Arbitration Salaries

[KeithStone53151]

Knebel settled at 3.65 million, which came in about 450k under mlbtraderumors projection. I'm a bit surprised he settled so low considering the season he had, fortunate for the Brewers I guess.

[adambr2]

Yeah, I thought he'd be higher, but at the same time I agree with it being a bit lower because I think 'closer' salaries have gotten a little out of whack in arbitration relative to other relievers. 3.65M is still a nice chunk of change for a first year eligible Super 2.

 

Either way, I'm sure it's probably a thrilling day for him and probably more money than he's made in his lifetime to this point.

[KeithStone53151]

The other 3 guys have signed as well. I've only seen jimmy Nelson reported so far, at 3.7.

[KeithStone53151]

Yeah, I thought he'd be higher, but at the same time I agree with it being a bit lower because I think 'closer' salaries have gotten a little out of whack in arbitration relative to other relievers. 3.65M is still a nice chunk of change for a first year eligible Super 2.

 

Either way, I'm sure it's probably a thrilling day for him and probably more money than he's made in his lifetime to this point.

 

I agree as well. I think he deserved more from the process, but got a reasonable salary based on his talent at this stage of arbitration. His salary will probably balloon next year if he has another big year.

[adambr2]

$2.55M for Villar. A far cry from the $23M extension he turned down, but at least be avoided playing himself into non-tender territory.

 

If he can rebound in 2018 and is offered an extension again, I wonder if his thought process will be a little different this time.

[KeithStone53151]

$2.55M for Villar. A far cry from the $23M extension he turned down, but at least be avoided playing himself into non-tender territory.

 

If he can rebound in 2018 and is offered an extension again, I wonder if his thought process will be a little different this time.

 

I don't know that he'll get that offer again regardless, but we'll see. I'd like to think he's going to show up in the best shape of his career and intent on winning his job back.

[pacopete4]

$2.55M for Villar. A far cry from the $23M extension he turned down, but at least be avoided playing himself into non-tender territory.

 

If he can rebound in 2018 and is offered an extension again, I wonder if his thought process will be a little different this time.

 

I don't know that he'll get that offer again regardless, but we'll see. I'd like to think he's going to show up in the best shape of his career and intent on winning his job back.

 

Hopefully, he has himself in a better place mentally. He is a perfect example of having all the tools but not being able to overcome himself. If he has matured in that sense, I can't wait to see the production he puts out on the field. But for every guy that figures it out, there is probably a dozen who are out of baseball... or something like that.

[monty57]

$2.55M for Villar. A far cry from the $23M extension he turned down.

 

This is what we need to remember every time we hear someone say "I can't believe that player signed an extension for that little." The teams take on a lot of risk, and the player "pays for" that risk by taking less than he'd get on the open market.

 

Interesting that they have come to terms with Villar and Perez after signing Sogard. If they are looking at adding someone else for second base, they'll now either have to trade someone or eat a couple of million dollars.

[nate82]

Interesting that they have come to terms with Villar and Perez after signing Sogard. If they are looking at adding someone else for second base, they'll now either have to trade someone or eat a couple of million dollars.

 

I think the Brewers roster is set offensively and they may add one or two more pitchers if they do add someone in free agency.

[adambr2]

$2.55M for Villar. A far cry from the $23M extension he turned down.

 

This is what we need to remember every time we hear someone say "I can't believe that player signed an extension for that little." The teams take on a lot of risk, and the player "pays for" that risk by taking less than he'd get on the open market.

 

Exactly. I'll never question a player taking security up front. I know it's easy for me to say because I'll never be in that position, but unless I'm being insanely lowballed, give me the lifetime security. 23M is an insane amount, to me at least. The minute I sign, it doesn't matter what happens. As long as I'm smart, my family and I have lifetime security. I never have to worry about where my next check is coming from, and my kids can go to any college they want. That's all I need.

 

Life happens. You could turn down an extension one day and be in a car accident the next day and never play again, you could get injured playing the next year, you could flame out under the pressure to perform, or you could end up like Zach Braddock, with mental issues and ending up broke living out of your trunk. Life can happen no matter how talented you are.

 

Is it really worth risking everything because you might end up making $60M over the same timeframe instead of $23M if everything breaks right? Are you really that much better off even if it does? Is it worth taking that kind of a chance on your Life?

 

To me, it's not. But I respect the player's right to make their own choice on that and live with the consequences of that choice.

[KeithStone53151]

$2.55M for Villar. A far cry from the $23M extension he turned down.

 

This is what we need to remember every time we hear someone say "I can't believe that player signed an extension for that little." The teams take on a lot of risk, and the player "pays for" that risk by taking less than he'd get on the open market.

 

Exactly. I'll never question a player taking security up front. I know it's easy for me to say because I'll never be in that position, but unless I'm being insanely lowballed, give me the lifetime security. 23M is an insane amount, to me at least. The minute I sign, it doesn't matter what happens. As long as I'm smart, my family and I have lifetime security. I never have to worry about where my next check is coming from, and my kids can go to any college they want. That's all I need.

 

Life happens. You could turn down an extension one day and be in a car accident the next day and never play again, you could get injured playing the next year, you could flame out under the pressure to perform, or you could end up like Zach Braddock, with mental issues and ending up broke living out of your trunk. Life can happen no matter how talented you are.

 

Is it really worth risking everything because you might end up making $60M over the same timeframe instead of $23M if everything breaks right? Are you really that much better off even if it does? Is it worth taking that kind of a chance on your Life?

 

To me, it's not. But I respect the player's right to make their own choice on that and live with the consequences of that choice.

 

Putting myself in a players shoes, I think I'd be very inclined to take a team friendly deal that left money on the table but set up me and my family for life from that point forward. You can get greedy on your 2nd deal in your late 20's or early 30's if you really want.

 

But I agree completely, player's can do what they want. Most players have enormous ego's and are very willing to bet on themselves for that reason. I hope Villar bounces back and earns more than the rumored extension through big arbitration raises due to a few big years with the Brewers.

[bill hAll Star]

I'm guessing that the $23 million extension for Villar would've been something like

 

$2 million (last year)/$3 milion/$6 million/$6 million/$6 million? Were there going to be team options on that?

 

This year is huge for him. If he makes it into another year of arbitration, then he's closing in on $10 million since declining the extension.

 

Obviously looking like a dumb decision right now, and a possibility existed that he only got his $500k of last year and was cut from the majors forever, but he most likely will be able to get $8-10 million out of his career if he can hang around just a bit.

 

Also, the team options would be interesting in the rumored buyout. If it's like Chase Anderson's, Villar was probably more likely walking away from $10-15 million guaranteed and not $23.

 

I agree that I'd have taken the certainty, but, "wow, $2.6 million compared to a $23 million extension" is a bit misleading. Could be options and even with a mediocre year he may get his arby picked up by someone and suddenly he's amassed $8 million already as of next year.

[NOMAAM]

That put the team salary a little south of 70 million?

[KeithStone53151]

That put the team salary a little south of 70 million?

 

I think it will be right at 70 million once you factor Perez, I don't think his will be significantly different from projection. Still plenty of room to add some players. I still expect at least one bigger signing or trade to happen, I don't think the team is set as is.

[StearnsFTW]

[

 

This is what we need to remember every time we hear someone say "I can't believe that player signed an extension for that little." The teams take on a lot of risk, and the player "pays for" that risk by taking less than he'd get on the open market.

 

Exactly. I'll never question a player taking security up front. I know it's easy for me to say because I'll never be in that position, but unless I'm being insanely lowballed, give me the lifetime security. 23M is an insane amount, to me at least. The minute I sign, it doesn't matter what happens. As long as I'm smart, my family and I have lifetime security. I never have to worry about where my next check is coming from, and my kids can go to any college they want. That's all I need.

 

Life happens. You could turn down an extension one day and be in a car accident the next day and never play again, you could get injured playing the next year, you could flame out under the pressure to perform, or you could end up like Zach Braddock, with mental issues and ending up broke living out of your trunk. Life can happen no matter how talented you are.

 

Is it really worth risking everything because you might end up making $60M over the same timeframe instead of $23M if everything breaks right? Are you really that much better off even if it does? Is it worth taking that kind of a chance on your Life?

 

To me, it's not. But I respect the player's right to make their own choice on that and live with the consequences of that choice.

 

Putting myself in a players shoes, I think I'd be very inclined to take a team friendly deal that left money on the table but set up me and my family for life from that point forward. You can get greedy on your 2nd deal in your late 20's or early 30's if you really want.

 

But I agree completely, player's can do what they want. Most players have enormous ego's and are very willing to bet on themselves for that reason. I hope Villar bounces back and earns more than the rumored extension through big arbitration raises due to a few big years with the Brewers.

 

Just ask Jon Singleton. He got $10MM and may never play in the bigs.

[JohnBriggs12]

Interesting that they have come to terms with Villar and Perez after signing Sogard. If they are looking at adding someone else for second base, they'll now either have to trade someone or eat a couple of million dollars.

 

I think the Brewers roster is set offensively and they may add one or two more pitchers if they do add someone in free agency.

 

Don't assume that. If they waive a guy and he gets claimed, they are off the hook. That's what happened with Scooter last year.

[JohnBriggs12]

$2.55M for Villar. A far cry from the $23M extension he turned down, but at least be avoided playing himself into non-tender territory.

 

If he can rebound in 2018 and is offered an extension again, I wonder if his thought process will be a little different this time.

 

Sogard posted a .774 OPS vs. RHP in 2017. Perez posted an OPS of .789 vs. LHP in 2017. I'd be much more comfortable starting the year with a Sogard/Perez platoon than sticking Villar back there as starter with the hope he'll revert to the form of a year that he's not come close to at any time in his career before or after.

[pacopete4]

$2.55M for Villar. A far cry from the $23M extension he turned down, but at least be avoided playing himself into non-tender territory.

 

If he can rebound in 2018 and is offered an extension again, I wonder if his thought process will be a little different this time.

 

Sogard posted a .774 OPS vs. RHP in 2017. Perez posted an OPS of .789 vs. LHP in 2017. I'd be much more comfortable starting the year with a Sogard/Perez platoon than sticking Villar back there as starter with the hope he'll revert to the form of a year that he's not come close to at any time in his career before or after.

 

So you’ll use Sogards career year as an example as to why you want him starting vs. RHP but you discredit Villar’s? Don’t let the fact that Sogards career split against RHP of .648 smack you right in the noggin when trying to make a point. Villar is 26. Sogard is 31. Which one of those players has upside and is headed into their prime again? Sogard is a safety valve in case things don’t work out well, or at least he should be. He’s never been very good other than a hot streak last season.

[adambr2]

I honestly believe at this point that the Brewers are anticipating a possible transition/down season. Not saying they don't believe that they can win, but I think Stearns privately sees a regression to a high 70s win team as a possibility. Most of their high end young talent is still anywhere between 1-3 years away, so on some level it's still a waiting and development game despite winning 86 last year.

 

Maybe if they were certain of having Nelson in the mix, they'd be a little more aggressive, but with him being a big question mark this season I'm sure they're realistic about it being an uphill climb for the division this year.

 

Of course, there's still lots of time and players available. If they were to pull a shocker like signing Darvish or trading for Archer, I would guess they'd start to get a little more serious about Neil Walker. But for now there's no reason not to stick with Villar for one more season and find out which of '16 or '17 was the abberation.

[brewcrewdue80]

Kris Bryant just settled at 10.85mil in his 1st year of Arb. What Villar did in 16, 23mil to buy out his team control was under selling his '16. He'd probably been near 4mil with a similar season and more if it were better. Better would have set up his next Arb salaries to be higher rates. 2.55 mil isnt that much from what you'd assume that year's salary was going to be. Another bad year he'll be about 3-3.75 mil next year. A '16 season year he's approaching 8mil. So 6million on the bad side. And with Sogard making 2mil, Villar knows a 2-3million worst case scenario happens for a good 4-5years, as speed gets play. Yeah the above 23million sets him up for life, but he may have looked at as 6-10million sets him up for life regardless. Had he had a '16 season in '17 and the Brewers gave him a 40mil extension and he took it, he's getting a far better return than the loss he takes making 3 million-ish a season for 6years.

[adambr2]

Kris Bryant just settled at 10.85mil in his 1st year of Arb. What Villar did in 16, 23mil to buy out his team control was under selling his '16. He'd probably been near 4mil with a similar season and more if it were better. Better would have set up his next Arb salaries to be higher rates. 2.55 mil isnt that much from what you'd assume that year's salary was going to be. Another bad year he'll be about 3-3.75 mil next year. A '16 season year he's approaching 8mil. So 6million on the bad side. And with Sogard making 2mil, Villar knows a 2-3million worst case scenario happens for a good 4-5years, as speed gets play. Yeah the above 23million sets him up for life, but he may have looked at as 6-10million sets him up for life regardless. Had he had a '16 season in '17 and the Brewers gave him a 40mil extension and he took it, he's getting a far better return than the loss he takes making 3 million-ish a season for 6years.

 

If he has another bad year he's not getting 3-3.75, he's getting non-tendered and then just hoping to get a major league deal wherever he can get it.

 

He wasn't guaranteed 6-10M when he turned down 23 and isn't guaranteed it now. Had he not somewhat rebounded in the 2nd half and played like he did in April and May all year he could have been non-tendered already.

 

No way does he put up another season similar to '17 and still get tendered at 3M+.

[adambr2]

$1.975M for Perez.

[dacbrewers]

I was really surprised Knebel just gave in and signed what he was offered. At the very least, throw out a higher number than the offer and go to arbitration.

[adambr2]

I was really surprised Knebel just gave in and signed what he was offered. At the very least, throw out a higher number than the offer and go to arbitration.

 

Or the far more likely scenario is that the Brewers were going to offer a lower number, Knebel was going to ask for a higher number, and 3.65M is what they settled on.

[brewcrewdue80]

Kris Bryant just settled at 10.85mil in his 1st year of Arb. What Villar did in 16, 23mil to buy out his team control was under selling his '16. He'd probably been near 4mil with a similar season and more if it were better. Better would have set up his next Arb salaries to be higher rates. 2.55 mil isnt that much from what you'd assume that year's salary was going to be. Another bad year he'll be about 3-3.75 mil next year. A '16 season year he's approaching 8mil. So 6million on the bad side. And with Sogard making 2mil, Villar knows a 2-3million worst case scenario happens for a good 4-5years, as speed gets play. Yeah the above 23million sets him up for life, but he may have looked at as 6-10million sets him up for life regardless. Had he had a '16 season in '17 and the Brewers gave him a 40mil extension and he took it, he's getting a far better return than the loss he takes making 3 million-ish a season for 6years.

 

If he has another bad year he's not getting 3-3.75, he's getting non-tendered and then just hoping to get a major league deal wherever he can get it.

 

He wasn't guaranteed 6-10M when he turned down 23 and isn't guaranteed it now. Had he not somewhat rebounded in the 2nd half and played like he did in April and May all year he could have been non-tendered already.

 

No way does he put up another season similar to '17 and still get tendered at 3M+.

 

Wilmer Flores went from 2.2 to 3.4mil this year for a guy who played 110 games and value to -.2 BWAR. Villar has a year to at least bank on that was worth something. Flores? never worth over 1BWAR in any season.

 

Up the middle players with any upside have value over 4million to teams. Eric Sogard is beyond worse and yet gets 2.4mil to be likely bad. Howie Kendrick is signed for 2/7mil or 3.5mil a year. 34years old and a 1.25 BWAR avg the last 3 years with a career .755 OPS. When an average ML salary is around 4million, you're not going to see a Villar dropped/non-tendered below that.