What's Next

[3and2Fastball]

High Heat: any guess on when the Archer trade will be completed? I remember when you said "95% chance Yelich will be a Brewer", you sure were right!

 

What percentage chance would you put on Archer being a Brewer? Thanks!

[MKEguy]

Would you rather have Archer and Darvish, or Darvish and Lynn?

 

But that's not really a fair comparison, is it?

 

Given the amount reportedly requested for Archer, wouldn't it be:

 

Archer and Darvish or Darvish, Lynn, Santana (or whatever Santana brings in a trade with someone else), Phillips, Burnes and Peralta?

 

It doesn't sound quite as good when you look at it that way, does it?

 

Just like what they explained above... If we signed Yu, would the team then be able to sign the third largest contract in franchise history, which all three would be in the same off season?

 

That Yelich trade along with the Cain signing threw me for a loop, so who knows... It sure isn't me!

[Warning Track Power]

Honestly at this point I’d be content with just signing Arrieta and rolling with what you’ve got. It gives us a punchers chance with a decent rotation and a quality offense while allowing us to hold onto our top prospects, many of whom will be ready in the next year or two. If we’re goig to give up three more top prospects for Archer it’ll set the farm back a good three to four years, particularly if those prospects are pitchers. It’s taken us a longtime to develop pitching prospects as quality as Burnes, Ortiz and Woodruff. I’d hate to have to start all over.

My sentiments exactly. I want Archer bad. Not bad enough to decimate the farm though. Overpaying for Arrieta and keeping the farm together is a much better path.

[HighHeat19]

Honestly at this point I’d be content with just signing Arrieta and rolling with what you’ve got. It gives us a punchers chance with a decent rotation and a quality offense while allowing us to hold onto our top prospects, many of whom will be ready in the next year or two. If we’re goig to give up three more top prospects for Archer it’ll set the farm back a good three to four years, particularly if those prospects are pitchers. It’s taken us a longtime to develop pitching prospects as quality as Burnes, Ortiz and Woodruff. I’d hate to have to start all over.

 

I'm not saying this philosophy is right or wrong. But in short, if your going to pass up Burnes, Ortiz and Woodruff to be part of an Archer trade. Then one of those 3 HAVE to be Archer when it's their time. And by then, the rest of the team maybe in regression.

 

Simply put, if your going to hold onto 3 quarters, they HAVE to turn into a dollar down the road. Otherwise you would be a fool for not taking the full dollar in the first place.

[JoeCoolMan24]

Would you rather have Archer and Darvish, or Darvish and Lynn?

 

But that's not really a fair comparison, is it?

 

Given the amount reportedly requested for Archer, wouldn't it be:

 

Archer and Darvish or Darvish, Lynn, Santana (or whatever Santana brings in a trade with someone else), Phillips, Burnes and Peralta?

 

It doesn't sound quite as good when you look at it that way, does it?

 

Right, that's why I said it's not really that cut and dry, but when you are looking at this from the perspective of improving your 2018 major league roster, you are talking losing....what, 2 bench OFers in Santana and Phillips? Your OF is already set with Braun-Cain-Yelich. Yes, losing a couple pitching prospects can sting, but don't forget you are REPLACING them with 2 ALL-STAR levels MAJOR LEAGUERS. Prospects are highly volatile stock. They are currency in which is valued at their potential, not their current talent.

 

As I've said, I'm not a Brewers fan, so I don't have an emotional attachment to these prospects. You could find a fair return from the White Sox for Archer and I'm sure I would also feel very nervous and stressed about it, but that's why being a GM isn't easy. You have to kill your babies.

[bluescale]

Do you think Cobb can return to greatness?

 

Remind me again when Cobb was great? He doesn't have elite velocity, doesn't have elite control, and isn't particularly durable. What Alex Cobb seems to think he's worth is a real head scratcher.

[TJseven7]

From what I know, a trade of Santana, Phillips, Burnes and Peralta is what TB want's for Archer. Steep??? Yes. Ticked off at first??? Prolly

 

Then If Archer is an All Star mid July, then would you argue this trade? I wouldn't.

 

The question is, will Archer be an All Star mid July???

 

Remember he's leaving the American League East for the NL.

He will have a tremendous Defense behind him.

He has a pitching coach who polished some rocks last year.

 

It could be the trade that makes or breaks Stearns in the casual fan's eyes. But, I think these type of trades are the ones that put you over the top. There's enough history out there to prove that even though it looks like it would lean towards T.B........at first.

 

Brutal brutal ask. Brutal. You said yelich would sting... eh. This yikes. I'm really not crazy about cain in rf and yelich in cf either.

 

I'd rather santana salazar straight up. Take my chances on salazar burnes peralta than archer.

 

So the tb increase was ortiz to burnes I assume?

[JoeCoolMan24]

Do you think Cobb can return to greatness?

 

Remind me again when Cobb was great? He doesn't have elite velocity, doesn't have elite control, and isn't particularly durable. What Alex Cobb seems to think he's worth is a real head scratcher.

 

Yeah, "great" is never something I would associate with Cobb so far. The dude is 30, you can't expect him to really be more than a peak 3-WAR guy in a new contract. He's a decent #3 arm, but he's also someone who has never even reach 180 IP before, so he's a #3 with risk, IMO. I'd give that guy like 3/$45M.

[3and2Fastball]

Do you think Cobb can return to greatness?

 

Remind me again when Cobb was great? He doesn't have elite velocity, doesn't have elite control, and isn't particularly durable. What Alex Cobb seems to think he's worth is a real head scratcher.

 

2013-2014

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cobbal01.shtml

[HighHeat19]

High Heat: any guess on when the Archer trade will be completed? I remember when you said "95% chance Yelich will be a Brewer", you sure were right!

 

What percentage chance would you put on Archer being a Brewer? Thanks!

 

I knew the players that were getting sent for Yelich, that's why I said 95%.

 

I know some names that were tossed around for Archer. Where it stands right now. My opinion would be 85%. The Rays tipped their hand yesterday by saying they mentioned to Archer that he will "likely" be a Ray this year. I'm not doubting they said that. But they said "likely".........The Ray's are full of it.

[Brewer16]

I'm in! Let's do it! Let's get all the pitchers! What a time to be a Crew fan!

[Jkromb]

I wouldn’t feel bad about giving up Burnes and Santana plus for Archer.. he has always been the guy I wanted. Burnes isn’t that good to me, and I think Luis could end up being better anyways..

[old hickory]

just a thought... on the chance that Santana and Phillips are traded... does Braun go back to playing RF? I think part of the luster that Cain and Yelich brought were nailing down solid defense in CF and LF respectively... moving Braun back to RF, or Cain to RF and Yelich to CF probably brings down that possibility of a vaunted defense...

 

instead of phillips, how about we make them the tampa bay corey rays?

[HighHeat19]

just a thought... on the chance that Santana and Phillips are traded... does Braun go back to playing RF? I think part of the luster that Cain and Yelich brought were nailing down solid defense in CF and LF respectively... moving Braun back to RF, or Cain to RF and Yelich to CF probably brings down that possibility of a vaunted defense...

 

instead of phillips, how about we make them the tampa bay corey rays?

 

If they didn't value Brinson, their not going to value Ray. Who is pretty much Brinson light.

[TJseven7]

just a thought... on the chance that Santana and Phillips are traded... does Braun go back to playing RF? I think part of the luster that Cain and Yelich brought were nailing down solid defense in CF and LF respectively... moving Braun back to RF, or Cain to RF and Yelich to CF probably brings down that possibility of a vaunted defense...

 

instead of phillips, how about we make them the tampa bay corey rays?

 

Honestly I'd be in on santana ortiz ray kodi ponce in a heartbeat.

 

Leave Woodruff Burnes Fperalta Huira Lutz Erceg Phillips and Carmona and I'm good. Hell they can have dubon and grisham too lol.

[JoeCoolMan24]

how about we make them the tampa bay corey rays?

 

Oh man, I wanted the Sox to draft Ray SOO badly. Now after his less than stellar start to his pro career, I am actually glad they got Zack Collins instead.

[Mudville9]

Man if this deal goes down, the fact that Wren didn't get picked in the Rule V makes me happy. Not sure he can play right if Braun goes down, but he can probably cover center/left for 15 days quite well. He's not going to win us any games, but he could save a few runs and get on base.

[paul253]

But in short, if your going to pass up Burnes, Ortiz and Woodruff to be part of an Archer trade. Then one of those 3 HAVE to be Archer when it's their time. And by then, the rest of the team maybe in regression.

 

I think it’s a little more complicated than that. If you keep all three vs trading all three it has a ripple effect elsewhere. Even if they don’t turn into a #2 like Archer and rather you get two #3s and a #4 it alllows

you to fill in the rotation with cheap homegrown alternatives, which in turn allows you sign other guys down the line or trade someone like Davies or Anderson as you now have replacements for them. That obviously would get you more players to help.

 

If, instead you move two or all of them for Archer then a year or two from now there are still two spots in the rotation to fill that would have otherwise been filled, meaning you now need to expend resources to fill the spots vs using them elsewhere (a solid reliever for instance). Or even if there is no room for them you miss on an opportunity to make the Davies or Anderson trade which would prevent an influx of prospects (or whatever you get in return).

 

I think at this point it’s just best to sign an Arrietta and be done UNLESS you can get a pitcher in a favorable trade. It doesn’t sound like TB wants quantity over quality but maybe our quality can include only an Ortiz or only a Burnes plus positional prospects and lesser ceiling pitchers like Medeiros. We still have no idea if Anderson can repeat his breakout year or if Nelson can come back and be the same pitcher he was before a serious should injury. I’d be very hesitant to move our cheap, homegrown insurance at this point.

[old hickory]

 

Honestly I'd be in on santana ortiz ray kodi ponce in a heartbeat.

 

Leave Woodruff Burnes Fperalta Huira Lutz Erceg Phillips and Carmona and I'm good. Hell they can have dubon and grisham too lol.

 

i feel like if we both agree, it's never enough... better throw some Clint Coulter and Tyrone Taylor at it

 

 

If they didn't value Brinson, their not going to value Ray. Who is pretty much Brinson light.

 

can't argue with that unfortunately... my preference has been to keep phillips, but if I'm nitpicking over a 4th OFer type here, I shouldn't really be that upset... that laugh tho

 

overall, I would still take that deal... a window like this doesn't come often, and to keep it open for, give or take, 5 years? I'm buying

[TJseven7]

Basically if we go overpay Darvish and add archer.

 

Darvish 5

Archer 4

Nelson 3

Anderson 4

Davies 4

...................

Chacin 2

Woodruff 6

 

Knebel 4

Hader 6

 

Can afford being down nelson with ease. If nelson comes back well rotation is stacked for 3 years.. 4 if Woodruff or Ortiz are good. Only dude we'd EXPECT to graduate in that time to the rotation is Ortiz. The rest are a long way off or too unknown. There are a lot of interesting names but nothing in the vicinity of a given.

 

2b is still waiting on Huira. OF isn't perfect until Braun is a 1b and we have a new CF or RF. (Assuming phillips and santana are in the deal.) C is up for debate.

 

Do we go after a top 4 arm and Archer and keep going? Double back on Merrifield? RF? We can't spend more than a top arm without arby killing us down the road.

 

Pina 4

Thames braun 3. But there's roughly 22 mil invested there yearly. (Shaw/Erceg hope)

2b is a question (huira hope)

Arcia 5

Shaw 4

Yelich 5

Cain 5

RF becomes a question (Lutz hope)

 

Would suck to DESTROY the farm but its fairly set for 4 years... if its not restocked by then you burn it down. Destroy it to a shell of itself with Huira Lutz Erceg Ortiz?

 

Trade Ray dubon grisham and a couple lottery arms?

 

Go big... real big? 4 year hard push window then rebuild?

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

To me, if you're going to go out and give a package similar to what HH mentioned for Archer, I think you have to plan to sign another pitcher, whether that be Darvish, Cobb, Arrieta, or Lynn. One more solid to great arm to add to Archer, and this offense and you will really be in business.

 

For the record, even with the steep price HH mentioned that Tampa wants, I would do it and I don't think I would think twice about it.

 

It also feels like the dam is about to break and we're going to hear something either before or during the weekend. Just a gut feeling.

[umpref]

i agree steep price to pay, but like a post before said, with all the potential key pieces (Archer, FA pitcher, yelich, Cain) locked up for next 4-5 years, it gives time for some more development and replenishment of system. Amateur scouting staff needs to nail next few drafts for sure.

[PDXBrewCrew]

There's the possibility of adding ONE more starting pitcher, either through a trade or a free agent signing, but the chances of adding two is nil. Payroll is about $90M now. Adding a free agent starter along with one from a trade (presumably Archer) would add another $25M-$35M to that. That puts the payroll above what it was anytime during the 08-14 window.

 

Pitcher X, Nelson (when he returns), Anderson, Davies, Chachin. There's your rotation. They aren't going to be paying Chacin $8M to pitch out of the bullpen when Nelson comes back.

[WestCoastCrew]

Braun should never see right field ever again. So horrible out there. I say Yelich gets a shot in right (I know he hasn't played there in the bigs), with Braun rotating between left and first. Broxton is the fourth outfielder. Perez sees spot time in right. Maybe sign a backup outfielder who plays right since you likely need a fifth outfielder.

 

A way out-of-the-box thought: Erceg in right? Played some short in college, so he is athletic enough. Has a good arm. But limited time in Triple-A would be the holdup. That would also keep him from getting stuck behind Shaw at third.

[fondybrewfan]

This is the way I see it assuming by some miracle we trade for Archer with HH's package ands sign one of Arrieta or Darvish

 

Starting Rotation - Our Top 4 is locked in for no less than 3 years (Archer, Nelson, Anderson, Darvish/Arrieta) and in the background you still have Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, Ortiz, Bickford, Ponce, Suter, and Supak who could be reinforcements over the next 3 years plus obviously the new draft picks. With that said some of our top pitching prospects like Burnes or Peralta would be expendable. Archer and Darvish/Arrieta are what we would only hope Burnes or Peralta would eventually become 3 years from now. IF Mark says he can afford this then god bless him. Also keep in mind that Hader is a wildcard, he obviously has the potential to be a very good SP should the organization feel the need to push him that way in the future.

 

Position Players - Basically everyone but 2B is settled for quite some time with Braun being a bit of an unknown on where he would play. We could stand to upgrade C at some point but its not bad. Again I don't know that we will need a ton of prospects to supplement the offense but Huira, Erceg, Lutz, Ray, Grisham, Gatewood, Dubon, etc. are likely to at least produce a couple MLB players out of that group.

 

Basically where I am at is Stearns is trying to put together a core group of players that will be signed for 3+ years which makes us far less reliant on our current prospects who are more advanced (AA+). Yes we still need depth but I think it is still there even if we trade the HH package for Archer. And unless the Darvish/Arrieta contract is just outrageous we probably would still only have one untradeable contract in Braun if everything falls apart. My excitement going into the season would be off the charts and I couldn't imagine how much better the Atmosphere will be at Miller Park