Revisiting the 2011 MLB Draft

[pacopete4]

With the release of Taylor Jungmann today it begs the questions, was the 2011 draft the worst ever for the Brewers?

 

-They selected 12th and 15th in that draft and both selections (Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley) have had zero impact at the Major League level. (Jungmann now in Japan and Bradley in the Baltimore)

-Jacob Barnes might be the best of the bunch selected 431st in the Draft.

-Jorge Lopez and Nick Ramirez might be the remaining bunch of talent that could get to the bigs and do something.

-The rest of the list, unless I am missing someone, is just a group of names.

 

Yikes, was that draft awful. You just have to do better than that with how big of a market we are in.

[chuckiehacks]

They did a great job with unsignable guys, though - Carlos Rodon and Mallex Smith.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Jungmann had a very nice 2nd half in 2015, so at least he made somewhat of an impact. Bradley retired in May. Lopez still has a shot as a possible reliever. Gagnon, Goforth and Reed have had cups of coffee. Houle has a chance. Mallex Smith and Carlos Rodon are quality major leagues. Wish they would have signed. David Lucroy at least looks like his brother.

[monty57]

This was at a "win now" time for the Brewers where they were more interested in "low ceiling / high floor" guys who could make it to the majors quickly than in picking the best talent. I'm happy that we're running things differently today than we did back then.

[DocLuna7]

I think Eric Arnett as number one pick might still be the worst individual draft selection by the Brewers ever.

[nate82]

Its not like the 2011 draft was all that good anyways where the Brewers were picking. I know the Brewers were really interested in Lindor that year but he didn't fall to the Brewers. Beyond Lindor and Fernandez there were a bunch of disappointments in that draft.

 

The highest WAR is by Anthony Rendon the 6th pick in the draft for the first round picks and the highest goes to Mookie Betts who was drafted in the 5th round. From the 2nd-4th round there wasn't a single player who had more than 7 WAR. The first round only has a total of 7 players who have more than 10 WAR so far and the majority of those players were picked before the Brewers even picked.

 

From the first round of the 2011 draft I think there is maybe only one player who is currently playing who has a chance to be a hall of fame type of a player and that is Lindor who was picked 8th.

 

The Brewers had a bad draft there but looking back at that draft I don't see anyone who was drafted around where the Brewers picked who are all that much better than Bradley or Jungmann and no Fernandez was not going to be signing with the Brewers he would have instead went to college over playing for Milwaukee.

[danzig6767]

 

The Brewers had a bad draft there but looking back at that draft I don't see anyone who was drafted around where the Brewers picked who are all that much better than Bradley or Jungmann and no Fernandez was not going to be signing with the Brewers he would have instead went to college over playing for Milwaukee.

George Springer went one pick before Jungmann. Sonny Gray isn't special, but he's certainly a quality starter.

 

It does get rough though after Gray at 18.

[MrTPlush]

Garbage 1st round draft anyway. Taylor Jungmann was not a bad pick where we got him. Some thought he had some decent upside, but even most thought he was going to be a solid mid-rotation guy(really safe pick at the time). I wouldn’t complain about that at all where we drafted him.

 

Jed Bradley...umm...that was someone they must have fell in love with as an organization. That didn’t work out.

[reillymcshane]

I had initially wanted Baez or Lindor - but as expected, neither dropped to us.

 

The two guys I wanted were Sonny Gray and Kolten Wong for these picks. I knew Wong was a bit high, but I really liked what I read about him.

 

But to be honest, most people thought we did well at the time.

[CheeseheadInQC]

This was at a "win now" time for the Brewers where they were more interested in "low ceiling / high floor" guys who could make it to the majors quickly than in picking the best talent. I'm happy that we're running things differently today than we did back then.

 

Jungmann might have been considered that, but wasn't Bradley considered more of an upside college guy who dropped because he wasn't a safe pick (struggled a bit as a junior), or am I getting him confused with someone else? Gray might have been a "safer" choice there, and the same criticism was lobbed at the Nelson pick the year before. The problem with that draft wasn't that they went safe. It was that they picked the wrong guys. I mean while there is still time for them to turn it around, you wouldn't have gotten much more production from Taylor Guerrieri and Robert Stephenson if their development had gone the same.

[monty57]

Garbage 1st round draft anyway.

 

I've heard a few people say this. That draft included these guys who have accumulated at least 10 WAR so far (the draft was only six years ago): Gerritt Cole, Anthony Rendon, Francisco Lindor, Geroge Springer (drafted before our picks), and Jose Fernandez, Sonny Gray, and Jackie Bradley selected after our picks.

 

Then there were guys like Trevor Story, Kolton Wong, Joe Panik, Trevor Bauer, Dylan Bundy, Archie Bradley, Javier Baez, Joe Ross and others who are solid MLB players.

 

Some guys may not have lived up to the hype, but there are a lot of good MLB players from that draft.

 

Jungmann might have been considered that, but wasn't Bradley considered more of an upside college guy who dropped because he wasn't a safe pick (struggled a bit as a junior), or am I getting him confused with someone else? Gray might have been a "safer" choice there, and the same criticism was lobbed at the Nelson pick the year before. The problem with that draft wasn't that they went safe. It was that they picked the wrong guys. I mean while there is still time for them to turn it around, you wouldn't have gotten much more production from Taylor Guerrieri and Robert Stephenson if their development had gone the same.

 

I'm certainly no draft expert, and get most of my info on the draft from the gurus on this site. During that period, the Brewers were competitive at the MLB level and seemed to use a lot of picks on college arms that people thought could be rushed through the minors to help out in some way on the MLB roster pretty quickly.

 

I may be off, but I kind of use the Medeiros/Gateway/Harrison draft as the "sea change" draft where they started looking at high upside rather than looking for guys they could rush to the majors. Again, I'm no expert, but as I was following along on the board that year it just seemed that posters were shocked at how we were doing things.

[AKCheesehead]

Speaking of that 2011 draft, I read somewhere that #2 pick Danny Hultzen plans to attempt a comeback in 2018.

[reillymcshane]

I don't know if the 2011 draft was 'normal' or not - but the failure rate of baseball players is really high - no matter what year you look at.

 

I looked at the 2010 draft - and found that 20 of the top 50 picks haven't been in the majors yet. 14 more have produced 0.5 bWAR or lower for their careers. That's 34 out of 50 - roughly 2/3 of these guys have done nothing.

 

It sucks when we miss on our picks, but that's sort of the nature of the baseball draft. Especially when you're not picking in the top 10 or so.

[StearnsFTW]

I always hated the Jungmann pick. Low ceiling college arm. Gross. I liked the Bradley pick a lot more at the time. Turns out they both stunk, although Jungmann was clearly better than Bradley. I distinctly remember hoping they'd take Matt Barnes, which woudn't have been all that great either although I'd like him for our bullpen right about now.

[JosephC]

Worst in franchise history? No way. That 119 innings that Jungmann threw for the Brewers in 2015 might make him more valuable than the entire 1996 and 1997 draft classes combined. Geoff Geary might have been the best player drafted in those two seasons but he was a 41st rounder that didn't sign. In 1998 they hit on Bill Hall but that was it. If not for him it would have been complete whiffs in three consecutive seasons. The organization was completely clueless during this timeframe. Loved Sal Bando as a player but MLB GM material he was most definitely not!

[LouisEly]

This was at a "win now" time for the Brewers where they were more interested in "low ceiling / high floor" guys who could make it to the majors quickly than in picking the best talent. I'm happy that we're running things differently today than we did back then.

No, it had nothing to do with "high floor/quick to the majors/etc." If it was about that, then how do you explain Jorge Lopez in the 2nd round, Dylan Covey as their first round draft pick the year before, and Clint Coulter as their first pick the year after? Those guys are as far from "high floor/quick to the majors" as you can get. It's a nice story, but the facts don't support it.

 

The Brewers drafted Jungmann and Bradley because:

 

1) There was no bonus pool in 2011 and the Brewers were pushing for it. They had to draft guys who would sign for close to the suggested "slot value" or risk looking hypocritical. Jungmann and Bradley signed for slightly over slot, but if you rank 2011 draft picks by signing bonus I believe Jungmann was #20 and Bradley was tied for #23 (I could be off by one or two, but I did the research a few years ago).

 

2) Melvin knew that Miller Park was a HR-friendly park, and he made statements about targeting ground ball pitchers. Bradley was the ultimate ground ball/non-HR pitcher. In his junior year at Georgia Tech his HR/9 rate was 0.09. Jungmann's HR/9 was 0.26 in 2011. They were targeted because they were ground ball pitchers and they though that ground ball pitchers were much more likely to succeed at Miller Park.

 

3) They had to draft a college player with the #15 pick because it was unprotected. It was a comp pick for not signing Covey the year before, but comp picks aren't protected. No way could they draft a HS player with that pick; they had to draft someone with as much to risk by going back to school.

 

I also think they did some type of analysis that showed that taller/bigger bodied pitchers were less susceptible to major arm injuries, and Jungmann and Bradley fit that mold too.