Giants acquire McCutchen

[bill hAll Star]

Broxton definitely fits the cost need (for Now).

 

Good enough defense.

 

As I said before, platoon splits are worrisome when handing him an everyday role and trying to win a title as the Giants are.

 

Finally, I’m not sure the Giants will like him much at the plate. They always put good enough contact hitters out there in that park. Broxton is the anti-AT&T park hitter.

 

Beggers can’t be choosers, so maybe they’d trade something to acquire him, but I think they’d maybe be looking at other options.

 

I think Broxton makes so much sense for the Giants. He has the big time speed to cover a ton of ground, not as much as Hamilton but the latter will cost far more in prospects and more in salary as he's already in arbitration. Also with Broxton, I don't think that park will suppress his power much. Most of his HR were not cheap. I know it isn't often, but if he connects...it's going a long way. With Broxton in CF I would say they have plus outfield defense with McCutchen and Pence.

 

Disagree. The Giants are almost always in the top 10 in lowest K%. Usually right around the top 5 for the past decade.

 

Why would they want a guy that strikes out 35% of the time?

 

Now, if he costs them basically a throwaway prospect, sure.

 

On the Giants website, McCutchen is now listed as their starting CF with Parker in LF.

 

They can go out and Dyson who is probably a better defender for cheap. If Dyson costs them $2 million, maybe they'll have to do some sort of trade where they trade trash for trash to save $1 million or something, but all of these options are probably superior to trade for Broxton, which they barely have any ammo left to trade for even though I don't think he's worth too much on the market.

 

Maybe Dyson is more expensive but there are a handful of guys that are on the market right now that are fast and can be had for nothing.

 

Or, there are probably several guys riding the bench for teams or sitting buried in AAA that are fast like Broxton and can muster a .700 OPS like Broxton likely would with an everyday role playing in AT&T park. I'd argue that Gorkys Hernandez who the Giants currently have might make more sense because his style of play fits AT&T park better and he's fine on defense as a CF.

 

Looking at it, they've already signed Alen Hanson, who is a utility man but plays his best defense in CF. With him and Hernandez, they have plenty of defense-only CF that probably don't have the pop Broxton does but their bat is not a huge dropoff due to Broxton's K% and RHP issues.

 

Broxton is a heavy strikeout, solid defensive CF 4th OF or maybe pessimistically a AAAA guy for us. I think the Giants have 3-4 solid/good defensive CF guys that give away a bit in power but put the ball in play enough to not be too much worse of a hitter there. I just don't see the need for the Giants if they're dying to have a faster guy roaming CF. They probably already have several of those guys.

[bill hAll Star]

tldr above:

 

It appears that McCutchen is going to be the Giants' CF.

 

We can go through a lot of other discussion but if they want a defensive CF and McCutchen truly was going to move to a corner, there are cheap defense-only guys on the FA market and available basically for free via trade that can provide basically what Broxton does in that park.

[KeithStone53151]

Broxton definitely fits the cost need (for Now).

 

Good enough defense.

 

As I said before, platoon splits are worrisome when handing him an everyday role and trying to win a title as the Giants are.

 

Finally, I’m not sure the Giants will like him much at the plate. They always put good enough contact hitters out there in that park. Broxton is the anti-AT&T park hitter.

 

Beggers can’t be choosers, so maybe they’d trade something to acquire him, but I think they’d maybe be looking at other options.

 

I think Broxton makes so much sense for the Giants. He has the big time speed to cover a ton of ground, not as much as Hamilton but the latter will cost far more in prospects and more in salary as he's already in arbitration. Also with Broxton, I don't think that park will suppress his power much. Most of his HR were not cheap. I know it isn't often, but if he connects...it's going a long way. With Broxton in CF I would say they have plus outfield defense with McCutchen and Pence.

 

Disagree. The Giants are almost always in the top 10 in lowest K%. Usually right around the top 5 for the past decade.

 

Why would they want a guy that strikes out 35% of the time?

 

Now, if he costs them basically a throwaway prospect, sure.

 

On the Giants website, McCutchen is now listed as their starting CF with Parker in LF.

 

They can go out and Dyson who is probably a better defender for cheap. If Dyson costs them $2 million, maybe they'll have to do some sort of trade where they trade trash for trash to save $1 million or something, but all of these options are probably superior to trade for Broxton, which they barely have any ammo left to trade for even though I don't think he's worth too much on the market.

 

Maybe Dyson is more expensive but there are a handful of guys that are on the market right now that are fast and can be had for nothing.

 

Or, there are probably several guys riding the bench for teams or sitting buried in AAA that are fast like Broxton and can muster a .700 OPS. I'd argue that Gorkys Hernandez who the Giants currently have might make more sense because his style of play fits AT&T park better and he's fine on defense as a CF.

 

Personally, I'd rather take the guy that's 27 and produces at a significantly higher clip over the 33 year old guy who relies purely on speed and isn't productive...but makes contact. Dyson is a 250/325/350 slash line and 25-30 SB, but only if he's part of a platoon as he's dreadful against LHP. Broxton has the big K rate but he makes enough contact to be productive. The only free agent that is clearly ahead of Broxton is Cain. I'd put Gomez/Maybin/Jay in the same value class, but they all get it done differently. The rest are worse than Broxton. Those 3 guys I listed made 8-10 million last year, that's not a sum the Giants can pay and stay below the luxury tax. They could probably opt to grab Austin Jackson, Bourjos, or Dyson if they wanted for less...but they are sacrificing significant production in doing so.

[bill hAll Star]

 

Personally, I'd rather take the guy that's 27 and produces at a significantly higher clip over the 33 year old guy who relies purely on speed and isn't productive...but makes contact. Dyson is a 250/325/350 slash line and 25-30 SB, but only if he's part of a platoon as he's dreadful against LH.

 

I think you're overrating Broxton by a fair margin. Before Broxton went bonkers at Coors Field and Bartolo Colon, there were discussions of cutting him here.

 

But this part about Dyson is interesting because we've openly discussed why Broxton needs to be in a platoon and...Broxton is on the wrong side of the platoon!

 

Dyson currently plays superior defense to Broxton even as of last year (per Fangraphs).

 

I noted above that McCutchen appears to be the CF anyways, but I do think that you might be putting your blinders on with Broxton trying to make something that works out for the Brewers.

 

Dyson is getting older but he's amassed a 14 WAR in his career with seasons of 2 and 3 very recently. Broxton was 0.7 last year.

 

This isn't the perfect situation to use WAR because it's a defense-heavy argument with stadiums and age and platoons factored in, but Broxton is bordering on a AAAA guy, of which there are 20-30 guys to choose from in free agency or cheap in trade if the Giants want a CF.

 

Broxton might struggle to put up a .300 OBP and he's a solid, not spectacular CF. That's not something I see the Giants using their final resources to buy when there are so many other options that offer that.

 

Also regarding the age comment: the Giants just traded for a bunch of older guys. I doubt that signing Dyson, Jackson, or Rajai Davis would be a problem given age, even if there are concerns with speed in CF.

[KeithStone53151]

Age is a much more significant factor to speed guys than power or contact guys. And you are completely discounting Broxton's power. I get there's been a power surge, but Broxton put up 20 HR in about 3/4 of a season worth of at bats. On the offensive side, Broxton is far superior even if he has the same season he did last year. But you forget that Broxton still has upside if the right hitting coach can get things to click for him. And Broxton made a couple bonehead moves on fairly routine plays that likely impacted his defensive ratings. That may still happen, but he's right up there as a defender with Dyson...especially when you consider he has a much better arm and Dyson likely slowing down as he ages.

 

Look at May and June of 2017 splits to see what Broxton is capable of. That's an upside nobody in FA except maybe Cain can even touch. I feel like so many people look at the k rate and WAR and completely discount Broxton as a valuable piece. He's no world beater and I don't expect one of their top 5 prospects in a deal, but we can probably get an arm or outfielder with upside or something like the Lind return if they have talented 17-18 year olds.

[bill hAll Star]

Age is a much more significant factor to speed guys than power or contact guys. And you are completely discounting Broxton's power. I get there's been a power surge, but Broxton put up 20 HR in about 3/4 of a season worth of at bats. On the offensive side, Broxton is far superior even if he has the same season he did last year. But you forget that Broxton still has upside if the right hitting coach can get things to click for him. And Broxton made a couple bonehead moves on fairly routine plays that likely impacted his defensive ratings. That may still happen, but he's right up there as a defender with Dyson...especially when you consider he has a much better arm and Dyson likely slowing down as he ages.

 

Look at May and June of 2017 splits to see what Broxton is capable of. That's an upside nobody in FA except maybe Cain can even touch. I feel like so many people look at the k rate and WAR and completely discount Broxton as a valuable piece. He's no world beater and I don't expect one of their top 5 prospects in a deal, but we can probably get an arm or outfielder with upside or something like the Lind return if they have talented 17-18 year olds.

 

Broxton's been striking out at this rate since he entered professional baseball, other than portions of a few stops in AA where he had only a 25% K-rate instead of 30-35% (38% last year).

 

This is is a one year position opening for CF. This whole thing is becoming hypothetical, because again, the Giants are going to roll with McCutchen in CF, but the Giants will have some money to spend again next year and can keep filling the hole with 1 year options or splurge next year on another long-ish term CF option.

 

So being it a one year position, they can just take a risk that Dyson's speed is still there or that Jackson or somebody like that is still good enough if they did want to fill CF. That's the same risk of Broxton improving his hitting or getting his OBP above .300 against righties.

[Boomer5]

Broxton is projected to be a 0.1 WAR player in 2018 according to Fangraphs.

 

He is tradable due to salary and semi youth, but his return is replacement level or lottery ticket stuff.

[monty57]

I think Stearns will do with Broxton what he did with Lind, which is to trade him for young prospects. I'm fine with that, as he seems to be pretty good at finding good talent at a young age. Also, I think Broxton should have more trade value than Lind, so maybe he gets four teenagers instead of three :-)

 

I know the Giants' farm is pretty barren, but if they have some talented 17-19 year olds at the Rookie/A-ball levels, we could probably strike a deal that could make sense for both sides.

[KeithStone53151]

Broxton is projected to be a 0.1 WAR player in 2018 according to Fangraphs.

 

He is tradable due to salary and semi youth, but his return is replacement level or lottery ticket stuff.

 

Did you even bother to look at how they got to their 0.1 WAR projection, or just stick with the classic "find one stat that supports my opinion and ignore all evidence to the contrary" line of thinking? Fangraphs projects him to hit .213 avg, .312 BABIP, and .376 slugging. All 3 of those are significantly lower than anything he's done in his career to this point. It's almost like fangraphs literally drew numbers out of a hat, as there is no basis for him putting up numbers like that.

 

And as far as his defense, he was a plus defender according to metrics in 2016 and a negative value in 2017. This goes to show how useless defensive WAR metrics are as his defense didn't significantly change from 2016 to 2017. He's an above average defender in CF with that speed, athletic ability, and arm.

 

I think a line of 220/300/400 with 20 SB and above average defense is the minimum production you get from Broxton next year...which is worth more than 1 WAR for those that love that stat. If his BABIP gets closer to his career norm into the 350 range, he's probably an 800+ ops guy and a solid regular on any team. I personally would be inclined to keep Broxton if it weren't for Phillips/Brinson, those guys are the only reason he's expendable.

 

And just to add a note, McCutchen has been told he'll play a corner spot in SF. So they still needs a CF.

[bill hAll Star]

I think a line of 220/300/400 with 20 SB and above average defense is the minimum production you get from Broxton next year...which is worth more than 1 WAR for those that love that stat.

 

That's essentially what he did last year for 0.7 WAR. I'll grant you the better defense so we can round up to 1 WAR.

 

It could just as easily get worse as it could get better, though.

 

So his range is probably .5 WAR to 1.5 WAR.

 

Broxton did have a great 2016, but a lot of his success at the plate came because he was somewhat platooned. Almost half of his PAs came against LHP. Something that you're not really suggesting that he'd be doing in SF. He also had an abnormally high BABIP that got him to that solid hitting line in 2016.

[pacopete4]

Broxton is projected to be a 0.1 WAR player in 2018 according to Fangraphs.

No shocker here. Fangraphs continues to be the devil.

[TURBO]

Andrew McCutchen has been told that he'll play a corner outfield spot with the Giants this season, per Buster Olney of ESPN.

 

That was the expectation following the trade and it's now confirmed. Advanced metrics haven't been kind to McCutchen in recent years, so it would be a lot to ask him to play center field in AT&T Park. The Giants have Gorkys Hernandez and Steven Duggar in-house for center field, but the club continues to be linked to Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson, Jon Jay, and Cameron Maybin in the free agent market. It might not be the big splash with Cain, but it's reasonable to expect them to sign one of them.

 

Source: Buster Olney on TwitterJan 16 - 2:20 PM

 

 

 

Broxton not mentioned on possible CF targets...

[monty57]

Broxton not mentioned on possible CF targets...

 

I don't think that's too telling. If they were looking at major trade, it'd hit the rumor mills, but reporters probably aren't calling their sources asking if they're hearing any rumors about a Broxton-for-low-level-minor-leaguers trade.

[trwi7]

Dyson would be solid for them. Can't hit but can cover ground, which they need in that park.

[MadThinker88]

From the MLBTR chat today...

 

Keon Broxton

4:00 Where am I opening day?

Steve Adams

4:01 Could see him as a fit in San Fran if they can't move any payroll

[Boomer5]

Broxton is projected to be a 0.1 WAR player in 2018 according to Fangraphs.

 

He is tradable due to salary and semi youth, but his return is replacement level or lottery ticket stuff.

 

Did you even bother to look at how they got to their 0.1 WAR projection, or just stick with the classic "find one stat that supports my opinion and ignore all evidence to the contrary" line of thinking? Fangraphs projects him to hit .213 avg, .312 BABIP, and .376 slugging. All 3 of those are significantly lower than anything he's done in his career to this point. It's almost like fangraphs literally drew numbers out of a hat, as there is no basis for him putting up numbers like that.

 

And as far as his defense, he was a plus defender according to metrics in 2016 and a negative value in 2017. This goes to show how useless defensive WAR metrics are as his defense didn't significantly change from 2016 to 2017. He's an above average defender in CF with that speed, athletic ability, and arm.

 

I think a line of 220/300/400 with 20 SB and above average defense is the minimum production you get from Broxton next year...which is worth more than 1 WAR for those that love that stat. If his BABIP gets closer to his career norm into the 350 range, he's probably an 800+ ops guy and a solid regular on any team. I personally would be inclined to keep Broxton if it weren't for Phillips/Brinson, those guys are the only reason he's expendable.

 

And just to add a note, McCutchen has been told he'll play a corner spot in SF. So they still needs a CF.

 

The numbers are the numbers. He isn't an elite defense player and he is super streaky. So you could cherry pick any month and he'd look like Mike Cameron or Thad Bosely.

 

The reality is he an average CF, maybe, and he doesn't make enough contact to be valuable to a team that is all in for a title.

 

However he is a cheap so the luxury tax could give us some traction on the trade market.

[KeithStone53151]

 

The numbers are the numbers. He isn't an elite defense player and he is super streaky. So you could cherry pick any month and he'd look like Mike Cameron or Thad Bosely.

 

The reality is he an average CF, maybe, and he doesn't make enough contact to be valuable to a team that is all in for a title.

 

However he is a cheap so the luxury tax could give us some traction on the trade market.

 

Decent and cheap is the key. The Giants are in penny pinching mode, very little space under the luxury tax. If the Giants made a trade with us for Broxton, I wouldn't be surprised if they asked us to eat most of salary this year even though it's only a league min. I don't think anyone is trying to say he's going to get us a top 5 prospect from them or anything, even from that farm. I think we can get some upside though, some younger players that may or may not develop.

[Boomer5]

 

The numbers are the numbers. He isn't an elite defense player and he is super streaky. So you could cherry pick any month and he'd look like Mike Cameron or Thad Bosely.

 

The reality is he an average CF, maybe, and he doesn't make enough contact to be valuable to a team that is all in for a title.

 

However he is a cheap so the luxury tax could give us some traction on the trade market.

 

Decent and cheap is the key. The Giants are in penny pinching mode, very little space under the luxury tax. If the Giants made a trade with us for Broxton, I wouldn't be surprised if they asked us to eat most of salary this year even though it's only a league min. I don't think anyone is trying to say he's going to get us a top 5 prospect from them or anything, even from that farm. I think we can get some upside though, some younger players that may or may not develop.

 

Any trade involving Broxton is going to be very minor. He just doesn't have enough value outside of his salary.

 

However, there is an opportunity to take back a bad contract in exchange for Broxton if they throw in a real prospect. That goes for any team up against the tax.

[reillymcshane]

As a note, Cot's contracts puts the Giants at $192M in salaries for 2018. They reportedly really want to stay under the $197M luxury cap mark. That leaves them hardly any wiggle room going forward. A minimum salary guy like Broxton is perfect for them.

 

[Warning Track Power]

The numbers are the numbers. He isn't an elite defense player and he is super streaky. So you could cherry pick any month and he'd look like Mike Cameron or Thad Bosely.

 

The reality is he an average CF, maybe, and he doesn't make enough contact to be valuable to a team that is all in for a title.

 

However he is a cheap so the luxury tax could give us some traction on the trade market.

There is only one guy on the roster right now that projects to be Mike Cameron (one of my favorite Brewers of all time) and that is Brett Phillips. If Brett Phillips can put up Mike Cameron's career line of .249/.338/.782 and 162 game average of 23 HR and 80 RBI with that D, you are looking at a starting Brewers OF for the next decade. I would love if Broxton could come close to Cameron's career line, but I just don't see him ever making contact enough to bat higher than .220 on a consistent basis.

[bill hAll Star]

My issue is that the Brewers are going to give a decent value to Broxton that the Giants should have no interest in paying. They could just get a defense-only CF to go with Hanson and Hernandez and just go the defense route or they can wait it out and squeeze Dyson or Maybin in under the threshold.

 

Either get a AAAA for a bag of balls that’s basically the same player as Broxton just with less power or get an equally valuable free agent.

[torts]

I will say, I am VERY excited for cheap tickets to pirates games this year since literally the entire city is fed up with the nuttings. win win win for me

[bill hAll Star]

Austin Jackson, 2 years, $6m to SF.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Austin Jackson, 2 years, $6m to SF.

 

According to this link, Jackson was acquired to be the team's #4 OF https://theathletic.com/219369/2018/01/22/giants-continue-outfield-renovation-with-austin-jackson-but-the-search-for-a-center-fielder-continues/

 

I would imagine if they were interested in Broxton, though, the deal would have already been made.

[pacopete4]

Austin Jackson is fine for them but I just would have thought they'd take a stab at Broxton. He's at league minimum and over the course of a full season, the numbers would be close to what Austin Jackson is going to provide there. Seemed like a slam dunk for Stearns. Oh well.