Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto

[jjfanec]

JP Morosi on MLB Network just now...

 

"Christian Yelich right now is the NL MVP front runner."

 

With the Carpenter slipping a lot and the Dbacks looking like they will miss the playoffs I get the feeling it is Yelich vs Baez. Yelich has a better offensive profile. Baez plays a more premium position. Should be interesting.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

JP Morosi on MLB Network just now...

 

"Christian Yelich right now is the NL MVP front runner."

 

With the Carpenter slipping a lot and the Dbacks looking like they will miss the playoffs I get the feeling it is Yelich vs Baez. Yelich has a better offensive profile. Baez plays a more premium position. Should be interesting.

 

Will likely come down to which guy puts the team on his back these last two weeks. Both off to good starts last night.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yelich has to be the leader in the clubhouse right now for MVP. I think you could make a case for Arenado as well.

 

It is a 3 person race between Baez, Goldy, and Yelich. All else remaining equal I think Goldy would finish 3rd if the other two make the playoffs and I think Yelich and Baez are having the better statistical years anyways. Yelich is currently tied for 1st in AVE, 1st in OPS, 4th in WAR (Cain is 1st), 3rd in runs, tied for 7th in RBI, 7th in OBP, and 1st in slugging

 

You forget Baez has a few things going for him. Some legitimate some not

1. He is doing it as an infielder who plays multiple positions.

2. He has a very slight lead in WAR, home runs and RBIs

3. He plays for Chicago

4. He is exciting to watch

 

I dont think 3 or 4 should matter but they will. Really number 2 is a wash almost. Especially when you factor in yelich's commanding lead in ops and all those stats. 1 is legitimate but I think Yelich has covered a ton of ground. In mind it would hard not to give it to the guy who leads in batting average and ops if that happens.

Yelich has Báez at least matched on #4. Maybe their personalities are different, but if watching Yelich isn't flat-out exciting, then I don't know how to baseball anymore.

[sveumrules]

Baez currently has a .328 OBP. Pretty sure that would tie Andre Dawson for the lowest OBP ever by an MVP were Javy to win.

 

The electorate has evolved a lot since 1987. I hope.

[tmwiese55]

I suppose I'm biased and all but I really think he should clearly get it over Baez now that he's closed the HR/RBI gap so much. Those were the arguments the other way and they're now greatly reduced. It's really down to those two IMO.

[reillymcshane]

I've said this before about Yelich, and that is that getting out of Miami would increase his numbers.

 

From 2015-17:

 

In Miami: 783 ABs, .277 BA, 16 HRs, .763 OPS

On the road: 873 ABs, .307 BA, 30 HRs, .867 OPS

 

Based on those numbers, I expected Yelich to hit .300 with 25 HRs.

 

Of course, at age 26, there was room to grow as a hitter. I don't count on those kinds of things, but I hope it happens.

 

To me the really dramatic change has been his ability to hit lefties with more power. From 2015-17 he had a .715 OPS vs lefties. This year it has been .913. That's impressive.

[coolhandluke121]

Analytics actually didn't peg Yelich for much of a power surge at all. As mentioned his launch angle wasn't all that significant from his swing. Thus simply moving to Miller Park wasn't going to necessarily give him a big power surge. The big power surge was on the assumption he would change his swing to favor Miller Park a bit more. I don't know if that is the reason for his surge or not though.

 

 

I think that is a fair assumption though, isn't it? If you play in a park that doesn't cater to LH power, why would you go up there and try to hit flyballs?

 

Yeah, that's what I meant. Lots of guys have changed their launch angle recently. It's not like hitting against the shift. It seems to be a pretty simple adjustment.

[coolhandluke121]

I suppose I'm biased and all but I really think he should clearly get it over Baez now that he's closed the HR/RBI gap so much. Those were the arguments the other way and they're now greatly reduced. It's really down to those two IMO.

 

Yelich has definitely surpassed Baez. Great SLG does not compensate for a bad OBP, and all the talk about his versatility is overplayed. Yelich can move over to a premium defensive position and be a mediocre defender there just like Baez. Baez playing great 2B defense is no better than Yelich's LF defense. It does not translate to CF, but Baez's 2B defense doesn't really translate to SS very impressively either.

 

I still think Cain is my leader, but I can't stick to my guns much longer at this rate. You don't have to be a slugger to be MVP if you're the best leadoff man in baseball. His OBP has basically been .400 all year and he plays premium CF defense. A lot of teams are just hoping for bonus offense if they have a premiere defender at CF, SS, or C, and the Brewers are getting a .400 OBP. It's ludicrously valuable. For all the talk of Yelich being hot at the right time, that's just narrative - not value. I think Cain's consistency has probably been more valuable. He has basically been the NL leader in WAR for position players literally since day 1 by some measures.

[jjfanec]

 

You forget Baez has a few things going for him. Some legitimate some not

1. He is doing it as an infielder who plays multiple positions.

2. He has a very slight lead in WAR, home runs and RBIs

3. He plays for Chicago

4. He is exciting to watch

 

I dont think 3 or 4 should matter but they will. Really number 2 is a wash almost. Especially when you factor in yelich's commanding lead in ops and all those stats. 1 is legitimate but I think Yelich has covered a ton of ground. In mind it would hard not to give it to the guy who leads in batting average and ops if that happens.

Yelich has Báez at least matched on #4. Maybe their personalities are different, but if watching Yelich isn't flat-out exciting, then I don't know how to baseball anymore.

 

While I completely agree Baez gets publicity for his excitement. There are numerous articles out there about him being the most exciting player and for his celebrations. It shouldnt matter but neither should him being from a big market team but I think both might. I am about as big of Yelich fan as you can find and think he should win because right now outside of Baez being able to play SS he really doesnt have much over Yelich - similar home runs and stolen bases. Only really RBIs but Yelich has been batting 1 or 2 a lot of the year so that makes sense. The fact that Yelich is leading the league in BA and OPS is crazy

[tmwiese55]

I suppose I'm biased and all but I really think he should clearly get it over Baez now that he's closed the HR/RBI gap so much. Those were the arguments the other way and they're now greatly reduced. It's really down to those two IMO.

 

Yelich has definitely surpassed Baez. Great SLG does not compensate for a bad OBP, and all the talk about his versatility is overplayed. Yelich can move over to a premium defensive position and be a mediocre defender there just like Baez. Baez playing great 2B defense is no better than Yelich's LF defense. It does not translate to CF, but Baez's 2B defense doesn't really translate to SS very impressively either.

 

I still think Cain is my leader, but I can't stick to my guns much longer at this rate. You don't have to be a slugger to be MVP if you're the best leadoff man in baseball. His OBP has basically been .400 all year and he plays premium CF defense. A lot of teams are just hoping for bonus offense if they have a premiere defender at CF, SS, or C, and the Brewers are getting a .400 OBP. It's ludicrously valuable. For all the talk of Yelich being hot at the right time, that's just narrative - not value. I think Cain's consistency has probably been more valuable. He has basically been the NL leader in WAR for position players literally since day 1 by some measures.

 

All well said. Thing is we know how MVP voting works. The counting stats matter. We can say how it should be but that's just not reality. 310/400 with 11 HRs and 41 RBIs just isn't going to win MVP. Yelich has also scored 20 more Rs than Yelich. Also, Yelich's OBP is only 14 below Cain's right now but Cain is 130 behind in OPS. That difference in slugging is huge. Also, WAR and defensive metrics are still so unknown/flawed/inexact or whatever you want to call it that voters and even people like us have to hesitate to put tooo much weight into those things. And again it's not like yelich is some kind of liability on D to create a massive gap there as it would be if Yelich's stats were being gained at 1B or DH. Sure is nice to have two guys legit in the conversation though.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Baez currently has a .328 OBP. Pretty sure that would tie Andre Dawson for the lowest OBP ever by an MVP were Javy to win.

 

The electorate has evolved a lot since 1987. I hope.

 

 

This post made me curious obviously. Zoilo Versailles won the AL MVP in 1965 with a .273/.319/.462 slash line. Yuck and a half.

 

Marty Marion won the NL award in 1944 with a .267/324/362 slash line. He must have been a HECK of a defender.....

[liveforoctober]

I guess I'm not understanding the decision between Yelich and Baez at this point. Yelich has him in almost every offensive category, a few of which by a considerable margin. The spots Baez has the lead are mostly marginal leads. Yelich beats him in WAR as well, which is a better read on a player's value adding defense, no?

 

Baez has the defensive versatility at a premium position on Yelich and that's about it. Honest question, what am I missing?

[DuWayne Steurer]

I guess I'm not understanding the decision between Yelich and Baez at this point. Yelich has him in almost every offensive category, a few of which by a considerable margin. The spots Baez has the lead are mostly marginal leads. Yelich beats him in WAR as well, which is a better read on a player's value adding defense, no?

 

Baez has the defensive versatility at a premium position on Yelich and that's about it. Honest question, what am I missing?

 

Baez plays for the Cubs.

[liveforoctober]

I guess I'm not understanding the decision between Yelich and Baez at this point. Yelich has him in almost every offensive category, a few of which by a considerable margin. The spots Baez has the lead are mostly marginal leads. Yelich beats him in WAR as well, which is a better read on a player's value adding defense, no?

 

Baez has the defensive versatility at a premium position on Yelich and that's about it. Honest question, what am I missing?

 

Baez plays for the Cubs.

 

I guess that is my point... is his inclusion in the MVP talk simply to keep a large market of fans excited in that conversation?

 

Stepping back and being as impartial as possible... If I had to start a team from scratch and add players 2018 years to my roster... Baez isn't a top 10 choice for me. Cain is more deserving than Baez.

[MrTPlush]

There just hasn't been much love for Yelich. We might get a better picture once writers vote and/or announce how they decided. Looking at Vegas and the limited articles we have seen on the MVP topic Yelich seems to be a bit of a darkhorse. Too bad the Mets suck because I think DeGrom would run away with it if he was on a winning team. That is about the only person I would take over Yelich right now.

 

Personally I think it should go:

 

1) Yelich

2) DeGrom

3) Goldschmidt

4)Cain

5)Baez

 

Something about picking DeGrom, who pitches under zero pressure, just seems like a big turn off to me.

[DuWayne Steurer]

How do you start 30 games, pitch nearly 7 IP per start, have an ERA of 1.78, and have a record of 8-9? I KNOW the answer is "because Mets", but still...... that's beyond belief almost.

[FVBrewerFan]

I guess I'm not understanding the decision between Yelich and Baez at this point. Yelich has him in almost every offensive category, a few of which by a considerable margin. The spots Baez has the lead are mostly marginal leads. Yelich beats him in WAR as well, which is a better read on a player's value adding defense, no?

 

Baez has the defensive versatility at a premium position on Yelich and that's about it. Honest question, what am I missing?

 

Baez plays for the Cubs.

 

I don't think the big/small market matters. Braun beat out Kemp for MVP when they had very similar numbers.

 

Another thing working in Yelich's favor is defense. Make that his PERCEIVED defense. He has a gold glove on his resume, and my guess is the national media thinks he's a much better defensive player than he really is.

[adambr2]

I've been wrong on the hot takes before too as seen on the first few pages. Happens.

 

I find the huge pats on the back and begging for more from HH19 to be more cringeworthy.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

I don't think the big/small market matters. Braun beat out Kemp for MVP when they had very similar numbers.

 

Another thing working in Yelich's favor is defense. Make that his PERCEIVED defense. He has a gold glove on his resume, and my guess is the national media thinks he's a much better defensive player than he really is.

 

Baez has a great reputation as a flashy/well regarded defender, so I don't think that's a plus in Yelich's column.

[MrTPlush]

How do you start 30 games, pitch nearly 7 IP per start, have an ERA of 1.78, and have a record of 8-9? I KNOW the answer is "because Mets", but still...... that's beyond belief almost.

 

His losses:

 

8 innings 2 ER

7 innings 1 ER

6 innings 3 ER

6 innings 3 ER

8 innings 2 ER

7 innings 3 ER

8 innings 2 ER

6 innings 1 ER

7 innings 2 ER

 

He has only thrown two games (not including the early May games where something weird must have happened) where it wasn't a QS. They were games 1 and 3 of his season! One was opening day where he went 5 2/3 of one run ball and his third game he gave up 4 runs in 6 innings. Funny enough they won both of those games.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I've been wrong on the hot takes before too as seen on the first few pages. Happens.

 

I find the huge pats on the back and begging for more from HH19 to be more cringeworthy.

 

I think it's alright to open these threads and say "hey here's some stuff that people said about this trade". As long as it's not done in a really mean spirited way. I've been right, and I've been wrong. I didn't like the Lind trade, because the guys we got back were all no-names. That one worked out ok, (so far), and Adam Lind is pretty much looking for work now.

[DuWayne Steurer]

How do you start 30 games, pitch nearly 7 IP per start, have an ERA of 1.78, and have a record of 8-9? I KNOW the answer is "because Mets", but still...... that's beyond belief almost.

 

His losses:

 

8 innings 2 ER

7 innings 1 ER

6 innings 3 ER

6 innings 3 ER

8 innings 2 ER

7 innings 3 ER

8 innings 2 ER

6 innings 1 ER

7 innings 2 ER

 

He has only thrown two games (not including the early May games where something weird must have happened) where it wasn't a QS. They were games 1 and 3 of his season! One was opening day where he went 5 2/3 of one run ball and his third game he gave up 4 runs in 6 innings. Funny enough they won both of those games.

 

 

He's the anti-Wayne Franklin......

[stalton]

How do you start 30 games, pitch nearly 7 IP per start, have an ERA of 1.78, and have a record of 8-9? I KNOW the answer is "because Mets", but still...... that's beyond belief almost.

 

His losses:

 

8 innings 2 ER

7 innings 1 ER

6 innings 3 ER

6 innings 3 ER

8 innings 2 ER

7 innings 3 ER

8 innings 2 ER

6 innings 1 ER

7 innings 2 ER

 

He has only thrown two games (not including the early May games where something weird must have happened) where it wasn't a QS. They were games 1 and 3 of his season! One was opening day where he went 5 2/3 of one run ball and his third game he gave up 4 runs in 6 innings. Funny enough they won both of those games.

 

That is some serious Ben Sheets type game logs. I know this is year 1 of the trade but personally I will wait another year or two to see how the prospects develop. Brantley, IIRC, didn't start kicking butt immediately after the CC trade.

[cesser000]

Marty Marion won the NL award in 1944 with a .267/324/362 slash line. He must have been a HECK of a defender.....

Well, he was a Cardinal, and from what I hear VERY classy

 

Seriously though, that one is a head-scratcher. Granted it was during the war years and the talent league-wide was diluted, but Marion had a .686 OPS, 6 homers, and just 63 RBIs! Must've had something to do with the Cardinals winning the Series that year I'm sure.

 

Any one of the next three guys in the voting that season would've been my choice:

 

Bill Nicholson, Cubs -- .287/391/.545/.935 OPS, 33 HR's, 122 RBIs

Dixie Walker, Dodgers -- .357/.434/.529/.963 OPS, 13 HR's, 91 RBIs

Stan Musial, Cardinals -- .347/.440/.549/.990 OPS, 12 HR's, 94 RBIs - you'd think Musial would've won it with St. Louis taking it all that year

[sveumrules]

Baez currently has a .328 OBP. Pretty sure that would tie Andre Dawson for the lowest OBP ever by an MVP were Javy to win.

 

The electorate has evolved a lot since 1987. I hope.

 

 

This post made me curious obviously. Zoilo Versailles won the AL MVP in 1965 with a .273/.319/.462 slash line. Yuck and a half.

 

Marty Marion won the NL award in 1944 with a .267/324/362 slash line. He must have been a HECK of a defender.....

 

Nice digging, RoCo.

 

Also, digging the Billy Jo Robidoux avatar.