Neil Walker

[coolhandluke121]

I despise Villar. I was over on realGM last offseason and constantly argued that they should trade him for whatever they could get. People said they'd never get an offer worthy of the season he had just had because it was just one year. I was like, DUH, of course everyone knows it was kind of a fluke and they won't get a good offer for him; even so, they're still better off trading him now for half of what he was worth in 2016 because guys as dense as him always figure out a way to squander their talent.

 

I also love Walker. He's a model of consistent performance who was not yet washed up by any means, despite what skeptics thought when they traded for him. His injuries were clearly not long-term issues and he had always produced when healthy, including the weeks leading up to the trade when he was finally recovered from the hamstring issue. That's the type of guy you need up and down the lineup if you want to contend - or be successful in any industry, for that matter.

 

And even I would prefer to give Villar another chance. We won't see another 2016 (his BABIP was absurd that year and guys usually start losing speed at 25 or so), but he will be better than last year. Walker is also one year older, and probabilistically should be on the brink of a decline. Most importantly, I think the Brewers should continue to be in asset management mode. That's what got them here. Not only is better for the future, it actually often helps you "win now" better than (ostensibly) win-now moves.

[Devinep]

Why Walker over Villar?

-based on history and BABIP, villages 2016 was a fluke

-Villars defense and base running will always suck

-Walkers consistenty solid

-Walker will probably be signed to a relatively cheap contract

-the bottom of the order as is-C,2B, Arcia, P-could be bad

-clearly they hope to contend his year, so it’s not the time to hope for lightning to strike the same place twice.

[homer]

Even if you thought Villar's offensive numbers in 2016 were a fluke, there is no way you could have predicted a drop-off like he had with the bat. He went from a 19.0 WAR offensive player to a -13.9 WAR offensive player.

[MenchHead]

Why Walker over Villar?

-based on history and BABIP, villages 2016 was a fluke

-Villars defense and base running will always suck

-Walkers consistenty solid

-Walker will probably be signed to a relatively cheap contract

-the bottom of the order as is-C,2B, Arcia, P-could be bad

-clearly they hope to contend his year, so it’s not the time to hope for lightning to strike the same place twice.

 

Do I expect Villar to be a perennial all-star? Absolutely not. I also don’t expect him to have a repeat of last year. Again, I like the idea of Walker but he could fall off the map at any point because of age. You hammer Villar for being a terrible base-runner and defender while glossing over the fact Walker offers zero on the basepaths and also is a below averge defender. Villar is also, already, very cheap.

 

It’s not all roses with Villar but Walker isn’t exactly a knight in shining armor in comparison.

[coolhandluke121]

Why Walker over Villar?

-based on history and BABIP, villages 2016 was a fluke

-Villars defense and base running will always suck

-Walkers consistenty solid

-Walker will probably be signed to a relatively cheap contract

-the bottom of the order as is-C,2B, Arcia, P-could be bad

-clearly they hope to contend his year, so it’s not the time to hope for lightning to strike the same place twice.

 

1. Walker is past his prime. Let's not have another Weeks, Hart, Ramirez, Marcum, Wolf, Lohse, or Garza decline candidate. They had unexpected success last year precisely because they stopped making personnel decisions like that (pretty ironic that "giving up" can actually make you win more because of the benefits of youth).

2. Villar is not yet in his prime and has the equivalent of only 3 full seasons.

3. Villar's first full season was better than any of Walker's 8. He doesn't have to repeat that to be the right choice.

4. Range matters; I bet you can make roughly twice as many errors and still be more valuable on defense than a slower guy.

5. Base-running mistakes are irritating, but it's similar to range on defense; you can make up for it and then some with speed.

6. Villar could be a valuable trade asset with a bounce-back year.

7. Sogard is a better defender and a legit backup SS.

8. The money could be utilized better in other ways, either on a starter now or at the trade deadline.

9. If Villar fails, guys like Perez and maybe Dubon probably deserve a shot.

 

Bottom line, Villar doesn't have to be 2016 Villar to be a better option than Walker. Asset management is what got you here, so just keep going with that.

[PeaveyFury]

Yeah, it's worth noting that Walker's defense is not 'solid', he's had negative defensive WAR the last two seasons and is trending the way you'd expect based on age.

[TJseven7]

That Morrison deal makes me think 7/1 on walker is possible. I'd jump at it.

[Dadbauer]

At this point, I'm sky high on Hiura - I think he will be starting in 2019. I'm either giving Walker a 1 year deal or letting Villar take charge this year and try and salvage his value.

[clancyphile]

Sign Walker to a deal at $7.5 million for 2018, with a team option for 2019 at $7.5 million, and another for 2020 at $5 million?

 

Use him at 2B, have Villar and Perez on the bench, and go with a seven-man pen?

[MrTPlush]

They already said they want a 8 man pen...so I doubt it.

[Dadbauer]

Sign Walker to a deal at $7.5 million for 2018, with a team option for 2019 at $7.5 million, and another for 2020 at $5 million?

 

Use him at 2B, have Villar and Perez on the bench, and go with a seven-man pen?

 

They already confirmed they are going with an 8 man pen. That COULD change, of course, with an acquisition, but I think they would really rather an extra arm at the beginning of the season.

[TJseven7]

Well if Braun can play 1b vs LHP it fits. Villar Perez (braun)* vogt on the bench. Aguilar sogard out. Broxton Phillips AAA.

 

(Braun)*... said like that because Brauns not really bench but plays lf and 1b.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Walker will be lucky to get more than 1/6, the longer he stays out the worse for him. Same for LuCroy. Sign 1 year deals and hope for better next year.

[Devinep]

Why Walker over Villar?

-based on history and BABIP, villages 2016 was a fluke

-Villars defense and base running will always suck

-Walkers consistenty solid

-Walker will probably be signed to a relatively cheap contract

-the bottom of the order as is-C,2B, Arcia, P-could be bad

-clearly they hope to contend his year, so it’s not the time to hope for lightning to strike the same place twice.

 

1. Walker is past his prime. Let's not have another Weeks, Hart, Ramirez, Marcum, Wolf, Lohse, or Garza decline candidate. They had unexpected success last year precisely because they stopped making personnel decisions like that (pretty ironic that "giving up" can actually make you win more because of the benefits of youth).

2. Villar is not yet in his prime and has the equivalent of only 3 full seasons.

3. Villar's first full season was better than any of Walker's 8. He doesn't have to repeat that to be the right choice.

4. Range matters; I bet you can make roughly twice as many errors and still be more valuable on defense than a slower guy.

5. Base-running mistakes are irritating, but it's similar to range on defense; you can make up for it and then some with speed.

6. Villar could be a valuable trade asset with a bounce-back year.

7. Sogard is a better defender and a legit backup SS.

8. The money could be utilized better in other ways, either on a starter now or at the trade deadline.

9. If Villar fails, guys like Perez and maybe Dubon probably deserve a shot.

 

Bottom line, Villar doesn't have to be 2016 Villar to be a better option than Walker. Asset management is what got you here, so just keep going with that.

 

Villars range and speeed didn’t nearly make up for his mistakes. The metrics show that.

[Devinep]

Why Walker over Villar?

-based on history and BABIP, villages 2016 was a fluke

-Villars defense and base running will always suck

-Walkers consistenty solid

-Walker will probably be signed to a relatively cheap contract

-the bottom of the order as is-C,2B, Arcia, P-could be bad

-clearly they hope to contend his year, so it’s not the time to hope for lightning to strike the same place twice.

 

Do I expect Villar to be a perennial all-star? Absolutely not. I also don’t expect him to have a repeat of last year. Again, I like the idea of Walker but he could fall off the map at any point because of age. You hammer Villar for being a terrible base-runner and defender while glossing over the fact Walker offers zero on the basepaths and also is a below averge defender. Villar is also, already, very cheap.

 

It’s not all roses with Villar but Walker isn’t exactly a knight in shining armor in comparison.

 

You make a good point that Walker isn’t a + baserunner or defender either. But Walker overall hits enough to provide value. Outside of 2016, there isn’t much evidence to think Villar could hit enough to be a valuable starter, especially with his overall game

[coolhandluke121]

 

Villars range and speeed didn’t nearly make up for his mistakes. The metrics show that.

 

It was implied that I meant it only in comparison to Walker, who has terrible range now. I'm not saying Villar's range makes up for his defensive mistakes enough to make him a neutral defender, but only to make him on par with Walker (and possibly better as soon as this year). Metrics hate slow infielders, and rightfully so. I remember when Rollins and Jeter were the two worst defensive shortstops* in baseball despite having the best fielding percentages and making the fewest mistakes.

 

I absolutely do believe that Villar's speed on the basepaths makes up for his miscues though. It's demoralizing when you make a stupid out, but objectively the net effect isn't any worse than getting caught stealing any other way. Villar's steals and success rate, combining with the harder-to-quantify ability to beat double plays or advance an extra base on hits and sac flies, make him a plus base-runner despite the miscues.

 

*ETA: Lol, how could I forget Yuniesky Betancourt. He was other-worldly. I must have suppressed my memories of him. Similar dynamics there, though - range is ridiculously important for middle infielders.

[danzig6767]

At this point, I'm sky high on Hiura - I think he will be starting in 2019. I'm either giving Walker a 1 year deal or letting Villar take charge this year and try and salvage his value.

I agree. Where is the market for Walker to get the 3 year big payday he wants?

 

I offer one year and maybe some sort of 2nd year option at most. If he says no, move on and let Walker try to get more elsewhere.

[Warning Track Power]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/03/yankees-rumors-neil-walker-brandon-drury.html

 

Cross the Yankees off the list for Neil.

[Eye Black]

Has Neil Walker’s market completely cratered to the point a team legitimately thought he might accept a minor league deal? From a Boston Globe article...

 

The Royals were unsuccessful in trying to bring Neil Walker aboard. His asking price was too high. The Royals were hoping to bring in Walker on a minor league deal, with the chance to make the big club.

[superfly]

MINOR LEAGUE DEAL !?!?!?!?!?

[pacopete4]

Lol maybe there is collusion after all. Minor league deal is pretty ridiculous if true.

[tigerbrew]

Wow, Walker must now be regretting not accepting the 2/$20M offer by the Brewers at the end of season last year.

[pacopete4]

Wow, Walker must now be regretting not accepting the 2/$20M offer by the Brewers at the end of season last year.

Did anyone confirm that they actually did this?

[adambr2]

Yeah, I can't find any source of a 2/20 offer to Walker from the Brewers. Are people confusing that with MLBtraderumors projection for Walker, which was 2/20 to the Brewers?

 

It does appear the Mets were offering about 3/40 at this time last year which I imagine he regrets didn't happen.

[jerichoholicninja]

Has Neil Walker’s market completely cratered to the point a team legitimately thought he might accept a minor league deal? From a Boston Globe article...

 

The Royals were unsuccessful in trying to bring Neil Walker aboard. His asking price was too high. The Royals were hoping to bring in Walker on a minor league deal, with the chance to make the big club.

 

Seeing as it was the Royals, I'm sure it was more of a "let's throw this out there and see if he takes it" than a whole hearted offer.