What's Next

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

Hot Take

If we get a TOR through FA signing or Santana trade package- consider us title contenders…in fact, why not both?

 

We will need more than that to be title contenders. I am hoping for playoffs.

 

If you get to the playoffs, you have a shot. This isn’t the NBA.

[KeithStone53151]

Hot Take

If we get a TOR through FA signing or Santana trade package- consider us title contenders…in fact, why not both?

 

Depending on what pitcher we get, we probably project to be significantly worse than the Cubs. I tend to somewhat agree...on paper we are slightly worse, but projection systems(and WAR) are complete garbage on their own and should be mostly ignored. We are definitely within range of overtaking the Cubs this year with the right pitcher. Not the favorites no matter what pitcher we get, but it's not a pipe dream like last season was...somewhere in the middle.

[bill hAll Star]

Hot Take

If we get a TOR through FA signing or Santana trade package- consider us title contenders…in fact, why not both?

 

Depending on what pitcher we get, we probably project to be significantly worse than the Cubs. I tend to somewhat agree...on paper we are slightly worse, but projection systems(and WAR) are complete garbage on their own and should be mostly ignored. We are definitely within range of overtaking the Cubs this year with the right pitcher. Not the favorites no matter what pitcher we get, but it's not a pipe dream like last season was...somewhere in the middle.

 

Projection systems are pretty good. They're probably wrong about the Brewers. Doesn't mean you have to throw the baby out with the bathwater. I like the systems and then can use my own opinion to maybe find a few places where the computer projections are wrong about a team or player. I'd rather have them than not have them. If it means some person really is locked in on the idea that the Brewers are still a 77 win team, so be it.

[wallus]

Hot Take

If we get a TOR through FA signing or Santana trade package- consider us title contenders…in fact, why not both?

 

We will need more than that to be title contenders. I am hoping for playoffs.

 

If you get to the playoffs, you have a shot. This isn’t the NBA.

 

Well yeah because there are less teams that make the playoffs in MLB.

[KeithStone53151]

Hot Take

If we get a TOR through FA signing or Santana trade package- consider us title contenders…in fact, why not both?

 

Depending on what pitcher we get, we probably project to be significantly worse than the Cubs. I tend to somewhat agree...on paper we are slightly worse, but projection systems(and WAR) are complete garbage on their own and should be mostly ignored. We are definitely within range of overtaking the Cubs this year with the right pitcher. Not the favorites no matter what pitcher we get, but it's not a pipe dream like last season was...somewhere in the middle.

 

Projection systems are pretty good. They're probably wrong about the Brewers. Doesn't mean you have to throw the baby out with the bathwater. I like the systems and then can use my own opinion to maybe find a few places where the computer projections are wrong about a team or player. I'd rather have them than not have them. If it means some person really is locked in on the idea that the Brewers are still a 77 win team, so be it.

 

They tend to be ok for established, consistent players...but how many guys are like that. They also are terrible at projecting young players improving, old players regressing, and guys hitting peak years. I mean it's something I guess, but unless guys are established and relatively consistent...the numbers aren't worth much. And as far as WAR, everyone knows defense is wildly overvalued. Look no further than when Carlos Gomez was posting crazy WAR numbers in 2013 and 2014. Was he really one of the most valuable players in the league? Reality says he was very above average but by no means a superstar that WAR claimed he was.

[Crash2303]

Darvish

young-cost controlled TOR (via santana package)

Anderson (proving 2016 was the real thing)

Nelson (comes back by All-Star break)

Hader (demonstrates ace like ability as a starter)

 

Davies/Chacin/Woodruff filling in for Nelson (or if any above falter)

 

that would be one of the better rotations in baseball along with our new, balanced lineup, and good defense- def. a series contender

[Crash2303]

No idea what value GMs have for Santana, but after seeing how much Yelich was traded for, I would have to think a somewhat comparable package at least value-wise would be on the table for Domingo. He’s a year younger and hasn’t even hit his hitting prime yet. Although his defense is subpar, Yelich’s WAR will equalize moving to RF and Santana is going to be a monster hitter. A deal based around Santana and pitching prospects, should be able to net us a young, cost-controlled TOR.

 

Below is a list of guys I targeted who've performed at TOR-like level the past two years, who are under 30, under contract for at least 3 more years on either rookie scale contracts or team-friendly contracts, with a particular target at rebuilding teams.

Obviously different teams have different positional needs/interests, and some of these guys have been discussed here- but are any of them guys we should target?

 

Michael Fulmer – 24 years old – DET – 5 more years

Underwent UCL surgery this year, so could come at a discount. With V-Mart & Miggy aging not well and injured- they will be looking for young, power. Santana would be very attractive to them. I’d think Fulmer & lottery ticket for Santana and Woodruff could get the deal done.

 

Jacob DeGrom- 29 years old – NYM – 3 more years

No idea what the mets would be interested in, because I have no idea if they’re rebuilding or trying to be a contender next year. If they’re going for it again, deGrom probably not an option. Also- they’re set on corner outfielders so it wouldn’t be based around Santana for sure.

 

Noah Syndergaard- 25 years old – NYM – 4 more years

See above

 

Jon Gray – 25 years old – Col – 4 more years

Dangerous trading to our Wild Car nemesis. But, Colorado is going to need to replace some power in the outfield and 1B. Maybe a Thames/Santana package could entice them.

 

Chris Archer – 29 years old – TB - 4 more years

Although they turned down a Brinson package, TB is going to have an opening at 1B and DH and are always on the lookout for prospects. Maybe something like Santana, Thames or Aguilar, Woodruff, Peralta

 

Aaron Nola – 24 years old – Phil – 4 or 5 more years

Phillies are on the rebuild and want young, controllable talent- in which we have aplenty. A nice young outfielder like Broxton and a couple young prospects like Peralta & Ponce might get the job done.

 

Marcus Stroman -26 years old – TOR – 3 more years

Outside of Donaldson & Smoak they don’t have any hitters. Santana, Woodruff and a prospect might do the trick

 

James Paxton- 28 years old - SEA - 3 more years

Paxton is the new Mariner ace, and as they look to be competitive this year, it would take current pieces to pull him away. But, as they’re weak at LF (Gamel) & 1B (Healy), maybe Santana, Thames, Davies

 

Danny Salazar- 28 years old – CLE- 3 more years

Been discussed much recently

[bill hAll Star]

They tend to be ok for established, consistent players...but how many guys are like that. They also are terrible at projecting young players improving, old players regressing, and guys hitting peak years. I mean it's something I guess, but unless guys are established and relatively consistent...the numbers aren't worth much. And as far as WAR, everyone knows defense is wildly overvalued. Look no further than when Carlos Gomez was posting crazy WAR numbers in 2013 and 2014. Was he really one of the most valuable players in the league? Reality says he was very above average but by no means a superstar that WAR claimed he was.

 

It's not entirely far-fetched. Look at what a dominant, healthy Byron Buxton does to the Twins W/L record when he's roaming CF. The ERA of their pitchers dropped drastically.

 

Maybe not in those Gomez years. Maybe he was a bit overrated. It's not perfect, but it's something that is at least a decent source of projections.

[bill hAll Star]

No idea what value GMs have for Santana, but after seeing how much Yelich was traded for, I would have to think a somewhat comparable package at least value-wise would be on the table for Domingo. He’s a year younger and hasn’t even hit his hitting prime yet. Although his defense is subpar, Yelich’s WAR will equalize moving to RF and Santana is going to be a monster hitter. A deal based around Santana and pitching prospects, should be able to net us a young, cost-controlled TOR.

 

Below is a list of guys I targeted who've performed at TOR-like level the past two years, who are under 30, under contract for at least 3 more years on either rookie scale contracts or team-friendly contracts, with a particular target at rebuilding teams.

Obviously different teams have different positional needs/interests, and some of these guys have been discussed here- but are any of them guys we should target?

 

Michael Fulmer – 24 years old – DET – 5 more years

Underwent UCL surgery this year, so could come at a discount. With V-Mart & Miggy aging not well and injured- they will be looking for young, power. Santana would be very attractive to them. I’d think Fulmer & lottery ticket for Santana and Woodruff could get the deal done.

 

Jacob DeGrom- 29 years old – NYM – 3 more years

No idea what the mets would be interested in, because I have no idea if they’re rebuilding or trying to be a contender next year. If they’re going for it again, deGrom probably not an option. Also- they’re set on corner outfielders so it wouldn’t be based around Santana for sure.

 

Noah Syndergaard- 25 years old – NYM – 4 more years

See above

 

Jon Gray – 25 years old – Col – 4 more years

Dangerous trading to our Wild Car nemesis. But, Colorado is going to need to replace some power in the outfield and 1B. Maybe a Thames/Santana package could entice them.

 

Chris Archer – 29 years old – TB - 4 more years

Although they turned down a Brinson package, TB is going to have an opening at 1B and DH and are always on the lookout for prospects. Maybe something like Santana, Thames or Aguilar, Woodruff, Peralta

 

Aaron Nola – 24 years old – Phil – 4 or 5 more years

Phillies are on the rebuild and want young, controllable talent- in which we have aplenty. A nice young outfielder like Broxton and a couple young prospects like Peralta & Ponce might get the job done.

 

Marcus Stroman -26 years old – TOR – 3 more years

Outside of Donaldson & Smoak they don’t have any hitters. Santana, Woodruff and a prospect might do the trick

 

James Paxton- 28 years old - SEA - 3 more years

Paxton is the new Mariner ace, and as they look to be competitive this year, it would take current pieces to pull him away. But, as they’re weak at LF (Gamel) & 1B (Healy), maybe Santana, Thames, Davies

 

Danny Salazar- 28 years old – CLE- 3 more years

Been discussed much recently

 

Healy is at least supposed to be a better hitter than he showed last year. Gamel was a lucky BABIP guy, but he still deserves a spot there. I guess they could still upgrade at either of those spots, but you're kinda robbing Peter to pay Paul in a competitive team scenario trading Paxton.

 

I don't think Colorado needs 1B/OF, either. They've got Desmond, Parra, Tapia, Dahl, Blackmon, and McMahon may be taking over for Desmond at 1B if that isn't working out.

 

I'm not sure the Tigers can be enticed at all to trade for Santana. They're still 2-3 years away.

 

List looks pretty good, otherwise.

[benji]

I thought Fullmer had a ulnar nerve transposition? A UCL is a big difference.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[StearnsFTW]

I thought Fullmer had a ulnar nerve transposition? A UCL is a big difference.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

You are correct.

[rht]

No idea what value GMs have for Santana, but after seeing how much Yelich was traded for, I would have to think a somewhat comparable package at least value-wise would be on the table for Domingo. He’s a year younger and hasn’t even hit his hitting prime yet. Although his defense is subpar, Yelich’s WAR will equalize moving to RF and Santana is going to be a monster hitter. A deal based around Santana and pitching prospects, should be able to net us a young, cost-controlled TOR.

 

Below is a list of guys I targeted who've performed at TOR-like level the past two years, who are under 30, under contract for at least 3 more years on either rookie scale contracts or team-friendly contracts, with a particular target at rebuilding teams.

Obviously different teams have different positional needs/interests, and some of these guys have been discussed here- but are any of them guys we should target?

 

Michael Fulmer – 24 years old – DET – 5 more years

Underwent UCL surgery this year, so could come at a discount. With V-Mart & Miggy aging not well and injured- they will be looking for young, power. Santana would be very attractive to them. I’d think Fulmer & lottery ticket for Santana and Woodruff could get the deal done.

 

Jacob DeGrom- 29 years old – NYM – 3 more years

No idea what the mets would be interested in, because I have no idea if they’re rebuilding or trying to be a contender next year. If they’re going for it again, deGrom probably not an option. Also- they’re set on corner outfielders so it wouldn’t be based around Santana for sure.

 

Noah Syndergaard- 25 years old – NYM – 4 more years

See above

 

Jon Gray – 25 years old – Col – 4 more years

Dangerous trading to our Wild Car nemesis. But, Colorado is going to need to replace some power in the outfield and 1B. Maybe a Thames/Santana package could entice them.

 

Chris Archer – 29 years old – TB - 4 more years

Although they turned down a Brinson package, TB is going to have an opening at 1B and DH and are always on the lookout for prospects. Maybe something like Santana, Thames or Aguilar, Woodruff, Peralta

 

Aaron Nola – 24 years old – Phil – 4 or 5 more years

Phillies are on the rebuild and want young, controllable talent- in which we have aplenty. A nice young outfielder like Broxton and a couple young prospects like Peralta & Ponce might get the job done.

 

Marcus Stroman -26 years old – TOR – 3 more years

Outside of Donaldson & Smoak they don’t have any hitters. Santana, Woodruff and a prospect might do the trick

 

James Paxton- 28 years old - SEA - 3 more years

Paxton is the new Mariner ace, and as they look to be competitive this year, it would take current pieces to pull him away. But, as they’re weak at LF (Gamel) & 1B (Healy), maybe Santana, Thames, Davies

 

Danny Salazar- 28 years old – CLE- 3 more years

Been discussed much recently

 

Good List, I'd add two more guys:

 

Robbie Ray - 3 years control

Mike Clevinger - 5 years control

 

I wonder if packaging Domingo with one of our other starters would open discussions with these guys? Domingo and Davies or Woodruff package offered for either of these guys, both teams seem to have some decent SP depth. They would drop off on SP pitching but gain in the OF.

 

Ray/Clevinger

Anderson

Nelson

Chacin

Woodruff/Davies

Suter

[TURBO]

Please, let's hang onto Peralta. Diaz and Harrison are a big enough hit, adding him to that "gone" list might damn near kill me.

[danzig6767]

No idea what value GMs have for Santana, but after seeing how much Yelich was traded for, I would have to think a somewhat comparable package at least value-wise would be on the table for Domingo. He’s a year younger and hasn’t even hit his hitting prime yet. Although his defense is subpar, Yelich’s WAR will equalize moving to RF and Santana is going to be a monster hitter. A deal based around Santana and pitching prospects, should be able to net us a young, cost-controlled TOR.

 

Below is a list of guys I targeted who've performed at TOR-like level the past two years, who are under 30, under contract for at least 3 more years on either rookie scale contracts or team-friendly contracts, with a particular target at rebuilding teams.

Obviously different teams have different positional needs/interests, and some of these guys have been discussed here- but are any of them guys we should target?

 

 

Jon Gray – 25 years old – Col – 4 more years

Dangerous trading to our Wild Car nemesis. But, Colorado is going to need to replace some power in the outfield and 1B. Maybe a Thames/Santana package could entice them.

 

Chris Archer – 29 years old – TB - 4 more years

Although they turned down a Brinson package, TB is going to have an opening at 1B and DH and are always on the lookout for prospects. Maybe something like Santana, Thames or Aguilar, Woodruff, Peralta

 

Aaron Nola – 24 years old – Phil – 4 or 5 more years

Phillies are on the rebuild and want young, controllable talent- in which we have aplenty. A nice young outfielder like Broxton and a couple young prospects like Peralta & Ponce might get the job done.

 

Marcus Stroman -26 years old – TOR – 3 more years

Outside of Donaldson & Smoak they don’t have any hitters. Santana, Woodruff and a prospect might do the trick

 

James Paxton- 28 years old - SEA - 3 more years

Paxton is the new Mariner ace, and as they look to be competitive this year, it would take current pieces to pull him away. But, as they’re weak at LF (Gamel) & 1B (Healy), maybe Santana, Thames, Davies

 

Colorado isn't trading Gray and certainly not for Santana and Thames.

 

Tampa isn't trading Archer for a package like that.

 

Philly signed Carlos Santana, so they no longer look to be rebuilding and they would hang up in two seconds if we only offered Broxton and a couple young prospects like Peralta & Ponce for Nola.

 

Toronto isn't trading Stroman this year and would be insulted if we only offered Santana, Woodruff and a prospect unless that prospect was Burnes.

 

Seattle also hangs up in a blink if we only offered Santana, Thames, Davies for Paxton, who they wouldn't trade anyways. They can't be competitive by trading away their best starter..

 

Imagine we had any of those pitchers and were offered these type of deals, Stearns would get crushed for accepting any of them. Young/cost controlled quality starters are the most valuable commodities in baseball.

[trwi7]

Aaron Nola – 24 years old – Phil – 4 or 5 more years

Phillies are on the rebuild and want young, controllable talent- in which we have aplenty. A nice young outfielder like Broxton and a couple young prospects like Peralta & Ponce might get the job done.

 

Broxton is 3 years older than Nola. Ponce is less than a year younger. Everyone of the packages is completely unrealistic but this is by far the worst.

[Mudville9]

I would add Sean Manaea to that list as well. It worked with K. Davis...sort of.

[Crash2303]

[Everyone of the packages is completely unrealistic but this is by far the worst.

 

This list was more just a compilation of young,proven, cost-controlled pitchers by the criteria I tried to lay out in one post to get a look at who is actually out there and if the brewers had assets that made sense to get them as that is what I believe they hope to bring back from a Santana based trade. Thanks to those who added others too- great suggestions. The trade ideas below them are intended as starting points for discussion and are not actual trade proposals.

[Oldcity]

Teams with these premium young pitchers aren't going to want fringe guys like Aguilar, Thames, Broxton, etc. Would you want someone like that if the Brewers were dealing Nelson (before injury)?

[brewcrewdue80]

Can you also add the current state of the Cubs rotation for comparison? Just to see how high these projections are.

Would love to, but they happen to be one of like 5 teams that ZiPS hasn't been released for yet.

 

Okay Great. Thanks. Look forward to whenever that happens.

 

BillHall:

Projection systems are pretty good. They're probably wrong about the Brewers. Doesn't mean you have to throw the baby out with the bathwater. I like the systems and then can use my own opinion to maybe find a few places where the computer projections are wrong about a team or player. I'd rather have them than not have them. If it means some person really is locked in on the idea that the Brewers are still a 77 win team, so be it.

 

KeithStone:

They tend to be ok for established, consistent players...but how many guys are like that. They also are terrible at projecting young players improving, old players regressing, and guys hitting peak years. I mean it's something I guess, but unless guys are established and relatively consistent...the numbers aren't worth much.

 

I can agree on both sides to this. Some projections give you an idea what a Newer player may be like. They are often wrong,(typically PA/Games played) but you can then come up with your own sorta projection with say 50 more games played or something like that.

 

 

Keith I can get a wth are they thinking when projections really disrespect ideas that I have for that player. A Guy like Woodruff who at this time, I fully expect to have 32 Games started on the season. I'll just guess the projections have him for maybe 11-14 starts for the season. And it's the same with older players. They'll be 3WAR types that projection's remove 1WAR to them and about 25 games expectation less than say 152 games.

 

It'd be so great if you just tell so or so FA this is your projection for next season and 5 years of that is worth X dollars. I mean, I think last season Braun after a 3.8BWAR season was projected for just 1.8 last year. I mean they just ignored the most recent season or career avg and set him at such a low value. I'm sure it's something like 1.4 this year. They just ought to be a little more positive vs the negative. It's almost like in their computing they put a formula in to account for 10% injury lost playing time and a 10% hit on stats due to injury.

[mlloyd10]

Nola would cost us our remaining top 100 prospects

[brewmann04]

I happy we kept our top pitching prospects and can't see him moving any of them at this point.

[TJseven7]

Conspiracy theory time:

 

Santana is dealt but not for a household name like stroman or archer. If that was the case we'd announce it now and go into fanfest screaming YELICH CAIN ARCHER.

 

But casual fan knows Santana was our best bat last year. Casual fan loves the hrs. Casual fan doesn't know salazar or high level prospect types. So that waits til after fan fest.

 

That is all.

[splitterpfj]

Conspiracy theory time:

 

Santana is dealt but not for a household name like stroman or archer. If that was the case we'd announce it now and go into fanfest screaming YELICH CAIN ARCHER.

 

But casual fan knows Santana was our best bat last year. Casual fan loves the hrs. Casual fan doesn't know salazar or high level prospect types. So that waits til after fan fest.

 

That is all.

 

Very nice.

[pacopete4]

Conspiracy theory time:

 

Santana is dealt but not for a household name like stroman or archer. If that was the case we'd announce it now and go into fanfest screaming YELICH CAIN ARCHER.

 

But casual fan knows Santana was our best bat last year. Casual fan loves the hrs. Casual fan doesn't know salazar or high level prospect types. So that waits til after fan fest.

 

That is all.

 

Very nice.

 

I think most of the fan base want to see the next move. They want Santana to turn into a pitcher. It’s the big way this team transforms into a real contender.

[3and2Fastball]

We are not going to be able to low ball our way into pitching. It is gonna take Santana + a pitching prospect (hopefully not Burnes) to get an Archer or Stroman or Salazar.... Plus maybe one more lottery pick type prospect.