Darvish

[SandyTolan]

HH19, a question (and sorry if you've answered this elsewhere)

 

Recently, as I recall, you mentioned that your source said unequivocally that the Brewers were out on Darvish and that he almost certainly was going to the Cubs.

 

This is not to challenge you, but I'm curious: What do you think changed, with your/your source's analysis? I know, stuff happens...but I'm curious to know what you think went down.

 

As I was told, Darvish's camp was looking for final offers. Brewer's gave theirs and then Cubs came in and exceeded Brewer's offer. I/we assumed that Cubs would get Darvish as their were no other offers coming in....at all. This went on for a few days. Darvish's camp just sat tight and is still sitting.

 

2 days ago Brewer's came back and matched Cubs. Brewer's don't know yet if Cubs or even other teams have matched. Waiting on Darvish's side now. And the thought from Baseball execs is that if Darvish keeps these teams waiting to much longer that they will A) sign other pitchers decreasing the need for Darvish. B) Teams will withdraw their offers as teams don't want to be jerked around. And because of the latter statement. A Decision is "expected" by Monday. As all teams on Darvish are getting impatient and even a little perturbed.

 

And my source is not aware of where the bidding/numbers/years is at. But..........it's going to be extremely pricey!!!

 

Very interesting, thanks.

[KeithStone53151]

Re: the Brewers "matching" the Cubs offer.... Wouldn't the Brewers need to exceed the Cubs offer? Playing for the Cubs allows for much more potential in endorsement deals....

 

Illinois has higher state taxes, a 3ish% difference in state tax on say $140 million is substantial. If you went to the Cubs board you'd see they think Darvish is going to sign with them for 4/$90...LOL. $120-130 is probably the low end of what he might get.

[3and2Fastball]

Good point re state taxes. Hadn't thought of that. Thank you

[82brewcrew82]

Welcome to negotiations in the Big Boys Club.

I don't doubt that. The point is, the Brewers caved. They tried to play hard ball and lost. They blinked first and that doesn't bode well in these or future negotiations.

 

This stuff happens all the time actually.

 

Agents and GM's lie more than car salesman. This I was told by more than a few people in MLB.

I've found that if you enter the process well informed and well prepared, car salesmen are not all that untruthful. Opportunistic, very much so, especially with those who are unprepared and ill informed.

 

I would suspect a high degree of trust is an important part of these negotiations otherwise nothing would ever get done.

[MrTPlush]

Re: the Brewers "matching" the Cubs offer.... Wouldn't the Brewers need to exceed the Cubs offer? Playing for the Cubs allows for much more potential in endorsement deals....

 

Illinois has higher state taxes, a 3ish% difference in state tax on say $140 million is substantial. If you went to the Cubs board you'd see they think Darvish is going to sign with them for 4/$90...LOL. $120-130 is probably the low end of what he might get.

 

Actually...no. A 3% difference(I went 7%/10%) is an incredible $2mil difference on $70mil. Only half his contract is made in Chicago/Milwaukee.

[bill hAll Star]

Re: the Brewers "matching" the Cubs offer.... Wouldn't the Brewers need to exceed the Cubs offer? Playing for the Cubs allows for much more potential in endorsement deals....

 

Illinois has higher state taxes, a 3ish% difference in state tax on say $140 million is substantial. If you went to the Cubs board you'd see they think Darvish is going to sign with them for 4/$90...LOL. $120-130 is probably the low end of what he might get.

 

Actually...no. A 3% difference(I went 7%/10%) is an incredible $2mil difference on $70mil. Only half his contract is made in Chicago/Milwaukee.

 

On top of that, if this was truly the breaking point for Darvish, the Cubs would probably bump their offer up by a million or two to basically make it even. I can't imagine that being the difference. Florida vs. California, yes, I could see that.

[KeithStone53151]

Re: the Brewers "matching" the Cubs offer.... Wouldn't the Brewers need to exceed the Cubs offer? Playing for the Cubs allows for much more potential in endorsement deals....

 

Illinois has higher state taxes, a 3ish% difference in state tax on say $140 million is substantial. If you went to the Cubs board you'd see they think Darvish is going to sign with them for 4/$90...LOL. $120-130 is probably the low end of what he might get.

 

Actually...no. A 3% difference(I went 7%/10%) is an incredible $2mil difference on $70mil. Only half his contract is made in Chicago/Milwaukee.

 

I didn't realize they split it like that. Close to $1 million/year is a bit more substantial than close to $500k/year. Maybe that money is irrelevant at the end of the day anyways.

 

As much as players whine about slow free agency and teams not being competitive, don't they have themselves to blame to some degree for taking lesser contracts to play on winning teams? Apparently Duensing was offered $10.5/2 years but took $7. Heyward took less money to go to the Cubs(thank goodness!). There are tons of examples of this, no different than the NBA with Golden State acquiring a dream team and the old big 3 with the Heat. The good players will take discounts to create super teams, and with those factors in play the players wonder why certain teams don't bother trying to sign big free agents?

[bluescale]

 

Interesting how the Cubs and Red Sox are listed at the exact same revenue, down to the penny. Something's amiss there...

[JohnBriggs12]

Re: the Brewers "matching" the Cubs offer.... Wouldn't the Brewers need to exceed the Cubs offer? Playing for the Cubs allows for much more potential in endorsement deals....

 

Illinois has higher state taxes, a 3ish% difference in state tax on say $140 million is substantial. If you went to the Cubs board you'd see they think Darvish is going to sign with them for 4/$90...LOL. $120-130 is probably the low end of what he might get.

 

Actually...no. A 3% difference(I went 7%/10%) is an incredible $2mil difference on $70mil. Only half his contract is made in Chicago/Milwaukee.

 

You're both wrong. Illinois has a flat 4.95% state income tax. It's the same rate regardless of income level. I believe Wisconsin's top rate is 7.65%.

 

Now the leading Democrat is running on instituting a progressive income tax if he's elected governor and if that happens you can bet the brackets will start at the current rate and go upward for higher incomes. We here in Illinois get soaked on sales taxes and property taxes but as far as keeping more of his money, for now Darvish is better off a Cub.

[KeithStone53151]

You're both wrong. Illinois has a flat 4.95% state income tax. It's the same rate regardless of income level. I believe Wisconsin's top rate is 7.65%.

 

Now the leading Democrat is running on instituting a progressive income tax if he's elected governor and if that happens you can bet the brackets will start at the current rate and go upward for higher incomes. We here in Illinois get soaked on sales taxes and property taxes but as far as keeping more of his money, for now Darvish is better off a Cub.

 

I stand corrected, I think Plush was working off my numbers and I was lazy in how I found what I thought Illinois tax rate was. Apparently tax rate is meaningless if not a benefit for Illinois. I guarantee cost of living is lower in Wisconsin vs Illinois though, probably matters more than the tax rates ever would.

[82brewcrew82]

Re: the Brewers "matching" the Cubs offer.... Wouldn't the Brewers need to exceed the Cubs offer? Playing for the Cubs allows for much more potential in endorsement deals....

 

Illinois has higher state taxes, a 3ish% difference in state tax on say $140 million is substantial. If you went to the Cubs board you'd see they think Darvish is going to sign with them for 4/$90...LOL. $120-130 is probably the low end of what he might get.

 

Actually...no. A 3% difference(I went 7%/10%) is an incredible $2mil difference on $70mil. Only half his contract is made in Chicago/Milwaukee.

pft, lousy 2mil!

[JohnBriggs12]

You're both wrong. Illinois has a flat 4.95% state income tax. It's the same rate regardless of income level. I believe Wisconsin's top rate is 7.65%.

 

Now the leading Democrat is running on instituting a progressive income tax if he's elected governor and if that happens you can bet the brackets will start at the current rate and go upward for higher incomes. We here in Illinois get soaked on sales taxes and property taxes but as far as keeping more of his money, for now Darvish is better off a Cub.

 

I stand corrected, I think Plush was working off my numbers and I was lazy in how I found what I thought Illinois tax rate was. Apparently tax rate is meaningless if not a benefit for Illinois. I guarantee cost of living is lower in Wisconsin vs Illinois though, probably matters more than the tax rates ever would.

 

It was just a few years ago that the state income tax rate in Illinois was a flat 3%. They managed to raise it by 60%. Main difference in cost of living is housing. At the level Darvish is at, that's peanuts as I'm sure he'll have several residences.

 

BTW, I'm an Illinois resident.

[JoeCoolMan24]

 

Interesting how the Cubs and Red Sox are listed at the exact same revenue, down to the penny. Something's amiss there...

 

Tigers/Braves and Orioles/Dbacks are also exactly the same figures. Must be some sort of major guesstimations going on, there's no way those figures are real with that many teams being tied down to the penny.

[coolhandluke121]

I would stay the eff away from Yu at this point. It doesn't seem like he wants to be a Brewer. I don't trust situations like that. Of course everyone tries to get the most money, but I want every indication that a player is going to stay motivated and hungry after getting his last big contract in his 30's and I'm not getting that from Yu. I'd much rather give that money to Arrieta because I would trust him to be pissed at not getting paid like Greinke and also looking forward to pitching against the Cubs because they decided they had other priorities.

[KeithStone53151]

I would stay the eff away from Yu at this point. It doesn't seem like he wants to be a Brewer. I don't trust situations like that. Of course everyone tries to get the most money, but I want every indication that a player is going to stay motivated and hungry after getting his last big contract in his 30's and I'm not getting that from Yu. I'd much rather give that money to Arrieta because I would trust him to be pissed at not getting paid like Greinke and also looking forward to pitching against the Cubs because they decided they had other priorities.

 

You make an excellent point about staying hungry, that's really one of the most important factors in a free agent signing...being damn sure you aren't signing a guy that's going to coast(pujols).

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

I would stay the eff away from Yu at this point. It doesn't seem like he wants to be a Brewer. I don't trust situations like that. Of course everyone tries to get the most money, but I want every indication that a player is going to stay motivated and hungry after getting his last big contract in his 30's and I'm not getting that from Yu. I'd much rather give that money to Arrieta because I would trust him to be pissed at not getting paid like Greinke and also looking forward to pitching against the Cubs because they decided they had other priorities.

+1

[3and2Fastball]

BTW, I'm an Illinois resident.

 

My sympathies!

 

So back to the Brewers really needing to exceed the Cubs offer, not just match it....

[3and2Fastball]

Agree I would love to see the Cubs sign Darvish, and the Brewers get both Arrieta and the chip on Arrieta's shoulder.

[Warning Track Power]

I would stay the eff away from Yu at this point. It doesn't seem like he wants to be a Brewer. I don't trust situations like that. Of course everyone tries to get the most money, but I want every indication that a player is going to stay motivated and hungry after getting his last big contract in his 30's and I'm not getting that from Yu. I'd much rather give that money to Arrieta because I would trust him to be pissed at not getting paid like Greinke and also looking forward to pitching against the Cubs because they decided they had other priorities.

+1. If Yu can't make up his mind by now, I like Arrieta and his competitiveness. Don't forget about his desire to stick it to the Cubs every time he pitches against them.

[pacopete4]

If we are looking for grit and competitiveness just hand the ball to Suter every 5 days. If we are actually looking at winning something anytime soon, we better try to play our cards right with Darvish and see if it is a fit. Annoying or not, he is the best choice out on the market.

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

If we are looking for grit and competitiveness just hand the ball to Suter every 5 days. If we are actually looking at winning something anytime soon, we better try to play our cards right with Darvish and see if it is a fit. Annoying or not, he is the best choice out on the market.

You’re really comparing Suter to Arrieta?

[82brewcrew82]

If we are looking for grit and competitiveness just hand the ball to Suter every 5 days. If we are actually looking at winning something anytime soon, we better try to play our cards right with Darvish and see if it is a fit. Annoying or not, he is the best choice out on the market.

You’re really comparing Suter to Arrieta?

C'mon, that isn't close to what he said......and what he actually did say is 100% true.

[adambr2]

Is Darvish really that superior to Arrieta? If both are 28M a year players for example, but it takes 5/140 for Yu and 3/84 for Arrieta, I'll take Arrieta.

[MrTPlush]

I would stay the eff away from Yu at this point. It doesn't seem like he wants to be a Brewer.

 

According to...?

[KeithStone53151]

Is Darvish really that superior to Arrieta? If both are 28M a year players for example, but it takes 5/140 for Yu and 3/84 for Arrieta, I'll take Arrieta.

 

I'm strongly anti-Arrieta, but I think I'd be willing to take him on a 3 year deal that looked like that. I expect he'll get 4-5 years minimum though, once Darvish stops slowing down free agency...