Preseason Top 100 Prospect Lists - Pipeline / BA / BP / Fangraphs

[brewcrewdue80]

I agree about the big market bias on ranking minor leaguers. It’s always been the case. Just to throw out an example, is Chance Adams a better prospect than Corbin Burnes? Let’s see.

 

Lot of intrigue with the minor leaguers this year:

 

1. Will Keston Hiura adjust seamlessly to playing defense, including turning the double play with authority on his throws? Will his arm stay healthy?

2. Can Tristen Lutz keep cranking and be on a high end track?

3. Is Luis Ortiz in better shape? Can he huff and puff past six innings and increase his innings?

4. Can Corey Ray make some adjustments and get himself back on top 100 track as a former fifth overall pick?

5. Can Trent Grisham improve his hit tool? While he has had good obp, you’d like to see more hits.

6. With Josh Nottingham succesfully improving his defense last year, can he improve in a more balanced way, both behind the dish and batting?

7. Can Corbin Burnes continue to prove he’s the real deal? There are rightfully high hopes for him.

8. Will any of the foreign teens like Jean Carmona and company erupt?

9. Jake Gatewood took a step forward last year. Can be make another jump?

10. Lucas Erceg is a talented guy who can be inconsistent. Will he put it all together?

11. Will Taylor Williams, Nick Ramirez and Adrian Houser become bullpen assets all the way up to Milwaukee at some point?

12. Kodi Medeiros could be a tough reliever. Will that come more into focus as a former twelfth overall pick in the draft? I have lingering doubts about him as a starter but maybe he will prove himself that way still.

13. Will Mario Feliciano build on his solid year at class A where he was only 18 and acquitted himself nicely?

14. Will Cody Ponce show that he is MLB starting material? Or is he more of a sixth or seventh inning reliever and spot starter?

 

Overall, I’m bullish about our future bullpens as we have a number of guys who are bubbling up who may be able to thrive in that role.

 

Based on a video/read somewhere, Ray was most likely "Adjusting" too much with his swing. Setup and swing.

He's just no good with a wooden bat. Does Milwaukee advance above A ball when he has shown no reason to be? What Ray's Ceiling has become is Jarrod Dyson only worse with the bat.

[Eye Black]

I agree about the big market bias on ranking minor leaguers. It’s always been the case. Just to throw out an example, is Chance Adams a better prospect than Corbin Burnes? Let’s see.

I think another impact is that some team’s scouts and staff are more open when discussing their prospects than other organizations. The Texas Rangers (especially when A.J. Preller was there) always stood out as an organization that was good at promoting their prospects through various mediums that would publically share and grow the hype. I can see this being an intentional strategy in terms of building asset value. Another thing to remember is some organization aren’t always honest with these public prospect evaluators as they may not want other teams to know how they truly internally value their players. An example for you, this weekend at (White) Sox Fest, White Sox Scouting Director Nick Hostetler was paraphrased in this Tweet:

 

@FutureSox: Hostetler admits he isn’t always 100% honest with some of the big publications for prospect rankings and mentions that stars don’t always come from the top 100 lists

I am guessing he wasn’t planning on that info being shared on social media, but basically an admission that teams aren’t always genuine in the information they are willing to share regarding their internal evaluations of their own prospects. Not shocking of course, but a worthwhile enough reason to take the rankings with a grain of salt.

[clancyphile]

I agree about the big market bias on ranking minor leaguers. It’s always been the case. Just to throw out an example, is Chance Adams a better prospect than Corbin Burnes? Let’s see.

 

Lot of intrigue with the minor leaguers this year:

 

1. Will Keston Hiura adjust seamlessly to playing defense, including turning the double play with authority on his throws? Will his arm stay healthy?

2. Can Tristen Lutz keep cranking and be on a high end track?

3. Is Luis Ortiz in better shape? Can he huff and puff past six innings and increase his innings?

4. Can Corey Ray make some adjustments and get himself back on top 100 track as a former fifth overall pick?

5. Can Trent Grisham improve his hit tool? While he has had good obp, you’d like to see more hits.

6. With Josh Nottingham succesfully improving his defense last year, can he improve in a more balanced way, both behind the dish and batting?

7. Can Corbin Burnes continue to prove he’s the real deal? There are rightfully high hopes for him.

8. Will any of the foreign teens like Jean Carmona and company erupt?

9. Jake Gatewood took a step forward last year. Can be make another jump?

10. Lucas Erceg is a talented guy who can be inconsistent. Will he put it all together?

11. Will Taylor Williams, Nick Ramirez and Adrian Houser become bullpen assets all the way up to Milwaukee at some point?

12. Kodi Medeiros could be a tough reliever. Will that come more into focus as a former twelfth overall pick in the draft? I have lingering doubts about him as a starter but maybe he will prove himself that way still.

13. Will Mario Feliciano build on his solid year at class A where he was only 18 and acquitted himself nicely?

14. Will Cody Ponce show that he is MLB starting material? Or is he more of a sixth or seventh inning reliever and spot starter?

 

Overall, I’m bullish about our future bullpens as we have a number of guys who are bubbling up who may be able to thrive in that role.

 

May I add some more?

15. Will Troy Stokes continue to improve as much as he did in 2017?

16. Is Drake Owenby likely to become the next great lefty prospect in the system?

17. Is Cody Beckman a relief ace in the making?

18. Can Ronnie Gideon bounce back from his struggles in 2017?

19. Will Dallas Carroll emerge from Lucas Erceg's shadow as a 3B prospect?

20. Is Gabriel Garcia a catcher, or a utility player with a good bat?

[Jenkins5]

Gabriel Garcia has only caught like innings in 2 years. He is a 1B/3B prospect. I am excited to see if he continues to roll the way he has past two years

[MadThinker88]

Ok, Baseball Anmerica (in its free area) posted its farm system rankings today.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2018-organization-talent-rankings-reports/#f4QWD8ZYZWt1I5SI.97

 

Have to believe this is pre-Yelich trade. Especially if it matches what was listed in the handbook that is now being sent out. Will know that soon.

 

Brewers #11 per BA.

 

With 4 sources reporting that is 2 listings at #11 (BA & Street & Smith's), #8 (K Law) and #7 (Bleacher Report).

8 (or more) sources to go.

 

Among those sources are Baseball Prospectus, Minor League Ball (John Sickels), Prospect Digest, Minor League Baseball Analyst, MiLB.com, Call to the Pen & FanRag..

[JosephC]

Baseball America also updated their top 10 organizational prospect lists. A couple of months ago the Marlins were considered to have one of the weaker farm systems in Baseball. Isan Diaz showed up at #10 on their list. Diaz was #9 on the Brewer's list prior to the trade. Very interesting that he showed up lower in the Marlin's ranking. As far as the additions to the Brewer list - #8=Lutz, #9=Peralta, #10=Dubon.

[MadThinker88]

Baseball America also updated their top 10 organizational prospect lists. A couple of months ago the Marlins were considered to have one of the weaker farm systems in Baseball. Isan Diaz showed up at #10 on their list. Diaz was #9 on the Brewer's list prior to the trade. Very interesting that he showed up lower in the Marlin's ranking. As far as the additions to the Brewer list - #8=Lutz, #9=Peralta, #10=Dubon.

 

Before the Marlins started dealing guys off, yes they had one of the weaker systems. The farm has been improving since the change in ownership.

 

IIRC one of the guys the Marlins got for Stanton got ranked in the BA top 100 for 2018.

The Marlins also got a solid haul for Ozuna (off the Cardinals) & i think 1 of those is in the top 100.

Brinson was top 100 as well.

Adding those players to their existing system & then adding in the acquisitions from the Brewers really helps to deepen an otherwise shallow pool.

[Eye Black]

Hot of the presses is the Fangraphs Top 100 Prospects List.

 

If you want to get really, really excited about Tristen Lutz just scroll down to #68 on the scouting reports provided on each player in the top 100.

 

Brewers Prospects on the list...

 

#24 - Keston Hiura

#35 - Corbin Burnes

#68 - Tristen Lutz

 

Brewers Prospects listed as "Under Consideration" included...

 

Brandon Woodruff

Lucas Erceg

Corey Ray

 

Former Brewers Prospects listed...

#13 - Lewis Brinson

#52 - Monte Harrison

#87 - Isan Diaz

[Eye Black]

In addition to the Fangraphs list linked in the previous post, the Baseball Prospectus Top 101 Prospect List was also released.

 

Brewers Prospects listed...

#32 - Keston Hiura

#80 - Corbin Burnes

#81 - Brett Phillips

 

Former Brewers Prospects include...

#18 - Lewis Brinson

#49 - Monte Harrison

#85 - Isan Diaz

[SRB]

Hot of the presses is the Fangraphs Top 100 Prospects List.

 

If you want to get really, really excited about Tristen Lutz just scroll down to #68 on the scouting reports provided on each player in the top 100.

 

Brewers Prospects on the list...

 

#24 - Keston Hiura

#35 - Corbin Burnes

#68 - Tristen Lutz

 

Brewers Prospects listed as "Under Consideration" included...

 

Brandon Woodruff

Lucas Erceg

Corey Ray

 

Former Brewers Prospects listed...

#13 - Lewis Brinson

#52 - Monte Harrison

#87 - Isan Diaz

 

Nice to see Lutz in a top 100 list. If you want to lessen the impact of the Brinson trade, note that the projected ceiling for Ronald Acuna is a "4 WAR player" (aka Christian Yelich, who we now have 5 years of in his prime).

[Lathund]

From the Frangraphs top 100 chat, at least Kiley would rate the Brewers 2017 draft (At least the top of it) highly:

 

Kiley McDaniel

re: 2017 re-draft

1. McKay

2. Hiura

3. Wright

4. Gore

5. Lewis

6. Greene

7. Adell

8. Lutz

9. Pearson

8. Lutz

9. Pearson

[Eye Black]

From the Frangraphs top 100 chat, at least Kiley would rate the Brewers 2017 draft (At least the top of it) highly:

 

Kiley McDaniel

re: 2017 re-draft

1. McKay

2. Hiura

3. Wright

4. Gore

5. Lewis

6. Greene

7. Adell

8. Lutz

9. Pearson

Yes, so basically Kiley was saying that if the 2017 MLB draft was re-drafted today, he would have both Keston Hiura and Tristen Lutz ranked among his top eight overall players. For those interested, he also mentioned the next three after that list would be Baz, Bukauskas and Heliot.

 

There is obviously still a long way to go in the development for both Hiura and Lutz, but the early returns on their prospect pedigree has been very positive. To give a little additional insight, Kiley was with the Braves last year, and they had Lutz in for a private pre-draft workout. Eric Longenhagen relayed at one point that Kiley had told him Lutz’s exit velocities were “in the 110-to-115 mph range”, which is elite for anyone, let alone an 18-year old. While Fangraphs is the first top 100 list we have seen Lutz in, it seems his star is on the verge of rising very quickly with a strong showing this season.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

There is obviously still a long way to go in the development for both Hiura and Lutz, but the early returns on their prospect pedigree has been very positive. To give a little additional insight, Kiley was with the Braves last year, and they had Lutz in for a private pre-draft workout. Eric Longenhagen relayed at one point that Kiley had told him Lutz’s exit velocities were “in the 110-to-115 mph range”, which is elite for anyone, let alone an 18-year old. While Fangraphs is the first top 100 list we have seen Lutz in, it seems his star is on the verge of rising very quickly with a strong showing this season.

 

This is great to hear. Definitely softens the blow of losing a prospect like Harrison. The Brewers are going to need to hit on their high-round picks if they are going to be able to sustain a competitive team at the MLB level for the next 4-5 years. It sounds like Lutz's star is only rising, which places him either as a valuable trade chip during this 4-5 year window, or as a valuable MLB player near the end of that window.

[82brewcrew82]

It sounds as though the fundamental composition of the minor league system is changing from one that relies primarily on depth as its strength to one that relies more on top shelf talent as it's strength.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Here's another one that focuses entirely on ZIPS projections: https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/2/7/16983758/five-milwaukee-brewers-prospects-land-on-the-zips-top-100

 

They are very bullish on Woodruff and Burnes, which is great to see. The big surprise, obviously, is Dubon's inclusion, considering a few posters here are happily including him as a throw-in in potential deals. Personally, I like him. I think he offers terrific defensive ability at 2B. The team doesn't necessarily need a ton of power from that position in the future as well.

[Boomer5]

Here's another one that focuses entirely on ZIPS projections: https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/2/7/16983758/five-milwaukee-brewers-prospects-land-on-the-zips-top-100

 

They are very bullish on Woodruff and Burnes, which is great to see. The big surprise, obviously, is Dubon's inclusion, considering a few posters here are happily including him as a throw-in in potential deals. Personally, I like him. I think he offers terrific defensive ability at 2B. The team doesn't necessarily need a ton of power from that position in the future as well.

 

Phillips is a major league player at this point.

 

Dubon over Hiura? Uh ok....

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Here's another one that focuses entirely on ZIPS projections: https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/2/7/16983758/five-milwaukee-brewers-prospects-land-on-the-zips-top-100

 

They are very bullish on Woodruff and Burnes, which is great to see. The big surprise, obviously, is Dubon's inclusion, considering a few posters here are happily including him as a throw-in in potential deals. Personally, I like him. I think he offers terrific defensive ability at 2B. The team doesn't necessarily need a ton of power from that position in the future as well.

 

Phillips is a major league player at this point.

 

Dubon over Hiura? Uh ok....

 

All these lists are arbitrary, so what's the point of ripping on it? This particular list is based on data sets rather than projections. They are going to reward minor leaguers that have put up more of a consistent track record. Hiura has less than 200 PAs to his name as a professional, so there just isn't much data to draw on. Dubon is only two years older, but has 5 seasons of stats to draw from.

[Lathund]

Yet another top 100, this time the Fangraphs KATOH top 100

 

There's a description in the link, but essentially it's a data-only ranking. Based on offensive and defensive metrics and age, it projects WAR for the first 6 major league seasons and ranks players accordingly. So keep that in mind when looking at the list, and consider the type of player it would overrate, and the type it would underrate. Once all the FG prospect lists are done, there will also be a KATOH+ version, which incorporates FV grades too.

 

From a Brewer standpoint:

9: Trent Grisham

(11: Lewis Brinson)

77: Corbin Burnes

83: Brandon Woodruff

95: Freddy Peralta

100: Mauricio Dubon

[Boomer5]

Here's another one that focuses entirely on ZIPS projections: https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/2/7/16983758/five-milwaukee-brewers-prospects-land-on-the-zips-top-100

 

They are very bullish on Woodruff and Burnes, which is great to see. The big surprise, obviously, is Dubon's inclusion, considering a few posters here are happily including him as a throw-in in potential deals. Personally, I like him. I think he offers terrific defensive ability at 2B. The team doesn't necessarily need a ton of power from that position in the future as well.

 

Phillips is a major league player at this point.

 

Dubon over Hiura? Uh ok....

 

All these lists are arbitrary, so what's the point of ripping on it? This particular list is based on data sets rather than projections. They are going to reward minor leaguers that have put up more of a consistent track record. Hiura has less than 200 PAs to his name as a professional, so there just isn't much data to draw on. Dubon is only two years older, but has 5 seasons of stats to draw from.

 

If scouts truly think Dubon is a top 100 talent why on earth would we be in the market for a 2B?

 

FWIW I have only seen him play twice and he seemed like a perfectly adequate field first light hitting good speed infielder who could make it as a major league backup.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

KATOH is stats driven. It does not take into account scout eval. It's just a data point just like any other evaluation tool. However, it is an important one for Brewer fans since it appears Stearns uses KATOH or something similar to it in their evaluation of prospects. They have a high number of KATOH top prospects and seem to target them in trades.

 

That said, it is clear the Brewers don't consider him as a can't miss prospect (like Arcia was). Since they are in a win now (or win sooner) mode, it makes sense for them to look for a 2B upgrade. My guess is that they have not signed anyone yet since they don't want to sign a long term contract. With Dubon and Hiura in the minors, there is no point in blocking them with an aging vet.

 

Personally, I think Dubon will be at best a superutility guy at best. Hiura, on the other hand, I think will be a star.

[wallus]

 

If scouts truly think Dubon is a top 100 talent why on earth would we be in the market for a 2B?

 

FWIW I have only seen him play twice and he seemed like a perfectly adequate field first light hitting good speed infielder who could make it as a major league backup.

 

The Brewers haven't signed anyone that would block Dubon when he is ready.

[SRB]

Yet another top 100, this time the Fangraphs KATOH top 100

 

There's a description in the link, but essentially it's a data-only ranking. Based on offensive and defensive metrics and age, it projects WAR for the first 6 major league seasons and ranks players accordingly. So keep that in mind when looking at the list, and consider the type of player it would overrate, and the type it would underrate. Once all the FG prospect lists are done, there will also be a KATOH+ version, which incorporates FV grades too.

 

From a Brewer standpoint:

9: Trent Grisham

(11: Lewis Brinson)

77: Corbin Burnes

83: Brandon Woodruff

95: Freddy Peralta

100: Mauricio Dubon

 

Grisham's inclusion in this is pretty exciting to me, given that he's not a "random guys with great MiLB stats" like those KATOH prospects sometimes are, but instead his inclusion is corroborated by Grisham's excellent prospect pedigree.

 

My guess is that KATOH is very impressed with the BB% and OBP and thinks that the lack of power is something that will come as Grisham ages.

[Eye Black]

Yet another top 100, this time the Fangraphs KATOH top 100

 

There's a description in the link, but essentially it's a data-only ranking. Based on offensive and defensive metrics and age, it projects WAR for the first 6 major league seasons and ranks players accordingly. So keep that in mind when looking at the list, and consider the type of player it would overrate, and the type it would underrate. Once all the FG prospect lists are done, there will also be a KATOH+ version, which incorporates FV grades too.

 

From a Brewer standpoint:

9: Trent Grisham

(11: Lewis Brinson)

77: Corbin Burnes

83: Brandon Woodruff

95: Freddy Peralta

100: Mauricio Dubon

 

Grisham's inclusion in this is pretty exciting to me, given that he's not a "random guys with great MiLB stats" like those KATOH prospects sometimes are, but instead his inclusion is corroborated by Grisham's excellent prospect pedigree.

 

My guess is that KATOH is very impressed with the BB% and OBP and thinks that the lack of power is something that will come as Grisham ages.

I highly recommend you listen to this podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 1173: Actual Stats vs. Actual Scouts

 

Chris Mitchell goes into detail about Trent Grisham’s KATOH ranking. Some of the reasons you mentioned, but he also notes that Grisham had a very high rate of balls hit to the center of the field last year (37.6%). He said that usually players with that batted ball trait carry higher BABIPs (in the .350’s), but that Trent Grisham had a lower BABIP (.299 last year). He theorizes that he may have been a victim of bad luck, although he also offers the caveat that is possible something else is causing the lower than expected BABIP. Also, if you look for Trent’s player page on Fangraphs he is still listed as Trent Clark.

[MadThinker88]

Just an FYI but Bleacher Report has updated its Farm System Rankings again. The last update was on 1/4/18 & they had done an update after the minor league season had ended in Sept 2017.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2759103-mlb-farm-system-rankings-pre-2018-spring-training-edition

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2751590-bleacher-reports-updated-farm-system-rankings-at-the-start-of-2018

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2731819-re-ranking-all-30-mlb-farm-systems-at-the-end-of-2017s-milb-season

 

The Brewers Farm has gone from #5, to #7 to now #14 (post Yelich trade)

In comparison the Marlins system has gone from #28 to #26 (Post Gordon, Stanton & Ozuna trades) to #18 (post Yelich trade)

 

Others teams in NL Central

Reds: #10, then #9, now #8

Cardinals: #11, then #13, now #11

Pirates: #18, then #16, now #16

Cubs: #25, then #27, now #27

[TJseven7]

From the Frangraphs top 100 chat, at least Kiley would rate the Brewers 2017 draft (At least the top of it) highly:

 

Kiley McDaniel

re: 2017 re-draft

1. McKay

2. Hiura

3. Wright

4. Gore

5. Lewis

6. Greene

7. Adell

8. Lutz

9. Pearson

Yes, so basically Kiley was saying that if the 2017 MLB draft was re-drafted today, he would have both Keston Hiura and Tristen Lutz ranked among his top eight overall players. For those interested, he also mentioned the next three after that list would be Baz, Bukauskas and Heliot.

 

There is obviously still a long way to go in the development for both Hiura and Lutz, but the early returns on their prospect pedigree has been very positive. To give a little additional insight, Kiley was with the Braves last year, and they had Lutz in for a private pre-draft workout. Eric Longenhagen relayed at one point that Kiley had told him Lutz’s exit velocities were “in the 110-to-115 mph range”, which is elite for anyone, let alone an 18-year old. While Fangraphs is the first top 100 list we have seen Lutz in, it seems his star is on the verge of rising very quickly with a strong showing this season.

 

Every time we go over roster composition and should we trade santana stuff I keep thinking how amazing this team could be with Lutz in RF and Huira at 2b.

 

Woodruff Burnes Peralta Huira Lutz feel like the key to an elite team.

 

Cain yelich braun/thames shaw huira lutz arcia C

 

I mean look at that! Knebel Hader Peralta in the pen. Teams got 2 arms you can trust. Nelson FA Woodruff Burnes. Could decide it.