Darvish

[KeithStone53151]

I see the Cubs fans are whining about the Brewers pursuit of Darvish and myself on their message boards. Nothing but dirtballs in that Filthy City. They don't like what I say but spew my words all over their forums.

 

Hey Cub Fans, you don't quote people if you don't believe them.

 

BTW, your finishing third this year behind Milwaukee AND St. Louis.......... per my source.

 

They are already assuming Harper will sign with them.... talk about delusional.

 

A couple weeks ago one guy invited us to join their board...claimed they'd be civil. LOL, maybe if they replace the word civil with outrageously rude...

[brewmann04]

Cubs fans going die when the yanks get Harper

[82brewcrew82]

I see the Cubs fans are whining about the Brewers pursuit of Darvish and myself on their message boards. Nothing but dirtballs in that Filthy City. They don't like what I say but spew my words all over their forums.

 

Hey Cub Fans, you don't quote people if you don't believe them.

 

BTW, your finishing third this year behind Milwaukee AND St. Louis.......... per my source.

 

They are already assuming Harper will sign with them.... talk about delusional.

 

A couple weeks ago one guy invited us to join their board...claimed they'd be civil. LOL, maybe if they replace the word civil with outrageously rude...

There isn't enough money to be part of that community.

[MadThinker88]

HighHeat-

 

In the 40% chance you give us for landing Yu, what would be the factor that tips him to us?

 

City = Chicago > Milwaukee (in terms of what he's stated he's looking for)

Weather = push

Winning = Chicago did recently win a WS and have a loaded lineup, though we potentially could be formidable

 

Short of us offering more $$/years, what would sell him on coming here?

 

Just my guess - A dome to minimize issues of cold/ bad weather when trying to warm-up & pitch at home...

Very helpful in March, April, early May and again in September/ October..

[MadThinker88]

Cubs fans going die when the yanks get Harper

 

I doubt Harper to Yankees. Machado more of a target for the Yanks, especially with Stanton & Judge already in the outfield.

Really think Harper is trying to head west, get closer to his home in Las Vegas..

[wallus]

There isn't enough money to be part of that community.

 

Half of their posts have "horsefeathers" in it. Derp.

[MadThinker88]

If Yu signs with the Brewers, I will change my CC avatar to a Yu avatar. Hope the Brewers succeed.

 

If the Brewers get Darvish, I don't see the need to trade for Archer. The trade cost for Archer is way too high, I'd stay away. No way I will trade Corbin Burnes. Really hope the Brewers stay away from making a bad trade.

 

Just my 2 cents but I'd keep the CC avatar... He's won more in his career & done more for the Brewers.

IF Yu signs in Milwaukee & on top of that puts the team on his back to the promised land, then yeah, consider making a change. Until then, stick w/ CC..

[RockCoCougars]

Keep driving the cost to the Cubs up. I'm still of the belief that this renewed Brewers buzz is a concerted attempt to extract more from the Cubs. Works for me.

[gebc1997]

I will get no satisfaction if the Cubs sign Darvish for a couple extra million dollars than they wanted. The Cubs won't care one bit and it will not have any significant long term affect on their future

[brewmann04]

If Darvish does sign with the Cubs just gives me another reason to dislike him.

[JoeCoolMan24]

I see the Cubs fans are whining about the Brewers pursuit of Darvish and myself on their message boards. Nothing but dirtballs in that Filthy City. They don't like what I say but spew my words all over their forums.

 

Hey Cub Fans, you don't quote people if you don't believe them.

 

BTW, your finishing third this year behind Milwaukee AND St. Louis.......... per my source.

 

Hey man! Keep your hate on the North side of the city!

 

-- A White Sox fan.

[old hickory]

 

Hey man! Keep your hate on the North side of the city!

 

-- A White Sox fan.

 

 

This is a fair request...

[Eye Black]

From Ken Rosenthal this morning...

 

@Ken_Rosenthal: Per sources and reports, delay on Darvish seems to be stemming from number of factors: Efforts of #Yankees and #Dodgers to clear salary; entrance of new teams such as #Brewers into bidding; Darvish’s agents waiting to get their price. @RobertMurrayFRS, @McCulloughTimes on it.

[fondybrewfan]

All of this is really too much to believe. The Brewers have never won a bidding war for an elite FA and I don't think it is going to start now. I don't think Stearns is dumb enough to start throwing around $30 Million AAV deals to pitchers. Trading for an Archer or Stroman or whoever and signing someone who would be a bit cheaper (Lynn or Cobb) is the way I think this eventually plays out. Would the Brewers really give a $120 Million + contract? Maybe the Brewers are a widely profitable franchise that can sustain a $130 Million but at least I don't think that is the case. Yu is using the Brewers for leverage; well at least that is my opinion. Once Yi signed somewhere I am sure Stearns has a backup FA plan for one of the other 3 guys.

[Point Beer Is Best]

If you want to be an eternal optimist, there’s a few ways this could work out. Either by taking on salary from the Dodgers/Yankees in exchange for top prospects so they can keep Darvish from the Cubs, or force the Cubs into handing out a massive contract. Or the long shot he signs with us.

[Jose Cardenal1]

From Ken Rosenthal this morning...

 

@Ken_Rosenthal: Per sources and reports, delay on Darvish seems to be stemming from number of factors: Efforts of #Yankees and #Dodgers to clear salary; entrance of new teams such as #Brewers into bidding; Darvish’s agents waiting to get their price. @RobertMurrayFRS, @McCulloughTimes on it.

 

Not to get too off track but Rosenthal's mention of Yankees looking to shed salary reminded me of something else I had read about their possible interest in Kipnis earlier this offseason. The article mentioned that Kipnis' contract AAV was something like $8 which is what would count towards the luxury tax even though what was actually owed was about $30 over the next 2 years.

 

This got me wondering about Ellsbury. Clearly the Brewers don't need him so I am not advocating that. What I wonder though is if the Yankees did find a taker by picking up say $10 a year of his remaining contract do they have to count that towards the luxury tax calculation or do they get to deduct the whole $21+/yr AAV of his contract? The fact that the luxury tax uses the AAV of the contracts seems like a silly way to do track this.

[superfly]

All of this is really too much to believe. The Brewers have never won a bidding war for an elite FA and I don't think it is going to start now. I don't think Stearns is dumb enough to start throwing around $30 Million AAV deals to pitchers. Trading for an Archer or Stroman or whoever and signing someone who would be a bit cheaper (Lynn or Cobb) is the way I think this eventually plays out. Would the Brewers really give a $120 Million + contract? Maybe the Brewers are a widely profitable franchise that can sustain a $130 Million but at least I don't think that is the case. Yu is using the Brewers for leverage; well at least that is my opinion. Once Yi signed somewhere I am sure Stearns has a backup FA plan for one of the other 3 guys.

 

Maybe Attanasio has decided he wants to boost payroll higher than traditional levels if the right scenario presented itself? The guy is probably swimming in money at this point in his life. Who knows what's going on behind closed doors.

[YungTeeler]

All of this is really too much to believe. The Brewers have never won a bidding war for an elite FA and I don't think it is going to start now. I don't think Stearns is dumb enough to start throwing around $30 Million AAV deals to pitchers. Trading for an Archer or Stroman or whoever and signing someone who would be a bit cheaper (Lynn or Cobb) is the way I think this eventually plays out. Would the Brewers really give a $120 Million + contract? Maybe the Brewers are a widely profitable franchise that can sustain a $130 Million but at least I don't think that is the case. Yu is using the Brewers for leverage; well at least that is my opinion. Once Yi signed somewhere I am sure Stearns has a backup FA plan for one of the other 3 guys.

 

Maybe Attanasio has decided he wants to boost payroll higher than traditional levels if the right scenario presented itself? The guy is probably swimming in money at this point in his life. Who knows what's going on behind closed doors.

 

This. Mark A is all in and not patient. Yu sells tickets and Mark wants butts in the seats

[Eye Black]

All of this is really too much to believe. The Brewers have never won a bidding war for an elite FA and I don't think it is going to start now. I don't think Stearns is dumb enough to start throwing around $30 Million AAV deals to pitchers. Trading for an Archer or Stroman or whoever and signing someone who would be a bit cheaper (Lynn or Cobb) is the way I think this eventually plays out. Would the Brewers really give a $120 Million + contract? Maybe the Brewers are a widely profitable franchise that can sustain a $130 Million but at least I don't think that is the case. Yu is using the Brewers for leverage; well at least that is my opinion. Once Yi signed somewhere I am sure Stearns has a backup FA plan for one of the other 3 guys.

 

Maybe Attanasio has decided he wants to boost payroll higher than traditional levels if the right scenario presented itself? The guy is probably swimming in money at this point in his life. Who knows what's going on behind closed doors.

 

I found the below chart interesting when trying to understand the financials of each team. This is straight payroll and revenue, so keep in mind there are a lot of operational expenses not accounted for that also eat away at the revenue. Such things include capital projects, facility maintenance, staff salaries, amateur players signing bonuses, ventures such as buying a minor league team or building/renovating a Spring Training complex, and I am sure plenty more expenses and costs that all need to be budgeted for within the revenue numbers.

 

According to this Tweet the chart uses Cot's 2017 payroll matched with Forbes 2016 revenue data. This data may be fairly accurate or it could be wildly inaccurate, I will let you decide for yourself. The order of the teams is what percentage of revenue each reportedly spent on payroll.

 

[KeithStone53151]

 

I found the below chart interesting when trying to understand the financials of each team. This is straight payroll and revenue, so keep in mind there are a lot of operational expenses not accounted for that also eat away at the revenue. Such things include capital projects, facility maintenance, staff salaries, ventures such as buying a minor league team or building/renovating a Spring Training complex, and I am sure plenty more expenses and costs that all need to be budgeted for within the revenue numbers. The order of the teams is what percentage of revenue each reportedly spent on payroll.

 

According to this Tweet the chart uses Cot's 2017 payroll matched with Forbes 2016 revenue data. This data may be fairly accurate or it could be wildly inaccurate, I will let you decide for yourself.

 

 

Do you know if revenue sharing is factored in? If you had a chart like this for our highest payroll year, we could make a much more educated guess at what our potential payroll for 2018 could be. I don't see any reason that we can't be in the 50-60% range or higher for so many reasons. Low payrolls back to back years, revenue sharing, boosted revenue as a contending team, plenty of other team are operating in that range, etc. I also generally buy these numbers as nothing overly surprises me, and the sources are very solid(cot's/forbes)

 

Before seeing this, I figure we could comfortably maintain $120 million payrolls year in and year out...and I wouldn't have been surprised by any payroll any year until it went over $140 million. I think I'll revise those numbers upward to $130 million base payrolls with $150 million being an absolute max in a break even year.

[SandyTolan]

HH19, a question (and sorry if you've answered this elsewhere)

 

Recently, as I recall, you mentioned that your source said unequivocally that the Brewers were out on Darvish and that he almost certainly was going to the Cubs.

 

This is not to challenge you, but I'm curious: What do you think changed, with your/your source's analysis? I know, stuff happens...but I'm curious to know what you think went down.

[Eye Black]

I do not know if revenue sharing is factored in, but those numbers came from Forbes so someone with a better idea of how they compile their information may know.

 

The same individual also did a chart that swapped out the beginning of the year payroll with 2017 year end payrolls (since teams obviously add salary during the year, i.e. Neil Walker, Anthony Swarzak, etc.). Here is the link to the chart with end of season payrolls factored in: LINK to chart using year end payroll

[KeithStone53151]

I do not know if revenue sharing is factored in, but those numbers came from Forbes so someone with a better idea of how they compile their information may know.

 

The same individual also did a chart that swapped out the beginning of the year payroll with the end of 2017 season payrolls (since teams obviously add salary during the year, i.e. Neil Walker, Anthony Swarzak, etc.). Here is the link to the chart with end of season payrolls factored in: LINK

 

Jeez, Royals got up to $185 million!?!?!? I feel like the Brewers are at least capable of being their equal from a revenue standpoint, if they can do it why can't we? Obviously not every year, but in the right given year.

[MrTPlush]

We gave Ryan Braun 5/$100mil so I don’t find throwing around 5/$120mil that crazy of a concept. Even slightly more than that isn’t that hard to believe.

 

I think we are looking at $130mil or do as a realistic payroll in a few years with a new TV deal. I see Attanasio sticking at more like $115mil though. That is probably where we max out. You are in a fantasy land if you think the Brewers will ever blow up the payroll to 75% of revenue though....don’t hold your breath.

[Jose Cardenal1]

I think 50% of Revenue would be the top of the scale for Brewers on a sustained basis. Individual years could be higher but not consistently and not much more than that.

 

So I would peg the Brewers top of the scale at $125 but more comfortably in the 115-120 range. That said all teams are getting an extra $50 this year and maybe Mark A. would let Stearns use an extra 10-15 a year for the next 3-4 years with the hope that when that runs out the franchise revenue will have grown enough to not have to pull back from that level.

 

So maybe we can go to 130's this year and the next few. Put another way we have room for Darvish and Archer/Salazar. Although 2019-2021 will start to get tight and may necessitate trading away guys like Thames and Chacin (and maybe Knebel when he gets really expensive) and hoping guys like Erceg and Huira truly emerge to cheaply replace Shaw and Villar.