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Preseason Top 100 Prospect Lists - Pipeline / BA / BP / Fangraphs

adambr2

By adambr2,
in Brewers Minor League Talk

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JosephC First Round Pick

JosephC

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Would it be a fair thing to say that all of Ray, Medeiros, Brown, Diplan, Lutz, Erceg, Turang, Gray and Ortiz (9 players!) are probably in the 101-200 range depending on subjectivity and could all be considered "fringe" top 100s that could easily move up there by the end of the season? Or am I being too generous with that list?

 

Way too generous.

 

I talk about a "top 10 organizational prospect" in an average system. That would be equivalent to a top 300 prospect since there are 30 systems.

 

Currently I would put Hiura, Burnes and Peralta as solid top 100 prospects. Then for Brewer players that would be top 10 organizational prospects in an average system, minus the 3 players already listed as top 100 prospects...I'd have the list as Corey Ray, Bryce Turang, Brett Phillips, Luis Ortiz, Lucas Erceg, Tristan Lutz, Mauricio Dubon. So I'd have the Brewer's top 10 organizational prospects or better right at 10...or basically 10 top 300 players. Jacob Nottingham was 10th in Baseball America's update, they didn't have Turang listed yet so that's the one difference between thier list and mine. Zack Brown is the big riser and he probably makes the list if he continues this pace through the remainder of the season.

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KeithStone53151 Carolina Mudcats

KeithStone53151

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Would it be a fair thing to say that all of Ray, Medeiros, Brown, Diplan, Lutz, Erceg, Turang, Gray and Ortiz (9 players!) are probably in the 101-200 range depending on subjectivity and could all be considered "fringe" top 100s that could easily move up there by the end of the season? Or am I being too generous with that list?

 

Way too generous.

 

I talk about a "top 10 organizational prospect" in an average system. That would be equivalent to a top 300 prospect since there are 30 systems.

 

Currently I would put Hiura, Burnes and Peralta as solid top 100 prospects. Then for Brewer players that would be top 10 organizational prospects in an average system, minus the 3 players already listed as top 100 prospects...I'd have the list as Corey Ray, Bryce Turang, Brett Phillips, Luis Ortiz, Lucas Erceg, Tristan Lutz, Mauricio Dubon. So I'd have the Brewer's top 10 organizational prospects or better right at 10...or basically 10 top 300 players. Jacob Nottingham was 10th in Baseball America's update, they didn't have Turang listed yet so that's the one difference between thier list and mine. Zack Brown is the big riser and he probably makes the list if he continues this pace through the remainder of the season.

 

Except not all top 10 lists are equal. For example, the Cubs might be lucky to have 3 or 4 guys in a top 300. The Brewers system is probably back end of the top 10 farms and are generally very deep with solid/unspectacular prospects that fit well within a top 200 or 300 list.

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And That Nashville Sounds

And That

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Would it be a fair thing to say that all of Ray, Medeiros, Brown, Diplan, Lutz, Erceg, Turang, Gray and Ortiz (9 players!) are probably in the 101-200 range depending on subjectivity and could all be considered "fringe" top 100s that could easily move up there by the end of the season? Or am I being too generous with that list?

 

Way too generous.

Except it's largely subjective. I'd be willing to guess you would find different talent evaluators out there who would place any number of those players in consideration for a top 200 list. Maybe some would have most, maybe some would have only a couple. But you could probably make cogent (if not definitive) arguments on all of those guys being at least fringe top 200s. It comes down to personal opinion in large measure.

 

For instance, Erceg's recent OFP/FV ratings range anywhere between 45 and 60. At 60, he's certainly a top 200 prospect, probably a top 100. At 45, he's neither. Same thing with Lutz - Kiley McDaniel loooooves Lutz and had him in a top 100 list. John Sickles didn't have Lutz in his top 175.

@YouKnowAndThat | Almost, Tim Dell
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adambr2 All-Star

adambr2

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MLB just posted an updated top 100 and top 30s. Hiura 27, Burnes 53, Peralta 82.

 

Kind of thought Ray would make it, he definitely has the credentials this year. Ray's trajectory kind of exposes some flaws in the ranking systems if you ask me. He was really overrated after the draft. Now he's been really underrated since then.

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KeithStone53151 Carolina Mudcats

KeithStone53151

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MLB just posted an updated top 100 and top 30s. Hiura 27, Burnes 53, Peralta 82.

 

Kind of thought Ray would make it, he definitely has the credentials this year. Ray's trajectory kind of exposes some flaws in the ranking systems if you ask me. He was really overrated after the draft. Now he's been really underrated since then.

 

One other flaw, I'm trying to figure out how Amaya belongs in the top 100. He's having an ok season in low a after 2 dreadful seasons, and it really was primarily one good month in April...he's been mediocre at best lately. He's a decent prospect, but to make these lists at that age/level...you really need to stand out and he doesn't. These pipeline guys just couldn't stand not having a cub in their top 100 could they?

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MilwaukeeBeers College Ball

MilwaukeeBeers

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MLB just posted an updated top 100 and top 30s. Hiura 27, Burnes 53, Peralta 82.
And that’s why it’s an MLB.com branch. Just skimmed over most of their rankings... and they’re not terrible but not great IMO. BP has totally surpassed them and BA and it isn’t even close anymore.
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Jose Cardenal1 Draft Eligible

Jose Cardenal1

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What will be interesting is between trades and Peralta and possibly Burnes graduating off the prospect list, we could see a lot of new(old) faces on the list.

 

I would guess guys like Webb and Kirby are not too far off the top 30 and could reappear. Lopez could reappear only to graduate off right away. Demi? KJ?

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Lathund Draft Eligible

Lathund

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Frangraphs has updated The Board.

 

Brewers:

19 Hiura (60 FV)

33 Burnes (55 FV)

69 Lutz (50 FV)

90 Ray (50 FV)

 

Those are the 4 Brewers among the 131 ranked prospects with 50 FV or higher. They then list a group of ~40 prospects with a 45+ FV seemingly in no particular order, which includes Peralta as well.

 

Could add that only Vlad Jr (70), Tatis Jr, Jimenez and Robles (all 65) are above 60 in this ranking.

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Yolk Prep Ball

Yolk

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MLB just posted an updated top 100 and top 30s. Hiura 27, Burnes 53, Peralta 82.

 

Kind of thought Ray would make it, he definitely has the credentials this year. Ray's trajectory kind of exposes some flaws in the ranking systems if you ask me. He was really overrated after the draft. Now he's been really underrated since then.

 

One other flaw, I'm trying to figure out how Amaya belongs in the top 100. He's having an ok season in low a after 2 dreadful seasons, and it really was primarily one good month in April...he's been mediocre at best lately. He's a decent prospect, but to make these lists at that age/level...you really need to stand out and he doesn't. These pipeline guys just couldn't stand not having a cub in their top 100 could they?

 

Amaya was a defense-first catching prospect. The fact that his bat is starting to come alive after moving up a level while showing good discipline for a 19 year old is standing out in my opinion.

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