Lorenzo Cain

[danzig6767]

 

I think you are generally getting too caught up in WAR and defensive value. While his avg and obp might hover in that general area for the next 4 years, the SB totals and defensive value are likely to keep trending downward as they already are. Cain would still fit well on the team if all those moving parts come together, but unless the asking price comes way down this won't work for us. We'd also be giving up our comp pick to sign him.

So much would also depend on what we got for say Santana and Broxton, along with what Cain was paid.

 

If hypothetically though he was signed at 3yrs with a 4th year a team option or based on certain criteria being met, maybe Cain plays only a year or two in CF and then moved to RF as his speed declines, but odds are he'd be a plus defender at a corner spot.

 

Sure, much of Cain's value had been by being a very good defensive CF, the most important defensive position in the outfield, but there still is value also at being a really good defender in RF, so long at his bat remained pretty good.

 

Santana is the reverse. That dude is already a very good hitter and could get even better at the plate, but he's bad defensively.

[brewcrewdue80]

For me, Cain is a hard pass.

 

Even if he comes at four years, $46 million, it also costs a pick and the bonus pool money. That opportunity cost is too much, even with the Crew drafting relatively late, thanks to an 86-win season.

 

Phillips, Brinson, Stokes, Santana, Broxton are all younger and cheaper, even if not as good in some aspects.

 

So, why give up the pick and bonus pool money for Cain? It makes no sense.

 

This isn't a 1st round pick loss anymore. Its #73 or 74 however it turns out when the QO guys are signed. Said this elsewhere, BRef has the avg ML player as being worth under 3War in his career from that draft selection. And only 37% even make it to the ML.

I'd like the move if we got a legit TOR pitcher who is actually not Archer or Duffy. Someone Stearns has secretly worked a deal for. That Robbie Ray idea would be one.

[Eye Black]

I agree that this is probably just Cain's agent trying to drive up the value.

Well I guess we could ask him... agent39, are you just trying to drive up his value?

[DR28]

Im starting to really get behind us signing Cain, he's the type of hitter we need and he could be our answer at leadoff.

 

If we signed Cain and traded Santana and Broxton... Would we platoon Brinson and Phillips in RF?

 

Braun-Cain-Brinson/Phillips

 

Damn I really like that!

[MrTPlush]

I admit I haven’t watched much Lorenzo Cain in my life, but if both Phillips/Cain are on the field at the same time I would probably put Phillips in CF over Cain. Cain probably over Brinson in CF. Lorenzo Cain would likely end up in RF sooner rather than later in a 4 year contract. I’d guess.

[clancyphile]

 

So, why give up the pick and bonus pool money for Cain? It makes no sense.

 

Because you would have traded Santana for a haul before signing him. I would imagine Cain in RF would give you very good defense.

 

Brinson also gives good defense. Stokes would likely be better defensively in right than Santana as well.

 

Both would cost far less than Cain, not just on payroll, but in terms of the pick and bonus pool.

 

I'm not opposed to dealing Santana, but if the Crew signs Cain... I think that becomes a step back in some ways, and it hurts the farm system.

[KeithStone53151]

 

So, why give up the pick and bonus pool money for Cain? It makes no sense.

 

Because you would have traded Santana for a haul before signing him. I would imagine Cain in RF would give you very good defense.

 

Brinson also gives good defense. Stokes would likely be better defensively in right than Santana as well.

 

Both would cost far less than Cain, not just on payroll, but in terms of the pick and bonus pool.

 

I'm not opposed to dealing Santana, but if the Crew signs Cain... I think that becomes a step back in some ways, and it hurts the farm system.

 

I think this idea of bringing in Cain and dealing Santana/Broxton makes some sense...but at the same time Cain or Brinson lose so much value playing RF, especially in Miller Park. We have a very small park and don't benefit as much as we would in San Diego or Miami or Pittsburgh from plus defense/speed at corner spots.

 

I think if all the moving parts happen as some hope, Brinson would have to go with Cain taking over CF for it to make the most sense. I know half the board is itching to "sell high" on Brinson despite how high his value would skyrocket with even a decent season at the MLB level...but I don't think that's a route we should or will go.

[wallus]

I think this idea of bringing in Cain and dealing Santana/Broxton makes some sense...but at the same time Cain or Brinson lose so much value playing RF, especially in Miller Park.

 

Well half of the games are not at Miller Park and Cain would be a plus defender in any outfield spot. I am ready to improve the defense personally. There were way too many times that balls dropped on Santana that Cain/Brinson/Phillips easily catches.

[KeithStone53151]

 

Well half of the games are not at Miller Park and Cain would be a plus defender in any outfield spot. I am ready to improve the defense personally. There were way too many times that balls dropped on Santana that Cain/Brinson/Phillips easily catches.

 

It's one thing to have a CF prospect getting paid a min salary break into the bigs and fill in a corner spot. It's another to pay the noted asking price for a defense-first CF and stick him in RF. I can't imagine a scenario where Brinson and Cain are both on the roster, it just doesn't make any sense.

 

If you really want to get rid of Santana in RF, moving all of Santana/Brinson/Broxton it would then make sense again to target Cain and stick Phillips in RF. Phillips isn't quite as good on defense as Brinson, and Phillips plays up in RF with that 80 grade arm. This series of moves probably nets us at least 1 high end SP and RP along with some solid prospects in return. You'd bring in Cain, and also a 4th OF that could fit the corner spots well(phillips/perez would backup CF so your target would be a bat first guy). All this said, it's still way too many moving parts. Way more likely that we deal one outfielder(Broxton) for a RP or prospects, sign a RP, and roll into spring with Woodruff/Hader/Suter/Gallardo/Guerra/Jungmann/Houser/Willaims/etc battling for 2 SP and 2 RP jobs.

[KeithStone53151]

I agree that this is probably just Cain's agent trying to drive up the value.

Well I guess we could ask him... agent39, are you just trying to drive up his value?

 

"We are staying with our goals and priorities,” said Stearns, who has focused on starting pitching, his bullpen and finding help at second base. “We think we’ve made progress with the work we’ve done to this point. We’ll see what the next four, five, six weeks have in store for us."

 

Pulled from Haudricourt's article. Reading between the lines, that suggests reported interest may just be a phone call checking in on asking price.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

How is Cain a defense first player? He still bats around .300 each year with 20+ stolen bases. Looks like a well rounded player to me.

[KeithStone53151]

How is Cain a defense first player? He still bats around .300 each year with 20+ stolen bases. Looks like a well rounded player to me.

 

His bat doesn't play well in RF. He's a career 290/342/421/763 hitter. Even if he maintains that production, his bat doesn't play in a corner. He's cracked double digit HR twice in 5 full seasons with a max of 16. That's all well and good for a plus-defensive CF, but is not at all what you are looking for from a corner OF. Similarly, signing Cain and moving Brinson to RF negatively affects Brinson's value.

[Eye Black]

I agree that this is probably just Cain's agent trying to drive up the value.

Well I guess we could ask him... agent39, are you just trying to drive up his value?

 

"We are staying with our goals and priorities,” said Stearns, who has focused on starting pitching, his bullpen and finding help at second base. “We think we’ve made progress with the work we’ve done to this point. We’ll see what the next four, five, six weeks have in store for us."

 

Pulled from Haudricourt's article. Reading between the lines, that suggests reported interest may just be a phone call checking in on asking price.

The Rosenthal article considers that, but then notes that there has been reoccurring interest. This is directly from the Rosenthal article: “Brewers general manager David Stearns touches base with virtually every free agent, so perhaps this is simply due diligence.” .... “Cain, though, has been a frequent topic of conversation among Brewers people this off-season, sources say.”

[nate82]

 

The Rosenthal article considers that, but then notes that there has been reoccurring interest. This is directly from the Rosenthal article: “Brewers general manager David Stearns touches base with virtually every free agent, so perhaps this is simply due diligence.” .... “Cain, though, has been a frequent topic of conversation among Brewers people this off-season, sources say.”

 

Not surprising the Brewers would have frequent conversations about Cain especially when you look at them trying to deal one or both of Broxton and Santana. While that would open up a spot for both or one of Brinson and Phillips you still have to stay open that neither may perform as well as you would like. Cain makes some sense in RF for the Brewers if you trade Santana you can fill that spot with Cain and have CF be a platoon of Broxton/Phillips or Brinson/Phillips. You would probably want to trade both Broxton and Santana and then bring in Cain to play RF and then give Phillips and Brinson CF or give Brinson RF and have Cain and Phillips as your CF.

 

It makes some sense that the Brewers are talking about Cain and keeping that possibility open but I think a Cain signing would depend on a Santana trade and that doesn't look all that likely right now.

[DR28]

Rumor has it...

 

Cubs have 3 yr offer out to Cain.

[pacopete4]

Rumor has it...

 

Cubs have 3 yr offer out to Cain.

 

As they should. He would help their lineup and defense out a lot.

[bill hAll Star]

I agree that this is probably just Cain's agent trying to drive up the value.

Well I guess we could ask him... agent39, are you just trying to drive up his value?

 

"We are staying with our goals and priorities,” said Stearns, who has focused on starting pitching, his bullpen and finding help at second base. “We think we’ve made progress with the work we’ve done to this point. We’ll see what the next four, five, six weeks have in store for us."

 

Pulled from Haudricourt's article. Reading between the lines, that suggests reported interest may just be a phone call checking in on asking price.

 

He’s not going to outright say, “we’re also looking at outfielders, because we may soon be dealing several outfielders making a position of strength as of now one that might need an upgrade.”

[Montezuma]

I like prospects and the the concept of them reaching the majors as much as any one here commenting. But they are prospects/ an unknown. Stearns has built a strong group of minor leaguers to develop or trade to make our parent club competitive. Do I want to see Phillips or Brinson traded? Not really, but I want to watch and enjoy a fruitful 2018 season. And if Stearns deems them pawns in a year to WIN. So be it. IN DS I TRUST

[MNBrew]

^^ This. It's easy to get prospect-crazy, but there are two truths that never go away:

 

- Not every prospect pans out.

- Not every prospect can make your MLB team at the same time. Especially when the talent pipeline is strong, there aren't enough spaces on a roster. Therefore, some of your prospects' value is, in essence, as "trade currency."

 

So in the end, the art is in finding the right balance for what your team needs -- and how you're able to fill them adequately first with your own assets, then supplement from other sources -- and financially can support.

 

Lorenzo Cain represents a sort of hitter/player the team doesn't currently have, so he fills one type of need. If the Brewers can or choose to trade other OF assets (for a suitable return) to make room for Cain, I'm all for it.

[Boomer5]

Cain is who Ray is supposed to be.

[Warning Track Power]

Cain is who Ray is supposed to be.

I like the comparison. When Ray was drafted, I envisioned a Kenny Lofton type player. Let's hope he can become either of those guys.

[Boomer5]

Cain is who Ray is supposed to be.

I like the comparison. When Ray was drafted, I envisioned a Kenny Lofton type player. Let's hope he can become either of those guys.

 

I'm not a Ray fan but if they sign Cain to anything more than a two year deal it will tell you what the Brewers think of Ray.

[MrTPlush]

Cain is who Ray is supposed to be.

I like the comparison. When Ray was drafted, I envisioned a Kenny Lofton type player. Let's hope he can become either of those guys.

 

I'm not a Ray fan but if they sign Cain to anything more than a two year deal it will tell you what the Brewers think of Ray.

 

No, it really doesn’t. You don’t depend on prospects, ever. Unless they are major prospects like Brinson I wouldn’t ever assure them a spot. If you can do something to help your club that is a good deal you do it. Not plan for Ray in 2+ years. You can always trade prospects for players.

 

I guess it tells you they don’t view him as a major all star in the near future...but I feel like we shouldn’t be surprised by that.

[Eye Black]

In Rosenthal’s most recent article via The Athletic he reiterates that according to his sources the Brewers are maintaining their interest in Lorenzo Cain (but also notes they are exploring several trade and FA options).

 

Rosenthal then shifts gears into what would be best categorized as pure speculation. He speculates that Brett Phillips could be involved in a trade to bring back either pitching or a 2B. He throws out the idea that when facing LHP the Brewers could have an outfield of Cain in LF, Brinson eventually in CF, with Domingo Santana in RF. In this scenario he says Braun could move to 1B, but admits Braun playing on the infield corner might be “too outside the box”.

[JohnBriggs12]

How is Cain a defense first player? He still bats around .300 each year with 20+ stolen bases. Looks like a well rounded player to me.

 

His bat doesn't play well in RF. He's a career 290/342/421/763 hitter. Even if he maintains that production, his bat doesn't play in a corner. He's cracked double digit HR twice in 5 full seasons with a max of 16. That's all well and good for a plus-defensive CF, but is not at all what you are looking for from a corner OF. Similarly, signing Cain and moving Brinson to RF negatively affects Brinson's value.

 

It's not about creating value for your players it's about putting the team that can win the most on the field. We really don't know how ready Brinson is against major league pitching. If they deal Santana and Broxton and sign Cain, their four OF will be Braun, Cain, Phillips and Brinson with Perez the 5th OF. Cain won't hit as many balls over the fence as Santana, but he won't strike out 150 times either and he'll prevent more runs wherever he plays and it's not like he's completely devoid of power. He could easily hit 18-20 playing in Milwaukee. We do know both he and Phillips won't let routine flyballs drop in front of them repeatedly like Santana does. We also know that signing a big name FA pitcher carries a lot more risk than signing a proven player still in his prime like Cain. So dealing Santana as part of a package for a controllable and reasonably priced pitcher and using FA money you'd otherwise have to throw at a FA pitcher makes a ton of sense.