Neil Walker

[JohnBriggs12]

Yeah, the Brewers have a weird situation where I am not really attached to keeping any of our 2020 or 2021 free agents. Santana and Davies are the only young ones, but neither is a free agent then and if either explode, they’ll be priced out of our payroll anyways.

 

I’d go to the 3rd year with Walker if I had to, especially since he can be the super-utility guy in year 3.

 

That's why you include team option for the 3rd year. Hiura's the best pure hitter they've drafted since Braun. I'd be quite disappointed if he's not the full time 2B if not opening day 2020, but at least after the super 2 time expires.

[KeithStone53151]

Yeah, the Brewers have a weird situation where I am not really attached to keeping any of our 2020 or 2021 free agents. Santana and Davies are the only young ones, but neither is a free agent then and if either explode, they’ll be priced out of our payroll anyways.

 

I’d go to the 3rd year with Walker if I had to, especially since he can be the super-utility guy in year 3.

 

That's why you include team option for the 3rd year. Hiura's the best pure hitter they've drafted since Braun. I'd be quite disappointed if he's not the full time 2B if not opening day 2020, but at least after the super 2 time expires.

 

I would be open to an option year, even an option that vests at 800 PA over the first 2 years of which 400 must be the 2nd year...something like that.

 

Just a reminder that we are 27ish days from pitchers and catchers reporting.

[bill hAll Star]

Yeah, the Brewers have a weird situation where I am not really attached to keeping any of our 2020 or 2021 free agents. Santana and Davies are the only young ones, but neither is a free agent then and if either explode, they’ll be priced out of our payroll anyways.

 

I’d go to the 3rd year with Walker if I had to, especially since he can be the super-utility guy in year 3.

 

That's why you include team option for the 3rd year. Hiura's the best pure hitter they've drafted since Braun. I'd be quite disappointed if he's not the full time 2B if not opening day 2020, but at least after the super 2 time expires.

 

A team option for the 3rd year means nothing to Walker (other than a small buyout) and could actually be seen as a negative to him, which was the basis for all of the discussion of offering enough to obtain him.

 

Sure, if Walker was willing to take 2/$22 right now AND he wanted a team option for $12 million with a $2 million buyout, sign me up. But if Neil wants a 3rd year, said team option is not going to make him say, "OK, now I'm in."

[JohnBriggs12]

At this point I'd just prefer Walker back than any big moves. HAve to think he's not seeing a 3rd year from anyone right now. And with the deal the Nats just gave the 2B the market is likely not what he hoped. Tough for us to know what's going on of course, but i'd like to find a way to get it done. It's not like they don't have the space to slightly over pay from what we want the next two years. 3rd year is a problem of course, but with his flex to 1B and 3B, if a prospect is knocking down the door and just better than him at 2B he provides good position flex to be a backup.

 

Signing Walker do a reasonable deal doesn't preclude another big move. Their payroll would be around $80 million if he signs. They would have room for a guy in the $15-18 million AAV range. They could sign Cain for $14-15 million a year or deal for a one year rental of Patrick Corbin ($15 million) who wouldn't cost much in players and for whom they could include one of their extra infielders making $2-3 million.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Just a reminder that we are 27ish days from pitchers and catchers reporting.

 

crazy to think that only half of the top 50 free agents have signed so far this offseason, many to 1 and 2 year deals - I feel like typical free agent periods lead off with the most highly regarded players signing the mega-deals followed by a game of chicken for the mid-level vets. This year has proven to be exactly the opposite, and all the big market teams pushing to stay under the luxury tax threshold to gear up for next offseason to spend like crazy seems to be suppressing the potential suitors for players looking for long term, high dollar value deals.

 

I'm sure most of the remaining free agents will get market value contracts, but I think it'd actually be great for the game to see the tactics Boras uses to fall flat. Even if MLB teams are raking in cash, this version of the CBA and free agency/luxury tax system at least seems to have some teeth that's driving big market clubs to rein in mega-contract spending, if only for one offseason. There's still stupid money being thrown at certain players, but you'll get that no matter what.

[KeithStone53151]

Just a reminder that we are 27ish days from pitchers and catchers reporting.

 

crazy to think that only half of the top 50 free agents have signed so far this offseason, many to 1 and 2 year deals - I feel like typical free agent periods lead off with the most highly regarded players signing the mega-deals followed by a game of chicken for the mid-level vets. This year has proven to be exactly the opposite, and all the big market teams pushing to stay under the luxury tax threshold to gear up for next offseason to spend like crazy seems to be suppressing the potential suitors for players looking for long term, high dollar value deals.

 

I'm sure most of the remaining free agents will get market value contracts, but I think it'd actually be great for the game to see the tactics Boras uses to fall flat. Even if MLB teams are raking in cash, this version of the CBA and free agency/luxury tax system at least seems to have some teeth that's driving big market clubs to rein in mega-contract spending, if only for one offseason. There's still stupid money being thrown at certain players, but you'll get that no matter what.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/heres-baseballs-economic-system-might-broken-224638354.html

 

I read an article by Passan where he explored potential collusion and basically criticized teams for not spending. Link above. As you've noted, next offseason and the CBA are playing a significant role in the spending this offseason. Another is the ridiculous asking prices. I personally hope JD Martinez sits out until midseason and wastes potentially $10 million trying to get what he deems a fair market value contract. Teams are getting smarter, and they see how these massive contracts end for teams. Ellsbury, Price, Zimmerman, Pujols, the list goes on...dreadful contracts before the ink even dried. Ellsbury is getting 20 million for the next 3 years to be a 4th outfielder and never had a season even remotely worth his contract. Zimmerman posted a mid 5s ERA for the tigers his first 2 years with 3 to go. Price got paid 30 million last year to pitch 74 innings, mostly in relief. Pujols is at best a replacement level player at this point and can only be DH, but is owed another 115 million over the next 4 years. He also cracked 800 OPS once in his 6 years with the Angels so far. Too many players sign these big contracts and simply coast. It's all guaranteed, what do they care? Why work hard in the offseason anymore, why not get fat and lazy like Pujols did? GM's are getting smarter and see all this. They'll pay for production, they won't pay for a players decline anymore.

[tmwiese55]

Yea I don't think it's collusion so much as teams finally smartening up on how bad these deals are on the back end. That said, if teams do get smart and stop paying big money then the players need to do something about the arbitration/control years in the system. Basically it's been a tradeoff that for being ripped off their first 5-7 years they get massively overpaid afterwards. If they're not getting overpaid now, they need to do something to hit FA sooner or get paid more in arbitration.

[NievesNoNO]

Yea I don't think it's collusion so much as teams finally smartening up on how bad these deals are on the back end. That said, if teams do get smart and stop paying big money then the players need to do something about the arbitration/control years in the system. Basically it's been a tradeoff that for being ripped off their first 5-7 years they get massively overpaid afterwards. If they're not getting overpaid now, they need to do something to hit FA sooner or get paid more in arbitration.

 

The only thing holding small/mid-market teams afloat is the player control aspect. I'd be ok altering pay in arbitration or pre-arb, although I think they get paid pretty fairly. Is there a current agreement in place for ratio of owner revenue to player salary? I'm guessing not since there's no cap or floor. I actually like the way baseball is set up. I would hate to see player control years decreased and implementing a salary cap and floor (which I see as the only logical step if players are allowed to hit FA sooner).

 

Even if teams payed more up front in shorter term deals, I think that would resolve some of the "issues". I mean it's the teams that created the market by signing guys to ridiculous deals in the first place by giving them 6-7 years of guaranteed money and deferred payments in some cases. I guess I just have a hard time sympathizing with the players and agents on any level regardless how much owners are making. Markets can change, you're only worth what your employer is willing to pay..... it doesn't need to increase forever.

[bill hAll Star]

I'm not so sure I'd call it full-blown collusion, as I think a lot of this has to do with some teams just waiting to try to get Harper/Keuchel/etc. while under the luxury tax threshold...

 

...but I really hesitate to agree with the idea that 20-30 owners all woke up this offseason and said, "wow, I really should be listening to the analytics on the contracts/age on these guys."

 

Just last year, contracts that many on here call "ridiculous" were still being thrown out. Did the 15 owners that traded off throwing these contracts out to players all wake up and decide that it's not a good idea? All in the same offseason? That seems insane.

 

The fact that the Giants are doing everything they can to pinch pennies and stay under the tax threshold all while trying to win at all costs tells me all that I need to know. It isn't so much collusion, but definitely a combo of some collusion and teams wanting to get back under the tax threshold.

 

The Giants essentially signed Evan Longoria to a 5 year deal at age 32. Why would they do that if they are part of this new enlightenment era? Strangely, Longoria wasn't a free agent (AKA new money)...sooooooo....maybe that's why?

 

The Yankees just took on $275 million dollars of a player that will be likely a bad contract for $100 million of it. Again, not new money, though. I sense a pattern...

[monty57]

The luxury tax penalties just got a lot stiffer. That made the big spending teams have to stop spending, and that alone has a big effect on free agent spending. Also, owners are starting to treat their teams like a business and not an expensive toy. That means listening to the numbers guys and making decisions based on those numbers and not on emotion.

 

Pre-arby guys get around $500,000, so a veteran player would have to be a lot better than a young player in order to justify the difference in pay. Since humans don't age well, paying an older player that much more money than a younger player just doesn't make sense unless that older player is really good. Guys like Arrieta and Darvish just aren't good enough to justify giving them a huge, long-term deal at their age, and generally the "second tier" waits until the top guys get signed before they will sign in order to maximize their pay.

 

Superstars will still get paid. Guys who get to the majors young so they hit free agency when they still have some prime years left will get paid. But since teams have budgets, when some players make more, others will have to make less than they expect.

[tmwiese55]

Yea I don't think it's collusion so much as teams finally smartening up on how bad these deals are on the back end. That said, if teams do get smart and stop paying big money then the players need to do something about the arbitration/control years in the system. Basically it's been a tradeoff that for being ripped off their first 5-7 years they get massively overpaid afterwards. If they're not getting overpaid now, they need to do something to hit FA sooner or get paid more in arbitration.

 

The only thing holding small/mid-market teams afloat is the player control aspect. I'd be ok altering pay in arbitration or pre-arb, although I think they get paid pretty fairly. Is there a current agreement in place for ratio of owner revenue to player salary? I'm guessing not since there's no cap or floor. I actually like the way baseball is set up. I would hate to see player control years decreased and implementing a salary cap and floor (which I see as the only logical step if players are allowed to hit FA sooner).

 

Even if teams payed more up front in shorter term deals, I think that would resolve some of the "issues". I mean it's the teams that created the market by signing guys to ridiculous deals in the first place by giving them 6-7 years of guaranteed money and deferred payments in some cases. I guess I just have a hard time sympathizing with the players and agents on any level regardless how much owners are making. Markets can change, you're only worth what your employer is willing to pay..... it doesn't need to increase forever.

 

Yea obviously that wouldn't be good for us. I was looking at it from the players and their unions perspective if this becomes a trend. Your last point I think is a good compromise, keep the control there but pay them more. Basically get them to arbitration a year earlier or something and off their rookie scale contracts where they're getting nothing (relatively anyway).

 

All the posts after also made good points. We'll see if this is a one year trend in the coming years, tough to know right now.

 

Take a Jimmy Nelson, Knebel, or Shaw type. Say they keep doing well, if this trend continues and you git FA at 31ish and no one will give you big money you'll pretty much have played your whole career for not a lot of money (relatively speaking of course). I know it's bad for the Brewers but if this trend continues I could see it being a big sticking point in the next CBA negotiating to find a way to get guys paid earlier.

[KeithStone53151]

Yea obviously that wouldn't be good for us. I was looking at it from the players and their unions perspective if this becomes a trend. Your last point I think is a good compromise, keep the control there but pay them more. Basically get them to arbitration a year earlier or something and off their rookie scale contracts where they're getting nothing (relatively anyway).

 

All the posts after also made good points. We'll see if this is a one year trend in the coming years, tough to know right now.

 

Take a Jimmy Nelson, Knebel, or Shaw type. Say they keep doing well, if this trend continues and you git FA at 31ish and no one will give you big money you'll pretty much have played your whole career for not a lot of money (relatively speaking of course). I know it's bad for the Brewers but if this trend continues I could see it being a big sticking point in the next CBA negotiating to find a way to get guys paid earlier.

 

Anything giving money to players early should come with additional revenue sharing for smaller market clubs. I'm sure the big markets would lose their minds at the idea of that, at the same time baseball wouldn't be nearly as successful if there were only 6-8 real teams and 24 minor league teams. I wouldn't hate seeing a salary floor come along with this, to force teams to make an effort to be somewhat competitive.

[reillymcshane]

I thought the collusion stuff deserved its own thread, so I started one in the major league forum: viewtopic.php?f=63&t=36285

 

We can keep this one focused on Neil Walker.

[jonescm128]

Now that the three team trade takes the Yankees out of the Neil Walker sweepstakes, I can't help but think he may come back to the Brewers. His market is getting awfully narrow and he just may fall into our price range. I would 100% rather have Cobb + Walker than Arrieta or a trade for Archer.

[pacopete4]

Doesn’t the trade open up a Walker to Dbacks possibility?

[jonescm128]

Doesn’t the trade open up a Walker to Dbacks possibility?

 

Well, yeah, but...

[jvrocksaz]

Doesn’t the trade open up a Walker to Dbacks possibility?

 

Not according to local insiders. Marte to 2b and Ahmed stays at SS. Owings becomes utility guy.

[tigerbrew]

I think Villar will still be awful again this year, Stearns please go get Walker back.

[jonescm128]

I think Villar will still be awful again this year, Stearns please go get Walker back.

 

I'm expecting, well, hoping, something in between 2016 and 2017

[NOMAAM]

I think Villar will still be awful again this year, Stearns please go get Walker back.

 

I'm expecting, well, hoping, something in between 2016 and 2017

His defense is the bigger issue. If the brewers add another GB type pitcher like Cobb.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think Villar will still be awful again this year, Stearns please go get Walker back.

 

Amen, though I think a Sogard/Perez platoon might be better than most think there and could open up a way to keep Aguilar around as mostly a PH assuming they jettison Villar completely.

[Warning Track Power]

If Villar could bounce back to the average of his 2016 and 2017 #s (.267/.339/.422 15 HR 52 SBs), he is a very valuable player in the #7 spot. However, his time should be limited to 2018 and maye 2019 assuming Hiura is the player we hope he is. Rather than hope he can bounce back, I would take the more sure thing in Neil Walker whose 2016-2017 average #s are similar .274/.355/.458, 18 HRs but have been consistent over a longer period of time.

[JohnBriggs12]

If Villar could bounce back to the average of his 2016 and 2017 #s (.267/.339/.422 15 HR 52 SBs), he is a very valuable player in the #7 spot. However, his time should be limited to 2018 and maye 2019 assuming Hiura is the player we hope he is. Rather than hope he can bounce back, I would take the more sure thing in Neil Walker whose 2016-2017 average #s are similar .274/.355/.458, 18 HRs but have been consistent over a longer period of time.

 

Villar's shortcomings are often not evident in box scores or stats.

[CheezButt]

Villar's shortcomings are between his ears.

[MenchHead]

Villar isn’t good defensively but if he’s capable of a line close to that average, he is more than adequate to man second base. People love to hate on his defense but seemingly forget the two gold glove quality players who manned the position in Milwaukee before him. If the bat is there, it will play.

 

Regardless, I’d love Walker on a one or two year deal (his age scares me) but I have no idea what he’s looking for or what offers he may have.