Sports Betting

[RobDeer 45]

Hopefully it's ok to start a thread about betting on sports!

 

Anyone on here dabble in this trade? One of my favorite times of year to do a couple parlays is during the NFL playoffs. I only do a handful of bets a year, and always small dollar amounts, but it's fun for me.

 

Thought I'd start a thread where we could discuss sporting events that we might try to make more interesting.

 

Anyone have any strong thoughts on the NFL games this week?

 

ATL -2.5 vs PHI

TEN +13.5 vs NE

JAX +6.5 vs PIT

NO +4.5 vs MN

[stoutdude04]

The under in Minnesota.

 

I think Atl and New England both cover. The other 2 I am staying away from.

[RobDeer 45]

I do think the Under for sure in MN, but I also think that MN is a good bet to cover. I think they are really dangerous.

 

I agree and think NE is going to make a statement in round one, so that game should be a blowout.

 

I'm nervous about that ATL PHI game. I'm not buying in that all the sudden ATL is ready to make a run at the super bowl after being pretty gross all year.

 

That JAX PIT game, I have no clue.

[stoutdude04]

I would agree on Atlanta, but I don't trust Foles one bit. Philly D is tough, but again, Foles. If the line was around 6 or 7 I probably wouldn't touch it, but since its 2.5 I feel good that Atlanta can hit on that one.

 

BTW, I am up around 600 betting Wisconsin Basketball this year. Early in the year their lines were way off and even now they are getting a ton of favorable lines...for taking the opponent.

[RobDeer 45]

Interesting on WI! Thanks for the info.

[KeithStone53151]

Once we get deep into the season(playoffs included), I tend to bet against what the crowd is thinking on given games. New England is the exception, they are generally a surefire bet to cover. With a week off and Tennessee dinged up, I don't think they could set that line high enough for me to not want to bet it. I also especially like Philly in this game. Atlanta's biggest margin of victory outside a dome was 6 points, and that was week 1 against the Bears. They won plenty of outdoor games, but Philly is a better team than most prior competition. I'm thinking they have a good chance to lose, and if they win it will probably be by 3 or less points. Far more chances to win than lose.

 

Those 4 lines, I'd go New England, Philly, Pittsburgh, New Orleans. Picking Pittsburgh goes against my "don't take the obvious pick" rule, but how in the world can you bet on Bortles on the road in cold weather in the playoffs? That game feels like 23-3. I also agree with stoutdude, the under on the points spread for whatever the line ends up being on the Minnesota game is probably a good bet. Given I expect low scoring, I think it's wise to take the points. Also to take the better QB/Coach combo.

[owbc]

I have placed exactly one sports bet in my life...I put $50 against the Packers last month (+6.5 vs. Minnesota) when I was at the MGM in Vegas. That was the easiest ~$40 I ever won. At least the Packers were good for something this year.

 

I immediately blew the winnings on roulette.

[stoutdude04]

Haha. I enjoy betting because I get an excuse to look and dig deeper into stats, and I love stats.

 

A lot of the 'easy' money can be found in the lower levels of the NCAA. Everyone thinks they can bet the teams they are most familiar with, but that's typically wrong. I did pretty well betting the over whenever Wily pitched and have done well betting against Wisconsin this year, but I uaually don't do well betting baseball or betting badger games.

[Jimbo]

Haha. I enjoy betting because I get an excuse to look and dig deeper into stats, and I love stats.

 

A lot of the 'easy' money can be found in the lower levels of the NCAA. Everyone thinks they can bet the teams they are most familiar with, but that's typically wrong. I did pretty well betting the over whenever Wily pitched and have done well betting against Wisconsin this year, but I uaually don't do well betting baseball or betting badger games.

 

Mid-major college basketball has good value because most people prefer to wager on big name teams/games on TV. The bookies won't put as much as effort into analyzing the lesser interesting games.

 

Baseball is the most difficult due to all the variables that go into a game (lefty/righty starter, home field, bullpen availability, etc.)

[GAME05]

I used to bet sports, maybe $400 per week or so. I did a little better than 50% and the vig brought me back down to even. I always kept a spreadsheet on every penny I wagered. Once I did it long enough that breaking even was more a trend than an anomaly, I just stopped bothering.

 

Although my personal rule for betting on Wisconsin teams was that I would only ever bet on them to not cover. I didn't want homerism to get in the way of making a right decision.

[homer]

I used to bet sports, maybe $400 per week or so. I did a little better than 50% and the vig brought me back down to even. I always kept a spreadsheet on every penny I wagered. Once I did it long enough that breaking even was more a trend than an anomaly, I just stopped bothering.

 

Although my personal rule for betting on Wisconsin teams was that I would only ever bet on them to not cover. I didn't want homerism to get in the way of making a right decision.

 

 

I think the trap a lot of people fall into is making bets just for the sake of making bets. And I get it - I do it all the time when I go to Vegas. I think if you want to beat the house you need to go large when you think you have the odds in your favor and stay out if you are just flipping a coin. Easier said than done obviously.

[stoutdude04]

Another favorable line against the Badgers tonight.

[stoutdude04]

I never bet NBA...but I see Houston plus 6.5 at Dallas. I think, okay, seems safe enough. Up 18 with 2 30 to play and win by 7...

 

Also...has anyone else been keeping an eye on these Badger lines? If the line is less than 15 against MSU I think it's a gimme.

[RobDeer 45]

Anyone got any easy money in the first round of the NCAA tournament?

[stoutdude04]

Thought kansas would be. Sweating it now.

[RobDeer 45]

Man, I'm not finding a lot I like for today!

[stoutdude04]

Yea, I went 3-1-1 yesterday. Took Witchita State and Cinci, but I think I took those just to put some in instead of lines I actually liked.

[RobDeer 45]

Thought I'd bump this for some Super Bowl Betting chat. My wife and I always like to do some Super Bowl props. We've had a lot of luck on the national anthem and coin toss over the years.

 

I see the line is Pats -3 and over under at 58.

 

We'll have to revisit, closer to the game.

[KeithStone53151]

I weirdly think the under is a very good bet here. The Rams front 4 will probably beat the Patriots o-line more often than not, which should neutralize the running game much moreso than against KC...and frankly you can't beat Brady if you need to rush more than 4 to get consistent pressure. So again, Rams front 4 could make this look like Patriots vs Giants in 2007. As for the Patriots defense, I think their complex schemes and Goff not being as good a QB lets the Patriots slow the Rams passing game down significantly. I think the key will be the Patriots stopping the run, CJ and Gurley have been quite the 1-2 punch. The Patriots also tend to struggle covering RB out of the backfield, you might see Gurley with a 7-8 catch day.

 

If I were to bet, I'd take the Rams +3 and the under. I would feel much better about the under than about the Rams though. Frankly, it's a close matchup and I'd simply prefer to grab the points if I had to pick. Also, I'd be all over Gurley if anybody does Draftkings/Fanduel.

 

Please take all this with a grain of salt, football is very secondary for me...I'm much more baseball.

[tmwiese55]

Tough lines to me. My gut right away went to Rams and the Over. So, most likely do the opposite, haha. But in a dome stadium I think the over should be a good bet. Gurley with 2 weeks off should be healthy. Really I'd probably stay away, but as OP said the fun often comes in the props with the SB anyway.

[DHonks]

I've been doing well with Marquette. Their FT shooting has been very helpful. I've lost too many games with other teams missing FT in the last 2 mins. N Kentucky has been pretty good, N. Colorado, Murray St, Big Sky Conference, WCC, etc. The Brewers were great last Sept. I'll bet they were dogs at least 2/3rds of the season, and most of Sept they were dogs yet were winning.

 

Mich St has been great as well. I did well on some Badgers losses (like Minnesota), but couldn't bring myself to take the Michigan line (Mich -2 wasn't enough)

[swab]

Big fan of sports investing here. I like the Duke Under (got 165 on my end) and Wash St. +4.5 tonight.

 

Baseball is my favorite. I have a friend (and this is no joke), he has only seen one Brewers loss if he has been at the game. I went to 15 games with him between '07 and '12 and they never lost. It was awesome and I don't usually bet to streaks like that. His one loss was in 2017. I told him I need to get back to seeing games with him!

[swab]

Go Minnesota tonight. Love the spot as a home dog with UM having a big matchup on tap.

[stoutdude04]

Go Minnesota tonight. Love the spot as a home dog with UM having a big matchup on tap.

 

Good call on the under and Wash St. I took both of those last night. Also took Cuse' and Marquette...but also Nevada. Oops.

[tmwiese55]

Essentially the Bucks have been winning almost all games (when they win) by above 10 points and have been remarkably consistent and focused all year. Seems like a good idea to just keep riding them whenever they're under a 11 pt fave vs mediocre to bad teams. Games tonight vs Bos as 5 pt faves is up in the air since it's a good opponent, but I'd still just do it an live with it.

 

Quick google and it looks like Bucks have covered 63% of games. Another trend is 12-2 ATS after a loss. Pretty much the only time to not bet them is in a B2B and I'd say if they get a 15 type point line when you just don't know what will happen at garbage time.

 

ETA: Just ran through game logs and looked at game when they were 10 pt fave or less, including when they were dogs. Overall 32-17-2. In the losses you'd have easily been able to avoid the game when Giannis sat vs WAS, the game Giannis sat vs Orl in a B2B, the B2B vs MIA, two games vs Indy (good opponent like Bos tonight), and one vs Tor (though they covered all other vs Tor I think).

 

So the Indy/Tor ones maybe are like tonight when you just do it and live with it or just stay away since it's a good opponent and just wait until they're a 7 pt fave vs Det, BKN, etc and clean up then. But take out the obvious avoided games in the no Giannis and Miami and you're at 32-14-2 and it's 70%. And it's even more drastic lately as they've covered 8/9.