Lorenzo Cain

[MVP2110]

How is his defense? Is it still really good? I have a hard time understanding defensive metrics so maybe one of you can more accurately tell me.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

How is his defense? Is it still really good? I have a hard time understanding defensive metrics so maybe one of you can more accurately tell me.

 

According to https://www.royalsreview.com/2017/8/3/16087764/lets-look-at-lorenzo-cains-defense-this-year, it is trending downward, but considering he was considered an elite talent in CF only a couple years ago, he'd still be considered serviceable out there. Of course, if we are talking about a 4-year deal, and the trend continues, things don't look great once you get into 2020 territory. Is it possible that he remains an above-average defender and hitter into his mid 30s? Sure ... but not likely.

[MVP2110]

How is his defense? Is it still really good? I have a hard time understanding defensive metrics so maybe one of you can more accurately tell me.

 

According to https://www.royalsreview.com/2017/8/3/16087764/lets-look-at-lorenzo-cains-defense-this-year, it is trending downward, but considering he was considered an elite talent in CF only a couple years ago, he'd still be considered serviceable out there. Of course, if we are talking about a 4-year deal, and the trend continues, things don't look great once you get into 2020 territory. Is it possible that he remains an above-average defender and hitter into his mid 30s? Sure ... but not likely.

 

Thank you, I knew he was once considered elite out there. Wasn't sure if he still was. I am not sure he has the bat to be able to play a corner spot so if he isn't going to be great in center than I agree I would probably pass.

[MrTPlush]

Lorenzo Cain’s stat line last year is such a tease because it is exactly what we could use on this team. That being said I can’t help but think how terrible a 4+ year deal with him would likely end up being. His game depends on his speed and defense which is going the wrong way. I don’t really want a long term OF featuring two poor defenders and an average one in CF.

[MVP2110]

I will say, while I'm not a fan of signing him on a big four year deal, putting him and Yelich at the top of our lineup would be a lot of fun with their OBP's

[tmwiese55]

Cain is certainly enticing for the upcoming season for the reasons said of good contact skills being so needed in our lineup, but a 4 year deal taking him to age 35 I'm very skeptical on, assuming you're talking 15ish mil per year. When you have a guy in Santan controlled for the same 4 years for almost no money who had a 370 obp last year. Just not sure why we're jumping through hoops to make this happen by dumping Santana instead of just putting the resources into pitching. Seems much more easily accomplished. And our top two prospects can play CF for free the next few years.

[JohnBriggs12]

Cain is certainly enticing for the upcoming season for the reasons said of good contact skills being so needed in our lineup, but a 4 year deal taking him to age 35 I'm very skeptical on, assuming you're talking 15ish mil per year. When you have a guy in Santan controlled for the same 4 years for almost no money who had a 370 obp last year. Just not sure why we're jumping through hoops to make this happen by dumping Santana instead of just putting the resources into pitching. Seems much more easily accomplished. And our top two prospects can play CF for free the next few years.

 

I know the trend in baseball is to youth, but my goodness the Brewers signed Aramis Ramirez to what turned out to be a 4 year $46 million deal when he was entering his age 34 season and he had a much less athletic body than does Cain. Granted wasn't as much money, but revenues in baseball are up considerably since 2012. Yeah the game has tilted toward youth, but 2012 is not that long ago and Cain has shown no signs he's anything but still in his prime. $15-16 million per year is far from outrageous for a player of his age and production. The Cubs are on the hook for $22 million a year for Heyward's age 32 and 33 seasons and he's not half the player Cain is right now. Who would you rather have the next 4 years, Heyward at $90 million (plus two more years at $44 million) or Cain even though he's older at $60-65 million total and no obligation after that? Cain's can be moved in that time too for a decent return barring a complete collapse.

[pacopete4]

Cain is certainly enticing for the upcoming season for the reasons said of good contact skills being so needed in our lineup, but a 4 year deal taking him to age 35 I'm very skeptical on, assuming you're talking 15ish mil per year. When you have a guy in Santan controlled for the same 4 years for almost no money who had a 370 obp last year. Just not sure why we're jumping through hoops to make this happen by dumping Santana instead of just putting the resources into pitching. Seems much more easily accomplished. And our top two prospects can play CF for free the next few years.

 

I know the trend in baseball is to youth, but my goodness the Brewers signed Aramis Ramirez to what turned out to be a 4 year $46 million deal when he was entering his age 34 season and he had a much less athletic body than does Cain. Granted wasn't as much money, but revenues in baseball are up considerably since 2012. Yeah the game has tilted toward youth, but 2012 is not that long ago.

 

I would completely agree with you if we had the black hole like we did at third base. Until we move some of our outfielders, it just doesn't make sense to make a splash with a player like Cain when we could be seeing what Brinson/Phillips can do for us out there.

[PaulLeoMolitor]

My take on Cain is that the Brewers have made a 3 year offer, and at this point, it is the best offer. Cain's agent is putting out info. that he has multiple 4 year offers on the table in order to get the Brewers to go to a 4th year, even though there are no 4 year offers that have been made at this point.

[JohnBriggs12]

Cain is certainly enticing for the upcoming season for the reasons said of good contact skills being so needed in our lineup, but a 4 year deal taking him to age 35 I'm very skeptical on, assuming you're talking 15ish mil per year. When you have a guy in Santan controlled for the same 4 years for almost no money who had a 370 obp last year. Just not sure why we're jumping through hoops to make this happen by dumping Santana instead of just putting the resources into pitching. Seems much more easily accomplished. And our top two prospects can play CF for free the next few years.

 

I know the trend in baseball is to youth, but my goodness the Brewers signed Aramis Ramirez to what turned out to be a 4 year $46 million deal when he was entering his age 34 season and he had a much less athletic body than does Cain. Granted wasn't as much money, but revenues in baseball are up considerably since 2012. Yeah the game has tilted toward youth, but 2012 is not that long ago.

 

I would completely agree with you if we had the black hole like we did at third base. Until we move some of our outfielders, it just doesn't make sense to make a splash with a player like Cain when we could be seeing what Brinson/Phillips can do for us out there.

 

At some point you stop seeing what guys can do and you make an attempt to win with known quantities. It's the same thing with waiting an hoping for a guy like Villar to rebound. Cain's a proven outfield talent. Phillips and Brinson are not. CF was a black hole in 2017. The guy who saw the most action there hit .220 and fanned 175 times. Cain or Yelich would improve the current roster immediately, and not just for 2018. Cain would allow prospects to be used for pitching.

[monty57]

Cain is certainly enticing for the upcoming season for the reasons said of good contact skills being so needed in our lineup, but a 4 year deal taking him to age 35 I'm very skeptical on, assuming you're talking 15ish mil per year. When you have a guy in Santan controlled for the same 4 years for almost no money who had a 370 obp last year. Just not sure why we're jumping through hoops to make this happen by dumping Santana instead of just putting the resources into pitching. Seems much more easily accomplished. And our top two prospects can play CF for free the next few years.

 

This whole thing is intriguing, and really only makes any sense if there are a lot of moving parts.

 

Braun is our LF for the next 3-4 years. He's not going anywhere, so put an "X" there.

 

Brinson and maybe Phillips go to Miami to get Yelich, locking up RF for the next five seasons.

 

Cain gets signed, locking up CF for the next 4 seasons.

 

Our OF is then more "proven," but also older and more expensive. That would seemingly get made up by trading away Santana for a team-controlled SP and/or 2B, and that would hopefully be a serious upgrade (with a lot of team control) in an area(s) of need. If we get a 2B, then we probably look to trade at least one of Villar/Perez/Sogard, even if that just gets us some teen-aged "lottery chips." If we get a SP, especially if we also sign a FA, then we potentially look to trade Woodruff as we would have a full MLB staff with guys like Burns and Ortiz getting ready to make the move to the majors.

 

I don't know if this will work out, and it's something I wouldn't have imagined a couple of weeks ago, but it could turn us into a legitimate playoff contender for the next half-decade with just the guys on the MLB roster, while maintaining a lot of talent in the lower minors who will be ready to step up in the next couple of seasons, hopefully extending this out so it's not a "window," but a sustainably good team.

 

Of course, the concern (if all of this does come together) is that we could have a lot of money in a few seasons going to guys in their mid-30's (Braun, Cain, Darvish/Arrieta/Cobb) and that could blow up on us. The hope would probably be that some of our remaining minor leaguers would be able to step in over the next few seasons to bring down the payroll and fill in if some of the older guys are declining.

 

Of course, if Stearns is doing all of this now, he will not sit on his hands in the future, so anything I can dream up now will look completely different 12-24 months from now.

[pacopete4]

 

I would completely agree with you if we had the black hole like we did at third base. Until we move some of our outfielders, it just doesn't make sense to make a splash with a player like Cain when we could be seeing what Brinson/Phillips can do for us out there.

 

At some point you stop seeing what guys can do and you make an attempt to win with known quantities. It's the same thing with waiting an hoping for a guy like Villar to rebound. Cain's a proven outfield talent. Phillips and Brinson are not. CF was a black hole in 2017. The guy who saw the most action there hit .220 and fanned 175 times. Cain or Yelich would improve the current roster immediately, and not just for 2018. Cain would allow prospects to be used for pitching.

 

We are not at that point if we have Brinson and Phillips on this roster. It would make no sense to not give two top prospects an opportunity. Zero. Zilch. At some point, you just have to find out what these guys can do. This year might be that if no other moves are made.

[DR28]

Cain is certainly enticing for the upcoming season for the reasons said of good contact skills being so needed in our lineup, but a 4 year deal taking him to age 35 I'm very skeptical on, assuming you're talking 15ish mil per year. When you have a guy in Santan controlled for the same 4 years for almost no money who had a 370 obp last year. Just not sure why we're jumping through hoops to make this happen by dumping Santana instead of just putting the resources into pitching. Seems much more easily accomplished. And our top two prospects can play CF for free the next few years.

 

This whole thing is intriguing, and really only makes any sense if there are a lot of moving parts.

 

Braun is our LF for the next 3-4 years. He's not going anywhere, so put an "X" there.

 

Brinson and maybe Phillips go to Miami to get Yelich, locking up RF for the next five seasons.

 

Cain gets signed, locking up CF for the next 4 seasons.

 

Our OF is then more "proven," but also older and more expensive. That would seemingly get made up by trading away Santana for a team-controlled SP and/or 2B, and that would hopefully be a serious upgrade (with a lot of team control) in an area(s) of need. If we get a 2B, then we probably look to trade at least one of Villar/Perez/Sogard, even if that just gets us some teen-aged "lottery chips." If we get a SP, especially if we also sign a FA, then we potentially look to trade Woodruff as we would have a full MLB staff with guys like Burns and Ortiz getting ready to make the move to the majors.

 

I don't know if this will work out, and it's something I wouldn't have imagined a couple of weeks ago, but it could turn us into a legitimate playoff contender for the next half-decade with just the guys on the MLB roster, while maintaining a lot of talent in the lower minors who will be ready to step up in the next couple of seasons, hopefully extending this out so it's not a "window," but a sustainably good team.

 

Of course, the concern (if all of this does come together) is that we could have a lot of money in a few seasons going to guys in their mid-30's (Braun, Cain, Darvish/Arrieta/Cobb) and that could blow up on us. The hope would probably be that some of our remaining minor leaguers would be able to step in over the next few seasons to bring down the payroll and fill in if some of the older guys are declining.

 

Of course, if Stearns is doing all of this now, he will not sit on his hands in the future, so anything I can dream up now will look completely different 12-24 months from now.

 

Man, Stearns needs to make this happen!

 

Our OF would look very nice and not to mention about much better our lineup becomes...

[brewcrewdue80]

You'd have to think Santana would have to be moved 1st for a SP before Cain would be signed. Got to keep in mind, folks on Yelich are suggesting to take on a Castro contract or even Wei Chen's. Yelich costs more. And in no way can you add these guys without addressing Pitching, which has to be in the form of a FA signing if Santana doesn't bring one back initially. +7 Yelich + 10Castro/Chen (13 for Prado) Adding Cain is 15-17mil. You move a near 70 Mil payroll to 101mil with the ~31mil in these deals. IF you take Chen it's 20mil next year. You're wondering if he's even playing for Milwaukee with his stats after that contract. So you still need a SP.

 

Arrieta is 22.5+

Cobb or Lynn are 14+

 

You'll have Nelson/Kneble going to arbitration the next season...Villar too if he bounces back BRef has a shocking 45.9mil Arb costs but a lot of these guys won't be on the team that figures on that...Still Just Nelson/Kneble has to add 9-14mil to the Payroll.

[tmwiese55]

I know the trend in baseball is to youth, but my goodness the Brewers signed Aramis Ramirez to what turned out to be a 4 year $46 million deal when he was entering his age 34 season and he had a much less athletic body than does Cain. Granted wasn't as much money, but revenues in baseball are up considerably since 2012. Yeah the game has tilted toward youth, but 2012 is not that long ago.

 

I would completely agree with you if we had the black hole like we did at third base. Until we move some of our outfielders, it just doesn't make sense to make a splash with a player like Cain when we could be seeing what Brinson/Phillips can do for us out there.

 

At some point you stop seeing what guys can do and you make an attempt to win with known quantities. It's the same thing with waiting an hoping for a guy like Villar to rebound. Cain's a proven outfield talent. Phillips and Brinson are not. CF was a black hole in 2017. The guy who saw the most action there hit .220 and fanned 175 times. Cain or Yelich would improve the current roster immediately, and not just for 2018. Cain would allow prospects to be used for pitching.

 

 

 

Santana is a proven talent though.

 

3B requires way less athleticism than OF and we had a blackhole at 3B. We do not at OF. The hole is pitching, let's focus there.

 

Cain did miss 60 games in 2016. And just a bit of regression to take him from 295/360ish like he is now down to 270/330 is basically what you can get for rookie scale rather than 15 mil per year and combine that with reduced athleticism bring down his D (which is one of his positives now). Hey I get it, I wouldn't have much concern the next two years but the lasat two you might be looking at two OF spots being used by overpaid underperforming guys. All the while you had a 280/370 already on your team that you're paying nothing that you pushed out instead.

 

Also, Cubs giving Heyward a truly awful contract doesn't mean we should do the same.

 

And as MKE fans we've been laughing for years at big markets giving out big contracts to 32ish yr old people and then watching them reduce to blah players. Could be natural age progression, could be once you get your last big payday you work a little less. Who knows, but it happens over and over.

[wallus]

Cain is certainly enticing for the upcoming season for the reasons said of good contact skills being so needed in our lineup, but a 4 year deal taking him to age 35 I'm very skeptical on, assuming you're talking 15ish mil per year. When you have a guy in Santan controlled for the same 4 years for almost no money who had a 370 obp last year. Just not sure why we're jumping through hoops to make this happen by dumping Santana instead of just putting the resources into pitching. Seems much more easily accomplished. And our top two prospects can play CF for free the next few years.

 

This whole thing is intriguing, and really only makes any sense if there are a lot of moving parts.

 

Braun is our LF for the next 3-4 years. He's not going anywhere, so put an "X" there.

 

Brinson and maybe Phillips go to Miami to get Yelich, locking up RF for the next five seasons.

 

Cain gets signed, locking up CF for the next 4 seasons.

 

Our OF is then more "proven," but also older and more expensive. That would seemingly get made up by trading away Santana for a team-controlled SP and/or 2B, and that would hopefully be a serious upgrade (with a lot of team control) in an area(s) of need. If we get a 2B, then we probably look to trade at least one of Villar/Perez/Sogard, even if that just gets us some teen-aged "lottery chips." If we get a SP, especially if we also sign a FA, then we potentially look to trade Woodruff as we would have a full MLB staff with guys like Burns and Ortiz getting ready to make the move to the majors.

 

I don't know if this will work out, and it's something I wouldn't have imagined a couple of weeks ago, but it could turn us into a legitimate playoff contender for the next half-decade with just the guys on the MLB roster, while maintaining a lot of talent in the lower minors who will be ready to step up in the next couple of seasons, hopefully extending this out so it's not a "window," but a sustainably good team.

 

Of course, the concern (if all of this does come together) is that we could have a lot of money in a few seasons going to guys in their mid-30's (Braun, Cain, Darvish/Arrieta/Cobb) and that could blow up on us. The hope would probably be that some of our remaining minor leaguers would be able to step in over the next few seasons to bring down the payroll and fill in if some of the older guys are declining.

 

Of course, if Stearns is doing all of this now, he will not sit on his hands in the future, so anything I can dream up now will look completely different 12-24 months from now.

 

I was thinking the same exact thing with the only difference being trading for Abreu from the Sox. I am not sold on Thames/Aguilar.

[reillymcshane]

Cain is certainly enticing for the upcoming season for the reasons said of good contact skills being so needed in our lineup, but a 4 year deal taking him to age 35 I'm very skeptical on, assuming you're talking 15ish mil per year. When you have a guy in Santan controlled for the same 4 years for almost no money who had a 370 obp last year. Just not sure why we're jumping through hoops to make this happen by dumping Santana instead of just putting the resources into pitching. Seems much more easily accomplished. And our top two prospects can play CF for free the next few years.

 

I know the trend in baseball is to youth, but my goodness the Brewers signed Aramis Ramirez to what turned out to be a 4 year $46 million deal when he was entering his age 34 season and he had a much less athletic body than does Cain. Granted wasn't as much money, but revenues in baseball are up considerably since 2012. Yeah the game has tilted toward youth, but 2012 is not that long ago and Cain has shown no signs he's anything but still in his prime. $15-16 million per year is far from outrageous for a player of his age and production. The Cubs are on the hook for $22 million a year for Heyward's age 32 and 33 seasons and he's not half the player Cain is right now. Who would you rather have the next 4 years, Heyward at $90 million (plus two more years at $44 million) or Cain even though he's older at $60-65 million total and no obligation after that? Cain's can be moved in that time too for a decent return barring a complete collapse.

 

Just because Aramis Ramirez had a nice age 34 season doesn't mean Lorenzo Cain will. The Mets signed Jason Bay going into his age 31 season - they got 2.0 bWAR production TOTAL over the next four years for $66M. That does not mean I should think every age 31 player is going to suddenly stink. We can pick a hundred players and they will all be different - but as a whole, they show a trend. And the trend is that age 35 players aren't that good.

 

As for Cain, yes, he is showing signs of slowing down. If you look at his defensive numbers (bWAR, fWAR, UZR), he has slipped every year for five consecutive years. He's still solid, but not great. He has offset that by becoming a better hitter. However, the odds are that he will regress. That's just the way it is.

 

All that said, Lorenzo Cain has been a good player. And will likely continue to be a good player. He had a 5.3 bWAR and a 4.1 fWAR last year. Even if you say he regresses each year - and go with the lowest number (fWAR's 4.1 rating), you're talking about a guy that puts up 3.6, 3.1, 2.6 and 2.1 WAR. That's 11+ WAR - which is easily worth $60M (plus the lost draft pick).

 

Ideally, you want to avoid that final year, but to be honest, if the club really wants him, and his price is reasonable (say 4-years/$56-60M) the extra year is much more palatable.

 

I am concerned a bit about Cain's overall health. He's had some nagging injuries in his career - although last year he played more games than ever. Perhaps you can do a three-year deal with a fourth year vesting based on playing time.

[monty57]

Note that while I posted my guess of what I think Stearns is looking at doing, I'm generally against signing guys in their 30's to multi-year deals. While I'm very intrigued to see what is going to happen, at the same time I'm scared at the prospect of having multiple 30-somethings taking up a decent chunk of our payroll for the next several seasons.

 

I think the reasoning is that monetary prices have come down for older free agents, while trade value of good MLB-ready prospects is at an all-time high. If we get enough for guys like Brinson and Santana and get good enough deals on older FA's, then it could make sense. Stearns has spent a career looking for young, controllable talent, so if he's thinking about trading some of that away, he must be getting blown away with offers.

[mattyo]

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The #Brewers still are trying to sign free-agent outfielder Lorenzo Cain, sources tell The Athletic. Nothing changes with acquisition of Yelich.

[Warning Track Power]

Oh man...Domingo will be on the move quickly for SP after that. On base machines to top the lineup.

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Thames

[SRB]

Still don't think a big Cain contract is very wise, but a Yelich-Cain-Phillips defensive OF on days Braun sits would be fun.

[mattyo]

Oh man...Domingo will be on the move quickly for SP after that. On base machines to top the lineup.

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Thames

 

That lineup is mouth watering.

[pogokat]

Speaking emotionally, I’m all for this. I love Lorenzo Cain. Along with Braun and molitor, Cain is one of my all time favorite players. I’d love for the crew to bring him back. I think it happens. This is a great time to be a fan!

[pogokat]

Lol. Announced as I posted the above. Wow!!!

[reillymcshane]

I'm locking this thread. Go to major league forum to discuss.