What's Next

[bill hAll Star]

If it's for Odorizzi, Aguilar could be a piece to that puzzle. Currently the Rays don't have much for a DH, maybe Dickerson. Their 1b is also a LH hitter and he kinda sucks. At worst, Aguilar could start all games against lefties for them and get some time against righties as both DH and 1b.

 

Aguilar + Broxton + Houser for Odorizzi. Then trade Santana to the Red Sox for prospects(Groome+)...use your prospects at the deadline to get a high end pitcher if needed. I'm sure we could get decent packages from other teams for Santana, it's just hard to want to deal with any other GM when Dombrowski is out there.

 

I think that's a light package for Odorizzi. He's still a solid MLB pitcher even with some recent injuries/not great years whereas Aguilar and Broxton are still guys that teams know we may have to DFA/option since demand isn't that high.

 

Flip it around - would you take some team's 4th or 5th OF and platoon 2B + one lower ceiling prospect for Davies?

 

Slightly different arbitration situations, but you get the idea.

 

Look how Odorizzi is trending, and in a pitcher friendly environment. The ERA didn't look terrible but look at FIP, bb rate, hr/fb rate, LD rate, hard contact rate, and then his absurdly unsustainable BABIP on the year. If he had posted an upper 3's or lower 4s ERA with those other measures remaining more consistent with 2015-2016 levels...completely different conversation. Maybe then it's Broxton, Aguilar, Ortiz for Odorizzi. The reality on Odorizzi, he was closer to a 5 ERA pitcher than 2015-16 Odorizzi...he was extremely lucky from a results standpoint given the trends noted above. After looking at him further, I'm not sure I'd want Odorizzi and would be more inclined to take my chances on Woodruff.

 

Ortiz would make it closer to realistic.

 

They have minimal use for Broxton there. Souza will play everyday. Kiermaier will most, you've got Dickerson who will play some OF, Mallex Smith, while not a true RH platoon guy, still plays plenty in the RH platoon side, and you have Span who will get a few spot starts.

 

Guys like Aguilar and Broxton I would imagine - most teams are more willing to go to the waiver wire and pay 1 year, $600k for slightly less of a player.

 

You don't trade something for Jesus Aguilar, you just go and pay a cheap deal for Chris Carter, Mark Reynolds, or you scrape deeper for someone like Brett Eibner who is not bad against lefties if given a longer leash.

 

It takes a specific team looking for a specific thing when Aguilar truly brings value in a trade. There are a lot of teams that are just willing to live with trying out 8 different guys that have had a taste of the MLB with moderate success in the past and see if you can get one to produce close to Aguilar - that's the position that Aguilar was in before this season with the Brewers.

[KeithStone53151]

Ortiz would make it closer to realistic.

 

They have minimal use for Broxton there. Souza will play everyday. Kiermaier will most, you've got Dickerson who will play some OF, Mallex Smith, while not a true RH platoon guy, still plays plenty in the RH platoon side, and you have Span who will get a few spot starts.

 

Guys like Aguilar and Broxton I would imagine - most teams are more willing to go to the waiver wire and pay 1 year, $600k for slightly less of a player.

 

You don't trade something for Jesus Aguilar, you just go and pay a cheap deal for Chris Carter, Mark Reynolds, or you scrape deeper for someone like Brett Eibner who is not bad against lefties if given a longer leash.

 

It takes a specific team looking for a specific thing when Aguilar truly brings value in a trade. There are a lot of teams that are just willing to live with trying out 8 different guys that have had a taste of the MLB with moderate success in the past and see if you can get one to produce close to Aguilar - that's the position that Aguilar was in before this season with the Brewers.

 

I agree they have a glut of outfielders, so Broxton may not fit there. Many of those are LH and not all that good, replacing smith with Broxton is an upgrade on both sides of the ball...but I could understand if they wanted to roll with their current OF.

 

As far as Aguilar, he got his first real taste of MLB last year, he had a career like 60 atbats over 3 years up until 2017. The guys you mentioned are getting older and worse, and haven't been nearly as good as Aguilar. They will also be more expensive, even if they are kept after a minor league deal they'll surely get more than $600k. I'm not trying to say Aguilar would be the centerpiece to an Odorizzi deal, I'm saying Odorizzi's value isn't as high as most seem to think and Aguilar absolutely has some value. It's completely illogical for a contending team with a hole at DH/1b to not want to give a small piece of the farm and instead opt to pay an old aging vet $2-3 million to put up 100-200 lower OPS than Aguilar. The Rays could be a contending team, but you could widen the range and see that Aguilar could be of value to quite a few AL teams.

[Boomer5]

Aguilar and Broxton are final piece throw ins and in no possible way are they guys that would matter in a trade for a quality SP.

[fondybrewfan]

If Chase Anderson is our opening day starter I will be disappointed big time. To substantially improve the OF and not address the far bigger question mark of the rotation would be inexplicable. Hopefully Stearns eventually gets some sort of upgrade one way or another.

[DR28]

HighHeat... Any update on the meeting?

[Madhawk23]

I think the Yelich trade broke right around 5:00 last Thursday night. I wouldn't mind getting reports on another big move or two at 5:00 this Thursday night as well. C'mon slingin Stearns!

[KeithStone53151]

I think the Yelich trade broke right around 5:00 last Thursday night. I wouldn't mind getting reports on another big move or two at 5:00 this Thursday night as well. C'mon slingin Stearns!

 

It's not that I don't think things are in the works, I just thing everything remains stalled until Darvish signs...and I don't think that happens in the next day or so. I'm expecting end of the weekend at the earliest before significant moves happen. I hope I'm wrong.

[Madhawk23]

I think the Yelich trade broke right around 5:00 last Thursday night. I wouldn't mind getting reports on another big move or two at 5:00 this Thursday night as well. C'mon slingin Stearns!

 

It's not that I don't think things are in the works, I just thing everything remains stalled until Darvish signs...and I don't think that happens in the next day or so. I'm expecting end of the weekend at the earliest before significant moves happen. I hope I'm wrong.

 

Unfortunately, I think you're probably right. Seemed like things might have been heating up this morning, but I feel like it's gone very quiet this afternoon. Guessing we need to wait for the Darvish domino to fall before anything significant happens.

[Boomer5]

If Chase Anderson is our opening day starter I will be disappointed big time. To substantially improve the OF and not address the far bigger question mark of the rotation would be inexplicable. Hopefully Stearns eventually gets some sort of upgrade one way or another.

 

That's not even an option. They will bring in at least one key SP if not 2.

 

Right now the moves Stearns made left a roster that is currently insane so they must make more moves. Surplus OF plus top prospects will be traded for a starter and likely one of the FA SP will come here too

[Warning Track Power]

I really believe the Brewers will make two additions to the rotation. I wouldn't want to part with any of Woodruff, Burnes or Ortiz and I think the acquisitions can be made without giving them up.

 

At this point, I don't believe there is a way to keep Braun, Santana, Phillips and Thames. There simply isn't enough ABs to do so. So I move Santana as I think Phillips is the ideal #4 OF and the idea of Braun at 1B scares me.

 

TRADE #1: Domingo Santana for Danny Salazar

 

Enough smoke has been there around conversations between the Brewers and the Rays that I believe a deal will ultimately be struck for a SP. It will be for Odorizzi and not Archer though as the cost for Archer is ridiculously high and ulitmately Stearns won't pay for it.

 

TRADE #2: Mauricio Dubon, Trey Supak & Phil Bickford for Jake Odorizzi

 

This trade is more of the depth moves that Stearns made in previous offseasons where he looked for quantity over high end quality. Additionally, Odorizzi LIKELY will not command an elite prospect given his lack of ace results and long term control. The return seems light and heavy at the same to me as a Brewer fan which means its probably about right.

 

Brewers open the season with:

Anderson

Odorizzi

Salazar

Davies

Chacin

 

Maybe not a world beating staff, but one with a substantial amount of depth. Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz are all still in the system. Suter still available. Nelson comes back and Brewers can determine at the deadline if they need an addition to the rotation.

[superfly]

I really believe the Brewers will make two additions to the rotation. I wouldn't want to part with any of Woodruff, Burnes or Ortiz and I think the acquisitions can be made without giving them up.

 

At this point, I don't believe there is a way to keep Braun, Santana, Phillips and Thames. There simply isn't enough ABs to do so. So I move Santana as I think Phillips is the ideal #4 OF and the idea of Braun at 1B scares me.

 

TRADE #1: Domingo Santana for Danny Salazar

 

Enough smoke has been there around conversations between the Brewers and the Rays that I believe a deal will ultimately be struck for a SP. It will be for Odorizzi and not Archer though as the cost for Archer is ridiculously high and ulitmately Stearns won't pay for it.

 

TRADE #2: Mauricio Dubon, Trey Supak & Phil Bickford for Jake Odorizzi

 

This trade is more of the depth moves that Stearns made in previous offseasons where he looked for quantity over high end quality. Additionally, Odorizzi LIKELY will not command an elite prospect given his lack of ace results and long term control. The return seems light and heavy at the same to me as a Brewer fan which means its probably about right.

 

Brewers open the season with:

Anderson

Odorizzi

Salazar

Davies

Chacin

 

Maybe not a world beating staff, but one with a substantial amount of depth. Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz are all still in the system. Suter still available. Nelson comes back and Brewers can determine at the deadline if they need an addition to the rotation.

 

I like the Salazar move, but hate the Odorizzi (or swap). I don't think both Salazar and Odorizzi is going to take us to where we want to go, it's just two decent pitchers. Also Odorizzi is not controlled though this supposed 4-5 year window we're entering. I would rather pay up for somebody else with better prospects.

 

And keep Bickford btw

[Boomer5]

Odorizzi was replacement level in 2017 but was 3.0 in 2016 and 3.6 in 2015.

[NOMAAM]

I'm going to predict that the Brewers trade for Jake Odorizzi after being unable to strike up a deal for Archer. It'll be something like Broxton plus Ortiz for 2 years of Odorizzi. If the Rays want Santana plus Hiura and Burnes for Archer, that is just too much...

 

So my prediction is they'll sign either:

Arrieta or Cobb

 

And trade for Odorizzi

 

my guess Salazar and Cobb/Lynn

[packer822]

as much as I was fired up when we got greinke from kc I hated we had to give up cain.....jeffress amd most of all odorizzi....I had seen him pitch 3 times in Appleton and he dominated all ...including a 1 hitter.....I would love to get him back in a brewer uniform....is he an ace....no....but he has been solid for the last 3 yrs in one of the toughest divisions in baseball....

[Swizzul]

So people still listen to what this HighHeat dude says? LOL.

 

Look, anyone can speculate like he does....and let me be clear....that's all he does. Otherwise what happened to the AL team we were going to make a trade with like 2 weeks ago? Exactly

 

I don't expect us to trade for Archer, but Odorizzi seems like he could be dealt for. I also do not think he would cost us even half what Archer would. I think we would have made a trade by now, but I think the Brewers are waiting to see whether we get Darvish or not. If we get Darvish somehow, I think that's the last big move of the offseason, but if we sign lets say Cobb, I can see the trade happening as well

[HighHeat19]

So people still listen to what this HighHeat dude says? LOL.

 

Look, anyone can speculate like he does....and let me be clear....that's all he does. Otherwise what happened to the AL team we were going to make a trade with like 2 weeks ago? Exactly

 

I don't expect us to trade for Archer, but Odorizzi seems like he could be dealt for. I also do not think he would cost us even half what Archer would. I think we would have made a trade by now, but I think the Brewers are waiting to see whether we get Darvish or not. If we get Darvish somehow, I think that's the last big move of the offseason, but if we sign lets say Cobb, I can see the trade happening as well

 

I can be quiet and not say anything going forward. I'm fine with that.

[Dadbauer]

No way Highheat, at the very least you give us something to hang our hats on and talk about.

[KeithStone53151]

So people still listen to what this HighHeat dude says? LOL.

 

Look, anyone can speculate like he does....and let me be clear....that's all he does. Otherwise what happened to the AL team we were going to make a trade with like 2 weeks ago? Exactly

 

I don't expect us to trade for Archer, but Odorizzi seems like he could be dealt for. I also do not think he would cost us even half what Archer would. I think we would have made a trade by now, but I think the Brewers are waiting to see whether we get Darvish or not. If we get Darvish somehow, I think that's the last big move of the offseason, but if we sign lets say Cobb, I can see the trade happening as well

 

I can be quiet and not say anything going forward. I'm fine with that.

 

There are definitely a couple whiners on this site that complain about everything, including you. The vast majority including myself appreciate your tidbits and notes, please keep them coming.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So people still listen to what this HighHeat dude says? LOL.

 

Look, anyone can speculate like he does....and let me be clear....that's all he does. Otherwise what happened to the AL team we were going to make a trade with like 2 weeks ago? Exactly

 

I don't expect us to trade for Archer, but Odorizzi seems like he could be dealt for. I also do not think he would cost us even half what Archer would. I think we would have made a trade by now, but I think the Brewers are waiting to see whether we get Darvish or not. If we get Darvish somehow, I think that's the last big move of the offseason, but if we sign lets say Cobb, I can see the trade happening as well

 

I was skeptical as well, but he's nailed a lot more than he's lost on, and he's been specific enough to prove to me he's in the know. Plus, it's Hot Stove season, and this adds to the fun. I know I've appreciated reading the posts.

[JCREW]

 

I can be quiet and not say anything going forward. I'm fine with that.

 

Don’t take the bait.

 

Sharing is caring.

[yoyomayoma]

Well said. Your contributions are appreciated HH.

[Bench Coach 5]

So people still listen to what this HighHeat dude says? LOL.

 

Look, anyone can speculate like he does....and let me be clear....that's all he does. Otherwise what happened to the AL team we were going to make a trade with like 2 weeks ago? Exactly

 

I don't expect us to trade for Archer, but Odorizzi seems like he could be dealt for. I also do not think he would cost us even half what Archer would. I think we would have made a trade by now, but I think the Brewers are waiting to see whether we get Darvish or not. If we get Darvish somehow, I think that's the last big move of the offseason, but if we sign lets say Cobb, I can see the trade happening as well

 

I can be quiet and not say anything going forward. I'm fine with that.

 

Some of us like what you have to say and appreciate it. There are always skeptics, and either way it makes the time go faster. Don't let the haters stop you!

[pacopete4]

So people still listen to what this HighHeat dude says? LOL.

 

Look, anyone can speculate like he does....and let me be clear....that's all he does. Otherwise what happened to the AL team we were going to make a trade with like 2 weeks ago? Exactly

 

Please. Your third post here and this is what you do?

 

HighHeat, keep it coming and don't let this foolish behavior bother you or the rest of us.

[brewmann04]

I agree it at the very least gives us a bit of excitement till Spring training

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

So people still listen to what this HighHeat dude says? LOL.

 

Look, anyone can speculate like he does....and let me be clear....that's all he does. Otherwise what happened to the AL team we were going to make a trade with like 2 weeks ago? Exactly

 

I don't expect us to trade for Archer, but Odorizzi seems like he could be dealt for. I also do not think he would cost us even half what Archer would. I think we would have made a trade by now, but I think the Brewers are waiting to see whether we get Darvish or not. If we get Darvish somehow, I think that's the last big move of the offseason, but if we sign lets say Cobb, I can see the trade happening as well

 

I can be quiet and not say anything going forward. I'm fine with that.

The vast majority of us really appreciate you.