Brewers Free Agent Signing Prediction Thread

[brewcrewdue80]

From the Start I've been chiming Lynn more than anyone else. 4-70million. You get a workhorse who I think is miffed about his time in St. Louis. Name him you OD starter, give him a "you're the guy" feeling and watch him put together nice season, after nice season. He's the only FA SP who gives you 33 start confidence for the next 3 years.

 

Agreed, I would love to add Lynn.

 

Anderson

Lynn

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

 

I just don't think that is a World Series type of rotation, or possibly not even a "make it to the wildcard type of rotation."

 

Without a true TOR type guy, our chances are slim with that exact rotation in place.

 

But now insert Yelich in to the Brewers lineup. I mean, the post-season results from Kershaw and in this year's WS by Darvish show the Aces can be beaten with offenses. Something there is a lot of promise on this Milw team. You're keeping Hader in the bullpen with Kneble. You can't expect much better a duo looking forward or around on Playoff expected teams. Give me that lockdown for 5 more years vs. Trading away top 10 prospects to acquire 1 at the deadline. That rotation is a lot better than what we have rolled with in the Division winning season and the Wild Card season to start the season.

[JohnBriggs12]

Winner winner chicken dinner! Missed by one year and 1 million AAV.

[brewerfan82]

Agreed, I would love to add Lynn.

 

Anderson

Lynn

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

 

I just don't think that is a World Series type of rotation, or possibly not even a "make it to the wildcard type of rotation."

 

Without a true TOR type guy, our chances are slim with that exact rotation in place.

 

But now insert Yelich in to the Brewers lineup. I mean, the post-season results from Kershaw and in this year's WS by Darvish show the Aces can be beaten with offenses. Something there is a lot of promise on this Milw team. You're keeping Hader in the bullpen with Kneble. You can't expect much better a duo looking forward or around on Playoff expected teams. Give me that lockdown for 5 more years vs. Trading away top 10 prospects to acquire 1 at the deadline. That rotation is a lot better than what we have rolled with in the Division winning season and the Wild Card season to start the season.

It's always possible a big pitcher becomes available via trade mid-season too to round out the rotation if it's looking like we're that one piece away.

[pogokat]

Winner winner chicken dinner! Missed by one year and 1 million AAV.

 

pretty darn accurate guess

[pogokat]

There were several close to the brewers offer to Darvish in here.

 

Everyone should place their bets on how much we are gonna overpay for Arrieta/Cobb/Lynn now

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

There were several close to the brewers offer to Darvish in here.

 

Everyone should place their bets on how much we are gonna overpay for Arrieta/Cobb/Lynn now

 

I'll go 3 years/$70 million for Arrieta.

[nate82]

There were several close to the brewers offer to Darvish in here.

 

Everyone should place their bets on how much we are gonna overpay for Arrieta/Cobb/Lynn now

 

I hope the Brewers just stay away from all three but especially stay away from Lynn. Lynn is just another Lohse type and people have suspicions why the Cubs haven't offered Arrieta deal but don't have suspicions why Lynn hasn't even gotten a call from the Cardinals? The Cubs at least contacted Arrieta so he would have been their backup plan if they couldn't get Cobb or Darvish. The Cardinals are not even looking at Lynn as a possibility for their rotation. Hello red flags there!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

There were several close to the brewers offer to Darvish in here.

 

Everyone should place their bets on how much we are gonna overpay for Arrieta/Cobb/Lynn now

 

I hope the Brewers just stay away from all three but especially stay away from Lynn. Lynn is just another Lohse type and people have suspicions why the Cubs haven't offered Arrieta deal but don't have suspicions why Lynn hasn't even gotten a call from the Cardinals? The Cubs at least contacted Arrieta so he would have been their backup plan if they couldn't get Cobb or Darvish. The Cardinals are not even looking at Lynn as a possibility for their rotation. Hello red flags there!

 

I agree. But I think it's just perhaps irrational fear of Cardinal pitchers coming to the Brewers. The last few haven't exactly worked out too great. Yes, I know Suppan and Lohse were OK for a couple years, but we wouldn't be signing Lynn to be just OK. He would need to be a #2/#1 for us, and I just don't think he's that type of pitcher. I'd much rather sign the more-proven Arrieta, or the upside of Cobb, or trade for the upside of Archer or Salazar.

[Dadbauer]

Lohse was 34 when the Brewers signed him and pitched GREAT for two years. Lynn is is 30. If we signed Lynn and got anything close to the production we got out of Lohse for two years it is well worth it.

[SRB]

Lynn is full of red flags. 4.82 FIP/4.75 xFIP last season. Those are very bad regardless of how much one believes in advanced metrics. I can buy that he is unusually good at keeping flyballs in the park so he has outperformed his xFIP in his career, but the point is he is trending in the wrong direction.

 

All depends on the contract, I suppose.

 

I've probably posted it a 100 times by now, but if we are signing any free agent SP, Jaime Garcia screams out the best value. He's as good as Cobb/Lynn and (based on media chatter at least) could be had at a fraction of the cost.

 

Lord knows why anyone wants Andrew Cashner. I remember years ago when he had huge promise, but have you seen his stats last season? He nearly accomplished the rare feat of having a higher BB/9 than K/9: 4.6 K/9 vs. 3.5 BB/9.

[ougiqbxy]

I'd be very happy with Cobb somewhere around 4/56 and that is my prediction the Brewers land him for. I fear the Twins and Brewers will drive his price up, however.

 

Please, for the sake of my sanity, do not come near Arrieta with his price tag. (I may be convinced he has value if he would come in around Cobb's and Lynn's price tags.)

 

Lynn is just about the same for me, but would be an easier swallow just because it would not be as much money as Arrieta.

 

If we had a non-guaranteed 1 year/$4 million offer for Garcia, I would agree that would be the best value, but Garcia offers no upside past being our number 4/5 pitcher. It's the reason he isn't garnering more attention.

[brewmann04]

I think it be Lynn or Cobb at this point

[brewcrewdue80]

Lynn is full of red flags. 4.82 FIP/4.75 xFIP last season. Those are very bad regardless of how much one believes in advanced metrics. I can buy that he is unusually good at keeping flyballs in the park so he has outperformed his xFIP in his career, but the point is he is trending in the wrong direction.

 

All depends on the contract, I suppose.

 

I've probably posted it a 100 times by now, but if we are signing any free agent SP, Jaime Garcia screams out the best value. He's as good as Cobb/Lynn and (based on media chatter at least) could be had at a fraction of the cost.

 

Lord knows why anyone wants Andrew Cashner. I remember years ago when he had huge promise, but have you seen his stats last season? He nearly accomplished the rare feat of having a higher BB/9 than K/9: 4.6 K/9 vs. 3.5 BB/9.

 

 

I mean, Alex Cobb was absolute trash in 2016 coming back from TJ. Is he an 8+ERA pitcher with 6+Fip?

 

How many pitchers(if any) have come back from TJ and pitched 33 games the next season? Lynn did it to the tune of 14.2 IP 15 ER his final 4 starts.

 

10 of 11 games started prior to that he allowed 2 ER or less with the 1 being just 4ERs. Those 10 were 70IP 11ER Which is a 1.41 ERA in 10/11 games. Add the "bad" game it is a 1.88ERA over 11 game stretch before wheels falling out.

 

All told 6 of his 33 starts were 4 Earned runs or more with the other 27 being 3 runs or less. 3 games of 7,7, and his Sept .2IP 8ER. The other 3 were 4ER games.

 

Chase had 4 of those games 4,4,4,and 6.

Nelson had 7 of those games 7,5,4,4,4,4, and 9.

Davies had 9 of those games 6,5,4,4,4,7,4,5,6 and 6. in 33 starts.

 

Go to Lynn's 2015 and he had 6 in 31 starts. 6,5,5,5,4, and 6.

 

All told that is 52 of 64 starts he allowed 3 earned runs or less.

 

Arrieta had 7 starts of 30. 4,5,5,4,4,4,5 Only 3 September starts with 2 allowing 3ERs in 2.1 and 3IP starts. so near 9/30 starts.

 

You know the only one coming back from Tommy John in '17 was? Lynn who maintained similar velocity in '17 than in '15.

 

Maybe St. Louis isn't in on Lynn because of their current payroll already being at where they've started Opening Day the last 2 seasons. Maybe it's on their general philosophy to not resign their FAs. They have a Woodruff of their own in Luke Weaver plus another SP in Jack Flaherty who is on the cusp of ML time. They had one of the best SP prospects to head in to '17 in Alex Reyes about to enter their rotation but had TJ. The Cardinals don't need Lynn for next 4 years. The Cubs did need Arrieta or someone as they have no one in AAA knocking at the door. And they have multiple more under 24 who are going to be pushing for time.

 

The guy has 1 season of a whip over 3.5 and he's crap moving forward. Yet in the Darvish thread, you expect Arrieta to get paid as much or worth more? Know who's older? Arrieta by a full year. Who's 2 year run is the only time his Fip was under 3.5 and coming off 4.16 Fip this year.

 

If I'm going to get a guy for 4/60 vs a guy for 5/110 I'll take the one who has a better history when it comes to consistency and also younger for less money.

 

FWIW Lohse never once! in his career had a Fip below 3.5 of course it was 3.51 the season before we signed him.

Jeff Suppan's BEST Fip was 4.29! 17year career never under 4.29 Fip.

 

Lynn's career Fip sits at 3.64 after his bad 2017.

[adambr2]

I have a hard time using the Suppan signing to justify anything. That was just kind of a poor emotional choice made more less to try to put Milwaukee on the baseball map, with absolutely no analytical backing

 

It really goes to show how much things have changed in the last 11 years. I don't remember exactly what the reaction was like here but I'm pretty sure it was mostly excitement. If we made the same move today, I think the reaction would be much different. Not only do you have smarter and better informed front offices today, you've got smarter and better informed fans.

[brewcrewdue80]

I have a hard time using the Suppan signing to justify anything. That was just kind of a poor emotional choice made more less to try to put Milwaukee on the baseball map, with absolutely no analytical backing

 

It really goes to show how much things have changed in the last 11 years. I don't remember exactly what the reaction was like here but I'm pretty sure it was mostly excitement. If we made the same move today, I think the reaction would be much different. Not only do you have smarter and better informed front offices today, you've got smarter and better informed fans.

 

It goes towards the perception here against a Lynn signing because he's pitched for St. Louis and all of the signings from them turn out like crap so Lynn will be just like that. He's younger and better than both at the time, but gets no respect here aside from myself and maybe 2 or 3 others.

 

His last 5 seasons starting full year he's averaged 188.2IP.

 

Cobb has never pitched 188 in any full season.

Odorizzi has gone 187.2 as his highest with a 4.22 career Fip

 

Archer beats Lynn in this category with 202.1 IP average his last 4 years starting. But he'll cost a good majority of our top prospects being just 1 year younger than Lynn w/o TJ in his past. And add his Hard hit/HR rate trends.

 

I compare the two as both not being the ToR you want in the Playoffs. But undeniably they will help your team through a full season in quality and decent to start in a 7 game series.

 

I didn't do Archer in my previous post well he had 9 games last season out of 34: 4,5,6,4,4,4,4,6, and 5.

His September was 6 starts 21.2IP 18ERs with 4 of those 6 starts not going over 4IP 0 yes 0, 3, 4, and 3.2.

1 QS 6Ip 2ER

 

That's for the ToR people that want Archer as your Wild Card Playoff game starter.

He was better in '16 but all of his Sept starts he gave up 2 or 3ERs not one 0 or 1 Run game(see my TOR post thoughts)

 

'15 only 1 QS in September-31 IP 20ERs

'14 he was quality 5 of 6 in September-33.1 IP only 11 ERs (6 in his bad game)

'13 Just 2 of 6 QS in September- 26.1 IP 14 ERs

 

I get we would like an Ace/ToR type for a 1 game playoff but, I see more of, you don't need that 1 game guy if you go out and win your Division. Lynn is quality on accomplishing that, a reason he's 72-47 for his career. 11-8 last year.

 

Winning 60% of your decisions is a 97win team pace. Yeah I'll take that over the next few seasons with Burnes/Peralta still in our system with the hopes Burnes takes a future ToR as Lynn fades.

[Eye Black]

There were several close to the brewers offer to Darvish in here.

 

Everyone should place their bets on how much we are gonna overpay for Arrieta/Cobb/Lynn now

Well I was way over on AAV, but I did mention the opt out after year two... okay, I realize no one is likely impressed.

 

Here is what I think the three you mentioned will receive, whether the Brewers would be willing to match any of these is anyone’s guess?

 

Jake Arrieta: 4 years, $92 million

 

Alex Cobb: I’ll stick with my original “4 years, $58 million”, although the years seems too high now. If he only gets 3 years, I would expect something like 3 years, $48 million.

 

Lance Lynn: 3 years, $43.5 million

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I'm thinking they sign Cobb. 4 years, $60mm with incentives to get to $68mm. Don't know if that's good or not...I just think they will take a shot.

[TJseven7]

Jaime Garcia 12/2...as in 6 mil aav... 2nd year 1 mil buyout.

[pogokat]

Nunez is official to the red sox, 2 years, 8 million (hey, i nailed the money)

 

There will obviously continue to be a waterfall of signings in the next week or so

[Mr Southpaw]

Just sign Cobb. 5 years $76 (year 5 is 14 mill) with a fifth year team option and a $4 mill buyout. Basically 4 years at $66 mill.

 

I keep going up just a little, but I do want another starter and Cobb is semi-affordable.

[TJseven7]

I'm really hopeful its Cobb... I'll go 64/4.

[TJH123]

My prediction: they don’t sign anybody even though i want them to. I hope I’m wrong but the more time that passes the less confident I am. I feel like Arrieta is too expensive for Stearns and Cobb is cheap enough where I feel like if they really wanted to sign him they easily could have by now. We’ll see and I hope they sign Cobb and also make a trade for a TOR arm w/o giving up Burnes, Hiura, or Lutz.

[pogokat]

Joey Meyer very close on Jake Arrieta here!

 

We’re almost out of free agents, and I gotta say, I cannot wait for this dumb offseason to be over.

[brewmann04]

Me either but it will be frustrating to see us not adding an of the 3 Pitchers were out there

[Eye Black]

Very first post in the thread (guess was 4yr / $58 million) I missed the Cobb deal by just $1 million total. Obviously didn’t get the team correct, but I will take it for what was my closest FA prediction of the offseason.