Darvish

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Perhaps, but if that is the case, kind of silly. They're just guys wearing the same colored shirts. Even Suppan wasn't a horrific contract until the late half of it. We've had worse, he just became a kind of lightning rod. For about a season and a half he was exactly what the Brewers thought they were getting.

 

I think Lynn is pretty head and shoulders above those guys though.

[brewmann04]

Just because the old teams goes in another direction should not scare off the brewers however I would be a bit more concerned about Jake than Lance .

[nate82]

I don't want to give up a pick to sign Lynn and I don't want to give the Cardinals an extra pick by signing him either.

[pacopete4]

I think I would rather Stearns go find the next Anderson/Nelson type of pitcher at this point. Go get McHugh or someone in that position and let our pitching coach work his magic.

'

 

Some years I would agree, but if you're serious about competing for a title or even the division, you're not taking flyers on average guys unless you absolutely have to. Teams that are rebuilding can afford to do that - and it got us Chase Anderson which is great! And yes, it would be great to strike gold and find a cheap guy that produces like Chase did last year. But when you want to take the next step, you can't afford to grab off the scrapheap and hope for the best. Now is the time to get known quantities like Darvish when you have the resources.

 

Right. But Darvish sounds more like a pipe dream and I don't want any part of Arrieta, Lynn or Cobb. They aren't rotation changing pitchers IMO. I would rather add a guy we feel could be a Chase this season and then, at the break, if we are in a position to add, go ahead and do it. I think part of the reason these pitchers haven't been signed yet is that they really aren't all that good and come with a ton of warts.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't want to give up a pick to sign Lynn and I don't want to give the Cardinals an extra pick by signing him either.

 

Cards get an extra pick if anyone signs him. The pick the Brewers give up wouldn't be the pick the Cards receive. Formula is complicated.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

To say that Arietta or Lynn aren't rotation changing pitchers for the Brewers is nuts to me. There is obviously a risk that they are in decline or will get hurt again, but if they repeated their results or got close to it they're definitely rotation-changers for the Brewers. Either one instantly becomes the best starter they have to open the season.

 

The reason guys aren't getting signed is because owners know the score and are driving contracts down. It's the result of an awful CBA for the players. I don't think it has anything to do with talent at all.

[Itsjuicetime]

Yeah I don't get it either. The guy has had a pretty solid career so far. Plus playoff experience has to account for something. Frankly, I felt he would've been the Brewers top option in the free agent market. Dude has a 2.37 era at MP along with a 10 k/bb average.

[KeithStone53151]

To say that Arietta or Lynn aren't rotation changing pitchers for the Brewers is nuts to me. There is obviously a risk that they are in decline or will get hurt again, but if they repeated their results or got close to it they're definitely rotation-changers for the Brewers. Either one instantly becomes the best starter they have to open the season.

 

The reason guys aren't getting signed is because owners know the score and are driving contracts down. It's the result of an awful CBA for the players. I don't think it has anything to do with talent at all.

 

They are rotation changing primarily because they would be replacing Suter/Guerra/Gallardo primarily. I'm not so sure Lynn/Cobb are better than any of Anderson/Davies/pre-injury Nelson. Both have warts/regression/injury issues just like our three. Arrieta/Darvish are certainly better than any of our guys, but that cost.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think anyone proclaiming Anderson, Davies or Nelson are better than any of those guys has Brewers goggles on. They may have similar ceilings but these guys are far more established and have proven they can do it over and over. There is age risk with them, but not anymore than there is with Anderson (age and health) and Nelson (health). Anderson never pitched remotely close to what he did last year with the Brewers. I hope he does it again, but that's an unknown.

 

FA always has risk. I think Lynn at 4/45 or something is very reasonable.

[MrTPlush]

I don't want to give up a pick to sign Lynn and I don't want to give the Cardinals an extra pick by signing him either.

 

Kind of silly to look at it that way...unless you feel if we don’t sign him no one will sign him until after the draft. They are getting a pick regardless if we sign him or not.

[mlloyd10]

I dont like lynn, but 3/45 and call in a day

[pacopete4]

I think anyone proclaiming Anderson, Davies or Nelson are better than any of those guys has Brewers goggles on.

 

You should probably look at those guys stat lines. They were pretty great a year ago. While you want to insult people that don't believe that Arrieta, Lynn, or Cobb are rotation changes, you really are knocking three guys that are really putting it together. Most fans would dream of having a 24-year-old in Davies put up the stat line he did but since he's basically a middle school student, we dismiss him.

[MrTPlush]

Not wanting Lynn because of bad past experiences with Cardinal pitchers is not only a terrible way to approach anything it is also false. Throw out the Jeff Suppan example because that was pretty dumb before he ever threw a pitch. Not like it was surprising we got terrible results. Kyle Lohse? That turned out pretty stellar. He gave us two great years, well worth the money. Sure he gave us a stinker year, but 2/3 good years when you sign a 34 year old is a dream.

 

Kyle Lohse - 34-36 years old

 

Lance Lynn - 31-34 years old (if he gets 4 year deal)

 

With Lynn the real concern is the spike in HR rate and drop in K rate. If that wasn’t a fluke and his BABIP rises you could have a real big problem on your hands. Still he has seen success consistently over his career.

[pacopete4]

 

With Lynn the real concern is the spike in HR rate and drop in K rate. If that wasn’t a fluke and his BABIP rises you could have a real big problem on your hands. Still he has seen success consistently over his career.

 

And while he was healthy last season, he missed the entire season before that so health plays a factor as well. When it comes to a guy like Lynn, it really is the dollars. How many does it take? You can't overpay for a #3-#4 type pitcher. That is how we get into some of the messes we have in the past.

[TURBO]

Not wanting Lynn because of bad past experiences with Cardinal pitchers is not only a terrible way to approach anything it is also false. Throw out the Jeff Suppan example because that was pretty dumb before he ever threw a pitch. Not like it was surprising we got terrible results. Kyle Lohse? That turned out pretty stellar. He gave us two great years, well worth the money. Sure he gave us a stinker year, but 2/3 good years when you sign a 34 year old is a dream.

 

Kyle Lohse - 34-36 years old

 

Lance Lynn - 31-34 years old (if he gets 4 year deal)

 

With Lynn the real concern is the spike in HR rate and drop in K rate. If that wasn’t a fluke and his BABIP rises you could have a real big problem on your hands. Still he has seen success consistently over his career.

 

I don't see Looper on that list...

[wallus]

 

FA always has risk. I think Lynn at 4/45 or something is very reasonable.

 

If that's all it took, he would have been signed months ago.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think anyone proclaiming Anderson, Davies or Nelson are better than any of those guys has Brewers goggles on.

 

You should probably look at those guys stat lines. They were pretty great a year ago. While you want to insult people that don't believe that Arrieta, Lynn, or Cobb are rotation changes, you really are knocking three guys that are really putting it together. Most fans would dream of having a 24-year-old in Davies put up the stat line he did but since he's basically a middle school student, we dismiss him.

 

What? Lol. I didn't insult anybody. And again, I said their ceilings are about the same. What I said was that those three have zilch as far as a track record of consistent success, which is 100% true. I've looked at their stat lines. The only thing close to an insult is suggesting that I didn't. None of those guys has put together consecutive good seasons and Davies spent a good stretch of last year not just being "meh," but outright miserable.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

And let me make it clear that I like all three of our guys, and I like Davies and

Nelson a lot.

[Boomer5]

The term great used here is a very different definition than mine. No one we are discussing even Davrish is great.

[brewmann04]

The term great used here is a very different definition than mine. No one we are discussing even Davrish is great.

so spot on Boomer

[KeithStone53151]

I think anyone proclaiming Anderson, Davies or Nelson are better than any of those guys has Brewers goggles on.

 

You should probably look at those guys stat lines. They were pretty great a year ago. While you want to insult people that don't believe that Arrieta, Lynn, or Cobb are rotation changes, you really are knocking three guys that are really putting it together. Most fans would dream of having a 24-year-old in Davies put up the stat line he did but since he's basically a middle school student, we dismiss him.

 

What? Lol. I didn't insult anybody. And again, I said their ceilings are about the same. What I said was that those three have zilch as far as a track record of consistent success, which is 100% true. I've looked at their stat lines. The only thing close to an insult is suggesting that I didn't. None of those guys has put together consecutive good seasons and Davies spent a good stretch of last year not just being "meh," but outright miserable.

 

Davies is young and still can improve, heck he's probably more likely to improve than get worse at his age. It's probably slightly more likely that those 2 guys are better this year, but what about 2020 and 2021? I'd put big money on Davies being better those 2 years. Anderson's new found velocity had him post a better season than either of those 2 guys. If he maintains his velocity, he's probably the better pitcher next year and going forward. Velocity is his main question mark. Jimmy really turned a corner last year and his FIP suggests his numbers were worse than they should have been. That said, he's a massive question mark this year with the shoulder. It's probably more likely that those guys are better than Jimmy this year because of the injury, but if Jimmy returns to form he will probably be better than those 2 over the life of their deals.

 

Of those 2, Cobb is the better pitcher in my opinion. Lynn is too fastball heavy for my liking, creates too much risk of regression if he ever loses velocity(which he inevitably will). Cobb has the plus changeup, which generally ages well as changeups in general are so effective. Of the two, I'd take Cobb over Lynn by a longshot...I have 0 interest in Lynn on anything but a 1-2 year deal.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yes, I would rather have Davies in two years, I would possibly rather have him right now. But the question is having both to win right now, not in two years.

 

Adding quality SP is so much more than just plugging in the guy's stats. It's a tremendous load off the rest of the staff and bullpen. It has a trickle down that offensive players don't provide.

 

I don't think Anderson is going to be a 2.74 guy again. I just don't see it, but hope I'm wrong. If he's around 4 I will be OK with him. Nelson healthy, Davies and Anderson is much shakier to me than tossing Lynn or one of these guys in there. It makes it all more solid to me. We don't have an ace, we're not going to have an ace, so loading up on guys that are reliable and give us a chance is our best bet imo.

[jonescm128]

Giving up a draft pick is a huge deal for the Brewers. Smaller market teams need all those high draft picks they can get. Granted, the success rate in the MLB draft isn't great but I still think we need those picks. Is Cobb or Lynn worth losing a draft pick? I think Woodruff has the potential to be similar in his effectiveness. We saw some good things last year that I think he can build on.

 

IMO it is going to be Darvish or a trade. I could probably be convinced to give up a draft pick for Arrieta though, but not Cobb or Lynn.

[Dadbauer]

Yes, I would rather have Davies in two years, I would possibly rather have him right now. But the question is having both to win right now, not in two years.

 

Adding quality SP is so much more than just plugging in the guy's stats. It's a tremendous load off the rest of the staff and bullpen. It has a trickle down that offensive players don't provide.

 

I don't think Anderson is going to be a 2.74 guy again. I just don't see it, but hope I'm wrong. If he's around 4 I will be OK with him. Nelson healthy, Davies and Anderson is much shakier to me than tossing Lynn or one of these guys in there. It makes it all more solid to me. We don't have an ace, we're not going to have an ace, so loading up on guys that are reliable and give us a chance is our best bet imo.

 

We don't have an ESTABLISHED ace, rather. Nelson pitched like one last year. Here's my thing - if we don't have a TOR ace-type guy, we better have some damn reliable #3s throughout the entire rotation. Lynn can be one of those, same with Cobb, etc. If you have Darvish you can get away with your #5 being a bit shaky, but a rotation of 3 and 4 guys is playing with fire.

[TURBO]

but a rotation of 3 and 4 guys is playing with fire.

 

ESPECIALLY once you get to the playoffs, IF you get to the playoffs...