Brewer pitching prospects -- Starter or reliever?

[adambr2]

Here's some of the Brewers top pitching prospects. Wanted to discuss on some of them whether people see them as future starters or relievers. I'll leave Hader out of this because A) He's not technically a prospect anymore, and B) It's a polarizing discussion typically capable of its own thread.

 

Burnes - Starter, certainly. The only question with Burnes is how high of a ceiling he has as a starter.

 

Ortiz - More conditioning and durability concerns than Burnes but still, starter.

 

Peralta - Freddy is a really interesting prospect to me. His K numbers scream late inning reliever if he doesn't make it in the rotation, but I'd still try to develop him as a starter for at least another year after a successful 2017.

 

T. Williams - Reliever.

 

Medeiros - Reliever. I think they've got to give up on the starting route for Kodi and see what they can get out of him as a late inning guy.

 

Ponce - Starter.

 

Diplan - Now on the 40, so he may get a shot sooner rather than later. After his struggles in 2017, they may want to see what he can bring to the pen with his fastball.

 

Lemons - Starter, but realistically, way too early to tell.

 

Bickford - Kind of a do or die year for him. If his velocity returns, I think his best shot at an MLB future is out of the pen.

 

Yamamoto - Really tough to tell yet with some of these guys at the lower levels, but at this point no reason not to continue to see if he can't turn out to be a solid #4/#5 starter.

 

Pennington -.Still think he's a future reliever

 

Lopez - May be his last big shot this year. Looks more likely to make it out of the pen.

 

Kirby - Rotation, but obviously we have no idea what we have here yet.

 

Houser - Bullpen, perhaps right away.

 

Wilkerson - Starter -- could have an outside shot to compete for a job this year.

 

Derby - Starter, made tremendous strides in the higher levels in the rotation this year. If he's got an MLB future, it's probably as a #5/swingman, but he's still got a shot.

 

 

When you look at how many potential pen options we have internally, both now and upcoming, it may help explain why we haven't been particularly active addressing that in free agency so far this off-season.

[zagski6]

I'll agree with you on all of these. I watched Pennington pitch last year, and I would compare him to Tyler Thornburg. Both are smaller guys who can hit mid-90's easily.

[KeithStone53151]

I've seen Derby pitch in AA, I think he'll be a very solid reliever...I don't think he winds up in the rotation at the MLB level. I also disagree on Peralta, you weren't sure but I'm convinced he'll be a back end bullpen guy. I'm down on Diplan and don't think he makes it, but if he does it's likely in the bullpen.

 

Undersized RH pitchers starting at the MLB level are the exception, not the rule. I naturally tend to pencil guys like this in as relievers right away in my head until/unless they prove otherwise every step of the way.

[FVBrewerFan]

John Perrin? He has four pitches so I see him as a starter.

[DHonks]

Why down on Medeiros? He's 21. If he had gone to college he likely would have signed last July, or would be returning this season. I'd give him this year at least

[WV Brew]

I also think it is way too early to give up on Medeiros. The distance he came last year from where he was in 2016 is tremendous. He probably needs a better changeup to throw to right handed hitters. I saw him almost unhittable at times last year. Also, even if he ends up in the bullpen, he needs the innings he will only get as a starter.

[trwi7]

Why down on Medeiros? He's 21. If he had gone to college he likely would have signed last July, or would be returning this season. I'd give him this year at least

 

What has he shown that gives any indication that he can start? You had people wondering if he could start when he was drafted.

[KeithStone53151]

Why down on Medeiros? He's 21. If he had gone to college he likely would have signed last July, or would be returning this season. I'd give him this year at least

 

What has he shown that gives any indication that he can start? You had people wondering if he could start when he was drafted.

 

Medeiros improved his WHIP from 1.94 in 2016 to 1.31 in 2017 as a 20/21 year old in high A. He also reportedly had improved stuff, I had read previously in 2016 that he dialed things back to try and harness better control. He will be 21/22 this year and like to open either in high A or AA. He also logged 128 innings of pro ball experience

 

The biggest issue I saw with Medeiros last year was the big inning. It was amazing how often he'd allow a combined 5-6 walks or hits and 4 of them would score, especially considering he was pretty good at keeping the ball in the park. That blew up his ERA and made it look much worse than it rightfully should have been. For a purely statistical comparison, Zack Brown pitched to a 1.32 WHIP in Wisconsin last year...had a higher hr/9 rate...and finished with a 3.39 ERA in Wisconsin. That's more along the lines of what I'd expect with that WHIP, 4.98 is unusually high.

 

I think Medeiros is heading into 2018 significantly underrated considering the improvement he made. If he can make more incremental improvements, I suspect we'll easily see it in bottom line results for him this year.

[TJseven7]

Burnes - Starter like him over Woodruff

Ortiz - Starter too young for me to be concerned

FPeralta - ready to fast track him into the pen... arm angle talk concerns me with starters durability but the RHP Hader talk makes me wonder if we could use him as a psuedo deadline addition

T. Williams - Reliever sink or swim active roster or CS closer.

Medeiros - too soon. Love the potential in kodi and he improved. 3 years for him to click and if not then fast tracked as a loogey. I think the latter is reality but I'm pulling for him.

Ponce - Starter and I expect this to happen fast. Back end guy but ready soon. I'm crazy.

Diplan - pen. Dominate in the pen this year or off the 40 man. Bye.

Lemons - Starter, but realistically, way too early to tell.

Bickford - fast track him in the pen

Pennington - pen

Lopez - bust

Kirby - no idea.

Houser - pen. Him and williams fight for 7th spot with gallardo. If a fa or trade add houser williams to AAA as set up and closer.

Wilkerson - new improved espino 2.0. AAAA stashed emergency arm.

Derby - espino 3.0

Perrin - espino 4.0

 

Then there's

Webb - too soon

Supak - pen

murphy - too soon

herrera - too soon

Browns - zach starter daniel rp but too soon

Nick Ramirez - AAAA pen stash

Owensby - pen

 

So yeah I love our stocked up milb pitching and I'm ready to fast track some much needed relief help. Peralta Houser Williams should be pushing for a spot this year.

 

Knebel Hader Suter are safe in the pen. Logan is a 1 year loogey. Barnes needs to improve to hold his spot. Jeffress needs to show up in mke form to see his next 2 years. Gallardo is toast because of houser or williams or a FA 1 year add like Oh. Peralta jumps into the mix mid season... August adds of Williams and Houser and Bickford is on their tail.

[clancyphile]

Based on my Top 25 ballot, here's how I see the pitching prospects still with the Crew:

 

Burnes - #2 starter, possibly TOR

Woodruff - #3 starter

Perrin - #4 starter, possibly #3

Derby - #4/#5 starter

Ponce - #4 starter, possibly #3

Peralta - bullpen ace, righty Hader

Ortiz - #4 starter as floor

Ramirez - lefty reliever - "Toolshed" type player

Greip - closer

Owenby - starter, possible #2/#3

Beckman - reliever

[Eye Black]

Kirby - Rotation, but obviously we have no idea what we have here yet.

Received the Baseball America Prospect Handbook in the mail today, and Nathan Kirby made the Brewers top 30 prospects. I found one sentence in particular fairly encouraging, “He threw well in instructional league after the season with no issues.”

[brewmann04]

I hope Kirby comes back healthy and can become a quality starter.

[adambr2]

Does it not seem like we have more high upside arms in the system than at any time in recent history, or is that just a product of better familiarity and us paying more attention to it than at any time before?

 

Honestly curious about that -- it seems like we could build an entire pitching staff in 2020 off the arms we have on the farm right now, but some are bound to flop. I remember some degree of excitement off the last generation of farm arms -- Scarpetta, Bucci, Rivas, Heckathorn, Arnett, Peralta, etc. Etc. Judging by that list, it obviously did not turn out very well. Hopefully we get more Nelsons and Thornburgs this time.