Braves - trade partner?

[Madhawk23]

I know the Braves were brought up in the Moustakas/Shaw thread earlier in the week, so it got me thinking about them more and I'm trying to figure out where they view themselves in their rebuild process? With their new stadium now a year old, it would seem as if they are going to want to put a winning team on the field fairly soon here. As we know, they have a glut of good looking pitching prospects in their system, but not a ton in the way of positional players (outside of Acuna of course).

 

So - is there a scenario at all where the Brewers/Braves could make a deal this off season? Would the Braves have any interest in Santana or perhaps one of our other OF prospects? I know you rarely ever see teams do deals that involve prospects for prospects, so my guess is that it probably wouldn't work in this scenario either.

 

I'm assuming that they'll bring Acuna up at some point this season (maybe early on if he tears it up in ST), and I'm guessing he'll slot into LF for them? Markakis is slotted for RF, but he only has one more year left on his deal. So, is it conceivable that they might have some interest in Domingo?

 

Brewers get: Soroka and Wentz

 

Braves get: Santana and Grisham

 

Now, the Braves probably would have more interest in going after someone like Yelich or one of the F/A OF's (and thus, holding onto their prospects) if they were really serious about getting a big OF bat in their lineup - so the likelihood probably isn't real great that they'd have a ton of interest in Santana. But if they did - would this type of package work out for both sides - or is this too one-sided?

[JosephC]

Wentz and Grisham probably fall in the same category value wise. Both have slipped out of the organizational top 10 listings at Baseball America, but both still probably carry "top 10 organizational" value. That said, Soroka is very likely a #26-#50 pitcher when the updated top 100 lists are released. If in that category, his prospect surplus value would be 34.12 million. I think that's a bit light as a return for Santana.

[Enscheff]

Longtime Braves fan here, just came over to read about your guys' thoughts on the "big move" the Brewers were about to make.

 

I've figured all offseason that the Braves and Brewers match up pretty well in a pitcher for young OFer trade, so I would also like to get your opinions on your main guys that might be available. My gut tells me Santana is the most logical fit, but I'm no expert on the Brewers system.

 

I graded the movement and velocity components of all pitches for all Braves pitchers with available MLB Statcast data here:

 

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7559&highlight=grading

 

A quick synopsis of each young-ish SP who might be interesting to trade partners...

 

Teheran: 40 FA, 55 SI, 40 CU, 45 SL, 50 CH

 

An above average SI, average CH and a usable SL makes Teheran a #4 if he has average or worse command. If he gets back to plus command as he has shown in previous years, he can bounce back to being a #3. I think Teheran is a good buy-low candidate for a team looking to bolster the middle of their rotation without breaking the bank.

 

Folty: 65 FA, 60 SI, 40 CU, 45/50 SL, 50 CH

 

Folty has good stuff, but not as good as I used to think. Two plus fastballs, a usable SL and an average CH should make him a #3 if he has average or worse command. He might never "figure it out" and will be what I call a "stuff #4". I don't think the Braves will trade him this offseason with 4 years of control remaining, as they are still dreaming on his potential.

 

Newcomb: 65/70 FA, 60 CU, 70 SL, 50 CH

 

Newk has TOR stuff. Period. If he continues to post a BB/9 of 5+ he is the most frustrating "stuff #4" in the game. If he improves to Gio-level control (~3.5 BB/9) he is a TOR stud. My money is on him never getting the BBs under control due to the fact that pitchers his age rarely do, unfortunately. His most likely comparable, in my opinion, is Oliver Perez or Jonathan Sanchez, but some team may think they can fix his control.

 

Fried: 40 FA, 60 CU, 55 CH

 

Fried's FA verges on unusable due to a very low spin rate that results in a horribly flat pitch. I would like to see him switch to a SI instead, which I think could be an above average pitch. As is, he is a junk-baller #5 or swing-man if his control stays below average. If he picks up a grade 55 SI and refines his command to average, he can be a legit #3. His most likely comp, in my opinion, is someone like Mike Montgomery or Justin Nicolino.

 

Sims: 40 FA, 50 SI, 45/50 CU, 40 SL, 60 CH

 

Sims needs to ditch the FA and stick with the SI. An average SI along with a plus CH and a usable CU could make Sims a #4 if he has below average command. If he improves his command he could be better. He is a solid buy low candidate for a team who thinks they can improve his sequencing and is looking to round out the back end of their rotation on the cheap.

 

Gohara: 75 FA, 50 SL, 45 CH

 

Gohara is a beast with a closer's FA. The SL grade is misleading due to the fact it is the average of 2 different pitches. The CH is usable. Gohara is already a 2-pitch #3 SP, and as he refines his command and CH he will grow into a TOR stud. I can't imagine the Braves trading him in any trade for any player that is realistically available.

 

As for the prospects, they break down roughly as:

 

Wright FV 60 - Profiles as a 3+ fWAR #2/#3. I have to imagine he and Gohara are the untouchable pitchers.

Soroka FV 55 - Profiles as a 2-3 fWAR innings eater #3/#4 with average stuff and plus command that could lead to being a borderline #2. Comparable to Derek Lowe.

Allard FV 55 - Profiles as an undersized pitch-ability #3/#4. There are questions about his stuff and he already has had 2 back surgeries. This is the guy I would like to see the Braves trade.

Anderson FV 55 - Longenhagen said it best, "This is your stereotypical high-end prep pitching prospect and a potential No. 2 or 3 starter."

Wentz FV 50 - Profiles as a durable #4

 

The Braves are punting 2018, and have already wasted the bulk of Teheran's surplus value by holding him through the rebuild, so I keep thinking something centered around Teheran for Santana makes sense.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think the Braves would have to add a significant prospect to the deal with Teheran to get Santana. I just don't see Teheran as anything more than Chacin, who the Brewers just signed to cheap FA deal.

[Warning Track Power]

To acquire Teheran I wouldn't offer much more than the current version of Corey Ray. I certainly wouldn't offer Santana for a guy who only has two years left of club control.

[Enscheff]

I think the Braves would have to add a significant prospect to the deal with Teheran to get Santana. I just don't see Teheran as anything more than Chacin, who the Brewers just signed to cheap FA deal.

 

While I pegged Chacin as my #1 SP value of this offseason and think it was a good deal for the Brewers, I don't agree that assessment is fair.

 

Teheran is durable, having thrown 185+ innings in 5 consecutive years. His only injury concerns were a knee injury in 2015 that he was able to pitch through. Chacin is not durable, having already missed significant time in multiple seasons.

 

Teheran's contract has 2 years and $23M on it, but the 2nd year is an option, which limits the downside risk substantially. Chacin will be paid $15.5M over the next 2 years no matter what.

 

An argument can certainly (and probably correctly) be made that Teheran may not be worth Santana straight up, but he is definitely worth significantly more than Chacin.

[Enscheff]

To acquire Teheran I wouldn't offer much more than the current version of Corey Ray. I certainly wouldn't offer Santana for a guy who only has two years left of club control.

 

The perception around Santana is that he is a "sell high" candidate (same with Shaw, who the Braves could also be interested in). He isn't as "sell high" as Avi Garcia, but there is a significant chance we just witnessed his career year.

 

A reasonable estimate for Santana over the next 4 years of team control is probably 8 fWAR while being paid something around $30M (HRs are rewarded handsomely in arbitration). That represents roughly $50M in surplus value.

 

If we peg Teheran with $30M+ in surplus value, then I agree, the Braves would have to add a prospect. Assuming that prospect is a pitcher, we are looking at adding a FV 50/55 guy...someone like Allard or Wentz.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think the Braves would have to add a significant prospect to the deal with Teheran to get Santana. I just don't see Teheran as anything more than Chacin, who the Brewers just signed to cheap FA deal.

 

While I pegged Chacin as my #1 SP value of this offseason and think it was a good deal for the Brewers, I don't agree that assessment is fair.

 

Teheran is durable, having thrown 185+ innings in 5 consecutive years. His only injury concerns were a knee injury in 2015 that he was able to pitch through. Chacin is not durable, having already missed significant time in multiple seasons.

 

Teheran's contract has 2 years and $23M on it, but the 2nd year is an option, which limits the downside risk substantially. Chacin will be paid $15.5M over the next 2 years no matter what.

 

An argument can certainly be made that Teheran may not be worth Santana straight up, but he is definitely worth significantly more than Chacin.

 

Point is, 2 years isn't enough. If Brewers are giving up prospects, they're going to want a pitcher (or any player) in return for more years of control than that.

[brewmann04]

I AGREE DS has been a person who wants to acquire Controllable talent

[Point Beer Is Best]

As others have said, the Brewers likely aren't going to give away their best available trade chip for a guy like Teheran with (at most) 2 years of control. That's more of an "all-in" move, and this team is still rebuilding.

[Austin Tatious]

Very good info and analysis, Enscheff. Thanks for the info on the Braves' prospects.

[Enscheff]

As others have said, the Brewers likely aren't going to give away their best available trade chip for a guy like Teheran with (at most) 2 years of control. That's more of an "all-in" move, and this team is still rebuilding.

 

The Yelich trade sure seems like an "all-in" move to me.

[mattyo]

As others have said, the Brewers likely aren't going to give away their best available trade chip for a guy like Teheran with (at most) 2 years of control. That's more of an "all-in" move, and this team is still rebuilding.

 

The Yelich trade sure seems like an "all-in" move to me.

 

Not in the least bit. Hes an all-star caliber player under control for 5 years. He can be flipped for prospects at any time.

[82brewcrew82]

As others have said, the Brewers likely aren't going to give away their best available trade chip for a guy like Teheran with (at most) 2 years of control. That's more of an "all-in" move, and this team is still rebuilding.

 

The Yelich trade sure seems like an "all-in" move to me.

 

Not in the least bit. Hes an all-star caliber player under control for 5 years. He can be flipped for prospects at any time.

No way. They don't give up what they gave up if they don't have more planned.

[Enscheff]

As others have said, the Brewers likely aren't going to give away their best available trade chip for a guy like Teheran with (at most) 2 years of control. That's more of an "all-in" move, and this team is still rebuilding.

 

The Yelich trade sure seems like an "all-in" move to me.

 

Not in the least bit. Hes an all-star caliber player under control for 5 years. He can be flipped for prospects at any time.

 

LOL, they are not going to flip Yelich.

 

I would expect a Cain signing coupled with a Santana trade for pitching, a significant SP signing...perhaps all of those moves.

 

They didn't spend that much prospect capital to stop now, that's for sure.

[Enscheff]

Right so far haha!

[mattyo]

Not in the least bit. Hes an all-star caliber player under control for 5 years. He can be flipped for prospects at any time.

 

LOL, they are not going to flip Yelich.

 

I would expect a Cain signing coupled with a Santana trade for pitching, a significant SP signing...perhaps all of those moves.

 

They didn't spend that much prospect capital to stop now, that's for sure.

 

I wasn't saying they are going to flip him immediately, I said he coudl be flipped at "anytime" over the next 5 years. It is not going all in if you can recoup top prospects for a player down the line.

[JohnBriggs12]

To acquire Teheran I wouldn't offer much more than the current version of Corey Ray. I certainly wouldn't offer Santana for a guy who only has two years left of club control.

 

I think you are way underrating Teheran. The new park in Atlanta is a launching pad.. You need to evaluate his numbers much like you would for a Colorado pitcher. Teheran's road ERA was 3.14 last year. According to B-R he comes with 3 years of control (2 and an option), but he'll hit FA at 30 and chances are Brewers will extend him QO and get a draft pick if he signs elsewhere.

 

Santana straight up for Teheran? In a heartbeat. I'd even throw in Villar or Broxton and a middlng prospect.

[JohnBriggs12]

As others have said, the Brewers likely aren't going to give away their best available trade chip for a guy like Teheran with (at most) 2 years of control. That's more of an "all-in" move, and this team is still rebuilding.

 

Baseball-Reference says Teheran is owed $8 this year, $11 million in 2019, and there's a team option for 2020 for $12 million. That's 3 years according to my math at a very reasonable number at that. Well worth Santana.