd be very very unlikely we promote anyone to the MLB rotation off that list in the next 2-3 years. Williams Houser heck Bickford could hit the pen sooner than later but the kids have a ways to go.

 

Well, if Archer and Darvish or Arietta are acquired, in theory you don't need a lot for the next 2-3 years, barring injury. Archer and Darvish/Arietta are locked in for at least 4 years. Anderson is locked in for 4 years. Nelson is locked in for 3. Davies is locked in for 4. Chacis is locked in for 3. Woodruff for 5. That is a lot of long-term pitching depth.

 

Also, Burnes was drafted in 2016, so saying that a pitcher cannot make a quick rise through the system would be wrong. The Brewers have at least half a dozen recently drafted college arms or trade acquisitions in their early 20s that could theoretically put it together and make the jump.

[KeithStone53151]

For Archer - Santana’s in, because he should be - I think two pitching prospects make sense for Tampa, and Woodruff is actually a great choice because he can start the season in their rotation.

 

I think they can be moved off of Phillips, I’ll suggest Gatewood or Grisham, but then I think it comes down to Burnes.

 

Santana, Woodruff, Gatewood and Burnes is my guess, if this one happens at all.

 

I really don't want to lose burnes. I agree they should be able to be moved off Phillips, especially given their current outfield situation and acquiring Santana. I think we need to also move them off burnes and offer peralta or Ortiz in his stead. Maybe add a bullpen arm or a Pennington to sweeten the pot if needed.

 

If they insist on Burnes, the list must end there. Santana + Burnes + maybe a Gatewood or Grisham...that's it. I still think that's too much for Archer though.

[Jose Cardenal1]

So if the idea of possibly sending both Santana and Phillips in an Archer trade has been contemplated for a while, is that were the rumor about interest in Ellsbury came from?

 

If both Santana and Phillips are gone we are suddenly a little short in the OF given Braun's injury history (IMHO). Ellsbury with NY paying a significant portion of his salary (and throwing in a prospect) makes some sense (although we still wouldn't have a true RF). Clearly we wouldn't want to give NY any payroll flexibility until Darvish signs though as they would become a more serious bidder for him. So as with everything in MLB right now it all comes back to Darvish making a decision first.

[Fear The Chorizo]

And it's just difficult to project how quickly college or slowly developing but talented high school arms jump through the minor league ranks - unless you're a can't miss top of the draft arm (well, Appel's recent "retirement" kind of even negates that), arms often come out of nowhere and then move up through the ranks quickly. More often than not, command is what holds starting pitching prospects back from realizing the potential that got them drafted - command sometimes never develops, sometimes it just clicks at various stages of a pitcher's career.

[TJseven7]

3 addition points to full blown all in...

 

1) Braun to 1b phillips to RF sets up a gold glove OF. Thames in 138 games was a 1.4 war player. Phillips in 39 games was a 1.4 war player. Thames will still get 80-90 games mashing rhp. Phillips needs to start.

 

2) Hope Villar reverts. Do you want to go all in and leave holes such as, hope villar reverts? I don't. Whit is damn good. Villar can come off the bench and we can hope he reverts there. Sogard ortiz ray dubon for as much of a sure thing at 2b as you can hope for isn't a bad thing. Cheap 5 years of control.

 

3) nottingham, feliciano, kj, huira, carmona, erceg, grisham, lutz, stokes... add all the pitchers listed a few posts above. Thats a lot of scratch offs.

 

In another forum a guy brought this up. My take, im conflicted. I'm on one hand frugal as hell, but on the other hand I believe if you aren't winning a title you are wasting your time. 4 year full on.

 

Get a top 4

Archer for Santana Burnes Peralta Gatewood Ponce Aguilar

Merrifield for Ray Ortiz Dubon Sogard

 

Pina vogt, braun thames, merrifield villar, arcia, shaw perez, yelich cain phillips broxton

Archer cobb (just picked 1) anderson davies chacin/woodruff... nelson

Knebel hader albers jeffress logan barnes suter

Cain yelich braun/thames shaw merrifield phillips pina arcia

 

F it... why not!

[Madhawk23]

HH19 - is there a gut feeling on when some of these dominoes could fall? I realize nothing is set in stone with any of this yet, but boy it would be great to get some news this weekend. Is everything contingent on Darvish and where he ends up going (if he ever actually makes a decision), or is it possible that an Archer deal could happen before Darvish decides?

[HighHeat19]

HH19 - is there a gut feeling on when some of these dominoes could fall? I realize nothing is set in stone with any of this yet, but boy it would be great to get some news this weekend. Is everything contingent on Darvish and where he ends up going (if he ever actually makes a decision), or is it possible that an Archer deal could happen before Darvish decides?

 

Text from my source this morning: Multiple trades are still in place. One trade is hung up on 1 player. Brewers are waiting for the call. Darvish camp quiet. High on Kipnis.

[BuckyBrewer61]

2) Hope Villar reverts. Do you want to go all in and leave holes such as, hope villar reverts?

 

Arguably the best team in Brewers history had Yuni B at SS, Casey McGehee at 3rd (until we traded for Hairston), and Mark Kotsay as our 4th OF. I'm not a Villar fan, but also don't want to empty out the farm. Not every single position on the field needs to be a star to contend.

[FVBrewerFan]

Santana, Ortiz, Supak, Pennington

 

I simply do not want to deal away Phillips, Burnes, or Peralta. As I look over what's left of our top 10-15, those are the guys I keep at almost all costs, along with Hiura and Erceg.

[KeithStone53151]

HH19 - is there a gut feeling on when some of these dominoes could fall? I realize nothing is set in stone with any of this yet, but boy it would be great to get some news this weekend. Is everything contingent on Darvish and where he ends up going (if he ever actually makes a decision), or is it possible that an Archer deal could happen before Darvish decides?

 

Text from my source: Multiple trades are still in place. One trade is hung up on 1 player. Brewers are waiting for the call. Darvish camp quiet. High on Kipnis.

 

Does Cleveland trade include a pitcher coming our way?

[BuckyBrewer61]

Anyone with insight into Kipnis? I don't really know much outside of his stats. Past 5 years - stats are really good for 3 of them and pretty bad for 2 of them (including last year).

[Bench Coach 5]

Anyone with insight into Kipnis? I don't really know much outside of his stats. Past 5 years - stats are really good for 3 of them and pretty bad for 2 of them (including last year).

 

I am pretty sure that he was fighting through injuries the 2 bad years. When healthy he is solid.

[jonescm128]

HH19 - is there a gut feeling on when some of these dominoes could fall? I realize nothing is set in stone with any of this yet, but boy it would be great to get some news this weekend. Is everything contingent on Darvish and where he ends up going (if he ever actually makes a decision), or is it possible that an Archer deal could happen before Darvish decides?

 

Text from my source this morning: Multiple trades are still in place. One trade is hung up on 1 player. Brewers are waiting for the call. Darvish camp quiet. High on Kipnis.

 

 

"I don't know who you are. I don't know what you want. But what you do have is a very particular set of skills. Skills you have acquired over a long career. Skills that make you a blessing to people like us"

 

Just joined, always hear your name come up. Thanks for all the tidbits of info!

[superfly]

2) Hope Villar reverts. Do you want to go all in and leave holes such as, hope villar reverts?

 

Arguably the best team in Brewers history had Yuni B at SS, Casey McGehee at 3rd (until we traded for Hairston), and Mark Kotsay as our 4th OF. I'm not a Villar fan, but also don't want to empty out the farm. Not every single position on the field needs to be a star to contend.

 

I don't see a need to pay a #8 hitter 8-10 million dollars when he has the upside of a leadoff man WHEN playing great.

[Fear The Chorizo]

injuries and age are his biggest issues. Shoulder, hammy, back issues (I probably missed something, too) cost him in 2017, and at his age those type of problems aren't too kind to middle infielders. If healthy, he's a great offensive 2B that can still play serviceable defense, but he's about to be 31 and has alot of $ left on his contract.

 

If its just Kipnis coming to Milwaukee in a trade, there shouldn't be a ton headed that direction if they take on most of his remaining salary.

[And That]

Kipnis, when healthy, is one of the best hitters in baseball. Problem is the health thing, and he's owed $30 million through the end of 2019.

[TJseven7]

You aren't wrong but you have to admit it'd be very very unlikely we promote anyone to the MLB rotation off that list in the next 2-3 years. Williams Houser heck Bickford could hit the pen sooner than later but the kids have a ways to go.

 

Well, if Archer and Darvish or Arietta are acquired, in theory you don't need a lot for the next 2-3 years, barring injury. Archer and Darvish/Arietta are locked in for at least 4 years. Anderson is locked in for 4 years. Nelson is locked in for 3. Davies is locked in for 4. Chacis is locked in for 3. Woodruff for 5. That is a lot of long-term pitching depth.

 

Also, Burnes was drafted in 2016, so saying that a pitcher cannot make a quick rise through the system would be wrong. The Brewers have at least half a dozen recently drafted college arms or trade acquisitions in their early 20s that could theoretically put it together and make the jump.

 

I don't disagree. Burnes could see mke in august. Thats a bit over 2 full seasons. We could absolutely draft a guy in 2018 who could fast track by 2021. I just don't think there are options after burnes ortiz peralta (ponce dealt in my trade ideas) who will. I love kodi, he's still a huge project. Webb lemons murphy perrin owensby etc etc yeah the list is very long. We wouldn't need one for 3 years as long as woodruff is good and we are afforded health. All true. It's going to take a fast and drastic change for anyone in our system to get majors rotation ready in less than 3 years.

[djd1228]

HH19 - is there a gut feeling on when some of these dominoes could fall? I realize nothing is set in stone with any of this yet, but boy it would be great to get some news this weekend. Is everything contingent on Darvish and where he ends up going (if he ever actually makes a decision), or is it possible that an Archer deal could happen before Darvish decides?

 

Text from my source: Multiple trades are still in place. One trade is hung up on 1 player. Brewers are waiting for the call. Darvish camp quiet. High on Kipnis.

 

Sigh... guess im refreshing twitter all day again

[Madhawk23]

If what HH19 is saying is true, and we're still looking to pick up both a SP in a trade and one of the big FA pitchers, I think I'm more inclined to push harder for Salazar with Cleveland than I am with TB for Archer. I know that Archer has more of a track record of success (although not really in the past two years), more durability and more years of control. But, adding an Arrieta or Cobb to he rotation along with Salazar would certainly make for a solid rotation to start the year. Then, you could hold onto guys like Burnes, Phillips and Peralta which would still give you some flexibility to make a deal a the deadline this July to solidify the team even more.

 

Could a Santana to Cleveland for Salazar and Kipnis work - with us eating most of the Kipnis salary? Would Cleveland be looking to rid themselves of that Kipnis contract enough to not ask more more prospects in that deal?

[TJseven7]

2) Hope Villar reverts. Do you want to go all in and leave holes such as, hope villar reverts?

 

Arguably the best team in Brewers history had Yuni B at SS, Casey McGehee at 3rd (until we traded for Hairston), and Mark Kotsay as our 4th OF. I'm not a Villar fan, but also don't want to empty out the farm. Not every single position on the field needs to be a star to contend.

 

Well good, because I dont expect pina arcia or phillips to be stars. That was CC right. If I'm misremembering then it was Grienke. Yeah we don't have that guy either.

[pacopete4]

Kipnis is scary. He could be an amazing player for us but he could be a dud. And while that is true about just about every player, he is owed quite a bit of money. Considering we are upwards of $100M and we still are in the mix for other moves, I'm not sure this is the direction we should go when we have Villar, Sogard, Perez in-house that are pretty reasonable contracts. I guess it depends what we give up and if they are footing the bill for some of it.

[djd1228]

2) Hope Villar reverts. Do you want to go all in and leave holes such as, hope villar reverts?

 

Arguably the best team in Brewers history had Yuni B at SS, Casey McGehee at 3rd (until we traded for Hairston), and Mark Kotsay as our 4th OF. I'm not a Villar fan, but also don't want to empty out the farm. Not every single position on the field needs to be a star to contend.

 

Well good, because I dont expect pina arcia or phillips to be stars. That was CC right. If I'm misremembering then it was Grienke. Yeah we don't have that guy either.

 

That was 2011. Yuni B because Alcidies was traded for Grienke.

[adambr2]

Kipnis, when healthy, is one of the best hitters in baseball. Problem is the health thing, and he's owed $30 million through the end of 2019.

 

Which in a way is kind of a good thing for us now because he should be more affordable as far as trade currency goes.