What's Next

[Lathund]

Yeah, that is what I have seen as well. I know this account makes goofy posts a lot of the time but it does seem to be correct quite a bit when big things are occurring.

 

Well, he also just posted that according to his source, the team isn't expected to make a big free agent pitching acquisition. That would fall in stark contrast to a bunch of other sources, so we'll see.

 

But if they are looking to firm up the rotation via trade for one or two starters, the farm system is going to take a serious hit.

 

Yeah, no FA signing would be a contrast to about every other report.

 

What if Broxton was traded for Corbin and Santana for Salazar in straight up deals? Would that move the needle for people? Just taking a couple of well discussed proposals already but that would keep the payroll still flexible and keep remaining prospects.

 

Salazar

Anderson

Corbin

Davies

Chacin

 

With Nelson returning at some point and Woodfuff in case of an injury or ineffectiveness.

 

If we can't land Darvish, which if we're being honest was/is probably like a 2% chance, then I like Corbin as much as Arrieta, Lynn, or Cobb.

 

I wouldn't mind that scenario (Or similar scenarios in terms of cost) at all. There's no true TOR type of pitcher in there (yet), but I also honestly don't think one is needed. Those five guys together have a career ERA- of 93; which would have been good for 8th best rotation in the majors last year (Ironically what the Brewers had...). I mean you want even better than that, but it just shows that even a bunch of "just" above-average pitchers gets you very far. The fact that Corbin (Or someone else like Ryu) is a rental is even a positive to me; less issues when/if Nelson is back or if Burnes/Ortiz/Suter/Wilkerson/whoever absolutely kills it. If they don't there'll be trades to be made next year too.

 

Basically I'm in favour of any approach that keep the top pitching prospects here, something I think is key if we are to compete for more than just 2018 and possibly 2019. Injuries happen, regressions happen. You need 7-8 starters per season, you need depth, you need prospects to fill in when you lose starters through injury or retirement or free agency. The Yelich trade took a chunk out of the system, but so far it's just one move. There's nothing to suggest the "window" can't be a long one; Parts of the team is set for years now, but if we keep as much of the top talent on the farm as possible the internal replacements can keep things going for longer. There are no guarantees, Lutz and Hiura and the likes might be busts. But I would rather take that chance, and have the chance to be competitive for years than just bet everything on a 2-3 year window.

[3and2Fastball]

The 8th best rotation doesn't win us a World Series. Our goal is not to hang another goofy Wild Card banner. Look at what Verlander did for Houston. We need a game changer

[Warning Track Power]

I wouldn't mind that scenario (Or similar scenarios in terms of cost) at all. There's no true TOR type of pitcher in there (yet), but I also honestly don't think one is needed. Those five guys together have a career ERA- of 93; which would have been good for 8th best rotation in the majors last year (Ironically what the Brewers had...). The fact that Corbin (Or someone else like Ryu) is a rental is even a positive to me; less issues when/if Nelson is back or if Burnes/Ortiz/Suter/Wilkerson/whoever absolutely kills it. If they don't there'll be trades to be made next year too.

 

Basically I'm in favour of any approach that keep the top pitching prospects here, something I think is key if we are to compete for more than just 2018 and possibly 2019. Injuries happen, regressions happen. You need 7-8 starters per season, you need depth, you need prospects to fill in when you lose starters through injury or retirement or free agency. The Yelich trade took a chunk out of the system, but so far it's just one move. There's nothing to suggest the "window" can't be a long one; Parts of the team is set for years now, but if we keep as much of the top talent on the farm as possible the internal replacements can keep things going for longer. There are no guarantees, Lutz and Hiura and the likes might be busts. But I would rather take that chance, and have the chance to be competitive for years than just bet everything on a 2-3 year window.

The loss of prospect capital to acquire other parts is the only downfall of the Yelich deal. The acquisition of Yelich and Cain, as well as the presence of Braun, Santana and Phillips, really negated the need for Brinson and Harrison in the next 5 seasons. Additionally, the presence of Villar (possibly Walker) and the higher prospect in Hiura, made Diaz expendable. Yamamoto was maybe our 5th ranked pitching prospect. You make that deal 100% of the time unless that package could have acquired a young elite SP (Strasburg, Severino type).

 

I am on board with holding Woodruff and Burnes but would package Ortiz with Santana if it assisted in the acquisition of a #2 type pitcher (Archer).

[Lathund]

The 8th best rotation doesn't win us a World Series. Our goal is not to hang another goofy Wild Card banner. Look at what Verlander did for Houston. We need a game changer

 

I made an edit as I figured this would be the takeaway for many. Get that ERA- a further few points lower (As I think these five guys aren't being signed for their career averages but for what they are expected to do going forward) to 89 and that's a top 5 rotation. Nor is it taking into account Jimmy, nor that the prospects coming through can make it. And the point is that you don't have to have an "ace" to get to that top 5 level. It's not even a matter of not wanting an "ace", just that for what you give up for that ace you can potentially get more in return by spending the same on two #3s, or something else.

[mrn1ceguy]

The 8th best rotation doesn't win us a World Series. Our goal is not to hang another goofy Wild Card banner. Look at what Verlander did for Houston. We need a game changer

 

I made an edit as I figured this would be the takeaway for many. Get that ERA- a further few points lower (As I think these five guys aren't being signed for their career averages but for what they are expected to do going forward) to 89 and that's a top 5 rotation. Nor is it taking into account Jimmy, nor that the prospects coming through can make it. And the point is that you don't have to have an "ace" to get to that top 5 level. It's not even a matter of not wanting an "ace", just that for what you give up for that ace you can potentially get more in return by spending the same on two #3s, or something else.

 

Now I'm curious what the past few WS teams had for rotation rankings. Lets see if top ten is sufficient or do you really need top 5. Any tips in looking up this information?

 

Edit: I found rankings by WAR on baseballreference:

 

2017 Houston: #11, Dodgers #5

2016 Cubs: #2, Indians #4

2015 Royals: #21, Mets: #8

2014 Giants: #19, Royals: #11

2013 Red Sox: #17, Cardinals: #4

 

So at least according to WAR, you don't need a top 5 or even top 10 rotation to make the WS if the rest of your roster compensates (bullpen, late season addition, bats, defense, ...). Note that these rankings cover every start, not just your top five.

[Warning Track Power]

I wouldn't mind that scenario (Or similar scenarios in terms of cost) at all. There's no true TOR type of pitcher in there (yet), but I also honestly don't think one is needed. Those five guys together have a career ERA- of 93; which would have been good for 8th best rotation in the majors last year (Ironically what the Brewers had...). I mean you want even better than that, but it just shows that even a bunch of "just" above-average pitchers gets you very far. The fact that Corbin (Or someone else like Ryu) is a rental is even a positive to me; less issues when/if Nelson is back or if Burnes/Ortiz/Suter/Wilkerson/whoever absolutely kills it. If they don't there'll be trades to be made next year too.

 

Basically I'm in favour of any approach that keep the top pitching prospects here, something I think is key if we are to compete for more than just 2018 and possibly 2019. Injuries happen, regressions happen. You need 7-8 starters per season, you need depth, you need prospects to fill in when you lose starters through injury or retirement or free agency. The Yelich trade took a chunk out of the system, but so far it's just one move. There's nothing to suggest the "window" can't be a long one; Parts of the team is set for years now, but if we keep as much of the top talent on the farm as possible the internal replacements can keep things going for longer. There are no guarantees, Lutz and Hiura and the likes might be busts. But I would rather take that chance, and have the chance to be competitive for years than just bet everything on a 2-3 year window.

While I agree with you for games 1-162, in game 163 forward, I don't feel comfortable lining up anyone currently in the rotation in Game 1 and Game 5 versus Kershaw, Scherzer, etc...

[Lathund]

I wouldn't mind that scenario (Or similar scenarios in terms of cost) at all. There's no true TOR type of pitcher in there (yet), but I also honestly don't think one is needed. Those five guys together have a career ERA- of 93; which would have been good for 8th best rotation in the majors last year (Ironically what the Brewers had...). I mean you want even better than that, but it just shows that even a bunch of "just" above-average pitchers gets you very far. The fact that Corbin (Or someone else like Ryu) is a rental is even a positive to me; less issues when/if Nelson is back or if Burnes/Ortiz/Suter/Wilkerson/whoever absolutely kills it. If they don't there'll be trades to be made next year too.

 

Basically I'm in favour of any approach that keep the top pitching prospects here, something I think is key if we are to compete for more than just 2018 and possibly 2019. Injuries happen, regressions happen. You need 7-8 starters per season, you need depth, you need prospects to fill in when you lose starters through injury or retirement or free agency. The Yelich trade took a chunk out of the system, but so far it's just one move. There's nothing to suggest the "window" can't be a long one; Parts of the team is set for years now, but if we keep as much of the top talent on the farm as possible the internal replacements can keep things going for longer. There are no guarantees, Lutz and Hiura and the likes might be busts. But I would rather take that chance, and have the chance to be competitive for years than just bet everything on a 2-3 year window.

While I agree with you for games 1-162, in game 163 forward, I don't feel comfortable lining up anyone currently in the rotation in Game 1 and Game 5 versus Kershaw, Scherzer, etc...

 

Then do what the Astros did; if you indeed look like a true contender, trade for that starter at the deadline. So much can go wrong even with the best laid plans, I'd rather overpay at the deadline in a year where I know for sure we'll compete, than make the same type of all-in moves during the offseason when noone knows what the season will bring.

[KeithStone53151]

Then do what the Astros did; if you indeed look like a true contender, trade for that starter at the deadline. So much can go wrong even with the best laid plans, I'd rather overpay at the deadline in a year where I know for sure we'll compete, than make the same type of all-in moves during the offseason when noone knows what the season will bring.

 

As far as the deadline goes, any of the starters that we are being linked to could be available at the deadline with some additional added names. Archer, Duffy, Salazar, Stroman, Hamels, Manaea, Odorizzi, Teheran, etc. If offers aren't ideal, it would be a reasonable strategy to simply trade Santana for prospects, trade for Corbin or sign a lower tier FA, and then look to add the big name at the deadline.

[NievesNoNO]

The 8th best rotation doesn't win us a World Series. Our goal is not to hang another goofy Wild Card banner. Look at what Verlander did for Houston. We need a game changer

 

I won't argue with the game changer part. Verlander was acquired at the deadline and while he was great after the trade, prior to that he wasn't all that good (last year). I think there will be opportunities at the deadline this year as well if the Brewers are in position.

 

Houston also won based on a tremendous lineup and impressive roster depth. The Royals also recently won a WS without what most would consider an ace.

 

I think Salazar or Nelson could be the pitcher that could put together a dominant stretch in that scenario.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea, the Brewers will likely never have the best 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. Recent years have proven the best 1-2 punch doesn't win the WS, and often times not even make it there.

 

If you put together a really good roster, with a really solid rotation you have as good a chance as that team with the big 1-2 at the top. The ol' "hot hand" becomes very important in the playoffs. At that point it doesn't matter if a pitcher is true ace, what his ERA was all season, or what his career WAR is. He just needs to pitch every well in a couple games, and if you have a really good 1-5, you're likely to get that performance out of a couple of your pitchers.

[JCREW]

So, basically all I'm doing is scrolling to the bottom to check if HighHeat19 is online.

 

He(or she) is right now.

 

Waiting...

[Madhawk23]

Yea, the Brewers will likely never have the best 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. Recent years have proven the best 1-2 punch doesn't win the WS, and often times not even make it there.

 

If you put together a really good roster, with a really solid rotation you have as good a chance as that team with the big 1-2 at the top. The ol' "hot hand" becomes very important in the playoffs. At that point it doesn't matter if a pitcher is true ace, what his ERA was all season, or what his career WAR is. He just needs to pitch every well in a couple games, and if you have a really good 1-5, you're likely to get that performance out of a couple of your pitchers.

 

I think this is a very good point. I think most would say that Kershaw has been the best SP in the game for years now, and he's yet to get the Dodgers the championship that they've been yearning for - and that's even with a really good team around him. You need a good rotation, pen and lineup to win your division, and then in the playoffs it many times comes down to which team gets hot at the right time.

[3and2Fastball]

I just don't trust Anderson, Nelson or Chacin to "get hot" at the right time in the postseason. Such a scenario reminds me of the 2008 playoffs, and even then we had CC and a young Gallardo but got outmatched by the Phillies vaunted staff. And CC was worn out from the stretch run just to get there.

 

I realize times have changed since 10 years ago and bullpens are more important than ever before, but fortunately it appears that Stearns recognizes that our starting pitching is a weak point if we are contending, and is working to do something about it.

[tmwiese55]

And a deep rotation/team should also be what makes a team very strong in the regular season, and hopefully reducing the chances of needing that 'ace' in a one game WC playoff. Sure, it's best to have aces and depth in rotation like WAS/LAD. And then once you're in anything can happen. Of course the issue is how strong the Cubs also look the next couple years, so just kind of talking in generalities.

 

As I think all are aware, Dodgers and Nats have yet to win in spite of multiple years with their true Aces. Bumgarner shows the opposite. but I'd guess if you go back and look at all the WS teams of the last 10-15 years you're going to find several different combos of teams that pulled it off.

[3and2Fastball]

I'm going to predict that the Brewers trade for Jake Odorizzi after being unable to strike up a deal for Archer. It'll be something like Broxton plus Ortiz for 2 years of Odorizzi. If the Rays want Santana plus Hiura and Burnes for Archer, that is just too much...

 

So my prediction is they'll sign either:

Arrieta or Cobb

 

And trade for Odorizzi

[Madhawk23]

I just don't trust Anderson, Nelson or Chacin to "get hot" at the right time in the postseason. Such a scenario reminds me of the 2008 playoffs, and even then we had CC and a young Gallardo but got outmatched by the Phillies vaunted staff. And CC was worn out from the stretch run just to get there.

 

I realize times have changed since 10 years ago and bullpens are more important than ever before, but fortunately it appears that Stearns recognizes that our starting pitching is a weak point if we are contending, and is working to do something about it.

 

I would agree with this statement as well. While I think it is possible to get to the playoffs with a rotation of Anderson, Nelson (if healthy), Davies, Chacin - assuming that our lineup is better and our pen pitches great. However, I wouldn't want to take my chances (especially if we finish 2nd to the Cubs and have to play the WC game) with any of those guys leading off a series against someone else's "ace." So, I do think it is imperative that we go out and find that TOR starter - either right now or at the deadline in July.

[Brew Crew Buster]

Trading for Oddorizzi and signing Cobb sounds fine. And in this scenario you are left with two options:

 

1. Trade for an ace at the deadline.

 

2. Ortiz or Burnes becomes a Nelson or Anderson and you are in great shape for the next 4 or 5 years.

 

If you trade for Archer your options are:

 

1. Archer's stuff really is better than his 4+ ERA and you are playoff bound.

 

2. Archer isn't that great and/or gets hurt and you can't make other moves cause so many prospects are gone.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm going to predict that the Brewers trade for Jake Odorizzi after being unable to strike up a deal for Archer. It'll be something like Broxton plus Ortiz for 2 years of Odorizzi. If the Rays want Santana plus Hiura and Burnes for Archer, that is just too much...

 

So my prediction is they'll sign either:

Arrieta or Cobb

 

And trade for Odorizzi

 

If it's for Odorizzi, Aguilar could be a piece to that puzzle. Currently the Rays don't have much for a DH, maybe Dickerson. Their 1b is also a LH hitter and he kinda sucks. At worst, Aguilar could start all games against lefties for them and get some time against righties as both DH and 1b.

 

Aguilar + Broxton + Houser for Odorizzi. Then trade Santana to the Red Sox for prospects(Groome+)...use your prospects at the deadline to get a high end pitcher if needed. I'm sure we could get decent packages from other teams for Santana, it's just hard to want to deal with any other GM when Dombrowski is out there.

[3and2Fastball]

Odorizzi and Archer have almost identical ERA+ numbers over the last 3 years. I realize that stat isn't the be all and end all of pitching stats....but still

 

Also Archer's best ERA+ season was 120something, which pales in comparison to the 160 ERA+ that Chase Anderson put up last year

[tmwiese55]

Should have brought back Escobar to play 2B too when he was a FA. Get the whole Greinke package gang back together again.

[bill hAll Star]

I'm going to predict that the Brewers trade for Jake Odorizzi after being unable to strike up a deal for Archer. It'll be something like Broxton plus Ortiz for 2 years of Odorizzi. If the Rays want Santana plus Hiura and Burnes for Archer, that is just too much...

 

So my prediction is they'll sign either:

Arrieta or Cobb

 

And trade for Odorizzi

 

If it's for Odorizzi, Aguilar could be a piece to that puzzle. Currently the Rays don't have much for a DH, maybe Dickerson. Their 1b is also a LH hitter and he kinda sucks. At worst, Aguilar could start all games against lefties for them and get some time against righties as both DH and 1b.

 

Aguilar + Broxton + Houser for Odorizzi. Then trade Santana to the Red Sox for prospects(Groome+)...use your prospects at the deadline to get a high end pitcher if needed. I'm sure we could get decent packages from other teams for Santana, it's just hard to want to deal with any other GM when Dombrowski is out there.

 

I think that's a light package for Odorizzi. He's still a solid MLB pitcher even with some recent injuries/not great years whereas Aguilar and Broxton are still guys that teams know we may have to DFA/option since demand isn't that high.

 

Flip it around - would you take some team's 4th or 5th OF + a limited platoon 2B + one lower ceiling prospect for Davies?

 

Slightly different arbitration situations, but you get the idea.

[Madhawk23]

I agree - TB isn't going to take that package for Odorizzi. If Santana isn't in the deal (which I'd hope he wouldn't be for Jake), then I would guess it would take something along the lines of Broxton, Ortiz, and Dubon.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Flip it around - would you take some team's 4th or 5th OF and platoon 2B + one lower ceiling prospect for Davies?

 

Slightly different arbitration situations, but you get the idea.

 

Slightly different? Odorizzi is going into his age 28 season and has two years left of team control. Davies is going into his age 25 season, makes peanuts and has four years of control. That's a pretty big difference.

[KeithStone53151]

If it's for Odorizzi, Aguilar could be a piece to that puzzle. Currently the Rays don't have much for a DH, maybe Dickerson. Their 1b is also a LH hitter and he kinda sucks. At worst, Aguilar could start all games against lefties for them and get some time against righties as both DH and 1b.

 

Aguilar + Broxton + Houser for Odorizzi. Then trade Santana to the Red Sox for prospects(Groome+)...use your prospects at the deadline to get a high end pitcher if needed. I'm sure we could get decent packages from other teams for Santana, it's just hard to want to deal with any other GM when Dombrowski is out there.

 

I think that's a light package for Odorizzi. He's still a solid MLB pitcher even with some recent injuries/not great years whereas Aguilar and Broxton are still guys that teams know we may have to DFA/option since demand isn't that high.

 

Flip it around - would you take some team's 4th or 5th OF and platoon 2B + one lower ceiling prospect for Davies?

 

Slightly different arbitration situations, but you get the idea.

 

Look how Odorizzi is trending, and in a pitcher friendly environment. The ERA didn't look terrible but look at FIP, bb rate, hr/fb rate, LD rate, hard contact rate, and then his absurdly unsustainable BABIP on the year. If he had posted an upper 3's or lower 4s ERA with those other measures remaining more consistent with 2015-2016 levels...completely different conversation. Maybe then it's Broxton, Aguilar, Ortiz for Odorizzi. The reality on Odorizzi, he was closer to a 5 ERA pitcher than 2015-16 Odorizzi...he was extremely lucky from a results standpoint given the trends noted above. After looking at him further, I'm not sure I'd want Odorizzi and would be more inclined to take my chances on Woodruff.

[bill hAll Star]

Flip it around - would you take some team's 4th or 5th OF and platoon 2B + one lower ceiling prospect for Davies?

 

Slightly different arbitration situations, but you get the idea.

 

Slightly different? Odorizzi is going into his age 28 season and has two years left of team control. Davies is going into his age 25 season, makes peanuts and has four years of control. That's a pretty big difference.

 

And the trade still isn't even close.

 

There's been a debate as to whether the Rays would tear it down (meaning they wouldn't want Santana in any trade) or not, but let's imagine that they're still gonna be competitive.

 

Does a RH platoon hitter and an OF that (probably doesn't make sense with Mallex Smith) won't play a ton really move the needle? Doesn't help long-term rebuild either, really.