Financial state of baseball: New Quotes from Brewerfan Agent39

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

no, increasing during arbitration wont change anything, it'll just increase what they expect once they his FA. a solution would be reducing the number of years of arbitration and getting FA earlier in the players career.

Well it lets players get closer to their actual worth at their prime years and would shift FA to paying more towards actual value/expected future value/performance as opposed to FA being for paying dudes for past performance. Reducing arbitration years is fine but that really hurts the small market teams since all the good FAs will go to big markets/teams that can afford them.

[torts]

no, increasing during arbitration wont change anything, it'll just increase what they expect once they his FA. a solution would be reducing the number of years of arbitration and getting FA earlier in the players career.

Well it lets players get closer to their actual worth at their prime years and would shift FA to paying more towards actual value/expected future value/performance as opposed to FA being for paying dudes for past performance. Reducing arbitration years is fine but that really hurts the small market teams since all the good FAs will go to big markets/teams that can afford them.

 

no it doesn't. if you increase arbitration it means that mediocre players will start getting paid more, which will in turn cause the good and elite players to get paid far more than them, and when they hit FA, they'll expect a jump from beyond that. So yes, while in their prime they'll want more money, but no agent would then say "ah, he was paid fairly in his prime, we wont ask for more on the open market", they'll exploit that fact that player was paid $xx million and use that as the starting point for open bids.

 

only way to increase comp during arb years is to put a cap when players hit the open market.

 

"small market" teams are still owned by billionaires. I will never buy into the notion that a small market team can't afford a top FA. They just choose not to run in the red to win.

[adambr2]

no, increasing during arbitration wont change anything, it'll just increase what they expect once they his FA. a solution would be reducing the number of years of arbitration and getting FA earlier in the players career.

Well it lets players get closer to their actual worth at their prime years and would shift FA to paying more towards actual value/expected future value/performance as opposed to FA being for paying dudes for past performance. Reducing arbitration years is fine but that really hurts the small market teams since all the good FAs will go to big markets/teams that can afford them.

 

"small market" teams are still owned by billionaires. I will never buy into the notion that a small market team can't afford a top FA. They just choose not to run in the red to win.

 

I would hope no one expects them to. Billionaires become billionaires and stay billionaires through smart financial investments. As much as we want to win at whatever cost needed, the Brewers are still a business investment for Mark A. It would be a silly business decision to buy the Brewers and then operate them at a financial loss.

 

As far as what is an acceptable return on his investment, I couldn't say, but I certainly don't expect him to run in the red.

[KeithStone53151]

https://www.fanragsports.com/dodgers/heyman-jansen-worried-about-mlb-effort-imbalance/

 

This article is somewhat related. I specifically want to point to Jansen's comment that only 2 teams in the NL Central are trying to win. I couldn't disagree more. Both the Brewers and Cardinals clearly have made significant moves towards improving their clubs and are at minimum in serious contention for a wildcard spot. The Cubs are obviously contending. I'm not sure which of the Brewers/Cardinals he's excluding from the "trying to win" group, but either way he's wrong. The Pirates are sorta kinda but not really trying, and the Reds are probably 1-2 years away from serious contention.

 

I would also argue that the West has 4 serious contenders, and the Padres paid Hosmer $144 million guaranteed or something. They are a year or two away but very close to contending. The East is a bit of a different story. The Mets are being cost conscious but sorta kinda trying, the Phillies and Braves are building up to contending probably as soon as next year, and the Marlins...yeah they don't care about winning.

 

So by my count, only the Marlins and Pirates in the NL are clearly not trying to win. 13 of 15 teams are either in win-now mode, or are built up to the point that they'll likely be in win-now mode within the next 2 years.

 

I think it would be funny if the Dodgers lost 7 or 8 of the first 10 against a couple good NL West teams. They'll see Greinke once and Bumgarner twice, it could happen.

[wildcat83]

To me trial and error alone should drive down the price of the top contracts, or at least stall it out. The following is a list of the top 20 contracts in MLB from Baseball Prospectus. HOW MANY ARE WORTH IT? It's not collusion or the owners just trying to get richer. It's the owners and GM's realizing how few of these contracts have ever paid off. Next year will be different as there are a few FA who will get paid, they are just that good, but even those guys will have probably a 30% chance of living up to the contract at best. Small market teams can't take that risk. If they do and it fails they are doomed for 6-8 years minimum.

 

If they had a chance to do it over, how many of these deals would get done again? Maybe 4 out of 20. A couple are too early to know how bad they are just yet.

 

1. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27)

2. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)

3. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10)

4. Miguel Cabrera, $248,000,000 (2016-23)

5. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21)

… Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23)

7. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23)

8. David Price, $217,000,000 (2016-22)

9. Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20)

10. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20)

11. Max Scherzer, $210,000,000 (2015-21)

12. Zack Greinke, $206,500,000 (2016-21)

13. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10)

14. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18)

. . . Jason Heyward, $184,000,000 (2016-23)

16. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16)

. . . Justin Verlander, $180,000,000 (2013-19)

18. Felix Hernandez, $175,000,000 (2013-19)

. . . Stephen Strasburg, $175,000,000 (2017-23)

20. Buster Posey, $167,000,000 (2013-21)

 

Full Link: http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

[ewitkows]

I'd take more than 4 . Posey,Stras, Max, Kershaw, Votto, Staton, the first Arod deal, Cano and on the fence about Verlander

[KeithStone53151]

I'd take more than 4 . Posey,Stras, Max, Kershaw, Votto, Staton, the first Arod deal, Cano and on the fence about Verlander

 

I think Stras/Stanton absolutely fall into "too early to tell" category, the others I mostly agree with. But look at the damage done by the majority of the contracts which have been bad...those are crippling contracts if you are wrong about a guy.

[wildcat83]

I'd take more than 4 . Posey,Stras, Max, Kershaw, Votto, Staton, the first Arod deal, Cano and on the fence about Verlander

 

Votto and Cano both go through 2023.

 

Maybe Votto hangs on to a decent level of productivity until then. That is a big maybe, and they are paying him through a complete rebuild so any production really isn't valuable in those years.

 

Cano has zero chance of being productive that long and also is being paid to be a good hitter on a rebuilding team.

[MrTPlush]

If they had a chance to do it over, how many of these deals would get done again? Maybe 4 out of 20. A couple are too early to know how bad they are just yet.

 

More than I thought prior to you posting that list honestly. There are quite a few of those contracts that provided a ton of early contract value that is going past the mid-point. In my opinion if over half the mega contract ends up good and the later year still give value the contract overall isn't too bad. There are still a lot of scary duds though

[DuWayne Steurer]

Miguel Cabrera's contract is going to be as bad as the Pujols one. Maybe worse.

[jerichoholicninja]

If they had a chance to do it over, how many of these deals would get done again? Maybe 4 out of 20. A couple are too early to know how bad they are just yet.

 

More than I thought prior to you posting that list honestly. There are quite a few of those contracts that provided a ton of early contract value that is going past the mid-point. In my opinion if over half the mega contract ends up good and the later year still give value the contract overall isn't too bad. There are still a lot of scary duds though

 

A lot of those aren't absolutely terrible contracts. However, none of this year's free agents come anywhere close anyone on that list in terms of talent. Hence why no one's getting big, long term deals.

[JosephC]

MLBPA Files Grievance Against Four Teams Over Revenue Sharing Funds

 

The Major League Baseball Player’s Association has initiated a grievance proceeding against the Athletics, Marlins, Pirates, and Rays regarding those teams’ spending of revenue sharing dollars, according to a report from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

 

This general issue has been percolating for some time, even as additional concerns have arisen as to the pace of free-agent signings over the 2017-18 offseason. The MLBPA reportedly engaged with the league office over the Miami and Pittsburgh organizations’ spending earlier this year.

 

Interesting that three of the four teams have already won more games than last year, and this is with a week of games still to be played.

 

Meanwhile, the 11 largest free-agent contracts given out this off-season:

Eric Hosmer - San Diego - terrible team

Yu Darvish - Chicago - likely the best team in NL despite Darvish's mediocre performance and injury

J.D. Martinez - Boston - great year one addition to best team in baseball

Lorenzo Cain - Milwaukee - great year one addition on what is probably the 2nd best team in the NL

Jake Arrieta - Philadelpha - Phillies and Arrieta both faded badly in the second half

Carlos Santana - Philadelphia - Phillies not considered a factor in NL playoff race for a few weeks now

Alex Cobb - Baltimore - worst team in baseball by a large margin

Wade Davis - Colorado - Rockies made a nice run but appear to be fading fast, current playoff odds < 30%

Jay Bruce - New York Mets - The Mets did look pretty good in April

Tyler Chatwood - Chicago - Cubs able to win all those games despite Chatwood not being able to throw strikes

Zack Cozart - Los Angelas Angels - Cozart got hurt and it's been obvious for the last couple months that the Angels were not going to the playoffs

 

All this above wasn't put together to make the argument that free agent dollars aren't worth spending. But clearly in what was a very weak free agent class, it really didn't make much sense for the A's and Ray's to go out and spend money just for the sake of spending money.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Not only did it not make sense for the A's to spend money for the sake of spending money, the A's are probably one of the best teams in baseball precisely because they have a knack for recognizing market inequities and didn't spend money on aging and ineffective "name" players like Cobb, who has been brutally awful for the Orioles this year.

 

Darvish has been hurt and bad. Cozart has been hurt and bad.

 

Eric Hosmer has been (predictably) mediocre

 

JD Martinez and Lorenzo Cain have both been really really good.

 

Jay Bruce....wow, has a -.4 WAR this year. He could be replaced by anyone. Literally anyone, and the team would be better off for it.

 

If they're going to say that teams are underspending.....this isn't the year to make the argument. This was a brutal free agent class, and the results have been savage, as expected. The argument rather should be that players should be paid earlier in their careers (and I think we've been leaning and trending that way for a while now, haven't we?)

[YelichPosse]

Not only did it not make sense for the A's to spend money for the sake of spending money, the A's are probably one of the best teams in baseball precisely because they have a knack for recognizing market inequities and didn't spend money on aging and ineffective "name" players like Cobb, who has been brutally awful for the Orioles this year.

 

Darvish has been hurt and bad. Cozart has been hurt and bad.

 

Eric Hosmer has been (predictably) mediocre

 

JD Martinez and Lorenzo Cain have both been really really good.

 

Jay Bruce....wow, has a -.4 WAR this year. He could be replaced by anyone. Literally anyone, and the team would be better off for it.

 

If they're going to say that teams are underspending.....this isn't the year to make the argument. This was a brutal free agent class, and the results have been savage, as expected. The argument rather should be that players should be paid earlier in their careers (and I think we've been leaning and trending that way for a while now, haven't we?)

 

Chacin and Cain might have been two of the 3 best value signings from the last offseason (of course JD Martinez added to those two). That makes me feel good as a Brewer fan since we usually are in the Jeff's Suppan and Hammonds land of misfit contracts!

 

I think there was a point a few years so where contract values got too far out of hand too fast and this simply is a recognition of that and a market correction, just like any other market or business.

[KeithStone53151]

Not only did it not make sense for the A's to spend money for the sake of spending money, the A's are probably one of the best teams in baseball precisely because they have a knack for recognizing market inequities and didn't spend money on aging and ineffective "name" players like Cobb, who has been brutally awful for the Orioles this year.

 

Darvish has been hurt and bad. Cozart has been hurt and bad.

 

Eric Hosmer has been (predictably) mediocre

 

JD Martinez and Lorenzo Cain have both been really really good.

 

Jay Bruce....wow, has a -.4 WAR this year. He could be replaced by anyone. Literally anyone, and the team would be better off for it.

 

If they're going to say that teams are underspending.....this isn't the year to make the argument. This was a brutal free agent class, and the results have been savage, as expected. The argument rather should be that players should be paid earlier in their careers (and I think we've been leaning and trending that way for a while now, haven't we?)

 

Chacin and Cain might have been two of the 3 best value signings from the last offseason (of course JD Martinez added to those two). That makes me feel good as a Brewer fan since we usually are in the Jeff's Suppan and Hammonds land of misfit contracts!

 

I think there was a point a few years so where contract values got too far out of hand too fast and this simply is a recognition of that and a market correction, just like any other market or business.

 

Not to nitpick, but hard to argue a value contract without including Mikolas.

[KeithStone53151]

MLBPA Files Grievance Against Four Teams Over Revenue Sharing Funds

 

The Major League Baseball Player’s Association has initiated a grievance proceeding against the Athletics, Marlins, Pirates, and Rays regarding those teams’ spending of revenue sharing dollars, according to a report from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

 

This general issue has been percolating for some time, even as additional concerns have arisen as to the pace of free-agent signings over the 2017-18 offseason. The MLBPA reportedly engaged with the league office over the Miami and Pittsburgh organizations’ spending earlier this year.

 

Interesting that three of the four teams have already won more games than last year, and this is with a week of games still to be played.

 

Meanwhile, the 11 largest free-agent contracts given out this off-season:

Eric Hosmer - San Diego - terrible team

Yu Darvish - Chicago - likely the best team in NL despite Darvish's mediocre performance and injury

J.D. Martinez - Boston - great year one addition to best team in baseball

Lorenzo Cain - Milwaukee - great year one addition on what is probably the 2nd best team in the NL

Jake Arrieta - Philadelpha - Phillies and Arrieta both faded badly in the second half

Carlos Santana - Philadelphia - Phillies not considered a factor in NL playoff race for a few weeks now

Alex Cobb - Baltimore - worst team in baseball by a large margin

Wade Davis - Colorado - Rockies made a nice run but appear to be fading fast, current playoff odds < 30%

Jay Bruce - New York Mets - The Mets did look pretty good in April

Tyler Chatwood - Chicago - Cubs able to win all those games despite Chatwood not being able to throw strikes

Zack Cozart - Los Angelas Angels - Cozart got hurt and it's been obvious for the last couple months that the Angels were not going to the playoffs

 

All this above wasn't put together to make the argument that free agent dollars aren't worth spending. But clearly in what was a very weak free agent class, it really didn't make much sense for the A's and Ray's to go out and spend money just for the sake of spending money.

 

I would be curious to see the WAR of each player on that list. Not that WAR tells all, but it's a quick and dirty measure that would tell us enough in this case. I wonder if anyone besides Martinez and Cain cracked 2 WAR.

[YelichPosse]

Not only did it not make sense for the A's to spend money for the sake of spending money, the A's are probably one of the best teams in baseball precisely because they have a knack for recognizing market inequities and didn't spend money on aging and ineffective "name" players like Cobb, who has been brutally awful for the Orioles this year.

 

Darvish has been hurt and bad. Cozart has been hurt and bad.

 

Eric Hosmer has been (predictably) mediocre

 

JD Martinez and Lorenzo Cain have both been really really good.

 

Jay Bruce....wow, has a -.4 WAR this year. He could be replaced by anyone. Literally anyone, and the team would be better off for it.

 

If they're going to say that teams are underspending.....this isn't the year to make the argument. This was a brutal free agent class, and the results have been savage, as expected. The argument rather should be that players should be paid earlier in their careers (and I think we've been leaning and trending that way for a while now, haven't we?)

 

Chacin and Cain might have been two of the 3 best value signings from the last offseason (of course JD Martinez added to those two). That makes me feel good as a Brewer fan since we usually are in the Jeff's Suppan and Hammonds land of misfit contracts!

 

I think there was a point a few years so where contract values got too far out of hand too fast and this simply is a recognition of that and a market correction, just like any other market or business.

 

Not to nitpick, but hard to argue a value contract without including Mikolas.

 

Sorry I automatically erase memories of anything Cardinals do lol. GOod catch though - he seems to be a great signing as well!

[clancyphile]

Chacin and Cain might have been two of the 3 best value signings from the last offseason (of course JD Martinez added to those two). That makes me feel good as a Brewer fan since we usually are in the Jeff's Suppan and Hammonds land of misfit contracts!

 

I think there was a point a few years so where contract values got too far out of hand too fast and this simply is a recognition of that and a market correction, just like any other market or business.

 

I had my doubts about both signings, but am glad to have been proven wrong on them.

 

I think this Brewers team, with a couple of tweaks, could be very good next year - if they can be kept together. If they keep Miley and/or Gio in the fold, this could be a good team. I think the Cubs aren't gonna be able to hold on as much - too old, too many bad contracts.

 

Go with a good-sized payroll in 2019, then replace Moose with Hiura in 2020 (that will be a power decline but another Cain-esque bat), while Stokes and Ray replace Santana and Thames. There may be some offensive degradation (I doubt it), but those who like defense will be happy. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ray get reps at first to be a true Thames replacement (albeit better in the OF than Thames).

[StearnsFTW]

Interesting that three of the four teams have already won more games than last year, and this is with a week of games still to be played.

 

Meanwhile, the 11 largest free-agent contracts given out this off-season:

Eric Hosmer - San Diego - terrible team

Yu Darvish - Chicago - likely the best team in NL despite Darvish's mediocre performance and injury

J.D. Martinez - Boston - great year one addition to best team in baseball

Lorenzo Cain - Milwaukee - great year one addition on what is probably the 2nd best team in the NL

Jake Arrieta - Philadelpha - Phillies and Arrieta both faded badly in the second half

Carlos Santana - Philadelphia - Phillies not considered a factor in NL playoff race for a few weeks now

Alex Cobb - Baltimore - worst team in baseball by a large margin

Wade Davis - Colorado - Rockies made a nice run but appear to be fading fast, current playoff odds < 30%

Jay Bruce - New York Mets - The Mets did look pretty good in April

Tyler Chatwood - Chicago - Cubs able to win all those games despite Chatwood not being able to throw strikes

Zack Cozart - Los Angelas Angels - Cozart got hurt and it's been obvious for the last couple months that the Angels were not going to the playoffs

 

All this above wasn't put together to make the argument that free agent dollars aren't worth spending. But clearly in what was a very weak free agent class, it really didn't make much sense for the A's and Ray's to go out and spend money just for the sake of spending money.

 

I would be curious to see the WAR of each player on that list. Not that WAR tells all, but it's a quick and dirty measure that would tell us enough in this case. I wonder if anyone besides Martinez and Cain cracked 2 WAR.

 

Hosmer bWAR 1.0/fWAR -0.3 (!)

Darvish -0.1/0.2

Martinez 6.1/5.4

Cain 6.8/5.4

Arrieta 2.7/2.1

Santana 1.6/1.9

Cobb 1.2/1.3

Davis 0.9/0.8

Bruce -0.3/0.1

Chatwood -0.1/-0.5

Cozart 0.1/0.3

 

Yikes. Well played, Cubs.

[agent39]

Check out @JoshuaKusnick’s Tweet:

[JosephC]

Interesting that three of the four teams have already won more games than last year, and this is with a week of games still to be played.

 

Meanwhile, the 11 largest free-agent contracts given out this off-season:

Wade Davis - Colorado - Rockies made a nice run but appear to be fading fast, current playoff odds < 30%

 

All this above wasn't put together to make the argument that free agent dollars aren't worth spending. But clearly in what was a very weak free agent class, it really didn't make much sense for the A's and Ray's to go out and spend money just for the sake of spending money.

 

Have to correct the comment from above. Davis turned out to be a good year one add for the Rockies. He had a disasterous stretch in early August and the Brewers caught him at exactly the right time on August 3rd and posted 3 runs against him. 6 days later, Davis gave up another 3 runs against the Dodgers. Davis was near flawless after that. In his last 18 appearances, he posted an 0.50 ERA, a 0.50 WHIP and a 25/2 K/BB ratio. Lights out down the stretch. Rockies went 9-1 to finish the season and are in the playoffs even if they lose today.

 

So it looks like three of the eleven biggest contracts this off-season were year one "wins" for the franchises that signed them. Lorenzo Cain, J.D. Martinez, Wade Davis.

[bill hAll Star]

Interesting that three of the four teams have already won more games than last year, and this is with a week of games still to be played.

 

Meanwhile, the 11 largest free-agent contracts given out this off-season:

Wade Davis - Colorado - Rockies made a nice run but appear to be fading fast, current playoff odds < 30%

 

All this above wasn't put together to make the argument that free agent dollars aren't worth spending. But clearly in what was a very weak free agent class, it really didn't make much sense for the A's and Ray's to go out and spend money just for the sake of spending money.

 

Have to correct the comment from above. Davis turned out to be a good year one add for the Rockies. He had a disasterous stretch in early August and the Brewers caught him at exactly the right time on August 3rd and posted 3 runs against him. 6 days later, Davis gave up another 3 runs against the Dodgers. Davis was near flawless after that. In his last 18 appearances, he posted an 0.50 ERA, a 0.50 WHIP and a 25/2 K/BB ratio. Lights out down the stretch. Rockies went 9-1 to finish the season and are in the playoffs even if they lose today.

 

So it looks like three of the eleven biggest contracts this off-season were year one "wins" for the franchises that signed them. Lorenzo Cain, J.D. Martinez, Wade Davis.

 

This seems to be my job on the message boards as well, but I've been a huge defender of what the Rockies did. It wasn't Stearns-esque brilliant but the analysis that they are just lighting money on fire with their bullpen is a shallow observation.

 

They are paying their starting pitchers $3 million combined. Throw Bettis in there and it's $5 million.

 

They have relatively good control on the rest of their guys except Arenado, who they will at least still have money available to try to throw a massive contract at if they want to.

 

So yeah, the "lol the Rockies are paying $100 million over 3 years for 3 average relievers" brigade is a bit weird. Yeah, maybe they could've gotten creative in some way and paid for just JD Martinez and figured out the bullpen, if their owner wanted to spend that money, it's fine. Doesn't hurt their ability most likely to try to keep their other guys (basically just Arenado) a year or 2 from now and it was their one perceived weakness.