Darvish

[TURBO]

Can just hope that the price was steep

 

The Brewers will be fine if they can get one of Cobb/Lynn and maybe trade for another arm. Scrubs fans won’t live this one down.

 

Cobb or Lynn are not difference makers imo. They are not the type of pitchers that push us into the playoffs. To be honest, I'm happy to sit on our farm one more year, see where things lead, and stay the course of the re-build.

[brewmann04]

Hope the Cubs watched his performance in the playoffs

[rht]

Can just hope that the price was steep

 

The Brewers will be fine if they can get one of Cobb/Lynn and maybe trade for another arm. Scrubs fans won’t live this one down.

 

Cobb or Lynn are not difference makers imo. They are not the type of pitchers that push us into the playoffs. To be honest, I'm happy to sit on our farm one more year, see where things lead, and stay the course of the re-build.

 

Darvish was quite the difference maker for the Dodgers in the World Series. Just saying, Brewers almost made the playoffs with no aces and without their best pitcher for the last couple weeks of the year. If they can have 5 guys perform at 2/3 with a solid pen, that should be enough to push them into the playoffs and you never know where that takes you once you get there. Nelson/Anderson/Davies/Chacin/Lynn could put us at that level not counting another possible starter trade.

[wallus]

Cubs fans talking lots of trash... shocked

 

https://www.northsidebaseball.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1914&start=425

[Oxy]

What if we offered him 1 year, $40M?

[KeithStone53151]

Cubs fans talking lots of trash... shocked

 

https://www.northsidebaseball.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1914&start=425

 

Oh man alive, I didn't know Cubs fans had a similar board. They sure spend a lot of time on our board for their level of confidence that everything is going to work out and they are guaranteed the next 3 world series. It's not like their farm system is barren, their payroll will be stretched thin as soon as next season, the astros/dodgers/yankees/nationals exist, and they have significant holes in their roster for an all-in team. Aside from all that, Darvish signing makes them a lock for the next 3 world series rings...or something.

 

Oh and they are going to get Harper apparently, and some are joking about going after Yelich since we are rumored to have interest. They could send the Marlins their 100 best prospects and it still wouldn't get it done. I'll be looking forward to going back to their board next offseason sometime after Harper signs with someone else and laugh at all their puzzled comments and likely cursing of Harper. But, I'll be sure to avoid their board in 2124 when they are due for their next WS ring.

[Point Beer Is Best]

A screenshot from HighHeat in this thread indicating Darvish is signing with the Cubs is out there on Twitter. While we certainly are enjoying the tidbits we receive, I don’t want to risk HighHeat or his source getting into trouble.

 

Is there a way to make a more secure sub forum (like we did with the private off-topic) where users have to be vetted to enter? It’s obvious these tools are lurking.

[82brewcrew82]

Cubs fans talking lots of trash... shocked

 

https://www.northsidebaseball.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1914&start=425

It's cute how a team the sucked tailpipe for 100 years and willingly embraced the "lovable losers" moniker now thinks they are somehow baseball royalty. My world would be far less entertaining without the baby bear fans.

[superfly]

"Can't wait until we have Darvish and Harper in 2019."

 

Money sure does grow on trees when you're a tough talker behind a keyboard.

[JosephC]

The writing is kind of on the wall at this point, from the Twins beat reporter...

 

@MikeBerardino: Club official that has been in contact with #mntwins front office expressed doubt about their chances of landing Yu Darvish now that his market seems revived. “They aren’t giving him $150 million,” official said.

 

Woah, does this mean Darvish and the other front-line starters will not be signing bargain deals? Can't be so as the media has been saying if players don't sign until after January 1st, then they will only be getting about half of what they are truly worth!!!!

[Eye Black]

I wouldn't get too hung up on the Northsiders commentary. It appears one of the things that struck their fancy was something I said somewhat in jest with about two seconds of thought put into it about cooling off their Bryce Harper crush.

 

The truth is the Cubs are a very good team for the foreseeable future, and both Yu Darvish and Bryce Harper are very good players. If they think investing a combined $70 million dollars annually in Darvish and Harper for the next half decade for a team that is within striking distance of the luxury tax threshold is a good idea, then I say by all means go for it.

[KeithStone53151]

I wouldn't get too hung up on the Northsiders commentary. It appears one of the things that struck their fancy was something I said somewhat in jest with about two seconds of thought put into it about cooling off their Bryce Harper crush.

 

The truth is the Cubs are a very good team for the foreseeable future, and both Yu Darvish and Bryce Harper are very good players. If they think investing a combined $70 million dollars annually in Darvish and Harper for the next half decade for a team that is within striking distance of the luxury tax threshold is a good idea, then I say by all means go for it.

 

I ran numbers this morning with arbitration estimates. Their payroll at this point is around 160, and they don't have a 5th starter yet(unless they roll montgomery). Also I'm not sure their CF plan, maybe they roll Happ/Almora/Heyward in CF/RF...not sure. If they add Darvish they are up to probably 185ish, a touch high but not unreasonable based on the last couple years. In 2019 though, 25 million for Darvish puts them to around 195 and they'll lose a bullpen arm(Wilson unless they extend him). I'm not sure how high their payroll can go, but I doubt they can afford $40 million for Harper. 2020(without harper) their payroll will be at roughly 185 and they'll have lost 4 more bullpen arms(cishek, strop, duensing, grimm) and Zobrist. And as has been noted, they have nobody in their farm that can come up and fill those roles for league minimum...so they'll have to dive into free agency or find a way to trade for them. By this point they'll probably have had at least a couple prospects breakout that they can trade, but probably not anybody ready to play at the mlb level.

 

The position player side of their 25 man roster is solid(aside from heyward) and they have their 2 stars, but they have no depth behind it. The roster is built to be able to withstand 1 maybe 2 non-bryant/rizzo injuries before they have to plug in well below replacement level players. Looking at their pitching, their rotation is primarily mid rotation guys that are likely to regress. Darvish would become their best SP if signed. Their bullpen is filled with very solid pitchers in all 8 spots, but none of their relievers are as good as Chapman or Davis. They don't have that guy you can throw in in the 8th with a 1 run lead and nail it down in the playoffs, and don't have the ability to get him without shelling out cash or trading from the 25. Their pitching(and team really) are built to make the playoffs the next year or two IF they can stay relatively healthy, but not to win in the playoffs. Their pitching simply will not match up with the nationals/dodgers.

[pacopete4]

What the Cubs don't have today, will be bought tomorrow. Stearns is just focused on creating the best Brewers team he possibly can and then you hope it works out. Worrying about the Cubs is the least of his worries.

[bill hAll Star]

I wouldn't get too hung up on the Northsiders commentary. It appears one of the things that struck their fancy was something I said somewhat in jest with about two seconds of thought put into it about cooling off their Bryce Harper crush.

 

The truth is the Cubs are a very good team for the foreseeable future, and both Yu Darvish and Bryce Harper are very good players. If they think investing a combined $70 million dollars annually in Darvish and Harper for the next half decade for a team that is within striking distance of the luxury tax threshold is a good idea, then I say by all means go for it.

 

I ran numbers this morning with arbitration estimates. Their payroll at this point is around 160, and they don't have a 5th starter yet(unless they roll montgomery). Also I'm not sure their CF plan, maybe they roll Happ/Almora/Heyward in CF/RF...not sure. If they add Darvish they are up to probably 185ish, a touch high but not unreasonable based on the last couple years. In 2019 though, 25 million for Darvish puts them to around 195 and they'll lose a bullpen arm(Wilson unless they extend him). I'm not sure how high their payroll can go, but I doubt they can afford $40 million for Harper. 2020(without harper) their payroll will be at roughly 185 and they'll have lost 4 more bullpen arms(cishek, strop, duensing, grimm) and Zobrist. And as has been noted, they have nobody in their farm that can come up and fill those roles for league minimum...so they'll have to dive into free agency or find a way to trade for them. By this point they'll probably have had at least a couple prospects breakout that they can trade, but probably not anybody ready to play at the mlb level.

 

The position player side of their 25 man roster is solid(aside from heyward) and they have their 2 stars, but they have no depth behind it. The roster is built to be able to withstand 1 maybe 2 non-bryant/rizzo injuries before they have to plug in well below replacement level players. Looking at their pitching, their rotation is primarily mid rotation guys that are likely to regress. Darvish would become their best SP if signed. Their bullpen is filled with very solid pitchers in all 8 spots, but none of their relievers are as good as Chapman or Davis. They don't have that guy you can throw in in the 8th with a 1 run lead and nail it down in the playoffs, and don't have the ability to get him without shelling out cash or trading from the 25. Their pitching(and team really) are built to make the playoffs the next year or two IF they can stay relatively healthy, but not to win in the playoffs. Their pitching simply will not match up with the nationals/dodgers.

 

I am not going to disagree that they can't match the Dodgers/Nats (only 1 year left for the Nats' run, though).

 

You've mentioned the 31-24 finish for the Brewers as a cause for optimisim...care to know what the Cubs' record was when Schwarber was back mashing, Contreras was back (for some of it), Happ was getting full time, Quintana was on the team, etc in that same timeframe of August 1 and beyond? 36-22.

 

They may be losing Arrieta, but Darvish will fill that void for 2 years (at least).

 

I agree that they're not built to withstand a ton of injuries, but the Cubs have a cause for optimism as well after a rough start to last season.

 

I've long wondered if their plan all along was to go over the luxury tax for 1 or 2 years to bring in Harper after someone like Darvish. Might be the pessimist/fatalist in me, but I do think it's a possibility.

[monty57]

Epstein was asked early in the offseason, and he said that signing either of Arrieta/Darvish wasn't their first choice. I thought that was probably because arby raises in the coming years are going to get really expensive and they have nothing left on the farm to supplement the MLB roster.

 

If they do indeed sign Darvish, it either means that the price difference between him and guys like Cobb was less than expected, or that something went wrong with some of their other plans. Either way, I think that signing Darvish will make it difficult for the Cubs to stay under the luxury tax threshold and give them less room to operate in coming years.

 

At the start of the offseason, I hoped that the Brewers would not sign one of Arrieta/Darvish, and that the Cubs would sign one of them, so I'd have to say this news is good news if it happens.

[KeithStone53151]

Epstein was asked early in the offseason, and he said that signing either of Arrieta/Darvish wasn't their first choice. I thought that was probably because arby raises in the coming years are going to get really expensive and they have nothing left on the farm to supplement the MLB roster.

 

If they do indeed sign Darvish, it either means that the price difference between him and guys like Cobb was less than expected, or that something went wrong with some of their other plans. Either way, I think that signing Darvish will make it difficult for the Cubs to stay under the luxury tax threshold and give them less room to operate in coming years.

 

At the start of the offseason, I hoped that the Brewers would not sign one of Arrieta/Darvish, and that the Cubs would sign one of them, so I'd have to say this news is good news if it happens.

 

I suspect they intended to use some of their excess of position player talent to trade for a starter, but found nobody as interested in those players as they expected. They missed their chance last offseason to sell high on schwarber, I think there's a good chance his bat rebounds but he's still a butcher at any position he plays and really should be DH'ing. I could have seen them trying to trade Happ, Almora, or Caratini but maybe other teams didn't have a ton of interest. I doubt they'd even consider trading Baez or Russell unless it was for someone like Chris Sale, and I don't think Archer qualifies.

[Warning Track Power]

Epstein was asked early in the offseason, and he said that signing either of Arrieta/Darvish wasn't their first choice. I thought that was probably because arby raises in the coming years are going to get really expensive and they have nothing left on the farm to supplement the MLB roster.

 

If they do indeed sign Darvish, it either means that the price difference between him and guys like Cobb was less than expected, or that something went wrong with some of their other plans. Either way, I think that signing Darvish will make it difficult for the Cubs to stay under the luxury tax threshold and give them less room to operate in coming years.

 

At the start of the offseason, I hoped that the Brewers would not sign one of Arrieta/Darvish, and that the Cubs would sign one of them, so I'd have to say this news is good news if it happens.

 

I suspect they intended to use some of their excess of position player talent to trade for a starter, but found nobody as interested in those players as they expected. They missed their chance last offseason to sell high on schwarber, I think there's a good chance his bat rebounds but he's still a butcher at any position he plays and really should be DH'ing. I could have seen them trying to trade Happ, Almora, or Caratini but maybe other teams didn't have a ton of interest. I doubt they'd even consider trading Baez or Russell unless it was for someone like Chris Sale, and I don't think Archer qualifies.

Where they really missed was the idea they could acquire a TOR for Russell/Baez and Schwarber. That combo doesn't get you a Stroman or Archer at this point. Crazy how one year makes such a huge difference and feeds into those wanting to sell high on Santana, Shaw, etc...

[bill hAll Star]

When Cubs are discussed: "They're in bad shape. Nobody wants their (slightly) regressed players and they are running out of money to spend."

 

When Brewers are discussed: "Everything's gonna be great. We aren't going to have any regressions."

 

Do I have that right?

[KeithStone53151]

When Cubs are discussed: "They're in bad shape. Nobody wants their (slightly) regressed players and they are running out of money to spend."

 

When Brewers are discussed: "Everything's gonna be great. We aren't going to have any regressions."

 

Do I have that right?

 

I don't think anyone is even remotely implying that...not in the last handful of posts anyways.

[pacopete4]

When Cubs are discussed: "They're in bad shape. Nobody wants their (slightly) regressed players and they are running out of money to spend."

 

When Brewers are discussed: "Everything's gonna be great. We aren't going to have any regressions."

 

Do I have that right?

 

I don't think anyone is even remotely implying that...not in the last handful of posts anyways.

 

Yeah, this is a huge reach. Huge reach.

[Warning Track Power]

When Cubs are discussed: "They're in bad shape. Nobody wants their (slightly) regressed players and they are running out of money to spend."

 

When Brewers are discussed: "Everything's gonna be great. We aren't going to have any regressions."

 

Do I have that right?

No, you don't have that right. Schwarber and Russell DID regress. Santana, Shaw etc...have NOT regressed as of yet.

[bill hAll Star]

When Cubs are discussed: "They're in bad shape. Nobody wants their (slightly) regressed players and they are running out of money to spend."

 

When Brewers are discussed: "Everything's gonna be great. We aren't going to have any regressions."

 

Do I have that right?

No, you don't have that right. Schwarber and Russell DID regress. Santana, Shaw etc...have NOT regressed as of yet.

 

From the start of June on, Schwarber was one of the better power hitters in baseball. .250/.335/.560 with 17 HR.

 

It's true that maybe he isn't totally wanted right now, but he could still be very valuable for the Cubs, even with neutral/bad/terrible defense (depends what you read/want to believe).

 

I guess I'm just reading a lot of wishful thinking pieces on the Cubs not having the organizational or pitching depth to get it done while people are ready to blindly believe the Brewers still have an 85 win team and that adding a good player is gonna do it.

 

I dunno, there just seems to be a lot of pessimism on the Cubs from a few posters and I think they're not factoring the $ still to spend, guys like Schwarber continuing to develop, or Happ/Contreras blossoming more or being full contributors in a full season.

[Eye Black]

Santana, Shaw etc...have NOT regressed as of yet.

It depends how you define regression. Shaw played in 144 games last season, the last 50 of which weren't very good.

 

I do think we would be better off focusing our discussion here on the Brewers roster construction rather than pontificating about the Cubs demise. I think (hope) we all realize the Cubs are likely a 90+ win team for the next few years with plenty of room for error.

[pacopete4]

uld still be very valuable for the Cubs, even with neutral/bad/terrible defense (depends what you read/want to believe).

 

I guess I'm just reading a lot of wishful thinking pieces on the Cubs not having the organizational or pitching depth to get it done while people are ready to blindly believe the Brewers still have an 85 win team and that adding a good player is gonna do it.

 

I dunno, there just seems to be a lot of pessimism on the Cubs from a few posters and I think they're not factoring the $ still to spend, guys like Schwarber continuing to develop, or Happ/Contreras blossoming more or being full contributors in a full season.

 

It's interesting that you mention depth at the pitching position on the top section to knock down fans who believe the Cubs are in a difficult position but all the players you list on the bottom are all position players you expect to take a jump. Maybe try showing the pitching depth that we are supposed to be scared of if you really want to try making a point.

[bill hAll Star]

uld still be very valuable for the Cubs, even with neutral/bad/terrible defense (depends what you read/want to believe).

 

I guess I'm just reading a lot of wishful thinking pieces on the Cubs not having the organizational or pitching depth to get it done while people are ready to blindly believe the Brewers still have an 85 win team and that adding a good player is gonna do it.

 

I dunno, there just seems to be a lot of pessimism on the Cubs from a few posters and I think they're not factoring the $ still to spend, guys like Schwarber continuing to develop, or Happ/Contreras blossoming more or being full contributors in a full season.

 

It's interesting that you mention depth at the pitching position on the top section to knock down fans who believe the Cubs are in a difficult position but all the players you list on the bottom are all position players you expect to take a jump. Maybe try showing the pitching depth that we are supposed to be scared of if you really want to try making a point.

 

I'm not suggesting they have great pitching depth, but they've got enough resources to get by without it for the time being.

 

Those guys don't even have to take a jump. They just have to play all year. If they sign Darvish, they could have some things go wrong and still win 90-95 games like last year. They had a lot of early season struggles and still comfortably beat us.