Darvish

[tmwiese55]

I agree with Adam's money comparison there if that is what the options are. But I feel like Cobb might be the best value of all these options. Archer will cost a ton of prospects. Arrieta/Yu will cost a ton of money. Cobb might be in that sweet spot of 15ish per year instead of 25-30 and is a few years younger. though he had a TJ surgery and last year was his first back. Maybe that keeps the prices and years down.

[Eye Black]

Interesting how the Cubs and Red Sox are listed at the exact same revenue, down to the penny. Something's amiss there...

 

Tigers/Braves and Orioles/Dbacks are also exactly the same figures. Must be some sort of major guesstimations going on, there's no way those figures are real with that many teams being tied down to the penny.

Here is the Forbes MLB Team Values and Revenue Listings that it appears was used. The Team Revenues are listed in the second column in from the right.

[bluescale]

Here is the Forbes MLB Team Values and Revenue Listings that it appears was used. The Team Revenues are listed in the second column in from the right.

 

I wonder how those numbers got extrapolated down to the penny.

[3and2Fastball]

I agree with Adam's money comparison there if that is what the options are. But I feel like Cobb might be the best value of all these options. Archer will cost a ton of prospects. Arrieta/Yu will cost a ton of money. Cobb might be in that sweet spot of 15ish per year instead of 25-30 and is a few years younger. though he had a TJ surgery and last year was his first back. Maybe that keeps the prices and years down.

 

Cobb's stuff is electric when he is on... I just get concerned about his durability. But without access to any of these pitcher's medicals I should probably just trust that the Brewers front office is doing their due diligence on such matters.

 

I have my preferences, but as long as we upgrade the top of the rotation with someone, whether that is Darvish, Arrieta or Cobb, I'll be happy. Or if we trade for Archer or Stroman etc... Lance Lynn could help the team, too, but isn't a TOR guy....

 

We just need more pitching!

[anglotiger]

 

No one knows if Arrieta is better or not.

 

I would argue that the Cubs clearly think that Darvish is more desirable than Arrieta at this point in time, and that they ought to be in the best position to know...

 

We're talking about a franchise that *thinks* Kyle Schwarber is a left fielder and paid Jason Heyward a gazillion dollars.

 

Ha! Yes, you're quite right, hence the "ought to be" and not "are". To play devil's advocate here , what if they know that his drop in effectiveness earlier in the season was due to an injury or wear and tear which will eventually require surgery...and hence their lack of enthusiasm for resigning him...?

[coolhandluke121]

I would stay the eff away from Yu at this point. It doesn't seem like he wants to be a Brewer.

 

According to...?

 

Did you read HH's update? He's asking for best offers and then balking when he gets them. I'd bet pretty good money that he's trying to get LAD to put in a good offer. Call it a stereotype if you want, but Asian players do tend to prefer the west coast. Darvish should have taken the best offer if wasn't resistant to coming to the midwest. He's risking a lot of money by playing this game. I personally hope the Brewers drop out of the mix.

 

I don't understand why you don't hear about Arrieta. He should be worth just as much as Yu. Is he just asking way too much? He won't get a Greinke offer in this market.

[SRB]

Alex Cobb is a disaster contract waiting to happen. You all may be remembering his pre-injury stuff, which no longer exists. I have zero interest in Lance Lynn either. This "Big 4" free agent thing seems like pure marketing.

 

If we need to sign another SP other than Darvish (or maybe Arrieta, though he is a little concerning too), I'd rather just take a chance on a guy like Jaime Garcia.

[SRB]

I would stay the eff away from Yu at this point. It doesn't seem like he wants to be a Brewer.

 

According to...?

 

Did you read HH's update? He's asking for best offers and then balking when he gets them. I'd bet pretty good money that he's trying to get LAD to put in a good offer. Call it a stereotype if you want, but Asian players do tend to prefer the west coast. Darvish should have taken the best offer if wasn't resistant to coming to the midwest. He's risking a lot of money by playing this game. I personally hope the Brewers drop out of the mix.

 

I don't understand why you don't hear about Arrieta. He should be worth just as much as Yu. Is he just asking way too much? He won't get a Greinke offer in this market.

 

Virtually every player in the major leagues prefers the west coast, it has nothing to do with him being Japanese. If him and his agent had received an offer on the level they were expecting he would have signed by now (just like all the other big free agents). There's nothing wrong with playing hardball and putting the pressure on the billionaire owners to pony up the money.

 

Does Lorenzo Cain hate Milwaukee because he waited to sign until January?

[danzig6767]

Is Darvish really that superior to Arrieta? If both are 28M a year players for example, but it takes 5/140 for Yu and 3/84 for Arrieta, I'll take Arrieta.

I get the premise, but it makes you wonder why the Cubs seem to have such tepid interest in resigning Arrieta given they've seem him up close?

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/01/10/jake-arrieta-free-agency-value

[RockCoCougars]

I get the premise, but it makes you wonder why the Cubs seem to have such tepid interest in resigning Arrieta given they've seem him up close?

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/01/10/jake-arrieta-free-agency-value

 

Exactly. I'd rather take my chances with Lynn or Cobb along with the extra $50-60 MM or so. Heck, you could probably sign both for roughly the same price as Darvish or Arrietta.

[Sixto]

Ahh yes. Athletes on their final contracts. They want the sun and the moon and unicorns, but most of all they want money. Problem is, after signing that final contract, motivation is zero. I'm sure there may be some personal pride, but the seasons are long, and the retirement light at the end of the tunnel becomes brighter and brighter. This guy hasn't dreamed about winning the World Series. There is no worry about performing for the next contract. Retirement contracts worth gobs of money scare the sh*t out of me

[brooks_quichenick]

Ahh yes. Athletes on their final contracts. They want the sun and the moon and unicorns, but most of all they want money. Problem is, after signing that final contract, motivation is zero. I'm sure there may be some personal pride, but the seasons are long, and the retirement light at the end of the tunnel becomes brighter and brighter. This guy hasn't dreamed about winning the World Series. There is no worry about performing for the next contract. Retirement contracts worth gobs of money scare the sh*t out of me

 

Of course they want money. You like being paid for your labor too I assume? As it stands now, free agency is the one chance a player has to actually receive what they are worth and deserve, since the years of team control and arb years suppresses their wages in their prime years and ownership reaps huge profits off of their labor in that time. And this is just the Major League portion of their career, most players grind away in the minors for years making next to nothing. Don’t blame players for wanting the money they rightly deserve just because the system is set up to prevent them from receiving that money until the downslope of their career (generally).

[Fear The Chorizo]

Some of the FA game also has to do with keeping the players union happy by not accepting an offer that sets future precedent for less years or less annual value for a perceived player value at the top of the market. There are multiple parties playing chicken.

 

I'm starting to wonder if all the buildup to next year's free agent bonanza will result in a talent like Bryce Harper sitting out a year, because his asking price will be so outrageous teams won't pony up and his team will refuse to budge. I mean, will any team really want to be roughly 25% towards the luxury tax threshold every year for at least the next 4-5 seasons (assuming player opt outs baked into a harper deal that would allow him to enter free agency again after a few seasons) with the contract of one corner OF?

[coolhandluke121]

 

Does Lorenzo Cain hate Milwaukee because he waited to sign until January?

 

No, he got the best offer and took it. Yu got his best offer and hesitated. He doesn't want to come to the midwest. You say everyone prefers the west coast, but it's not a deal-breaker for most of them. It appears to be with Yu. There's all kinds of red flags here, including his age and sense of entitlement. I'm not touching it. I'm confident that Stearns will remain disciplined, but the news of them coming back and matching the Cubs' offer is concerning. You gotta have a number and stick to it. Yu is not worth a mega-deal. They will get better value if they're patient. I don't even care if they don't get a starter. Spend all that extra money on one of the best offenses this century if that's what the free agent market gives you, or save the money for trades. Just be patient. Yu and Archer look like terrible targets at this point.

[coolhandluke121]

Ahh yes. Athletes on their final contracts. They want the sun and the moon and unicorns, but most of all they want money. Problem is, after signing that final contract, motivation is zero. I'm sure there may be some personal pride, but the seasons are long, and the retirement light at the end of the tunnel becomes brighter and brighter. This guy hasn't dreamed about winning the World Series. There is no worry about performing for the next contract. Retirement contracts worth gobs of money scare the sh*t out of me

 

Of course they want money. You like being paid for your labor too I assume? As it stands now, free agency is the one chance a player has to actually receive what they are worth and deserve, since the years of team control and arb years suppresses their wages in their prime years and ownership reaps huge profits off of their labor in that time. And this is just the Major League portion of their career, most players grind away in the minors for years making next to nothing. Don’t blame players for wanting the money they rightly deserve just because the system is set up to prevent them from receiving that money until the downslope of their career (generally).

 

You're missing the point completely. It's not about judging the players, it's about wanting your team to make smart decisions. I really hope the Cubs outbid the Brewers by $5 and Yu takes it because that will only help the Brewers in the long run, and it won't even take as long as you think.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't even care if they don't get a starter. Spend all that extra money on one of the best offenses this century if that's what the free agent market gives you, or save the money for trades. Just be patient. Yu and Archer look like terrible targets at this point.

 

It has been pretty firmly established by multiple sources that "stand pat" is not an option whatsoever, so advocating for that is a fools errand. Obviously Stearns sees a need to strengthen the rotation, and he will find some way to do it. It's a matter of who they get, and what they give up.

[bill hAll Star]

I don't even care if they don't get a starter. Spend all that extra money on one of the best offenses this century if that's what the free agent market gives you, or save the money for trades. Just be patient. Yu and Archer look like terrible targets at this point.

 

It has been pretty firmly established by multiple sources that "stand pat" is not an option whatsoever, so advocating for that is a fools errand. Obviously Stearns sees a need to strengthen the rotation, and he will find some way to do it. It's a matter of who they get, and what they give up.

 

Some also think that getting desperate to empty out everything else we've built to potentially raise a 2nd place banner (yes, we'd be in the mix) is also a fool's errand.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Some also think that getting desperate to empty out everything else we've built to potentially raise a 2nd place banner (yes, we'd be in the mix) is also a fool's errand.

 

Perhaps it is ... but that doesn't change the fact that the team has decided that it is a contender, and Stearns is going to construct the roster with that in mind, whether we like it or not. Pitching acquisitions are going to happen, very likely in the next couple weeks. Instead of arguing whether they should happen, which probably isn't feasible at this point, we should be arguing who they will be.

[bill hAll Star]

Some also think that getting desperate to empty out everything else we've built to potentially raise a 2nd place banner (yes, we'd be in the mix) is also a fool's errand.

 

Perhaps it is ... but that doesn't change the fact that the team has decided that it is a contender, and Stearns is going to construct the roster with that in mind, whether we like it or not. Pitching acquisitions are going to happen, very likely in the next couple weeks. Instead of arguing whether they should happen, which probably isn't feasible at this point, we should be arguing who they will be.

 

Something may happen, but if the demands are relatively high on Archer, it'll be something like Santana for Salazar with something else thrown in to even it out. I'd be fine with that.

[coolhandluke121]

I don't even care if they don't get a starter. Spend all that extra money on one of the best offenses this century if that's what the free agent market gives you, or save the money for trades. Just be patient. Yu and Archer look like terrible targets at this point.

 

It has been pretty firmly established by multiple sources that "stand pat" is not an option whatsoever, so advocating for that is a fools errand. Obviously Stearns sees a need to strengthen the rotation, and he will find some way to do it. It's a matter of who they get, and what they give up.

 

I didn't say "stand pat", I said make sure you're getting good value, which Yu and Archer are not. Maybe you could get Moustakas and Walker for the same price with only one comp pick, move Shaw to 1b, trade Thames, and trade Santana for Salazar+. Just spit-balling obviously but the point is that you have to "take what the defense gives you" and be patient, and I'm confident Stearns will do that.

 

Look how many people got frustrated when they didn't sign any $6-8m relievers. Cain only cost $16m and is probably worth more than any 3 of those relievers combined. I mean he didn't get much more than Wade Davis, did he? They will be disciplined and wait for good opportunities, which Yu and Archer are not.

[brooks_quichenick]

Ahh yes. Athletes on their final contracts. They want the sun and the moon and unicorns, but most of all they want money. Problem is, after signing that final contract, motivation is zero. I'm sure there may be some personal pride, but the seasons are long, and the retirement light at the end of the tunnel becomes brighter and brighter. This guy hasn't dreamed about winning the World Series. There is no worry about performing for the next contract. Retirement contracts worth gobs of money scare the sh*t out of me

 

Of course they want money. You like being paid for your labor too I assume? As it stands now, free agency is the one chance a player has to actually receive what they are worth and deserve, since the years of team control and arb years suppresses their wages in their prime years and ownership reaps huge profits off of their labor in that time. And this is just the Major League portion of their career, most players grind away in the minors for years making next to nothing. Don’t blame players for wanting the money they rightly deserve just because the system is set up to prevent them from receiving that money until the downslope of their career (generally).

 

You're missing the point completely. It's not about judging the players, it's about wanting your team to make smart decisions. I really hope the Cubs outbid the Brewers by $5 and Yu takes it because that will only help the Brewers in the long run, and it won't even take as long as you think.

 

Well, I completely disagree that your rival adding a great player to their roster is somehow good for your team. I want to watch great players on my team. This concern over millions of dollars that aren’t yours is so asinine from a fan perspective. All of these owners can afford to pay their players, you don’t have to cape for ownership by hoping they somehow can pay great players less than they’re worth to increase their profit margin.

[bill hAll Star]

 

You're missing the point completely. It's not about judging the players, it's about wanting your team to make smart decisions. I really hope the Cubs outbid the Brewers by $5 and Yu takes it because that will only help the Brewers in the long run, and it won't even take as long as you think.

 

Well, I completely disagree that your rival adding a great player to their roster is somehow good for your team. I want to watch great players on my team. This concern over millions of dollars that aren’t yours is so asinine from a fan perspective. All of these owners can afford to pay their players, you don’t have to cape for ownership by hoping they somehow can pay great players less than they’re worth to increase their profit margin.

 

I'm in the middle here. I do think that the Cubs signing huge contracts may hurt them down the road, but I think they've managed this thing so well that they can tread water on some for a while and Darvish will help them for at the very least 1 year, probably 3, which is in the Brewers' window.

 

That said, I do want the Brewers to make smart decisions. Even if Archer helps the current vibe of "win now," I am not sure it's the smartest move. Darvish I believe might be.

[KeithStone53151]

I don't even care if they don't get a starter. Spend all that extra money on one of the best offenses this century if that's what the free agent market gives you, or save the money for trades. Just be patient. Yu and Archer look like terrible targets at this point.

 

It has been pretty firmly established by multiple sources that "stand pat" is not an option whatsoever, so advocating for that is a fools errand. Obviously Stearns sees a need to strengthen the rotation, and he will find some way to do it. It's a matter of who they get, and what they give up.

 

I didn't say "stand pat", I said make sure you're getting good value, which Yu and Archer are not. Maybe you could get Moustakas and Walker for the same price with only one comp pick, move Shaw to 1b, trade Thames, and trade Santana for Salazar+. Just spit-balling obviously but the point is that you have to "take what the defense gives you" and be patient, and I'm confident Stearns will do that.

 

Look how many people got frustrated when they didn't sign any $6-8m relievers. Cain only cost $16m and is probably worth more than any 3 of those relievers combined. I mean he didn't get much more than Wade Davis, did he? They will be disciplined and wait for good opportunities, which Yu and Archer are not.

 

I don't think anybody is anticipating we don't add a 5th and open the season with Suter starting, well maybe clancy but he'd be it. Some people think we add 2 high end pieces. Some think we make 1 trade, some think 1 FA signing. The beauty is we still have flexibility to make a few moves that can help us. I think whatever move we make needs to be very high end. Stroman, darvish, maybe arrieta. Woodruff could be packaged with Santana in this trade if we end up adding 2 starters, we should also consider looking at 3 way trade options as there are a few teams with good SP that are rebuilding and would want prospects in value versus getting Santana.

[brewcrewdue80]

Is Darvish really that superior to Arrieta? If both are 28M a year players for example, but it takes 5/140 for Yu and 3/84 for Arrieta, I'll take Arrieta.

 

Posted this elsewhere but Darvish has under 3ERA in 63% of his games in wins/no decisions. A 2.35 ERA and 6.12ERA in the losses only 37% of starts.

Arrieta has a 1.6ERA in 46% of his starts of Wins only. 24.6% of his starts of no decisions is a 4.04 ERA. Losses at 7.17.

 

Taking the majority of Arrieta's starts his no-decision/losses 54% of the time he's a 5.36 ERA pitcher.

 

Yeah Darvish is a far better pitcher.

[tmwiese55]

Best case for the Brewers for if he signed elsewhere is clearly back to TX. Cubs obviously makes them stronger the next couple years while we're trying to win. LAD would also be really strong with him and make them so tough in the playoffs. Reports are that his preferences are LAD and TX. We should all be hoping for TX.