Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto

[sveumrules]

All the bandwagon fans that jumped on around September are going to be disappointed that he's not prime Barry Bonds for all 162 games every year.

 

...but what if he is?

 

Then we definitely were wise to trade Brinson, Harrison, Diaz & Yamamoto for him.

[homer]

I think his point is that there will be many in the fan base that will be expecting a lot out of him and he may not be ever as good as he was for those last couple months. Heck, even after having a not so great NLCS, there were many in the fan base getting after him.

 

Yup. Last year will probably be the best offensive year of his career. His rate stats from the first half of last year were only slightly better than his career line, but still well above average. It's not a knock of Christian at all, he was simply hitting at a level that can't be maintained by anyone. All the bandwagon fans that jumped on around September are going to be disappointed that he's not prime Barry Bonds for all 162 games every year.

 

There were bandwagon fans in September?

[StearnsFTW]

Yelich is really good, but won't even hit a 7 WAR (just over 6 right now) according to Baseball Reference.

 

@FreezingColdTakes

 

A lot of 'new' posters saying absurd things that arent true. Shocker.

 

Of course that doesn't mean this one poster is new.

 

 

 

I also didn't say that.

 

Edit: I can see why people thought I did though. That whole post was screwed up quote-wise.

[homer]

It is very possible that Yelich improves on last year's first half numbers while regressing on the second half numbers thereby ending up in roughly the same place overall.

[MrTPlush]

It is very possible that Yelich improves on last year's first half numbers while regressing on the second half numbers thereby ending up in roughly the same place overall.

 

That was my thought. I'd expect somewhere in the middle to be honest...probably slightly skewed toward the first half if anything. .900ish OPS is what I expect out of him and is what I originally thought was a fair expectation moving to a more hitter friendly environment.

[RollieTime]

It is very possible that Yelich improves on last year's first half numbers while regressing on the second half numbers thereby ending up in roughly the same place overall.

 

My thoughts as well. I can definitely see him hitting 35 homeruns, driving in 110, and hitting .320 the next 4 years. Man is it nice to have a bat like his that can match Braun’s production when he was in his prime. We are one big bat away from a very potent offense.

[clancyphile]

It is very possible that Yelich improves on last year's first half numbers while regressing on the second half numbers thereby ending up in roughly the same place overall.

 

My thoughts as well. I can definitely see him hitting 35 homeruns, driving in 110, and hitting .320 the next 4 years. Man is it nice to have a bat like his that can match Braun’s production when he was in his prime. We are one big bat away from a very potent offense.

 

Did you watch the AFL this year? Some guy named Hiura may just be that big bat... at NO cost.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It is very possible that Yelich improves on last year's first half numbers while regressing on the second half numbers thereby ending up in roughly the same place overall.

 

My thoughts as well. I can definitely see him hitting 35 homeruns, driving in 110, and hitting .320 the next 4 years. Man is it nice to have a bat like his that can match Braun’s production when he was in his prime. We are one big bat away from a very potent offense.

 

Did you watch the AFL this year? Some guy named Hiura may just be that big bat... at NO cost.

 

The AFL is most assuredly NOT MLB pitching. I like Hiura too, but the kid hasn't played a second of AAA baseball. He may fit into the back portion of this team's contender window, but I doubt he does right now.

[Roderick]

 

Did you watch the AFL this year? Some guy named Hiura may just be that big bat... at NO cost.

 

The AFL is most assuredly NOT MLB pitching. I like Hiura too, but the kid hasn't played a second of AAA baseball. He may fit into the back portion of this team's contender window, but I doubt he does right now.

 

I guess I don't know what you consider to be our contender window. But I would not spend too many resources on a 2B, as I think Hiura can be up fulltime in June. I'm not expecting Braun's rookie season, but I doubt he would be too much over his head. Pair him up with an aging lefty stick to take some righties and we are set.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

I guess I don't know what you consider to be our contender window. But I would not spend too many resources on a 2B, as I think Hiura can be up fulltime in June. I'm not expecting Braun's rookie season, but I doubt he would be too much over his head. Pair him up with an aging lefty stick too take some righties and we are set.

 

I think our window is the next 2-3 years. I also think it would be prudent for Hiura to play the full year at AAA, and aim for 2020 to start playing regularly at the MLB level. It's going to take him time to get his feet under him at the MLB level. Hence back portion of the window. If it happens sooner, great! Just trying to be realistic.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Realistic? Realistic for Hiura is up by June this year solely to maintain control for one additional year and instantly be the 3rd best bat on the team. JMB, you've said similar things in the past including prior to this MVP showing in the AFL and it's apparent you just don't have a feel for just how special this bat is. If service time was a non issue he'd be in the opening day lineup.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Realistic? Realistic for Hiura is up by June this year solely to maintain control for one additional year and instantly be the 3rd best bat on the team. JMB, you've said similar things in the past including prior to this MVP showing in the AFL and it's apparent you just don't have a feel for just how special this bat is. If service time was a non issue he'd be in the opening day lineup.

 

I hope you are right, I really do. But making that jump successfully is super rare. I think he has the talent to have a long, successful MLB career, but I'm tapping the brakes before I call him the next Brooks Robinson. It is certainly exciting to have a potentially elite bat in the system, though.

 

You really don't need to condescend by saying I don't have a feel for prospects. The chances of him struggling in his first MLB action, whenever that occurs, are substantially higher than him coming up and immediately becoming the "3rd best bat on the team".

[82brewcrew82]

Realistic? Realistic for Hiura is up by June this year solely to maintain control for one additional year and instantly be the 3rd best bat on the team. JMB, you've said similar things in the past including prior to this MVP showing in the AFL and it's apparent you just don't have a feel for just how special this bat is. If service time was a non issue he'd be in the opening day lineup.

 

I hope you are right, I really do. But making that jump successfully is super rare. I think he has the talent to have a long, successful MLB career, but I'm tapping the brakes before I call him the next Brooks Robinson. It is certainly exciting to have a potentially elite bat in the system, though.

 

You really don't need to condescend by saying I don't have a feel for prospects. The chances of him struggling in his first MLB action, whenever that occurs, are substantially higher than him coming up and immediately becoming the "3rd best bat on the team".

It used to be rare but it's becoming more common by the season for players to ascend quickly through a given system. I think it's arbitrary to assume he will be a star based on his AFL performance but I think it's equally arbitrary to assume he will struggle upon promotion so he should stay down until 2020. Whether the right decision is to have a space for him in June or bring in help for the entire 2019 season, I trust DS and our evaluators to make that assessment correctly.

 

Personally, I think it ends up being sooner rather than later. I just cant see spending the resources at that particular position.

[A Swing and A Drive]

https://youtu.be/iUda34pwXxs

[KeithStone53151]

I would strongly argue it is more common for elite bats to rake almost immediately upon call up than for them to struggle. Acuna, bellinger, soto, bryant, judge, benintendi, lindor, etc.

[pitchleague]

I wasn't sure which thread to put this in. But in case you missed it, Yelich appeared as himself (and as the NL MVP) in tonight's episode of "Magnum P.I." It was an okay appearance but he sported the Brewers cap and made my wife giggle like a school girl. Plus, he totally flirted with Higgins.

[OnTheBlack]

 

I guess I don't know what you consider to be our contender window. But I would not spend too many resources on a 2B, as I think Hiura can be up fulltime in June. I'm not expecting Braun's rookie season, but I doubt he would be too much over his head. Pair him up with an aging lefty stick too take some righties and we are set.

 

I think our window is the next 2-3 years. I also think it would be prudent for Hiura to play the full year at AAA, and aim for 2020 to start playing regularly at the MLB level. It's going to take him time to get his feet under him at the MLB level. Hence back portion of the window. If it happens sooner, great! Just trying to be realistic.

 

 

Isn't it more prudent to promote him based on what he does rather than have a fixed time as to when you want to promote him?

Edit-Obviously it's prudent to be strategic in when you promote a elite top 10 overall prospect like Hirura with regard to service time...but not just leaving him at AAA for a full year just because.

 

 

Also, this should probably be in the "what's bugging you" forum, but who comes out and says "I'm not being realistic, but I think that." Everyone THINKS they're a realist.

 

I realistically think he's an extremely advanced bat who's going to be ready this year and I also realistically think our window is more than the next 2 or 3 years. I don't see anything closing that window as of now.

Hirura is a rare talent and a rare bat.

 

How many elite young players do we need to see all across MLB before we dispense with this antiquated notion that we need to see guys spend a full year in AAA. If a 19 year old Juan Soto can post a .923 OPS for the Nats, not sure why Hirura can't be a productive player for the Brewers at some point this year and then at some point be that big bat in the lineup with Yelich.

[OnTheBlack]

Realistic? Realistic for Hiura is up by June this year solely to maintain control for one additional year and instantly be the 3rd best bat on the team. JMB, you've said similar things in the past including prior to this MVP showing in the AFL and it's apparent you just don't have a feel for just how special this bat is. If service time was a non issue he'd be in the opening day lineup.

 

I hope you are right, I really do. But making that jump successfully is super rare. I think he has the talent to have a long, successful MLB career, but I'm tapping the brakes before I call him the next Brooks Robinson. It is certainly exciting to have a potentially elite bat in the system, though.

 

You really don't need to condescend by saying I don't have a feel for prospects. The chances of him struggling in his first MLB action, whenever that occurs, are substantially higher than him coming up and immediately becoming the "3rd best bat on the team".

 

 

I've NEVER seen anyone say he's the next Brooks Robinson. He's pretty much expected to be the antithesis of Brooks Robinson. If he ends up hitting like Brooks Robinson, I'll be disappointed. Of course if he ends up being the greatest defensive 3rd basemen of all time with a historically great throwing arm....that may off-set some of that disappointment.

 

And is it really that much more likely that an advanced college bat and top 10 overall prospect who is coming off a dominant AFL struggles rather than succeeds at the big league level?

 

[sarcasm]I really just want to see a simulated game with Jimmy Nelson throwing to Keson Hirura. That way I can write one guy off and get super excited about the other!![/sarcasm]

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Realistic? Realistic for Hiura is up by June this year solely to maintain control for one additional year and instantly be the 3rd best bat on the team. JMB, you've said similar things in the past including prior to this MVP showing in the AFL and it's apparent you just don't have a feel for just how special this bat is. If service time was a non issue he'd be in the opening day lineup.

 

I hope you are right, I really do. But making that jump successfully is super rare. I think he has the talent to have a long, successful MLB career, but I'm tapping the brakes before I call him the next Brooks Robinson. It is certainly exciting to have a potentially elite bat in the system, though.

 

You really don't need to condescend by saying I don't have a feel for prospects. The chances of him struggling in his first MLB action, whenever that occurs, are substantially higher than him coming up and immediately becoming the "3rd best bat on the team".

 

 

I've NEVER seen anyone say he's the next Brooks Robinson. He's pretty much expected to be the antithesis of Brooks Robinson. If he ends up hitting like Brooks Robinson, I'll be disappointed. Of course if he ends up being the greatest defensive 3rd basemen of all time with a historically great throwing arm....that may off-set some of that disappointment.

 

And is it really that much more likely that an advanced college bat and top 10 overall prospect who is coming off a dominant AFL struggles rather than succeeds at the big league level?

 

[sarcasm]I really just want to see a simulated game with Jimmy Nelson throwing to Keson Hirura. That way I can write one guy off and get super excited about the other!![/sarcasm]

 

In his first taste of MLB action following an overly-aggressive minor league promotion schedule ... yes, I would say there's a strong chance that he struggles in his first taste of MLB action, especially if that is in June after 40-something games of AAA action. I would say that the Brewers and Stearns agree, otherwise they wouldn't have signed Moustakas. That was 100% saying "Keston, we want to to tear the cover off the ball in San Antonio this year." If he can come up in August or September and provide another weapon during the pennant chase, great! But barring injury or some other crazy thing, we likely aren't going to see him before then.

 

And sorry about the Brooks Robinson reference. That was obviously a crappy comparison.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Just for fun

 

Lewis Brinson batting below .200 with -0.5 War

Monte Harrison has 12 strikeouts in 8 games

Isan Diaz is batting .200 through 12 games

 

Conversely, Yelich is off to a 1.3 War year already. And, well, doing what Yelli does.

[MadScientist]

And without Yelich, the Brewers might be closer to Miami's 4-14 record instead of 12-7

[dlk9s]

Guys, I think we should pump the brakes a bit and wait to evaluate this trade until we see how Yamamoto pans out.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Guys, I think we should pump the brakes a bit and wait to evaluate this trade until we see how Yamamoto pans out.

 

I don't know. This Yelich guy is starting to look pretty good. I think the Brewers have a chance to win this trade.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Reading through the first 5 or 6 pages of this thread where the initial reactions were posted is a special kind of entertainment, particularly with it appearing more certain by the day that the brewers acquired a generational talent for what amounts to a couple Broxtons, a 2b who might turn into a good mlb player if he is allowed to develop another 5 years in the minors, and a pitcher that has "upside" simply because when compared to the other prospects in this trade he better be great - even though my opinion of yamamoto is he hasn't been a prospect long enough for everyone to realize he's just a guy.

[cesser000]

Reading through the first 5 or 6 pages of this thread where the initial reactions were posted is a special kind of entertainment

Boy, you weren't kidding. Some people REALLY just thought this was the worst deal ever and were calling for Stearns' head