Danny Salazar

[mlloyd10]

Keep seeing his name pop up in trades - Would anyone do a Salazar for Santana straight up?

[KeithStone53151]

Keep seeing his name pop up in trades - Would anyone do a Salazar for Santana straight up?

 

I don't think that's equal value. We should get relief help or prospects back in that deal. I personally like a Santana+ for Salazar and Mejia deal. Depends on how much we'd have to add. I think a deal centered around Santana/Salazar makes sense for both clubs though.

[wallus]

Keep seeing his name pop up in trades - Would anyone do a Salazar for Santana straight up?

 

Links?

[Warning Track Power]

Keep seeing his name pop up in trades - Would anyone do a Salazar for Santana straight up?

 

Links?

https://www.letsgotribe.com/2018/1/4/16849326/indians-still-willing-to-trade-danny-salazar

 

From the Santana thread which mentions Schwarber as a potential target for Salazar.

[Devinep]

I think Cleveland would be a good trade option, but with Zimmer having an unimpressive rookie season and Chisenhall and Brantley in the corners, a CF-capable player would seek to make more sense. DH isn’t much of an option for Brantley often with Encarnacion and Alonzo at 1B.

 

Maybe Phillips as the starting point

[homer]

Brantley is getting up there in age (he'll be 31 by the time the season starts) and hasn't been healthy for a few seasons. I could see them wanting to replace him.

[MadThinker88]

Brantley is getting up there in age (he'll be 31 by the time the season starts) and hasn't been healthy for a few seasons. I could see them wanting to replace him.

 

Cleveland picked up an option on Brantley for this season worth $12.5 Million. If they were looking to just replace him, the buyout was worth $1 Million. There has been some talk about signing Brantley to an extension so I doubt they are looking to replace him at this time.

 

Chisenhall has found a home in RF, but he is best as a platoon bat vs righties. He is going into his final arbitration year. I could see them looking to find a single full-time corner OF if Brantley is not extended.

 

If moving on from Chisenhall in RF, they are likely looking for a right-handed batter to balance the lineup.

Switch: Lindor, Jose Ramirez, maybe Mejia if on roster

Lefties: Kipnis, Brantley, Alonso, Zimmer, Chisenhall

Righties: Edwin E, C (either Gomes or R Perez), Guyer (other half of RF platoon), bench guys Diaz, Urshela,

 

If Cleveland wanted a D first CF, they have it already. Zimmer is very good defensively but he likely moves to corner once Greg Allen is ready. Allen missed 2 months last season with a broken hamate bone in his hand but he brings speed & D to the table. He still needs some time to develop as a hitter & will most likely open the season in AAA Columbus. Just a note for everyone: during the 2017 spring training Allen played LF as Zimmer took CF & Chisenhall was in RF. When Brantley was in LF, Allen was in CF & Zimmer played RF.

[homer]

Odd about the extension. Brantley hasn't played more than 100 games since 2015. Maybe they think the injuries were flukes or something.

[Bnowell4evr]

I'm betting on Salazar being the pitcher that Domingo Santana lands. It won't be a 1 for 1 deal since Santana has a bit more value. The Indians lack relief options so a decent prospect or two will be needed.

[Devinep]

Odd about the extension. Brantley hasn't played more than 100 games since 2015. Maybe they think the injuries were flukes or something.

 

But he’s still good enough that he should be playing when healthy

[KeithStone53151]

Odd about the extension. Brantley hasn't played more than 100 games since 2015. Maybe they think the injuries were flukes or something.

 

But he’s still good enough that he should be playing when healthy

 

Brantley has played 238 games the last 3 years combined. Chisenhall had multiple injury issues last season. Both guys hit left handed and both have experience in CF. There would be plenty of playing time and platoon opportunities available with Santana, along with insurance in case of injury. Having all 4 guys may even help players stay healthy throughout the season.

[NievesNoNO]

Keep seeing his name pop up in trades - Would anyone do a Salazar for Santana straight up?

 

 

Yes, I would and I really like Santana. Salazar doesn't have a very good injury track record but if he can stay healthy he's a front line starter. If he cannot stay healthy he could be used in a high leverage bullpen role. Obviously that's not ideal, but there'd still be plenty of value in that.

 

I don't think Santana can bring back another guy with similar upside on his own.

[JosephC]

I think Salazar and Santana are pretty reasonable candidates to build a trade around. It would be interesting to see what a "league consensus" would be for the value of these players.

 

Domingo Santana's average 2017 WAR between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs was 3.15. Personally I think that's where he should be valued for each of the next four seasons. However, Depth Charts and Steamer has projected him in the 1.6-1.7 WAR area for 2018. Based on that I think it's hard to think that MLB teams would see Santana as a 3+ WAR player for each of the next three years.

 

Danny Salazar's average WAR has gone from 3.2 in 2015 to 2.7 in 2016 to 1.75 in 2017. That seems to have more to do with a yearly drop in innings (185 to 137 to 103) than it does with performance. Despite the decline, Depth Charts and Steamer project him as a 2.3 WAR player in 2018. That's well above what he did in in 2017 but is slightly below the average over the last three seasons.

 

If one assumes Danny Salazar is a 2.3 WAR pitcher per season from 2018-2020 then I'd estimate his surplus value at approximately 45 million dollars. If one assumes Domingo Santana is a 1.7 WAR player per season from 2018-2021 then I'd estimate his surplus value at approximately 49 million dollars. So if those are the estimates, Cleveland would only have to throw in one role player type prospect to even it up. But I'd argue that 1.7 WAR is more of a floor value for Santana rather than what should be expected. The average between Santana's 2017 results and 2018 projection is 2.4. If one assumes Domingo Santana is a 2.4 WAR player per season from 2018-2021 then I'd estimate his surplus value at approximately 72 million dollars. Then we'd be talking about Cleveland throwing in a back end of the top 100 prospect or two solid top ten organizational prospects.

 

As odd as it seems, this might be the opportunity for Stearns to get some of the prospects that he didn't get when Lucroy vetoed the Cleveland trade. Maybe something like:

 

Cleveland gets:

OF - Domingo Santana (72 million surplus value...2.4 WAR player each of next four seasons)

role-player pitching prospect / maybe either Medeiros or Bickford (5.72 million surplus value)

Total = 77.72 million

 

Milwaukee gets:

RHP - Danny Salazar (45 million surplus value...2.3 WAR player each of next three seasons)

SS - Yu-Cheng Chang (top 10 organizational prospect...11.45 million surplus value)

OF - Greg Allen (top 10 organizational prospect...11.45 million surplus value)

Total = 67.9 million

 

Numbers have the Brewers getting the short end by 10 million but this is what I would expect. The Brewers would be getting the major league arm back in the deal and no question the two better prospects would both be headed Milwaukee's way.

 

Would I personally do it? No, only because I don't like that decrease in Salazar's innings total. But if Stearns was to gamble on pitching then Salazar would be a good guy to take the risk on because when he's on the mound he has been good. Also, Greg Allen will not be an impact bat like Santana but he's fast, can play defense and has been a pretty good OBP guy in the minors so if he turns out to be a hit then he could end up filling a top of the order spot which is something the Brewer lineup needs. There is a lot to like in this deal for both sides.

[KeithStone53151]

Joseph, I'm a numbers guy and that's too involved for me to follow. But, your end results for every one of these I've read have always been very good/reasonable in my opinion. I think the deal is reasonable and I think both sides would seriously consider that if offered by the other side.

[Devinep]

I’d be happy with Santana for Salazar+, but not Greg Allen, not an OF if possible

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Milwaukee gets:

RHP - Danny Salazar (45 million surplus value...2.3 WAR player each of next three seasons)

SS - Yu-Cheng Chang (top 10 organizational prospect...11.45 million surplus value)

OF - Greg Allen (top 10 organizational prospect...11.45 million surplus value)

Total = 67.9 million

 

Cleveland does have more prospects than two of the guys that were rumored to be part of the Lucroy deal. Why Chang and Allen, besides the fact that fans started doing their homework on them 1 1/2 years ago?

[Devinep]

Odd about the extension. Brantley hasn't played more than 100 games since 2015. Maybe they think the injuries were flukes or something.

 

But he’s still good enough that he should be playing when healthy

 

Brantley has played 238 games the last 3 years combined. Chisenhall had multiple injury issues last season. Both guys hit left handed and both have experience in CF. There would be plenty of playing time and platoon opportunities available with Santana, along with insurance in case of injury. Having all 4 guys may even help players stay healthy throughout the season.

 

yeah I agree, although I don’t think brantley would ever see CF again. Santana would definitely fit; I was thinking they may desire for more offense out of CF however. Chisenhall could do that, but at a downgrade to their defense

[brewerfan82]

Milwaukee gets:

RHP - Danny Salazar (45 million surplus value...2.3 WAR player each of next three seasons)

SS - Yu-Cheng Chang (top 10 organizational prospect...11.45 million surplus value)

OF - Greg Allen (top 10 organizational prospect...11.45 million surplus value)

Total = 67.9 million

 

Cleveland does have more prospects than two of the guys that were rumored to be part of the Lucroy deal. Why Chang and Allen, besides the fact that fans started doing their homework on them 1 1/2 years ago?

Because DS and the Indians' brass supposedly also did their homework on a trade involving those exact same players (and likely other players in the Indians' system as well) 1 1/2 years ago and already once agreed to exchange them so it's not out of the realm of possibilities that DS is still interested in obtaining them and that Cleveland is still open to letting them go. Seems like a reasonable starting point for speculation.

[StearnsFTW]

Yeah, I'd be happy with Joseph's trade. I would also substitute Julian Merryweather for Allen though.

 

Not sure if that deal would fly for Cleveland. There doesn't seem to be room for Santana there. Brantley/Zimmer/Chisenhall/Allen seems OK.

[MadThinker88]

Yeah, I'd be happy with Joseph's trade. I would also substitute Julian Merryweather for Allen though.

 

Not sure if that deal would fly for Cleveland. There doesn't seem to be room for Santana there. Brantley/Zimmer/Chisenhall/Allen seems OK.

 

It wouldn't fly for Cleveland.

 

IF Salazar is getting dealt, then Julian goes no where. Here is why: The starting depth (beyond the guys in Cleveland) is thin at the start of the year. Julian would likely be 1st arm called up if an injury in the rotation during the 1st half of the season. Ryan Merritt (the normal call the past 2 years) is now out of options. He is most likely bullpen bound (if not moved in a trade). Mike Clevinger (the other call up guy) is likely taking the rotation spot of Salazar. It is the past success of/ presence of Clevinger that is enabling the Indians to consider moving Salazar. Cody Anderson had TJ surgery in March 17 so he might be available for a call come the mid-point of the season. Other arms might also be ready come mid-season.

 

Greg Allen is most likely starting the year in AAA Columbus. He completely jumped that level last season as rosters expanded. He needs a little finishing off especially since he missed 2 months last season in AA due to injury.

 

You bring up a good point about questioning room form DSantana in the current OF. Unless a guy like Chisenhall is moved this off-season, there isn't room until 2019. So Domingo might not be the package target. As someone noted earlier, the bullpen is thin so the Indians might be after bullpen arms or players to help starting in 2019 (an effort to reload, not rebuild)..

[StearnsFTW]

Yeah, I'd be happy with Joseph's trade. I would also substitute Julian Merryweather for Allen though.

 

Not sure if that deal would fly for Cleveland. There doesn't seem to be room for Santana there. Brantley/Zimmer/Chisenhall/Allen seems OK.

 

It wouldn't fly for Cleveland.

 

IF Salazar is getting dealt, then Julian goes no where. Here is why: The starting depth (beyond the guys in Cleveland) is thin at the start of the year. Julian would likely be 1st arm called up if an injury in the rotation during the 1st half of the season. Ryan Merritt (the normal call the past 2 years) is now out of options. He is most likely bullpen bound (if not moved in a trade). Mike Clevinger (the other call up guy) is likely taking the rotation spot of Salazar. It is the past success of/ presence of Clevinger that is enabling the Indians to consider moving Salazar. Cody Anderson had TJ surgery in March 17 so he might be available for a call come the mid-point of the season. Other arms might also be ready come mid-season.

 

Greg Allen is most likely starting the year in AAA Columbus. He completely jumped that level last season as rosters expanded. He needs a little finishing off especially since he missed 2 months last season in AA due to injury.

 

You bring up a good point about questioning room form DSantana in the current OF. Unless a guy like Chisenhall is moved this off-season, there isn't room until 2019. So Domingo might not be the package target. As someone noted earlier, the bullpen is thin so the Indians might be after bullpen arms or players to help starting in 2019 (an effort to reload, not rebuild)..

 

Yeah, this doesn't surprise me. I figured Merryweather may be the next guy in line. Looking over Cleveland's 10thish prospects none of the other players excite me much.

 

And I can certainly see why Cleveland doesn't do it anyway.

[KeithStone53151]

Yeah, I'd be happy with Joseph's trade. I would also substitute Julian Merryweather for Allen though.

 

Not sure if that deal would fly for Cleveland. There doesn't seem to be room for Santana there. Brantley/Zimmer/Chisenhall/Allen seems OK.

 

It wouldn't fly for Cleveland.

 

IF Salazar is getting dealt, then Julian goes no where. Here is why: The starting depth (beyond the guys in Cleveland) is thin at the start of the year. Julian would likely be 1st arm called up if an injury in the rotation during the 1st half of the season. Ryan Merritt (the normal call the past 2 years) is now out of options. He is most likely bullpen bound (if not moved in a trade). Mike Clevinger (the other call up guy) is likely taking the rotation spot of Salazar. It is the past success of/ presence of Clevinger that is enabling the Indians to consider moving Salazar. Cody Anderson had TJ surgery in March 17 so he might be available for a call come the mid-point of the season. Other arms might also be ready come mid-season.

 

Greg Allen is most likely starting the year in AAA Columbus. He completely jumped that level last season as rosters expanded. He needs a little finishing off especially since he missed 2 months last season in AA due to injury.

 

You bring up a good point about questioning room form DSantana in the current OF. Unless a guy like Chisenhall is moved this off-season, there isn't room until 2019. So Domingo might not be the package target. As someone noted earlier, the bullpen is thin so the Indians might be after bullpen arms or players to help starting in 2019 (an effort to reload, not rebuild)..

 

For starters with Santana, he's a better hitter than all 3 of Cleveland's current outfielders. Also, a reminder that Cleveland will have an all LH hitting outfield that consists of a rookie that struggled last year and 2 guys with injury history, one with significant injury history. Having 4 good guys means one can get hurt and they won't skip a beat. If by some miracle all stay healthy all season, they all could play 120 games and potentially PH late in games. I know PH isn't as common in AL, but it still happens especially in platoon situations. Maybe Cleveland isn't interested in Santana, but dismissing it with the "well they have 3 decent outfielders, so they probably won't have interest in Santana" is a bit silly.

 

If Cleveland has a depth issue at starting pitcher, could they be interested in a Wilkerson or Guerra as part of a deal? I could especially see Wilkerson as he has options. Obviously that isn't a ton of value, but it would likely be a good way to get some additional value in a deal. Also would clear a 40 man spot. Wilkerson might be of value regardless of whether we want Julian included in a deal.

[MadThinker88]

Keith - It wasn't a dismissal of DSantana. It was the acknowledgement that DSantana might not be the trade target for Cleveland.

 

As for depth starter in Cleveland, the Indians might not be looking at that EVEN IF Salazar is moved. No Salazar deal and Clevinger might well start the year in AAA (he still has an option remaining). Even with a Salazar move, they may feel they are ok depth wise since Merritt is still around (all be it in the bullpen as a 3rd lefty/ long man) & they have others in AAA (Merryweather/ Morimando/ Plutko (off season surgery)/ Anderson (coming back from TJ).

[bill hAll Star]

Santana definitely should be a target for Cleveland, though I guess one could argue that they can get a much cheaper RH bat.

 

If there's a lefty on the mound, Zimmer and Alonso should not start. Chisenhall has developed more even splits in recent years and Brantley is a guy that can hit lefties. Encarnacion 1B, Santana DH (or corner OF).

 

With a righty on the mound, they can give any of the OF a day off or Alonso a day off at 1B and put Encarnacion in there. They've got Guyer as a RH only corner bat, but Santana would fit in pretty well.

[JosephC]

I would agree that a centerfielder would make much more sense for the Indians. Brantley got 0 at-bats as a centerfielder last year so I'd guess they just don't want to play him there anymore. As already noted Chisenhall can play there but I doubt the Indians would want him to start 100 games there in case something happened with Zimmer. Zimmer is a long-term, building block type player for them but he only slashed .241/.307/.385/.692 last season so that's probably where they need insurance. Not sure if they would view Tyler Naquin or Greg Allen as the centerfield insurance piece? If it's Allen then he'd probably have to be subtracted from the trade and a different top 10 organizational prospect included.

 

But I do think the Indians could use another outfielder. Over the last three years Chisenhall averaged 105 games played and Brantley only averaged 79. Braun is the model of durability when compared to these two players. Even if those games played for Chisenhall and Brantley are all starts and not bench appearances, it still leaves 140 games open for a different player to start. Even though Chisenhall and Brantley are both good players, I almost have to think their corner outfield situation is rather poor considering the injury factor.

 

Without this trade the Indians outfield is probably Brantley, Chisenhall, Guyer, Naquin and Zimmer. Naquin has two options left so with Santana it looks like Brantley, Chisenhall, Guyer, Santana and Zimmer. I could see the Indians doing this, especially if they are looking to move Salazar.

 

The other thing is that Brantley and Chisenhall are both free agents after this year so having Santana under control for four seasons would be make him a logical fit for them. But again, for 2019 they may be looking at Allen, Guyer (2019 option year), Naquin, Santana, Zimmer as their outfielders so Allen may have to be subtracted out of a possible trade.