Neil Walker

[TooLiveBrew]

I wonder if Walker would sign for 1yr/$12M at this point.

[MadThinker88]

I wonder if Walker would sign for 1yr/$12M at this point.

 

Why offer him $12MM? You might be bidding against yourself. In a standard negotiation you don't go in with your best possible at the start. You start with a lower figure and adjust from there..

 

Personally, I think starting with a MAJOR LEAGUE DEAL and $5MM plus incentives (multiple levels to get it to grow) might be all it takes now..

[wallus]

If he is available at a cheap price, you have to seriously consider it, even as a possible bench player.

[tigerbrew]

Wow, Walker must now be regretting not accepting the 2/$20M offer by the Brewers at the end of season last year.

Did anyone confirm that they actually did this?

 

The 2/$20M offer was mentioned by KCBrewerfan34 here

 

viewtopic.php?p=1087912#p1087912

 

viewtopic.php?p=1088041#p1088041

[Lathund]

I think that for the Brewers, even a cheap deal could be a stumbling block, depending on the pitching moves (And of course on how high Attanasio is willing to let the payroll go) If there is intent to add another pitcher then there's really not a ton of room. Even a best case scenario for a FA pitcher (Cobb/Lynn/Arrieta) would surely have to be a AAV of like $12m, and likely higher. That brings the payroll to ~105m. Then add a few million on top of that for Walker. Now that is not in and of itself all that much, but the next couple of offseasons will see some significant arbitration increases; Knebel, Davies, Santana, Shaw, Nelson and others. Anderson and Yelich will see their salary rise as well. Now if some of the top prospects develop like we hope, there could be some trades with ready-made internal replacements in place to make it manageable. But keeping some flexibility, and not being forced to make moves purely for payroll reasons, could be a good idea.

 

If Villar/Sogard aren't great in ST, and we don't sign an expensive pitcher, there's a chance of Walker signing. I don't think we'll see that happen though. Villar has upside both on offense and defense (He has the range and the arm. Just needs to cut out the mental mistakes; easier said than done though), Sogard/Perez have the defensive part down at least, and so does Dubon. Orf is an option too, if unlikely. Hiura should be knocking on the door some time in 2019 as well I would think. It's absolutely an area that could use improving, but I think you have to pick your spots when the money is limited. There are current internal options on the 25-man roster, MLB-ready prospects in AAA, and the teams top prospect down the line. There are other areas where spending money makes more sense, even if spending it would be a small improvement on 2018.

[JohnBriggs12]

Walker is having a hard time accepting that the market for players in their 30's is weak in general but very weak for 2B. He's in much the same situation as Lucroy. It's not collusion but teams have gotten smart. I would offer both Lucroy and Walker a base of $5-6 million with incentives that can bring it up to $10 million, with options for 2019. Walker can play 1B but other than that, and a handful of games at 3B, he's strictly a 2B. Teams want versatility with 13 man pitching staffs and if you aren't one of the core 3-5 players on a team who play everyday, you need to be able to move around. Now all the teams out their have positions filled. They can play the waiting game and hope for injuries to create a demand, but they don't have a great deal of bargaining leverage.

[TooLiveBrew]

I wonder if Walker would sign for 1yr/$12M at this point.

 

Why offer him $12MM? You might be bidding against yourself. In a standard negotiation you don't go in with your best possible at the start. You start with a lower figure and adjust from there..

 

Personally, I think starting with a MAJOR LEAGUE DEAL and $5MM plus incentives (multiple levels to get it to grow) might be all it takes now..

Fair point. I just thought 1/$12M might get an instant yes, and doesn't carry much risk for the Brewers. He's a good hitter & doesn't hurt you too much on defense. In context of this offseason, I guess I think $12M seems fair, but I acknowledge you might be able to get him for less. Really this is a guy you'd typically expect to get multiple year offers from multiple teams.

[pacopete4]

It would be interesting to know what they would be willing to give Walker.

[NOMAAM]

At this point 1 yr 8 Million with an option is probably the top of the market for him.

[JohnBriggs12]

Where does this notion that the default move at 2B is to stick Villar there to "re-establish" his value come from? What value? Even if he comes close to his 2016 numbers (highly unlikely given his .373 BABip that year and his propensity to strike out once every 3 ABs) his value isn't going to be all that high, and the lack of a market for quality 2B guys like Walker and Phillips proves it. He'd double his salary and still be considered a defensive liability and a hitter with a record of inconsistency who struggles with contact. If any current Brewer can up his value by playing more it's Perez, not Villar. Perez is highly respected around the league for his versatility and generally heads up style of play. If he can prove he also can be a productive everyday player, he adds more value than Villar can because teams looking for either a super utility type or a regular 2B, would have interest, keeping in mind there is no softer position in demand than 2B.

[pacopete4]

Briggs, the longer your post is, the more biased it gets. Perez? Come on man. He’s not a starter. He can’t get on base 30% of the time. He’s the wrong side of a platoon player and the only thing that saves him is that he’s passable at a bunch of positions. Not good at them. Passable. It’s why Walker makes sense to the Brewers if they don’t believe in Villar.

 

This poster below nailed it in a previous post I see that you didn’t want to respond to because it was just so dead on to show your bias.

 

 

Perez - Stunk last year -- "Is a much better hitter than he showed in 2017"

Guerra - Great in limited starts in 2016, but stunk in 2017 --- "Will bounce back as he was our opening day starter and gained mph on his fastball"

Villar - Amazing in 2016, awful in 2017 -- "Was never a prospect, was a one year wonder and should be DFA'd"

[PeaveyFury]

Where does this notion that the default move at 2B is to stick Villar there to "re-establish" his value come from? What value? Even if he comes close to his 2016 numbers (highly unlikely given his .373 BABip that year and his propensity to strike out once every 3 ABs) his value isn't going to be all that high, and the lack of a market for quality 2B guys like Walker and Phillips proves it.

 

Villar is 26, Walker and Phillips are in their 30's and well into the portion of their career where decline is happening. The lack of a market for those two this offseason has very little similarity to what Villar could hypothetically rebound to if he has a good year.

[adambr2]

Briggs, the longer your post is, the more biased it gets. Perez? Come on man. He’s not a starter. He can’t get on base 30% of the time. He’s the wrong side of a platoon player and the only thing that saves him is that he’s passable at a bunch of positions. Not good at them. Passable. It’s why Walker makes sense to the Brewers if they don’t believe in Villar.

 

This poster below nailed it in a previous post I see that you didn’t want to respond to because it was just so dead on to show your bias.

 

 

Perez - Stunk last year -- "Is a much better hitter than he showed in 2017"

Guerra - Great in limited starts in 2016, but stunk in 2017 --- "Will bounce back as he was our opening day starter and gained mph on his fastball"

Villar - Amazing in 2016, awful in 2017 -- "Was never a prospect, was a one year wonder and should be DFA'd"

 

The only part I would kind of disagree with is the notion that Villar was 'amazing' in 2016. Seems overstated a bit. He was a very nice player whose defense left a lot to be desired. That part seems likely to continue, even if he rebounds.

 

I think Villar is probably somewhere between his 2016 and 2017, ability wise. At first I had no problem letting him get another shot in 2018, but with the moves they've made since, if Walker's market has fallen so far that he could be brought back for 1/5 or 1/6, I think that would be a pretty good move.

 

We haven't really made any moves to take advantage of a deflated market, but with so many still unsigned, those moves may be yet to come.

[pacopete4]

We haven't really made any moves to take advantage of a deflated market, but with so many still unsigned, those moves may be yet to come.

 

You would think Stearns has a whole board filled with possible offers to some of these holdout players hoping he can just bolster our depth even that much more than it is. Got to be hard staying patient on it but I am really glad he is. Could pay off for a franchise like the Brewers.

[NOMAAM]

We haven't really made any moves to take advantage of a deflated market, but with so many still unsigned, those moves may be yet to come.

 

You would think Stearns has a whole board filled with possible offers to some of these holdout players hoping he can just bolster our depth even that much more than it is. Got to be hard staying patient on it but I am really glad he is. Could pay off for a franchise like the Brewers.

 

Agreed I'd like to add Cobb/Lynn to the rotation as well, but not if it costs 18 AAV for 3 yrs +. That could really hinder the Crew from taking on another contract mid season or future yrs.

[coolhandluke121]

Where does this notion that the default move at 2B is to stick Villar there to "re-establish" his value come from? What value? Even if he comes close to his 2016 numbers (highly unlikely given his .373 BABip that year and his propensity to strike out once every 3 ABs) his value isn't going to be all that high, and the lack of a market for quality 2B guys like Walker and Phillips proves it.

 

As someone else mentioned, the lack of market for Walker and Phillips has everything to do with teams wising up on the likely decline of aging players, and not a surplus of quality 2b's. Villar was a ~4 WAR player in 2016 and he doesn't have to duplicate that to become a valuable young asset again.

 

More importantly, he doesn't have to repeat that to have a great chance of being better this year than Walker. With Walker, it's not about the money. It's about having confidence that he will actually be better than Villar/Sogard, which teams rightly doubt given Walker's age and declining range.

 

Bottom line, free agency is often bad value because in general there's really not that much of a likely productivity gap between huge clusters of players, so you just end up paying based on what a guy did last year. Just sit it out unless you're going after a potential bounce-back steal like Chacin or a terrific player like Cain, who truly is head-and-shoulders above so many of the alternatives.

[TooLiveBrew]

One additional note on Villar -- his career BABIP is over .340, so while .373 is certainly high, it's not as big an outlier as it might sound when presented with no context.

 

That said, I still like Walker. Villar has hit RHPs better than lefties on his career (including in 2016), & Walker has done better against LHPs. Walker on his career has a slash line against lefties very similar to Villar's overall 2017 line.

 

I feel like there'll be PAs for Villar in a rotational role covering 2B vs LH SPs, spot starts at SS (maybe some 3B?), & pinch hitting.

[adambr2]

Would you guys trade Villar to Pittsburgh straight up for Josh Harrison?

 

I've mentioned this I think in the Harrison thread, but with him wanting out of Pittsburgh and the Pirates not hesitating to cut costs, and with the prices that guys like Harrison are getting as FAs, I would think he could be acquired for next to nothing.

 

Harrison plays better defense than Walker or Villar and is a relatively safe option in the middle and versatile enough to move around some where needed. He costs 10M this year and has team options for a hair over that in '19 and '20.

[danzig6767]

Where does this notion that the default move at 2B is to stick Villar there to "re-establish" his value come from?

It doesn't have to be about "re-establishing" his value at all.

 

Stearns very well could have contacted Walker/his agents and they were asking for to much, so Stearns then decided for now at least that then he'll just ride with what we have, hoping Villar bounces back and if he does, it will be for pocket change money.

 

Besides Walker likely asking for to much, my guess is Stearns doesn't want to get locked into a multi-year deal for a secondbaseman in case Hiura has a big year in the minors and could be ready to compete the the starting job next season.

 

If Walker wants 2-3 years, well then, good luck finding that contract elsewhere.

[pacopete4]

Would you guys trade Villar to Pittsburgh straight up for Josh Harrison?

 

I've mentioned this I think in the Harrison thread, but with him wanting out of Pittsburgh and the Pirates not hesitating to cut costs, and with the prices that guys like Harrison are getting as FAs, I would think he could be acquired for next to nothing.

 

Harrison plays better defense than Walker or Villar and is a relatively safe option in the middle and versatile enough to move around some where needed. He costs 10M this year and has team options for a hair over that in '19 and '20.

 

Harrison’s bat just doesn’t do it enough for me.

[jerichoholicninja]

Would you guys trade Villar to Pittsburgh straight up for Josh Harrison?

 

I've mentioned this I think in the Harrison thread, but with him wanting out of Pittsburgh and the Pirates not hesitating to cut costs, and with the prices that guys like Harrison are getting as FAs, I would think he could be acquired for next to nothing.

 

Harrison plays better defense than Walker or Villar and is a relatively safe option in the middle and versatile enough to move around some where needed. He costs 10M this year and has team options for a hair over that in '19 and '20.

 

If Villar isn't the answer I'd rather just give Walker whatever he wants. He'd greatly outhit Harrison and probably cost about the same. Josh's defense and versatility is great and all but there's not much there for offense. Certainly not worth the added salary and giving up Villar who may turn into something again.

[Boomer5]

Whoever is at 2B is just keeping it warm for Hiura so any contract for Walker would only be one year.

[PeaveyFury]

Whoever is at 2B is just keeping it warm for Hiura so any contract for Walker would only be one year.

 

And that would probably be why Walker and the Brewers haven't reached a deal. I'd bet that the Brewers have offered a fair one year deal, but Walker's camp is holding out for a multi-year contract.

[adambr2]

Whoever is at 2B is just keeping it warm for Hiura so any contract for Walker would only be one year.

 

And that would probably be why Walker and the Brewers haven't reached a deal. I'd bet that the Brewers have offered a fair one year deal, but Walker's camp is holding out for a multi-year contract.

 

I wouldn't have a huge problem with 2, as Keston is probably a mid-2019 callup. Trouble is, who are you competing with for Walker where you even need to offer 2?

[jerichoholicninja]

Whoever is at 2B is just keeping it warm for Hiura so any contract for Walker would only be one year.

 

And that would probably be why Walker and the Brewers haven't reached a deal. I'd bet that the Brewers have offered a fair one year deal, but Walker's camp is holding out for a multi-year contract.

 

I wouldn't have a huge problem with 2, as Keston is probably a mid-2019 callup. Trouble is, who are you competing with for Walker where you even need to offer 2?

 

Ya, so many are already pencilling in Keston as the 2019 2B. That would be great but I doubt it happens. And even if it does they still need depth there. Sign Walker for 2 years and if Keston is ready in 2019 Neil gets 500 PA playing some 2B, 3B, and 1B.