Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto

[MadScientist]

Yelich is amazing and it was a great trade for the Brewers. But if all 4 of those guys become above average players, what is better, one cheapish All Star or 4 super cheap MLB starting caliber players?

 

If you are trying to win a championship, go for the All-Star.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yelich is amazing and it was a great trade for the Brewers. But if all 4 of those guys become above average players, what is better, one cheapish All Star or 4 super cheap MLB starting caliber players?

 

Starting caliber players are imminently replaceable. MVP-caliber ones typically are not. Yeah, the Brewers seemingly gave up good value. They got back incredible value.

 

Still, it appears that all 4 of these guys stand a chance of being at least MLB regulars. That is pretty rare in a quantity for quality deal like this. Kudos to the Marlins for identifying four possible/likely future contributors for a guy they needed to deal. Kudos, too, to the Brewers for having a solid and deep enough system to be able to make this deal. Makes both teams look good.

 

Im not taking one side or the other on the trade but to say starting caliber players are replaceable is not true. Just look at some of the well below replacement level crap we've run out there over the years. And superstars mean next to nothing in baseball if there aren't quality players and depth to surround them with.

 

Perhaps this is correct if the goal isn't to be competitive. But there are always starting role player types available if a contending team is willing to pay for them.

[xisxisxis]

I wonder what the Mariners fans reaction was to the Lind trade after Freddy's first game and now? I would guess, a lot of gnashing of teeth and we 'lost big' after the first start and probably not so much now.

 

It's hard to judge these things at this point. Who knows where any of the 4 will end up. Based on his play in the majors, to date, Brinson is a failure. He may end up being the only one of the 3 to have long-term success.

 

I still think it was a good trade for both teams. The Marlins maximized their return for a player they didn't have the resources to build around and the Marlins got several upside players.

 

It's quite possible Yelich puts up 40 fWAR as a Brewer. I doubt those 4 match that, but who knows.

[homer]

Yelich is amazing and it was a great trade for the Brewers. But if all 4 of those guys become above average players, what is better, one cheapish All Star or 4 super cheap MLB starting caliber players?

 

Probably a wash

[MrTPlush]

Yelich is amazing and it was a great trade for the Brewers. But if all 4 of those guys become above average players, what is better, one cheapish All Star or 4 super cheap MLB starting caliber players?

 

Hard to compare the two. We didn't trade 4 above average players for Yelich. We traded 4 guys with zero value in the near future that were prospects.

 

We traded away stock essentially. The Marlins bought it hoping their risk would pay off as a big healthy positive investment down the road.

[sveumrules]

Yelich put up 7.5 WAR last year & is on pace for another 10.5 WAR this year. Add even another conservative 22 WAR for the remaining three years & you're looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 WAR as a starting point for Yelich & very likely more by the time he is done with his current contract.

 

I'll take the under on Brinson/Harrison/Diaz/Yamamoto producing 40 WAR combined during their years of team control with the Marlins.

[jerichoholicninja]

Yelich is amazing and it was a great trade for the Brewers. But if all 4 of those guys become above average players, what is better, one cheapish All Star or 4 super cheap MLB starting caliber players?

 

If you are trying to win a championship, go for the All-Star.

 

One superstar doesn't win you a championship in baseball. The Brewers only made the playoffs twice with 2 superstars with Braun and Fielder.

[Thurston Fluff]

The Marlins are far better off with some young talent because Yelich wasn't going to matter a hill of beans for their playoff hopes in the next couple seasons. The Brewers had a lot of young talent that could have helped build a good solid core down the road but weren't going to be the bona fide all star they needed now. Each team gave what they had but couldn't use for what they needed but didn't have. How is that a loss for either team?

[wallus]

Yelich is amazing and it was a great trade for the Brewers. But if all 4 of those guys become above average players, what is better, one cheapish All Star or 4 super cheap MLB starting caliber players?

 

Still, it appears that all 4 of these guys stand a chance of being at least MLB regulars.

 

Highly unlikely that all 4 are MLB regulars.

[TURBO]

Yelich is amazing and it was a great trade for the Brewers. But if all 4 of those guys become above average players, what is better, one cheapish All Star or 4 super cheap MLB starting caliber players?

 

Still, it appears that all 4 of these guys stand a chance of being at least MLB regulars.

 

Highly unlikely that all 4 are MLB regulars.

 

Unlikely, but totally possible.

 

The crown jewel of that trade, Lewis Brinson, looks like the only bust of the bunch.

[Fear The Chorizo]

 

Unlikely, but totally possible.

 

The crown jewel of that trade, Lewis Brinson, looks like the only bust of the bunch.

 

When the other 3 prospects have a total of 1 start in MLB between them, there's just no way of knowing that. Brinson looks to be the only bust because thus far he's been the only one to have a sustained MLB opportunity - and he fell on his face to start his MLB career. There just as much chance of Brinson having the best career of the three and Diaz, Harrison, Yamamoto all amount to nothing more than a footnote on Christian Yelich's Wikipedia page referencing how in the world the Brewers acquired him.

[adambr2]

Yelich is amazing and it was a great trade for the Brewers. But if all 4 of those guys become above average players, what is better, one cheapish All Star or 4 super cheap MLB starting caliber players?

 

To call Yelich a cheapish All-Star really understates his value. There are 68 All-Stars in baseball every year, Yelich is at the very upper echelon of those players. Yelich is one of the top 2-3 players in baseball. He was the league MVP last year and is having an even better year this year. He will very likely go down as one of the greatest Brewers in franchise history. So you're not comparing those 4 players to a cheapish All-Star, you're comparing them to a cheapish MVP.

 

And secondly, we are so far away from those 4 being even replacement level MLB players, much less above average MLB regulars. (And I realize you didn't say otherwise). Harrison and Diaz have had nice seasons so far after both disappointing in 2018 in the minors. Yamamoto has had one career MLB start, Harrison and Diaz have never even stepped out onto an MLB field. MLB is littered with pitchers who dazzled in a debut and then fizzled, and littered with players who performed at a high level in the minors but couldn't translate that to the majors (Lewis Brinson is one of those guys, so far). The odds of all four turning into above average MLB regulars is incredibly remote. Not impossible, but very, very remote. Just go back to our top 4 prospects from 4, 5 years ago and see how many of them turned out to be above average MLB regulars.

 

I am not saying the Marlins did poorly in this trade, and I have no reason not to hope that all four do well in Miami. There doesn't have to be a loser in the trade. But I mean, comparing Christian Yelich to the likely trajectory of our franchise on holding the 4 prospects instead, it's not even close. We won a division title last year and came within one game of the World Series. We are highly likely to have back to back playoff appearances for the first time in ...ever? I don't know. We have a very good chance of being a perennial playoff team for the next 3-4 seasons, minimum. All of those things have incredible value to our franchise, and there's no way we're even sniffing the playoffs right now much less competing for the NL if the Yelich trade never happens. And barring the highly unlikely scenario in which one of the 4 traded to Miami turns into a star level player as well, we probably aren't getting there anytime in the next few years with the 4 we dealt.

[stalton]

Not all trades are going to be like the Gomez/Fiers trade. Like others have said, it takes value to get value. I think Yelich has a range of 30-45 WAR, meaning needing 7-11 WAR from the 4 prospects over their current contract. I think we will get more WAR from Yelich than the Marlins get from the 4, but I think it won't be that far away.

[MrTPlush]

Not all trades are going to be like the Gomez/Fiers trade. Like others have said, it takes value to get value. I think Yelich has a range of 30-45 WAR, meaning needing 7-11 WAR from the 4 prospects over their current contract. I think we will get more WAR from Yelich than the Marlins get from the 4, but I think it won't be that far away.

 

That really isn't accurate though because one player getting 40 WAR doesn't equal four players collectively getting that. Yearly we could have three guys at league minimum put up 1-1.5 WAR if we wanted to go with what Yelich does. Add that into the equation and Yelich (plus three guys) is probably worth more like 70 WAR. This doesn't take into consideration those four guys after extensions/arbitration are likely to cost more than Yelich if they are all relevant enough to garner 40 WAR together, maybe even exponentially more for the same production Yelich gave us.

 

Realistically to outperform Yelich, and the three guys we pair up with him, those four players will need nearly double the figure you listed. Think about if all those players became even solid starters and went through the entire arbitration system. Each would cost $8mil+ by the end. That $32mil in one year is already half of what we will pay Yelich over his entire 5 year contract.

 

It is way to complicated and impossible to really predict what it will take for them to be of similar value in a statistical/financial sense, but it would take way more than 40 WAR of production. End of the day though I think we got what we wanted (well way more) and what those players become (assuming none become stars) is woefully irrelevant to us. Good chance Yelich doesn't transform into a bonifide star in Miami so what he does he is pretty irrelevant to them. They just need those players to provide value to them now.

[PlayerHader]

One team winning a trade doesn't mean the other team lost. I think this could turn out to be a trade in which both teams end up winning. If Diaz becomes a borderline AS at 2b (I think he can be that), Yamamoto is a steady #3-4 SP going forward, and Harrison OR Brinson become everyday CF with at least passable offense (all of which I think are quite possible), it is hard to say that Marlins aren't better off.

 

Christian Yelich in Miami wasn't Christian Yelich in Milwaukee. There's no guaranteeing that he would become what he is had he stayed there. And even if he had, he's far more valuable to a contending team like Milwaukee than a rebuilding franchise like Miami.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Given how skeptical people were of Hiura (a much higher rated prospect than any of Diaz, Yamamoto, Harrison) I find it pretty amusing that suddenly all three are a shoo-in to be significant MLB contributors. I'd bet on all 4 combined prospects not reaching 25 career WAR. It's way to early to be throwing around some of the recent comments off of one Jordan Yamamoto start. The Brewers almost assuredly fleeced the Marlins. Not because they didn't give up quality prospects but because no one thought Yelich was going to turn into prime Barry Bonds.

[patrickgpe]

One team winning a trade doesn't mean the other team lost. I think this could turn out to be a trade in which both teams end up winning. If Diaz becomes a borderline AS at 2b (I think he can be that), Yamamoto is a steady #3-4 SP going forward, and Harrison OR Brinson become everyday CF with at least passable offense (all of which I think are quite possible), it is hard to say that Marlins aren't better off.

 

Christian Yelich in Miami wasn't Christian Yelich in Milwaukee. There's no guaranteeing that he would become what he is had he stayed there. And even if he had, he's far more valuable to a contending team like Milwaukee than a rebuilding franchise like Miami.

 

Yes, when you make a 4-1 trade, both teams can win. The brewers got what they wanted (needed) and hopefully the Marlins can too. I am not worried at this given time about any prospect we gave up. I won't freak out on one start from Jordan, since MLB debuts always seem to go like his or be a disaster.

[homer]

Both Diaz and Harrison have pretty severe home/road splits (they are both way better at home). Odd since the PCL is a hitter's league and New Orleans is probably the least hitter-friendly park.

[homer]

Given how skeptical people were of Hiura (a much higher rated prospect than any of Diaz, Yamamoto, Harrison) I find it pretty amusing that suddenly all three are a shoo-in to be significant MLB contributors. I'd bet on all 4 combined prospects not reaching 25 career WAR. It's way to early to be throwing around some of the recent comments off of one Jordan Yamamoto start. The Brewers almost assuredly fleeced the Marlins. Not because they didn't give up quality prospects but because no one thought Yelich was going to turn into prime Barry Bonds.

 

 

Hardly anyone was skeptical of Hiura, and no one thinks those three are shoo-ins to be anything.

[Thurston Fluff]

Given how skeptical people were of Hiura (a much higher rated prospect than any of Diaz, Yamamoto, Harrison) I find it pretty amusing that suddenly all three are a shoo-in to be significant MLB contributors. I'd bet on all 4 combined prospects not reaching 25 career WAR. It's way to early to be throwing around some of the recent comments off of one Jordan Yamamoto start. The Brewers almost assuredly fleeced the Marlins. Not because they didn't give up quality prospects but because no one thought Yelich was going to turn into prime Barry Bonds.

 

Even if they don't it's still doesn't mean it was a mistake to trade Yelich for them. Yelich's only value to them was as trade bait. He was not going to help them win anything. So if they get any positive value down the road when they have a chance to win was better to get the lesser total talent than to keep the greater overall talent at a time it couldn't help them.

[PeaveyFury]

One team winning a trade doesn't mean the other team lost.

 

I think Doug Melvin publically said something to this effect during his tenure. I think 'winning a trade' is something fans are bent on quantifying, but I don't think front offices are. They probably just don't want to end up having it look like a robbery down the line.

[young guns]

[sarcasm]Hopefully this yamamoto starts let's Miami feel comfortable trading with us again.[/sarcasm]

[MrTPlush]

Christian Yelich - Miami Marlins - 643 Games - 59 HRs

 

Christian Yelich - Milwaukee Brewers - 211 Games - 62 HRs

[Thurston Fluff]

Christian Yelich - Miami Marlins - 643 Games - 59 HRs

 

Christian Yelich - Milwaukee Brewers - 211 Games - 62 HRs

 

This is something I've thought about for a while now. How much credit/blame goes to the new club for that change? Miami might just not have the same level of scouting, coaching or analytics the Brewers have so the players involved might not perform the same as if they had been with the original club. Would Brinson have struggled the same here as he has there for example? That to me is the one thing we can't know when assessing the success of a trade. Obviously Miami has had success in developing top talent players but how much success has the Jeter era really had?

[monkeyman343434]

Christian Yelich - Miami Marlins - 643 Games - 59 HRs

 

Christian Yelich - Milwaukee Brewers - 211 Games - 62 HRs

 

This is something I've thought about for a while now. How much credit/blame goes to the new club for that change? Miami might just not have the same level of scouting, coaching or analytics the Brewers have so the players involved might not perform the same as if they had been with the original club. Would Brinson have struggled the same here as he has there for example? That to me is the one thing we can't know when assessing the success of a trade. Obviously Miami has had success in developing top talent players but how much success has the Jeter era really had?

 

I don't think this had anything to do with Milwaukee vs Miami, I believe the story came out that he was tinkering with his batting stance on his own around the All Star break last year, and started bending his legs more like how he hit back in HS, and was able to generate some more power with it.