Darvish

[bill hAll Star]

I think 50% of Revenue would be the top of the scale for Brewers on a sustained basis. Individual years could be higher but not consistently and not much more than that.

 

So I would peg the Brewers top of the scale at $125 but more comfortably in the 115-120 range. That said all teams are getting an extra $50 this year and maybe Mark A. would let Stearns use an extra 10-15 a year for the next 3-4 years with the hope that when that runs out the franchise revenue will have grown enough to not have to pull back from that level.

 

So maybe we can go to 130's this year and the next few. Put another way we have room for Darvish and Archer/Salazar. Although 2019-2021 will start to get tight and may necessitate trading away guys like Thames and Chacin (and maybe Knebel when he gets really expensive) and hoping guys like Erceg and Huira truly emerge to cheaply replace Shaw and Villar.

 

I think in your theory here on 2019, you probably can hold on to Thames/Chacin (they wouldn't sign Chacin to an affordable deal only to trade him away unless something really interesting came up), but you may have to non-tender Vogt, Perez, Villar as all may cost too much for their role in arbitration. Shaw is only in arby 1 in 2019, so he probably is only going to get like $4 million.

[Jose Cardenal1]

I think the point is the Brewers could be limiting their future flexibility with the additions. If a Darvish/Arrieta signing occur little improvements can be made to the roster in future years unless they come from our own prospects or they coincide with moving other players (Thames/Chacin in '19, possibly Knebel or Shaw in '20)

[pacopete4]

I think the point is the Brewers could be limiting their future flexibility with the additions. If a Darvish/Arrieta signing occur little improvements can be made to the roster in future years unless they come from our own prospects or they coincide with moving other players (Thames/Chacin in '19, possibly Knebel or Shaw in '20)

The question is then, will limiting their flexibility pay off? And even if they acquired a pitcher, it doesn't mean in two years that they couldn't move on and recoup some players in a trade. Same goes for Yelich and possibly Cain.

[jjfanec]

I don't see Darvish coming here but if he did this team would be really solid when Nelson returns. Darvish, Nelson, Anderson, Davies and Chacin is a rotation that could win a lot of games. The bullpen looks like it has solid pieces. And the lineup has definitely improved. Obviously things happen but if darvish signs I see us as a playoff team

[82brewcrew82]

I think the point is the Brewers could be limiting their future flexibility with the additions. If a Darvish/Arrieta signing occur little improvements can be made to the roster in future years unless they come from our own prospects or they coincide with moving other players (Thames/Chacin in '19, possibly Knebel or Shaw in '20)

The question is then, will limiting their flexibility pay off? And even if they acquired a pitcher, it doesn't mean in two years that they couldn't move on and recoup some players in a trade. Same goes for Yelich and possibly Cain.

Sure there are owners that are more or less risk averse than others and/or more profit oriented than baseball results oriented. Either way, do we really believe that people who can afford to buy sports franchises have no plan for the future?

[82brewcrew82]

I don't see Darvish coming here but if he did this team would be really solid when Nelson returns. Darvish, Nelson, Anderson, Davies and Chacin is a rotation that could win a lot of games. The bullpen looks like it has solid pieces. And the lineup has definitely improved. Obviously things happen but if darvish signs I see us as a playoff team

That assumes Nelson comes back at 100% of what he was. They need to acquire two pitchers in my opinion.

[jjfanec]

I don't see Darvish coming here but if he did this team would be really solid when Nelson returns. Darvish, Nelson, Anderson, Davies and Chacin is a rotation that could win a lot of games. The bullpen looks like it has solid pieces. And the lineup has definitely improved. Obviously things happen but if darvish signs I see us as a playoff team

That assumes Nelson comes back at 100% of what he was. They need to acquire two pitchers in my opinion.

 

I am not too worried about Nelson. He is supposed to be back around June and has already started throwing.

[pacopete4]

I think the point is the Brewers could be limiting their future flexibility with the additions. If a Darvish/Arrieta signing occur little improvements can be made to the roster in future years unless they come from our own prospects or they coincide with moving other players (Thames/Chacin in '19, possibly Knebel or Shaw in '20)

The question is then, will limiting their flexibility pay off? And even if they acquired a pitcher, it doesn't mean in two years that they couldn't move on and recoup some players in a trade. Same goes for Yelich and possibly Cain.

Sure there are owners that are more or less risk averse than others and/or more profit oriented than baseball results oriented. Either way, do we really believe that people who can afford to buy sports franchises have no plan for the future?

I don't believe that they do but I also believe that some of them buy them as "toys" more than they do about making a boatload of cash.

[HighHeat19]

HH19, a question (and sorry if you've answered this elsewhere)

 

Recently, as I recall, you mentioned that your source said unequivocally that the Brewers were out on Darvish and that he almost certainly was going to the Cubs.

 

This is not to challenge you, but I'm curious: What do you think changed, with your/your source's analysis? I know, stuff happens...but I'm curious to know what you think went down.

 

As I was told, Darvish's camp was looking for final offers. Brewer's gave theirs and then Cubs came in and exceeded Brewer's offer. I/we assumed that Cubs would get Darvish as their were no other offers coming in....at all. This went on for a few days. Darvish's camp just sat tight and is still sitting.

 

2 days ago Brewer's came back and matched Cubs. Brewer's don't know yet if Cubs or even other teams have matched. Waiting on Darvish's side now. And the thought from Baseball execs is that if Darvish keeps these teams waiting to much longer that they will A) sign other pitchers decreasing the need for Darvish. B) Teams will withdraw their offers as teams don't want to be jerked around. And because of the latter statement. A Decision is "expected" by Monday. As all teams on Darvish are getting impatient and even a little perturbed.

 

And my source is not aware of where the bidding/numbers/years is at. But..........it's going to be extremely pricey!!!

[pacopete4]

As all teams on Darvish are getting impatient and even a little perturbed.

Don't blame them. Piss or get off the pot already.

[82brewcrew82]

I don't believe that they do but I also believe that some of them buy them as "toys" more than they do about making a boatload of cash.

Sure, but these things still have to be managed. Even if it's a toy there is a significant amount of planning and consideration going on. These are competitive men by nature, they want to win.

[MKEguy]

Oh man. Extremely pricey scares me but the ride will be fun!

[82brewcrew82]

HH19, a question (and sorry if you've answered this elsewhere)

 

Recently, as I recall, you mentioned that your source said unequivocally that the Brewers were out on Darvish and that he almost certainly was going to the Cubs.

 

This is not to challenge you, but I'm curious: What do you think changed, with your/your source's analysis? I know, stuff happens...but I'm curious to know what you think went down.

 

As I was told, Darvish's camp was looking for final offers. Brewer's gave theirs and then Cubs came in and exceeded Brewer's offer. I/we assumed that Cubs would get Darvish as their were no other offers coming in....at all. This went on for a few days. Darvish's camp just sat tight and is still sitting.

 

2 days ago Brewer's came back and matched Cubs. Brewer's don't know yet if Cubs or even other teams have matched. Waiting on Darvish's side now. And the thought from Baseball execs is that if Darvish keeps these teams waiting to much longer that they will A) sign other pitchers decreasing the need for Darvish. B) Teams will withdraw their offers as teams don't want to be jerked around. And because of the latter statement. A Decision is "expected" by Monday. As all teams on Darvish are getting impatient and even a little perturbed.

 

And my source is not aware of where the bidding/numbers/years is at. But..........it's going to be extremely pricey!!!

I thought the Brewers gave a hard yes/no deadline and were rebuffed? Doesn't say a whole lot about the Brewers bargaining prowess if they went crawling back with another offer.

[brewtank34]

Love it! Matching the Cubs, heck yah! The Crew obviously knows their financial capabilities better than Ido so for them to feel cinfident throwing out a matching “pricey” offer is flat out awesome! I doubt they would do so if they felt that it would cripple them.

[HighHeat19]

HH19, a question (and sorry if you've answered this elsewhere)

 

Recently, as I recall, you mentioned that your source said unequivocally that the Brewers were out on Darvish and that he almost certainly was going to the Cubs.

 

This is not to challenge you, but I'm curious: What do you think changed, with your/your source's analysis? I know, stuff happens...but I'm curious to know what you think went down.

 

As I was told, Darvish's camp was looking for final offers. Brewer's gave theirs and then Cubs came in and exceeded Brewer's offer. I/we assumed that Cubs would get Darvish as their were no other offers coming in....at all. This went on for a few days. Darvish's camp just sat tight and is still sitting.

 

2 days ago Brewer's came back and matched Cubs. Brewer's don't know yet if Cubs or even other teams have matched. Waiting on Darvish's side now. And the thought from Baseball execs is that if Darvish keeps these teams waiting to much longer that they will A) sign other pitchers decreasing the need for Darvish. B) Teams will withdraw their offers as teams don't want to be jerked around. And because of the latter statement. A Decision is "expected" by Monday. As all teams on Darvish are getting impatient and even a little perturbed.

 

And my source is not aware of where the bidding/numbers/years is at. But..........it's going to be extremely pricey!!!

I thought the Brewers gave a hard yes/no deadline and were rebuffed? Doesn't say a whole lot about the Brewers bargaining prowess if they went crawling back with another offer.

 

Welcome to negotiations in the Big Boys Club.

[82brewcrew82]

Welcome to negotiations in the Big Boys Club.

I don't doubt that. The point is, the Brewers caved. They tried to play hard ball and lost. They blinked first and that doesn't bode well in these or future negotiations.

[HighHeat19]

Welcome to negotiations in the Big Boys Club.

I don't doubt that. The point is, the Brewers caved. They tried to play hard ball and lost. They blinked first and that doesn't bode well in these or future negotiations.

 

This stuff happens all the time actually.

 

Agents and GM's lie more than car salesman. This I was told by more than a few people in MLB.

[3and2Fastball]

I don't get why Darvish is rated as more desirable than Arrieta. Arrieta is just one year older, has been much better in the last 3 seasons, and has been vastly better in the postseason.

 

I'd be thrilled to get either, but I think Arrieta is much much better

[HighHeat19]

I don't get why Darvish is rated as more desirable than Arrieta. Arrieta is just one year older, has been much better in the last 3 seasons, and has been vastly better in the postseason.

 

I'd be thrilled to get either, but I think Arrieta is much much better

 

No one knows if Arrieta is better or not.

 

What we do know is the Brewer's are driving up Darvish's price to a division rival

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't get why Darvish is rated as more desirable than Arrieta. Arrieta is just one year older, has been much better in the last 3 seasons, and has been vastly better in the postseason.

 

I'd be thrilled to get either, but I think Arrieta is much much better

 

I assume it's because Boras is his agent, and the team would have to surrender a draft pick to sign him. But it sure would be awesome to see the Cubs lose out on Darvish, and see the Brewers sign Arrieta.

[TURBO]

 

2 days ago Brewer's came back and matched Cubs.

 

 

How does anyone know that we matched the Cubs offer? How do we know what the Cubs offer was? Are the offers made public to the GMs?

[KeithStone53151]

 

2 days ago Brewer's came back and matched Cubs.

 

 

How does anyone know that we matched the Cubs offer? How do we know what the Cubs offer was? Are the offers made public to the GMs?

 

It wouldn't surprise me if the agent/player told the GM's what was offered, how else do you make a bidding war happen? They could lie of course I suppose, but GM's are probably aware of agents that lie about that ****. Regardless of the specifics, I'm sure they have a pretty good idea of what the offers are.

[3and2Fastball]

Re: the Brewers "matching" the Cubs offer.... Wouldn't the Brewers need to exceed the Cubs offer? Playing for the Cubs allows for much more potential in endorsement deals....

[anglotiger]

I don't get why Darvish is rated as more desirable than Arrieta. Arrieta is just one year older, has been much better in the last 3 seasons, and has been vastly better in the postseason.

 

I'd be thrilled to get either, but I think Arrieta is much much better

 

No one knows if Arrieta is better or not.

 

I would argue that the Cubs clearly think that Darvish is more desirable than Arrieta at this point in time, and that they ought to be in the best position to know...

[3and2Fastball]

I don't get why Darvish is rated as more desirable than Arrieta. Arrieta is just one year older, has been much better in the last 3 seasons, and has been vastly better in the postseason.

 

I'd be thrilled to get either, but I think Arrieta is much much better

 

No one knows if Arrieta is better or not.

 

I would argue that the Cubs clearly think that Darvish is more desirable than Arrieta at this point in time, and that they ought to be in the best position to know...

 

We're talking about a franchise that *thinks* Kyle Schwarber is a left fielder and paid Jason Heyward a gazillion dollars.