Yelich to the Brewers in exchange for Brinson, Isan Diaz, M. Harrison and Yamamoto

[WestCoastCrew]

Hey if Ryan Zimmerman can go from a .642 OPS to a .930 at similar age then it's not too much of a stretch for Braun to rebound to something around .875. He is only a season removed from a .903 OPS.

 

This.

 

Braun signed his 5/105 deal prior to 2016, right? He needs to be worth what? 13 wins over those 5 years to have it be an even deal? He's at 4.8 fWAR and 4.7 bWAR with three years to go. I don't think it's crazy that he ends up around 10 WAR total over the life of the contract.

 

That makes it an unwise deal in the end, but not so unwise as to be horrible. And there's probably something to be gained from having Braun around for some people. I wouldn't count myself as one of them, and I do think the deal is subpar. But it's not so bad as to be completely underwater at this point, and not so bad as to be a franchise-killing albatross. I don't think last year is the real Braun, nor do I think 2016 is legitimate to expect, but if he's a 2-win player for the next three years (and he is still a guy who can hit, I think), I think it's probably a C-level deal for the Brewers. Maybe the franchise can't afford C-level deals, but the reality is you're going to have them.

 

Braun signed the extension in April 2011 -- before his PED issues came to light following his MVP season. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/brewers-extend-ryan-braun-through-2020.html

 

The extension kicked in starting in 2016.

[adambr2]

I really do want to be wrong on Braun. I want the Brewers to win way more than I want to be right.

 

It does not matter what I think of him personally, if he can contribute 25 HR or so and around an .850 OPS with 500ish ABs for even 2 of the next 3 seasons with at least passable defense, I'll gladly say that I was wrong and that he was still worth having around.

[MrTPlush]

Yelich picked #22 for those curious.

[3and2Fastball]

Yelich picked #22 for those curious.

 

I want a Yelich jersey ASAP

[MVP2110]

Yelich picked #22 for those curious.

 

I want a Yelich jersey ASAP

 

Same. Hopefully they are online soon

[splitterpfj]

I love this move, period.

 

It won't surprise me if Monte Harrison has the best MLB career of the four guys Milwaukee traded, and yes, the Marlins got a ton of potential in the deal.

 

The Brewers got a true stud, an under-appreciated talent because he doesn't hit huge HR totals, but a real talent, for five years, on a great contract. Trading that many quality prospects is always a risk, but this is a move I would make.

 

My one issue with it, at the moment at least, is the very obvious need for a good starting pitcher. If the Brewers fill that hole, then I'll think the decision to get Yelich was incredible, and if not, it's still absolutely a move I would make.

[Lathund]

An interesting take on the value of the Yelich trade (And the Cain signing) from BPMilwaukee:

 

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/30/cain-and-yelich-renegotiating-surplus/

[SRB]

An interesting take on the value of the Yelich trade (And the Cain signing) from BPMilwaukee:

 

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/30/cain-and-yelich-renegotiating-surplus/

 

Interesting, though as always when people try to quantify prospect values, those valuations are preposterous.

[JosephC]

Have to admit that I've grown more cold on this deal since it went down. Love Yelich and the offensive skills he brings. I don't think it was an overpay by Milwaukee in any way. But I wouldn't have made this deal unless I already had a plan in place to move Braun to another team. Reviewed Braun's defensive plus/minus numbers from his 3B season and do not want to see him anywhere near a MLB infield unless he is holding a bat or running the bases. Braun still has a good enough bat where he needs to be in a lineup everyday. No question Yelich and Cain have quality bats, but a big part of the value they bring to a major league team is left field and centerfield defensive, respectively. It would be a real shame if the Brewers put Yelich in right field and his arm proved to play like Kris Davis' arm in left. And it would be a bigger shame if they eventually put Yelich in centerfield and moved Cain to right field. Also would point out that Braun is a career +24 DRS and -3.3 UZR/150 as a left fielder, but is a -9 DRS and -7.6 UZR/150 as a right fielder. Also should be noted that Braun's arm played at a -4 level in only 798 1/3 left field innings in 2017. So moving Braun to right field is also a significant downgrade.

 

Really wish the Brewers could somehow dump Braun.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So moving Braun to right field is also a significant downgrade.

 

Braun would be a downgrade in RF compared to Phillips for sure, but probably on par if not an upgrade on Santana.

[homer]

Have to admit that I've grown more cold on this deal since it went down. Love Yelich and the offensive skills he brings. I don't think it was an overpay by Milwaukee in any way. But I wouldn't have made this deal unless I already had a plan in place to move Braun to another team.

 

There were other teams interested in Yelich. I don't think the Marlins would have been ok with the Brewers saying "Can we just agree on this and not make it official until we trade one of our outfielders?"

[homer]

Interesting article on what moving to Miller Park might do for Yelich and Cain's power numbers:

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/yelich-cain-should-benefit-from-miller-park/c-265412546

[SRB]

This is very cool: Lewis Brinson gets surprised by Juan Pierre

[TooLiveBrew]

This is very cool: Lewis Brinson gets surprised by Juan Pierre

Thanks for posting that, very cool indeed

[DuWayne Steurer]

So moving Braun to right field is also a significant downgrade.

 

Braun would be a downgrade in RF compared to Phillips for sure, but probably on par if not an upgrade on Santana.

 

 

Santana had a higher BA, OBP, and SLG than Braun last year. As Santana moves into his prime, and Braun continues to age, I see no reason that wouldn't continue. Santana isn't a good defender, but at this point, neither is Braun. Santana was a 3.0 WAR player. i'd put good money on him being a 3.0 to 3.5 WAR player again this year. I don't know that Braun is going to be that kind of a player going forward anymore.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So moving Braun to right field is also a significant downgrade.

 

Braun would be a downgrade in RF compared to Phillips for sure, but probably on par if not an upgrade on Santana.

 

 

Santana had a higher BA, OBP, and SLG than Braun last year. As Santana moves into his prime, and Braun continues to age, I see no reason that wouldn't continue. Santana isn't a good defender, but at this point, neither is Braun. Santana was a 3.0 WAR player. i'd put good money on him being a 3.0 to 3.5 WAR player again this year. I don't know that Braun is going to be that kind of a player going forward anymore.

 

I thought the argument was just making the comparison defensively. I totally get where you are coming from when you bring offense into the mix, but JosephC's argument was that Braun brings negative defensive numbers pretty much anywhere he's moved, but especially to RF. I argued that he'd likely be better defensively out there than Santana. Although I do think it is possible that Santana is young enough to still show defensive improvement as well.

[JosephC]

To this point the metrics show that Braun has been a better right fielder than Santana. Braun has played 2287 innings in right field and has a -9 DRS and a -7.6 UZR/150. Santana has played 1927 1/3 innings in right field and has a -15 DRS and a -11.8 UZR/150. All of Braun's innings except one occurred during his age 30 and 31 seasons, and he'll be in his age 34 season in 2018. Santana will be entering his age 25 season in 2018. Santana's defensive metrics were much improved from 2016 to 2017. His DRS improved from -8 to -5 (not innings adjusted and he played over twice as many innings in right field in 2017, so the improvement was much more dramatic than the raw number demonstrates), and the UZR/150 improved from -28.9 to -4.9.

[reillymcshane]

This is very cool: Lewis Brinson gets surprised by Juan Pierre

Thanks for posting that, very cool indeed

Yeah, that was pretty cool.

[clancyphile]

To this point the metrics show that Braun has been a better right fielder than Santana. Braun has played 2287 innings in right field and has a -9 DRS and a -7.6 UZR/150. Santana has played 1927 1/3 innings in right field and has a -15 DRS and a -11.8 UZR/150. All of Braun's innings except one occurred during his age 30 and 31 seasons, and he'll be in his age 34 season in 2018. Santana will be entering his age 25 season in 2018. Santana's defensive metrics were much improved from 2016 to 2017. His DRS improved from -8 to -5 (not innings adjusted and he played over twice as many innings in right field in 2017, so the improvement was much more dramatic than the raw number demonstrates), and the UZR/150 improved from -28.9 to -4.9.

 

All well and good, but I am more interested in on-base plus slugging.

 

Will Braun and Santana top the .900 plateau? If they do, great. That means Yelich, Cain, Villar, and others are scoring a lot of runs.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

I thought the argument was just making the comparison defensively. I totally get where you are coming from when you bring offense into the mix, but JosephC's argument was that Braun brings negative defensive numbers pretty much anywhere he's moved, but especially to RF. I argued that he'd likely be better defensively out there than Santana. Although I do think it is possible that Santana is young enough to still show defensive improvement as well.

 

 

That's what I get for skimming. Happens when these threads get so long. :p

[Eye Black]

Newest article from Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs: Christian Yelich’s Arrow Is Pointing Up

[StearnsFTW]

Has Yelich spoken publicly since the trade? I'd be curious to hear his thoughts.

 

Mightve missed it.

[Eye Black]

Has Yelich spoken publicly since the trade? I'd be curious to hear his thoughts.

 

Mightve missed it.

Yes, he did interviews at the fan fest event last weekend. He also did an interview with Barstool Radio that isn’t safe to post here, but you can find if you search for it on Twitter (warning, the host is extremely annoying, vulgar and lewd).

[MrTPlush]

Has Yelich spoken publicly since the trade? I'd be curious to hear his thoughts.

 

Mightve missed it.

 

There was a radio interview with WTMJ I believe right(RIGHT) after it happened.

[StearnsFTW]

Thanks guys. Figured he must have