Darvish

[MrTPlush]

Ok his post was possibly poorly constructed, but there is honestly no need to be a giant douche. He is a quality poster here with good thoughts. Try to do the same.

[reillymcshane]

I've deleted a couple of posts in this (and other threads) of people just being jerks. The other mods have done so as well the past week. We are getting tired of all the childish comments. There is talk of banning people - which doesn't happen often - but does happen.

 

We are warning people now.

 

Stop being a jerk to others on this board.

 

That means don't insult someone. That includes things like telling someone they write like a moron, or that they are insane, or that they haven't a clue, or that we're lucky they aren't running the team, etc., etc.

 

Stop the snark. This includes things like, 'Are you serious?' or 'Did you even read the post', etc., etc.

 

Stop the combativeness. Just because someone doesn't agree you doesn't mean you have attack them in snippy and derogatory fashion. Just state your case and be done.

 

Stop the swearing. It's not necessary. If it blocks out your word, then you know it's blocked. Just go change it. And don't try and get around swearing by putting in abbreviations or dashes or whatever. Just be polite and observe the forum rules.

 

And please, if someone is a jerk, simply report them. Don't insult them back.

 

Thank you.

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

So to get back on track, and at the risk of sounding completely naive, how do we know that Brewer World is not legitimate? Is it possible that he does have information that the Brewers will not be SIGNING a TOR pitcher?

 

It also seems to directly dispute Heyman saying he’d be surprised if we didn’t add one of the big 4.

[MrTPlush]

So to get back on track, and at the risk of sounding completely naive, how do we know that Brewer World is not legitimate? Is it possible that he does have information that the Brewers will not be SIGNING a TOR pitcher?

 

It also seems to directly dispute Heyman saying he’d be surprised if we didn’t add one of the big 4.

 

Ok, this is typically how I check. Look at their tweet history of claiming inside info. His is ridiculous. Fake.

[McRibMcLove]

Mark has ran this small market team brilliantly so far.

 

Yes, especially with all the championship banners flying in miller park

 

Seriously, he's maximized profits of his small market team brilliantly. I'm not complaining about him, but he's only done steps 1 and 2 of many to get us a championship. So I'm not going to anoint him as a Brewers Baseball god just yet.

 

The thing that I want to point out to the above comment, is that baseball is slowly changing for the better for the Brewers. In 10-15 years, local TV money will be done. Disney spent a huge amount of money to acquire MLB digital rights because mlb.com will be the major revenue stream in 10-15 year and there will be limited revenues to none from local TV contracts at that time. That automatically levels part of the field. Where things will still be "small market" for the Brewers are in the revenues from attendance, while we won't be able to compete with some of the large markets, the one thing Brewers fans have shown is that they will support their team at the turnstile and that will allow the Brewers to compete with many of the mid-market teams and out-compete many of the small market teams. I hope that means that while we still emphasize building through the farm, we will have a chance to sign a Yu Darvish when the opportunity arises. Unfortunately, that may not be this year, but I have lived through the growing pains of the small market brewers and I really am excited that we will soon be entering a new day when competition approaches a much more level playing field. The fact we are even discussing it today is already encouraging. Cain, Yellich, and a SP for Santana and this is close to a perfect offseason, IMHO.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think Darvish would prefer going back to the Dodgers or the Rangers.

 

But Yu can't always get what Yu want

 

But if Yu try sometimes, Yu find Yu get what Yu need.

 

A+ stuff, gentlemen

[3and2Fastball]

We've been to the playoffs twice in Mark's time... During both the 2008 and 2011 playoff runs, we heard about payroll limits. We had Yuni B as a shortstop in the playoffs! I'm not sure I want to open up a can of worms in rehashing the Macha or Roenicke hirings or the way too long leash on Melvin, or the meddling in getting taken by Suppan's agent etc, but to me saying that Mark has been brilliant is a complete stretch. Just because you are better than Wendy Selig does not equate to brilliant.

 

We are in a unique position where teams that would usually outbid us are holding back in order to get under luxury tax limits for next year's free agent free for all. There is no reason why the Brewers cannot afford to outbid everyone for Darvish or Arrieta. The franchise will survive. Mark and his buddies will still be filthy rich...

[SandyTolan]

I've deleted a couple of posts in this (and other threads) of people just being jerks. The other mods have done so as well the past week. We are getting tired of all the childish comments. There is talk of banning people - which doesn't happen often - but does happen.

 

We are warning people now.

 

Stop being a jerk to others on this board.

 

That means don't insult someone. That includes things like telling someone they write like a moron, or that they are insane, or that they haven't a clue, or that we're lucky they aren't running the team, etc., etc.

 

Stop the snark. This includes things like, 'Are you serious?' or 'Did you even read the post', etc., etc.

 

Stop the combativeness. Just because someone doesn't agree you doesn't mean you have attack them in snippy and derogatory fashion. Just state your case and be done.

 

Stop the swearing. It's not necessary. If it blocks out your word, then you know it's blocked. Just go change it. And don't try and get around swearing by putting in abbreviations or dashes or whatever. Just be polite and observe the forum rules.

 

And please, if someone is a jerk, simply report them. Don't insult them back.

 

Thank you.

 

Thank YOU. Agree completely.

[Point Beer Is Best]

I must have missed the snarky posts, but I want to make a point clear to those that believe that Mark must have lots of cash to spend on payroll because the franchise has appreciated in value:

 

You don’t realize the gain on your investment until you sell a percentage of your equity. Simply put, the franchise value increasing does not put more “cash” in the pockets of the owner. If you bought a house for $100k and ten years later it’s worth $200k... do you have an extra $100k in your pockets? No - you don’t realize that gain unless you sell the asset.

 

This is why you see teams like the Marlins, Mets and even the Yankees looking for minority owners. The franchise value makes up the vast majority of their owners net worth. They are “cash poor” so in order to pull cash out you either have to get super creative (fraudulent, ala Frank McCourt and the Dodgers) or sell the team (I guess also Frank McCourt and the Dodgers are an example ).

[SRB]

The revenue figures posted in this or another thread recently show that teams use the "small market" thing as an excuse to suppress payroll. The Brewers ownership group could spend a lot more on payroll if they wanted to (and teams like the Yankees could spend much much more than that - the only current barrier being the luxury tax threshold).

[SandyTolan]

Heyman does some pretty interesting handicapping of who Darvish will sign with. He says the Cubs appear to be low-balling, the Dodgers and Yanks have luxury tax issues (plus LAD internal management seems to be divided in part because of the World Series), the Twins "don't look like a favorite," and neither do the Rangers, who are "hard to consider" a favorite. The Brewers, he said, "quite likely" appear to be outbidding the Cubs, who "seem to be hoping that Darvish will choose them for reasons that are not economic."

 

So, the Crew is very much still in the running. Article here: https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-mlb-notes-betts-arb-win-could-affect-others/

 

But of course this could all be that the Brewers are being used just to drive up bids for Darvish, as others have said.

[iKezims]

So on Twitter, Brewerworld (who broke the Cain signing story) is saying no big free agent SP signing...

 

I feel as though we need to have a sticked post to note this:

 

BrewerWorld is a parody account. Not serious. Don't take the account seriously.

 

Still don’t get how they are a parody account.

 

Take my word fwiw, but I know who runs it and it’s definitely not to be taken serious at all. They just post recycled news to build hype. Basically playing on all our need for rumor news, so if they post the freshest stuff people confuse accuracy with excitement.

[nate82]

Is Darvish really that superior to Arrieta? If both are 28M a year players for example, but it takes 5/140 for Yu and 3/84 for Arrieta, I'll take Arrieta.

 

Posted this elsewhere but Darvish has under 3ERA in 63% of his games in wins/no decisions. A 2.35 ERA and 6.12ERA in the losses only 37% of starts.

Arrieta has a 1.6ERA in 46% of his starts of Wins only. 24.6% of his starts of no decisions is a 4.04 ERA. Losses at 7.17.

 

Taking the majority of Arrieta's starts his no-decision/losses 54% of the time he's a 5.36 ERA pitcher.

 

Yeah Darvish is a far better pitcher.

 

 

 

You just can't take his no-decision/losses and discount the wins and say he is this 54% of the time. Your analysis is off base and you have no context to prove that either Arrieta or Darvish are the players you are claiming they are by taking their no decisions and their losses. Context matters here are you taking into account Arrieta's earlier years where he wasn't as good with the Orioles? How many years are you looking at here? If you are just looking at a couple of years this is basically useless information which even if you take the players whole career this is useless information.

[Outlander]

So on Twitter, Brewerworld (who broke the Cain signing story) is saying no big free agent SP signing...

 

I feel as though we need to have a sticked post to note this:

 

BrewerWorld is a parody account. Not serious. Don't take the account seriously.

 

 

Take my word fwiw, but I know who runs it and it’s definitely not to be taken serious at all. They just post recycled news to build hype. Basically playing on all our need for rumor news, so if they post the freshest stuff people confuse accuracy with excitement.

I would tend to agree with you but what's the deal with knowing Johnsonville was taking over the day before it was announced and that Cain was going to sign a 5 year deal.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Regarding paper profits vs. actual cash flows...

 

Mark A & the ownership group have killed it on the Brewers. Not only have they increased the value of the franchise 3-4x, they used a fair amount of debt to buy the team in the first place. That means their equity profits may be well north of that. A great investment, well structured and timed. Kudos to them, but as of now it is all a paper gain.

 

That being said, it's not clear these guys have the wealth outside the Brewers to chip in 10s of millions of dollars on an annual basis to fund cash flow deficits. They could probably tack on more debt, but that's risky. I think it's asking a lot to have these guys run in the red for an extended period to fund the club. Mark A is wealthy for sure compared to all of us, but he's not Paul Allen wealthy. When it comes to funding a big deficit...you need to be THAT wealthy with a big stash of cash.

 

Mark A has never shown anything but a constant drive to win. Yes, the Brewers have financial constraints but he has pushed it hard when he thought they had a real chance. This team did get 2 games away from a World Series. By many accounts, he had to be convinced by Melvin, etc to take a step back and retool. I think we'd all agree it was a wise decision. I'm sure they saved up some dough that could be tacked on when needed to get that extra piece. I've got tremendous faith in this ownership group they will do everything they can within the very real constraints to bring a winner to Milwaukee.

[brewmann04]

I don't have any issues because I know Mark wants to win and has no issue with the cash.

[tigerbrew]

The owner Mark A can very well afford to sign Darvish if he really wanted to, time for him to step up and get Yu signed. The Brewers rotation should be set for the season with Darvish in the fold.

[brewcrewdue80]

Is Darvish really that superior to Arrieta? If both are 28M a year players for example, but it takes 5/140 for Yu and 3/84 for Arrieta, I'll take Arrieta.

 

Posted this elsewhere but Darvish has under 3ERA in 63% of his games in wins/no decisions. A 2.35 ERA and 6.12ERA in the losses only 37% of starts.

Arrieta has a 1.6ERA in 46% of his starts of Wins only. 24.6% of his starts of no decisions is a 4.04 ERA. Losses at 7.17.

 

Taking the majority of Arrieta's starts his no-decision/losses 54% of the time he's a 5.36 ERA pitcher.

 

Yeah Darvish is a far better pitcher.

 

 

 

You just can't take his no-decision/losses and discount the wins and say he is this 54% of the time. Your analysis is off base and you have no context to prove that either Arrieta or Darvish are the players you are claiming they are by taking their no decisions and their losses. Context matters here are you taking into account Arrieta's earlier years where he wasn't as good with the Orioles? How many years are you looking at here? If you are just looking at a couple of years this is basically useless information which even if you take the players whole career this is useless information.

 

I will return to write more, but this is a Career post of stats.

 

A career post of stats where taking the no decisions & Lost games in Arrieta games (54% of his Career games) results to a 5+ ERA. These are stats where most likely the outcome will be a loss. 46% of his starts are great being wins. But if you take that to 5 seasons at 30 starts a year he's statistically giving you 69 winnable games and 81 likely no-dec/losses.

 

Darvish at 63% winnable games in 5 seasons at 30Starts each is 95 most likely wins to 55 likely no-dec/losses.

 

Huh? What? Look a big divide in games is the 3runs scored vs 4 runs scored. Well theres your <3 to >4 Games started percentage by the two.

 

Arrieta is either very good or a #4/5 starter. Darvish mixes far more ace games than a #5. This is career numbers. And Arrietas are on a decline the last two seasons already being worse.

[Jenkins5]

Is Darvish really worth the contract he is holding out for? Mark A has the money but when does it become a bad investment? Just because you can outbid everyone doesn’t mean it is the right choice.Darvish is a real good pitcher. I’m not saying he is not but I’m not sure his value will exceed the ransom it is appearing he is holding out for. He is just kind of playing everyone. It’s like every week he said to be making his final decision but then he doesn’t.

 

The whole pitcher market is on stand still until he finally decides. Brewers or not, I hope he just picks so the market can start flowing finally.

[brooks_quichenick]

The revenue figures posted in this or another thread recently show that teams use the "small market" thing as an excuse to suppress payroll. The Brewers ownership group could spend a lot more on payroll if they wanted to (and teams like the Yankees could spend much much more than that - the only current barrier being the luxury tax threshold).

 

Exactly. All MLB owners could spend way more on payroll, but they don't because rich guys really, really like to continue accumulating vast wealth, and they especially hate having to pay the labor (players) that creates all of their wealth. They may say publicly that they "really want to win", and I don't doubt that some truly do, but for every single one of them, the #1 priority is easy capital accumulation.

 

Get taxpayers to fund your stadiums, charge them an arm and a leg for admission with "demand based pricing", concessions, & merch, say all the right things about how you care about winning so much, and then just watch the cash flow in.

 

 

Anyways, back on topic, I really hope Yu signs with the Crew.

[Dadbauer]

The more this drags out, I think the more I find myself wanting to sign Yu. Going into the offseason thinking it would be a normal offseason, I probably would have said I didn't want to sign Darvish, but now I think it was more like I thought it wasn't a possibility so I didn't bother thinking about it. Now that it (seems like it) is a possibility, I'm 100% hoping that they get him. Fingers crossed this holdout means that the Brewers have the biggest offer on the table and Darvish is just counting down waiting for someone else to (hopefully not) budge.

[MrTPlush]

I would tend to agree with you but what's the deal with knowing Johnsonville was taking over the day before it was announced and that Cain was going to sign a 5 year deal.

 

 

[sarcasm]Hey Outlander! I was just contacted by a Somalian prince who is giving away all of his wealth! He let me choose one other person to get $1,000,000! I think you are the perfect fit. All I need is your bank account number and routing number so he can send the money to your account![/sarcasm]

 

[jonescm128]

I would tend to agree with you but what's the deal with knowing Johnsonville was taking over the day before it was announced and that Cain was going to sign a 5 year deal.

 

 

I think anyone with have a brain could have called the Johnsonville deal.

[82brewcrew82]

I would tend to agree with you but what's the deal with knowing Johnsonville was taking over the day before it was announced and that Cain was going to sign a 5 year deal.

 

 

[sarcasm]Hey Outlander! I was just contacted by a Somalian prince who is giving away all of his wealth! He let me choose one other person to get $1,000,000! I think you are the perfect fit. All I need is your bank account number and routing number so he can send the money to your account![/sarcasm]

I know I shouldn't have laughed but.......

[Jkromb]

I think you just give him 5 Years at $150M.. Yeah, it sucks, but it guarantees you he signs today, instead of having to wait and then inevitably losing him..