What's Next

[KeithStone53151]

From what I know, a trade of Santana, Phillips, Burnes and Peralta is what TB want's for Archer. Steep??? Yes. Ticked off at first??? Prolly

 

Then If Archer is an All Star mid July, then would you argue this trade? I wouldn't.

 

The question is, will Archer be an All Star mid July???

 

Remember he's leaving the American League East for the NL.

He will have a tremendous Defense behind him.

He has a pitching coach who polished some rocks last year.

 

It could be the trade that makes or breaks Stearns in the casual fan's eyes. But, I think these type of trades are the ones that put you over the top. There's enough history out there to prove that even though it looks like it would lean towards T.B........at first.

 

I'm a bit baffled by that ask. That's a wild ask, holy mackeral. I'm definitely going to look at other options if tampa doesn't become more reasonable.

[3and2Fastball]

If you look at the trends of the game, and how many HR's are being hit, as well as look at Santana & Phillips' strike out rates, the ask makes sense. It is really a trade for Burnes & Peralta with Santana & Phillips thrown in...

[KeithStone53151]

From what I know, a trade of Santana, Phillips, Burnes and Peralta is what TB want's for Archer. Steep??? Yes. Ticked off at first??? Prolly

 

Then If Archer is an All Star mid July, then would you argue this trade? I wouldn't.

 

The question is, will Archer be an All Star mid July???

 

Remember he's leaving the American League East for the NL.

He will have a tremendous Defense behind him.

He has a pitching coach who polished some rocks last year.

 

It could be the trade that makes or breaks Stearns in the casual fan's eyes. But, I think these type of trades are the ones that put you over the top. There's enough history out there to prove that even though it looks like it would lean towards T.B........at first.

 

I'm a bit baffled by that ask. That's a wild ask, holy mackeral. I'm definitely going to look at other options if tampa doesn't become more reasonable.

 

Honestly, that ask is so insanely high to me...I'm not even countering something like that. I'm asking them to open with something more reasonable or I'll look elsewhere. There are other good SP we can target.

[McRibMcLove]

I'm a bit baffled by that ask. That's a wild ask, holy mackeral. I'm definitely going to look at other options if tampa doesn't become more reasonable.

agreed.

 

It may take signing a FA pitcher first to have more leverage that we can walk away from the Rays unless they take less. Until Darvish decides (and I have little hope he will pick Milwaukee) the other free agents will wait it out.

[Mudville9]

From what I know, a trade of Santana, Phillips, Burnes and Peralta is what TB want's for Archer. Steep??? Yes. Ticked off at first??? Prolly

 

Wow...Santana, Phillips, Burnes and Peralta? I was hoping if Santana was in it we could get away with Santana, Burnes and a couple smaller pieces. Unless we have Darvish lined up, I don't know if I pay that. If we have Darvish lined up...I guess. I don't think Phillips should be in there.

[JoeCoolMan24]

Quintana is younger than Archer and has put up better numbers (115 ERA+ & 3.53 ERA in his career vs Archer 108 ERA+ and 3.63 ERA)

 

From 2013 through 2017 Quintana put up a 22 WAR compared to Archer's 12

 

I don't think they are really considered at the same value

 

Quintana is 4 months younger. They will both be 29 through all of 2018. They are the same age.

 

The last 3 years, which is generally what teams evaluate a player on, Archer had 13 fWAR to Quintana's 13.3 fWAR. Quintana got traded with 3+ years left. Archer may get traded with 4 years left. Archer has $33.7M left. Quintana has $29.8M left.

 

It's hard to get any more comparable than that, unless you want to factor in Q being a LHP and Archer being a RHP.

[HighHeat19]

From what I know, a trade of Santana, Phillips, Burnes and Peralta is what TB want's for Archer. Steep??? Yes. Ticked off at first??? Prolly

 

Then If Archer is an All Star mid July, then would you argue this trade? I wouldn't.

 

The question is, will Archer be an All Star mid July???

 

Remember he's leaving the American League East for the NL.

He will have a tremendous Defense behind him.

He has a pitching coach who polished some rocks last year.

 

It could be the trade that makes or breaks Stearns in the casual fan's eyes. But, I think these type of trades are the ones that put you over the top. There's enough history out there to prove that even though it looks like it would lean towards T.B........at first.

 

I'm a bit baffled by that ask. That's a wild ask, holy mackeral. I'm definitely going to look at other options if tampa doesn't become more reasonable.

 

Yes, it may seem that way but take yourself out of your shoes and put yourself in Tampa's Shoes. Santana can't play D, and had 1 great year last year. Brinson has a tremendous arm but had contact issues the last few years in the minors. Burnes and Peralta are both good but are they future All Stars??? In order for a trade to break even, an ALL STAR MUST come from the group of players sent for the guaranteed ALL STAR. Yes the other players may help in a capacity, but in most cases those are baseline WAR players that are already in the teams minors that have acquired the surplus of players for their ALL STAR.

 

Hence, it's pretty much a given that Yelich will be an All Star. I don't see Harrison or Diaz as an All Star as the just don't make enough contact even against peer pitching. I don't see it with Yamamoto either. Possibly Brinson, but Brinson has contact issues as well and Colorado is like adding Alcohol to the Cool Aid. The Marlins are hoping ONE just One of these players become All Star material. Personally, I see the Brewer's the flat out winner in that trade as I don't see an All Star coming out of that group.

 

And..... is there a guaranteed All Star coming out of Brinson, Santana, Burnes, Peralta?

[JoeCoolMan24]

From what I know, a trade of Santana, Phillips, Burnes and Peralta is what TB want's for Archer.

 

Sounds about right from a pitcher with 4 years of cheap CHEAP control left. That's honestly a huge factor people probably don't consider. You got a guy making less than $9M AAV over the next 4 years to be a potential all-star all 4 years. That would cost you $25M+ a year on the open market. You are talking $70M or so in surplus value. That $70M can do a lot for a franchise. That could easily be adding Cobb right there.

[3and2Fastball]

Quintana is younger than Archer and has put up better numbers (115 ERA+ & 3.53 ERA in his career vs Archer 108 ERA+ and 3.63 ERA)

 

From 2013 through 2017 Quintana put up a 22 WAR compared to Archer's 12

 

I don't think they are really considered at the same value

 

Quintana is 4 months younger. They will both be 29 through all of 2018. They are the same age.

 

The last 3 years, which is generally what teams evaluate a player on, Archer had 13 fWAR to Quintana's 13.3 fWAR. Quintana got traded with 3+ years left. Archer may get traded with 4 years left. Archer has $33.7M left. Quintana has $29.8M left.

 

It's hard to get any more comparable than that, unless you want to factor in Q being a LHP and Archer being a RHP.

 

Very good points made, I hear you.

 

You need to look at Quintana's numbers from 2014-2016, as that is what the Cubs were evaluating, looking at Quintana's first half of 2017 as an anomoly. And I stand corrected on the age, for some reason

I thought Archer was older...

[MNBrew]

From what I know, a trade of Santana, Phillips, Burnes and Peralta is what TB want's for Archer. Steep??? Yes. Ticked off at first??? Prolly

 

Then If Archer is an All Star mid July, then would you argue this trade? I wouldn't.

 

The question is, will Archer be an All Star mid July???

 

Remember he's leaving the American League East for the NL.

He will have a tremendous Defense behind him.

He has a pitching coach who polished some rocks last year.

 

It could be the trade that makes or breaks Stearns in the casual fan's eyes. But, I think these type of trades are the ones that put you over the top. There's enough history out there to prove that even though it looks like it would lean towards T.B........at first.

Wow, that's steep! Santana's a strong commodity. Burnes is prospect gold at the moment and rightly so, yet also understandably the "gotta give something to get something" piece. Phillips AND Peralta seems way too much. Swapping Broxton for Phillips would make it more palatable, though I think I'd also rather lose two of Lemons, Supak, & Ponce over Peralta.

[HighHeat19]

From what I know, a trade of Santana, Phillips, Burnes and Peralta is what TB want's for Archer.

 

Sounds about right from a pitcher with 4 years of cheap CHEAP control left. That's honestly a huge factor people probably don't consider. You got a guy making less than $9M AAV over the next 4 years to be a potential all-star all 4 years. That would cost you $25M+ a year on the open market. You are talking $70M or so in surplus value. That $70M can do a lot for a franchise. That could easily be adding Cobb right there.

 

Exactly! That steep trade for Archer isn't just for Archer. That trade gets you get Archer AND a Darvish or Arrieta.

 

That is huge.

 

It's really the same concept as Yelich and Cain. You can afford Cain cuz you got Yelich.

[JoeCoolMan24]

Or think about it this way....put Archer on the open market right now. What would he sign for? 6 years/$175M? $180M? That's $29-$30M AAV right there. But instead, the Brewers commitment is about $140M LESS than that, while also removing his age 34 and 35 seasons, seasons in which are almost always promised to be sunk-costs. You have now limited your commitment length AND dollars. His contract alone is worth a good prospect.

[3and2Fastball]

Man oh man, you have a rotation of

 

Darvish or Arrieta

Archer

Anderson

Nelson

Chacin

 

You might as well start planning on a Stearns statue outside of Miller Park. By 2020 nobody is gonna care about losing Santana, Phillips & Burnes...

[HighHeat19]

By 2020 nobody is gonna care about losing Santana, Phillips & Burnes...

 

That is how I feel as well.

[3and2Fastball]

By 2020 nobody is gonna care about losing Santana, Phillips & Burnes...

 

That is how I feel as well.

 

As long as we get Darvish or Arrieta. The Brewers can't just stop at getting Archer and say "our rotation is complete".

 

Do you think Cobb can return to greatness? I just can't see him on the same level as Arrieta or Darvish. What am I missing?

[anglotiger]

From what I know, a trade of Santana, Phillips, Burnes and Peralta is what TB want's for Archer. Steep??? Yes. Ticked off at first??? Prolly

 

Then If Archer is an All Star mid July, then would you argue this trade? I wouldn't.

 

The question is, will Archer be an All Star mid July???

 

Remember he's leaving the American League East for the NL.

He will have a tremendous Defense behind him.

He has a pitching coach who polished some rocks last year.

 

It could be the trade that makes or breaks Stearns in the casual fan's eyes. But, I think these type of trades are the ones that put you over the top. There's enough history out there to prove that even though it looks like it would lean towards T.B........at first.

 

I'm a bit baffled by that ask. That's a wild ask, holy mackeral. I'm definitely going to look at other options if tampa doesn't become more reasonable.

 

I'm not at all surprised. You have a commodity that is in demand, and your ask starts high. That's how negotiation works. You always try to get as much as you can, even though you might be prepared to take less. There's no harm in trying - you never know when you'll get lucky...

 

If that were the trade and he was an All-Star in mid-July? I would still argue it. All that means is that he had half of a good season (and/or they had to pick one Brewer)...

 

He's a good pitcher, but it's an awful lot to give up. Remove Phillips from the deal and then perhaps... Of course, it's probably a good thing that I'm not the GM...

[Mudville9]

Ugh, I get it, but Phillips is killing me. He might not pan out, but he just seems like one of those guys that keeps everyone loose in a playoff run. I have to admit, I'm getting excited though. Darvish/Arrieta, Archer, Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff with Nelson coming in later is pretty good. Hopefully Stearns can replace Phillips or Burnes with a slightly lower player before the deal is done.

[MKEguy]

From what I know, a trade of Santana, Phillips, Burnes and Peralta is what TB want's for Archer.

 

Sounds about right from a pitcher with 4 years of cheap CHEAP control left. That's honestly a huge factor people probably don't consider. You got a guy making less than $9M AAV over the next 4 years to be a potential all-star all 4 years. That would cost you $25M+ a year on the open market. You are talking $70M or so in surplus value. That $70M can do a lot for a franchise. That could easily be adding Cobb right there.

 

Exactly! That steep trade for Archer isn't just for Archer. That trade gets you get Archer AND a Darvish or Arrieta.

 

That is huge.

 

It's really the same concept as Yelich and Cain.

 

 

Are you insinuating we'd now have more money to spend on the free agent pitcher or the free agent would be more willing to sign? I guess I thought the Yelich / Cain timing was more on our end... Did the Yelich trade sort of talk Cain into signing?

 

I guess I'm not catching how a trade would necessarily be connected to signing a FA deal.

[anglotiger]

Exactly! That steep trade for Archer isn't just for Archer. That trade gets you get Archer AND a Darvish or Arrieta.

 

Wait - where did that come from? Darvish or Arrieta? Is there something that I missed? If the Brewers managed that too, then it would certainly make people forget about the steep price for Archer, but is that just wishful thinking on your part or do you have more information...?

[3and2Fastball]

If we get Archer plus Darvish or Arrieta I'm gonna want season tickets.

[JoeCoolMan24]

 

I guess I'm not catching how a trade would necessarily be connected to signing a FA deal.

 

The idea is that acquiring someone like Archer gets you a front line starter for a back-end starter cost.

 

Within your payroll, you can fit in Archer + Darvish/Arrieta/Cobb

 

Or you can get JUST Darvish/Arrieta/Cobb, and then still have to spend on a cheaper arm like maybe Lance Lynn.

 

Would you rather have Archer and Darvish, or Darvish and Lynn?

 

Obviously it's not that cut and dry, but Archer is able to be added without incurring really much of anything to your payroll, especially in 2018 when he will make only $6.2M. That still leaves room to add another big arm like Darvish or Arrieta, or maybe a 2nd tier like Cobb. Versus signing one of those top 2 guys and not having much left over for anyone or anything else.

[JoeCoolMan24]

Exactly! That steep trade for Archer isn't just for Archer. That trade gets you get Archer AND a Darvish or Arrieta.

 

Wait - where did that come from? Darvish or Arrieta? Is there something that I missed? If the Brewers managed that too, then it would certainly make people forget about the steep price for Archer, but is that just wishful thinking on your part or do you have more information...?

 

He just means that acquiring Archer wouldn't prohibit them from still going after Darvish or Arrieta, because Archer doesn't cost much financially.

 

Plus, it obviously makes the team more attractive if you had a frontline starter to it. May also take pressure of a newly acquired FA to live up to the contract if he is not THE guy in the rotation, but is 1A or 1B.

[HighHeat19]

Sounds about right from a pitcher with 4 years of cheap CHEAP control left. That's honestly a huge factor people probably don't consider. You got a guy making less than $9M AAV over the next 4 years to be a potential all-star all 4 years. That would cost you $25M+ a year on the open market. You are talking $70M or so in surplus value. That $70M can do a lot for a franchise. That could easily be adding Cobb right there.

 

Exactly! That steep trade for Archer isn't just for Archer. That trade gets you get Archer AND a Darvish or Arrieta.

 

That is huge.

 

It's really the same concept as Yelich and Cain.

 

 

Are you insinuating we'd now have more money to spend on the free agent pitcher or the free agent would be more willing to sign? I guess I thought the Yelich / Cain timing was more on our end... Did the Yelich trade sort of talk Cain into signing?

 

I guess I'm not catching how a trade would necessarily be connected to signing a FA deal.

 

The trade first would be ideal, then acquiring the FA. A free agent will be more likely to sign because a team has shown improvement. Also, a trade has just taken up 1 need. Meaning that there is now one less job opening for the remaining FA pitchers. Decreasing the cost of your FA pitcher if you decide to go that route as well.

 

Also remember that the issue in MLB is the lack of great pitching from the fans and owners perspective which increases demand. Let's look at it from the player's perspective. What is demand from players perspective that is short of. To me......that is finding teams who are really trying to win. There are more teams who are rebuilding and a few who want to just make a profit and that's all. The acquisitions of Yelich and Cain are more valuable now than just what they can do on the field. This drive to win could tip a player to Milwaukee who would normally sign elsewhere just because there is a shortage of teams who want to win, just like there is a shortage of TOR pitching.

[anglotiger]

Would you rather have Archer and Darvish, or Darvish and Lynn?

 

But that's not really a fair comparison, is it?

 

Given the amount reportedly requested for Archer, wouldn't it be:

 

Archer and Darvish or Darvish, Lynn, Santana (or whatever Santana brings in a trade with someone else), Phillips, Burnes and Peralta?

 

It doesn't sound quite as good when you look at it that way, does it?

[paul253]

Honestly at this point I’d be content with just signing Arrieta and rolling with what you’ve got. It gives us a punchers chance with a decent rotation and a quality offense while allowing us to hold onto our top prospects, many of whom will be ready in the next year or two. If we’re goig to give up three more top prospects for Archer it’ll set the farm back a good three to four years, particularly if those prospects are pitchers. It’s taken us a longtime to develop pitching prospects as quality as Burnes, Ortiz and Woodruff. I’d hate to have to start all over.