Significant Acquisition Coming? Krasnick says "buzz" Brewers close to a trade

[dacbrewers]

Don't say that like you believe it - some people here will act like you're naive for not thinking that Stearns is a flat-out liar because no GM would ever actually tell you the truth...

His answers fall right into line with someone with a political science education.

[Greenleaf1]

So since the Ellsbury deal possibilty seems to be the only one with any hints at being true so far (however spurious those hints are), what would that deal potentially look like?

 

Brewers get:

- Jacoby Ellsbury

- Albert Abreu

- $30M

 

Yankees get:

- Keon Broxton

- Organizational depth prospect

 

I'm trying to base this at least somewhat around the deal with Arizona for Jean Segura. Broxton's value is a little lower than Segura's, but we're taking on a much worse contract for multiple years than Aaron Hill. Abreu can be the Isan Diaz part, we offer less than Tyler Wagner in terms of prospect return. There's not a good Chase Anderson part in here though, so I wonder if maybe one more prospect from the Yankees in the 20-30 range might balance this deal?

[ahagen1987]

Are you able to check in with an update HighHeat?

 

Trade may not happen till Wednesday or even Thursday. Contract issues.

 

Can you say if what we are sending out is someone in the majors or prospects?

[pacopete4]

I feel bad for HighHeat19. Poor guy probably should've kept it to himself

[StearnsFTW]

So since the Ellsbury deal possibilty seems to be the only one with any hints at being true so far (however spurious those hints are), what would that deal potentially look like?

 

Brewers get:

- Jacoby Ellsbury

- Albert Abreu

- $30M

 

Yankees get:

- Keon Broxton

- Organizational depth prospect

 

I'm trying to base this at least somewhat around the deal with Arizona for Jean Segura. Broxton's value is a little lower than Segura's, but we're taking on a much worse contract for multiple years than Aaron Hill. Abreu can be the Isan Diaz part, we offer less than Tyler Wagner in terms of prospect return. There's not a good Chase Anderson part in here though, so I wonder if maybe one more prospect from the Yankees in the 20-30 range might balance this deal?

 

Yeah, I was trying to figure it out too. Your deal seems light on the Yankee end to me. This is us giving up Broxton, a prospect (both of which aren't worth much) and paying a pretty much useless player $38,000,000. Someone will come in with the values of prospects, but I personally wouldn't pay $38,000,000 (plus minor value) for Albert Abreu. I'd need more. I'm glad someone tried to put it together though.

 

Edit: I looked it up myself and surplus value of a pitcher 76-100 is 15.6M. Having said that, I'd take Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield and another lower level prospect and they can keep Abreu. I'm using 2017 pipeline numbers so I also may be off a bit. That's a deal I could get behind, no problem.

 

I'd say

Brewers get

Ellsbury

Sheffield

Adams

$30,000,000

 

Yankees get

Broxton

 

That'd be my offer.

[jerichoholicninja]

After initially reported it took a month to finalize a LOOGY signing. This major trade may take till the all star break.

[reillymcshane]

People need to keep in mind that acquiring a player (such as Ellsbury) doesn't mean we will keep him. As people have said, there may be a lot of moving parts here. While we could get Ellsbury in a deal with the Yankees, we could easily have another team lined up to take him after that. Just gotta wait and see how it all turns out.

[clancyphile]

Other than Ellsury plus prospects, all of these suggested deals show the Brewers are going for it in 2018 which is really interesting. They must think the Cubs are vulnerable.

 

The Brewers may not be the only ones thinking the Cubs are vulnerable.

 

Why hasn't Arietta re-signed with them?

 

With their 2016 World Series win, the cachet of helping the Cubs end a championship drought doesn't exist any more.

 

Darvish's emoji would seem to indicate he is seriously considering the Crew's offer.

[jerichoholicninja]

The Cubs are not any more vulnerable than they were last year. I really hope Stearns isn't making moves because of the Cubs and instead making moves that are best for the organization regardless of any other team.

[JosephC]

No way Ellsbury would be coming to Milwaukee without Braun going back to the Yankees. With all of the young outfielders and outfield prospects in this organization, it makes absolutely no sense that Stearns would tie up two outfield spots with old, overpaid, declining outfielders in Braun and Ellsbury. And even if the Yankees kick in 30 million dollars, the Brewers would still be paying Braun and Ellsbury on average nearly 29 million per season for the next three seasons (26% of a 110 million dollar payroll) and would be on the hook for 9 million dollars of buyout money in 2021.

 

And it also would make no sense for the Brewers to make a deal for Ellsbury and then just release him. In Greenleaf1's example above the Yankees pick up 30 million but that still leaves a 38+ million dollar obligation for Milwaukee. Albert Abreu is #77 on Baseball America's top 100, so he's a back end, top 100 pitching prospect. I have guys in that category being worth 17.86 million dollars in surplus value. No way is a guy like that even remotely close to being worth a 38 million dollar commitment to a team in the smallest MLB market.

[pacopete4]

I am hoping Stearns is just making moves because he feels that he can better our Brewers and the rest of the organization. If he tries to do that in every deal, winning will take care of itself.

 

If we are taking back Ellsbury and his large salary, we need to be getting more than just one prospect in return or this deal doesn't make a lot of sense. Again, all we are doing is speculating and I'm perfectly fine with taking on Elsbury if it means other moves are in the works. We could really transform our major league team into something special as well as keep the pipeline churning.

[Greenleaf1]

So since the Ellsbury deal possibilty seems to be the only one with any hints at being true so far (however spurious those hints are), what would that deal potentially look like?

 

Brewers get:

- Jacoby Ellsbury

- Albert Abreu

- $30M

 

Yankees get:

- Keon Broxton

- Organizational depth prospect

 

I'm trying to base this at least somewhat around the deal with Arizona for Jean Segura. Broxton's value is a little lower than Segura's, but we're taking on a much worse contract for multiple years than Aaron Hill. Abreu can be the Isan Diaz part, we offer less than Tyler Wagner in terms of prospect return. There's not a good Chase Anderson part in here though, so I wonder if maybe one more prospect from the Yankees in the 20-30 range might balance this deal?

 

Yeah, I was trying to figure it out too. Your deal seems light on the Yankee end to me. This is us giving up Broxton, a prospect (both of which aren't worth much) and paying a pretty much useless player $38,000,000. Someone will come in with the values of prospects, but I personally wouldn't pay $38,000,000 (plus minor value) for Albert Abreu. I'd need more. I'm glad someone tried to put it together though.

 

Agreed that it seems like a pretty steep price to pay for one good prospect. Yankees have a lot of interesting bullpen arms, might be worth seeing if we can get our setup guy from them. Betances maybe?

 

Also for what it's worth, Abreu is on the Yankees' 40-man. Swap Ellsbury for Broxton and Abreu could take the spot that Wang will vacate soon, but if we're adding another piece to the deal, we might need to make room after this trade.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Contract issues.

 

The only Brewer with a contract that could cause a problem is Braun and he doesn't seem to be going anywhere anyway so it means a player coming back has contract issues.

 

That could be no-trade clause or vesting/team/player options or working out a salary sharing arrangement. So who from the AL would fit that:

 

Ellsbury - but acquiring him seems more like move B or C not move A

 

Salazar/Fulmer/Strohman - they are all controlled by Arb years not contract years

 

Duffy - straight forward contract but maybe Brewers are looking for Royals to pick up some $$

 

Archer - he has option years but no authority to demand they be picked up to accept a trade

 

Machado - can't imagine the Brewers both trade for and get him to sign a contract but I suppose that would fit as a "contract issue"

 

Kipnis - maybe. Brewers may be asking for $$, not sure if he has a no-trade where he can demand the option yr be picked up

 

Robinson Cano - this would definitely be out of left field but I can see Seattle trying to get out of the contract and the Brewers needing big $$ from Seattle to do so

 

Verlander - Would Astros trade him so they can continue pursuit of Darvish?

 

Really grasping at straws to find contract issues for players the Brewers would be interested in

[splitterpfj]

No way Ellsbury would be coming to Milwaukee without Braun going back to the Yankees. With all of the young outfielders and outfield prospects in this organization, it makes absolutely no sense that Stearns would tie up two outfield spots with old, overpaid, declining outfielders in Braun and Ellsbury. And even if the Yankees kick in 30 million dollars, the Brewers would still be paying Braun and Ellsbury on average nearly 29 million per season for the next three seasons (26% of a 110 million dollar payroll) and would be on the hook for 9 million dollars of buyout money in 2021.

 

And it also would make no sense for the Brewers to make a deal for Ellsbury and then just release him. In Greenleaf1's example above the Yankees pick up 30 million but that still leaves a 38+ million dollar obligation for Milwaukee. Albert Abreu is #77 on Baseball America's top 100, so he's a back end, top 100 pitching prospect. I have guys in that category being worth 17.86 million dollars in surplus value. No way is a guy like that even remotely close to being worth a 38 million dollar commitment to a team in the smallest MLB market.

 

As I said earlier in this thread ..... bringing Ellsbury to Milwaukee? Just, NO.

 

The only way a deal involving Ellsbury makes sense, is if he's moved right on through to another team - which I would have to think is what would be happening.

[bill hAll Star]

Verlander - Would Astros trade him so they can continue pursuit of Darvish?

 

I know that you're just throwing out ideas here so I'm not shooting the messenger, but I would say no. Verlander is probably as good or better than Darvish and has shorter-term risk. Don't see it.

[StearnsFTW]

The Cubs are not any more vulnerable than they were last year. I really hope Stearns isn't making moves because of the Cubs and instead making moves that are best for the organization regardless of any other team.

 

Not sure I agree with this. That bullpen could be a major problem for them. Of course, the offseason isn't over yet. I definitely agree with your opinion on Stearns' moves though.

 

On a related topic, if any mods see this, is it possible to change a username? Mine is really stupid and I'd like to change it if possible.

[pacopete4]

I'm not sure why so many are up in arms about Ellsbury being a Brewer? If it means that we are moving Brinson, Phillips, Santana, or even Broxton on, Ellsbury fits in with the Brewers and gives them a pretty good bat from the left side of the plate. If we are taking on him and his contract plus a couple of prospects, and then moving those other OF's in another deal for pitching... what's not to like?

[pacopete4]

 

On a related topic, if any mods see this, is it possible to change a username? Mine is really stupid and I'd like to change it if possible.

 

 

Might want to start with your quote on your posts

[StearnsFTW]

No way Ellsbury would be coming to Milwaukee without Braun going back to the Yankees. With all of the young outfielders and outfield prospects in this organization, it makes absolutely no sense that Stearns would tie up two outfield spots with old, overpaid, declining outfielders in Braun and Ellsbury. And even if the Yankees kick in 30 million dollars, the Brewers would still be paying Braun and Ellsbury on average nearly 29 million per season for the next three seasons (26% of a 110 million dollar payroll) and would be on the hook for 9 million dollars of buyout money in 2021.

 

And it also would make no sense for the Brewers to make a deal for Ellsbury and then just release him. In Greenleaf1's example above the Yankees pick up 30 million but that still leaves a 38+ million dollar obligation for Milwaukee. Albert Abreu is #77 on Baseball America's top 100, so he's a back end, top 100 pitching prospect. I have guys in that category being worth 17.86 million dollars in surplus value. No way is a guy like that even remotely close to being worth a 38 million dollar commitment to a team in the smallest MLB market.

 

As I said earlier in this thread ..... bringing Ellsbury to Milwaukee? Just, NO.

 

The only way a deal involving Ellsbury makes sense, is if he's moved right on through to another team - which I would have to think is what would be happening.

 

I guess I don't really see the problem. I edited an earlier post with what I'd offer, so I'll paste it here:

 

I'd say

Brewers get

Ellsbury

Sheffield

Adams

$30,000,000

 

Yankees get

Broxton

 

That'd be my offer.

 

I'd be pretty thrilled with that trade.

[StearnsFTW]

 

On a related topic, if any mods see this, is it possible to change a username? Mine is really stupid and I'd like to change it if possible.

 

 

Might want to start with your quote on your posts

 

Yep.

 

I really don't hate them like I did 15 years ago.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think we should stop saying Braun isn't going anywhere. Are the chances very small? Sure. But it still makes sense to move him if you're the Brewers, and plenty of teams would like to have him if the money was right- especially AL teams. And I do think Mark A has a great relationship with Braun, and Braun would waive his no-trade clause for the right team.

 

Stearns is very good at keeping things quiet, and IF anything involving Braun is going on I'm sure he has pleaded with the other team no leaks. (Many of which are very good at flying under the radar themselves.)

 

*Not predicting anything. Just saying I don't buy there's a 0% chance Braun gets traded.

[MoreTrife]

The Cubs are not any more vulnerable than they were last year. I really hope Stearns isn't making moves because of the Cubs and instead making moves that are best for the organization regardless of any other team.

 

Not sure I agree with this. That bullpen could be a major problem for them. Of course, the offseason isn't over yet. I definitely agree with your opinion on Stearns' moves though.

 

On a related topic, if any mods see this, is it possible to change a username? Mine is really stupid and I'd like to change it if possible.

 

No it's great! They should die!

 

Also, Cubs aren't powerhouse. They caught magic in 2016. They are good but not powerhouse.

[JosephC]

People need to keep in mind that acquiring a player (such as Ellsbury) doesn't mean we will keep him. As people have said, there may be a lot of moving parts here. While we could get Ellsbury in a deal with the Yankees, we could easily have another team lined up to take him after that. Just gotta wait and see how it all turns out.

 

I don't see it. WAR-wise, Ellsbury was slightly better than Braun in 2017. However, Braun has been the better WAR player when looking at the 2-year and 3-year splits, and Depth Charts and Steamer (on average) have Braun being a much better player than Ellsbury in 2018 (1.5 WAR to a pitiful 0.35 WAR for Ellsbury). If the Brewers weren't able to find a taker for Braun then good luck finding a taker for Ellsbury. Braun was still a 3 WAR player but everyone was anticipating a big decline. The decline has already happened for Ellsbury. And Ellsbury has an even bigger contract than Braun. Not crazy to think that the majority opinion on Ellsbury would see him as a 1.0 WAR player in 2018, a 0.5 WAR player in 2019 and nothing above replacement after that. If so he only has about 14 million dollars of value. He still is due 68+ million dollars, so he'd roughly have a -54 million surplus value. Even if the Yankees eat 30 million, Ellsbury would have -24 million in surplus value. Good luck moving that contract. Only contract I can think of off-hand that I would currently rate worse than the Ellsbury contact would be the Albert Pujols deal.

[jerichoholicninja]

If the Yankees want to dump Ellsbury, I'll take the whole contract, Torres, and another lesser pitching prospect. The Yanks can have Broxton or Ray.

[iKezims]

Source: Diamondbacks sign ex-Brewers reliever Michael Blazek to minor-league deal.

 

Go home guys, significant acquisition has been made.